Was a lack of Ukrainian ammunition to blame for Russia taking Avdiivka?

Published

1 year ago

February 18, 2024

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The fall of Avdiivka has handed Russia its most important battlefield victory since it seized Bakhmut following nine months of gruelling attritional warfare.

But was a lack of Ukrainian ammunition to blame for this battlefield loss, and is this rare Russian success the start of a dangerous new phase of the war?

Avdiivka has been the scene of some of the fiercest and most bloody battles of the war. Russian forces have laid siege to the small Ukrainian city for the past four months.

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The Ukrainian forces have been significantly overmatched by Russian troops, with some reports suggesting that areas of the frontline had 10 times as many Russian soldiers as Ukrainian.

The Russian Air Force has also been playing an increasingly prominent role in the battle, taking advantage of the relatively close proximity of the sanctuary of Russian airspace.

Delivering over 60 bombs a day on to Ukrainian frontline positions eventually rendered the Ukrainian defence of Avdiivka untenable, as the Russian forces have slowly been encircling the city.

Ukraine’s decision to retreat from the frontline city appears justified militarily, but that has not stopped President Zelenskyy and President Biden highlighting Ukraine’s shortage of weapons and the increasingly critical nature of further delays to securing the $60bn of aid currently being delayed by the US Congress.

Although Ukraine will be keen to secure long-term funding support from the US, the critical Ukrainian need at this time is weapons and ammunition.

The EU has approved ongoing funding support for Ukraine, but converting this commitment into ammunition available to frontline soldiers is a challenge.

For the past two years, the majority of the weapons provided to Ukraine have been sourced from the war chests of Western nations.

However, those stocks are now running low, and there are no ready supplies available commercially.

Activating an individual nation’s defence industrial base to design, build and deliver replacement weapons is one of the only ways to meet Ukraine’s future military requirements.

The West has successfully sourced some replacement ammunition – such as artillery shells – but these tend to be used in attritional warfare which favours the larger force, so this is not Ukraine’s priority.

In contrast, Ukraine has seized the initiative in this war through the West providing high-technology, precision strike weapons such as the UK Storm Shadow missile.

This weapon has proven very effective at attacking Russian targets in occupied Ukraine, but stocks are running low – Ukraine want more.

However, this missile is 30 years old, and many of the components are obsolete, so industry cannot easily provide replacement stock.

The West could provide Ukraine with more modern weapons from its inventory or directly from the manufacturers; however, technology is the West’s asymmetric advantage on the battlefield.

There is always a risk that some of the West’s donated weapons will end up on the black market and eventually in the hands of the Russians or Chinese, and the West cannot afford to compromise its own national security.

As a result, the only sustainable way to provide Ukraine with enduring military support is through a coordinated investment in the international defence industrial base.

However, the investment, development, production and testing process all takes time – which Ukraine does not have.

Although Russia has achieved a rare victory by seizing Avdiivka, its military forces suffered very high casualties during the four-month siege of the city.

Offensive action in the winter is difficult; the cold weather is unforgiving, there is limited natural cover from leaves and foliage, and the ground is frozen making it hard to dig foxholes.

So why was Avdiivka such a priority for Russia?

The 24 February marks the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and President Putin will have been very keen to demonstrate battlefield success to boost the moral of its forces.

Putin will also want to demonstrate progress in his “special military operation” in advance of the Russian presidential elections being held next month.

However, most analysts believe that neither Russia nor Ukraine have sufficient military resources to mount a significant offensive anytime soon, and that the coming year could be characterised by a series of smaller indecisive actions along the frontline.

But, if the West fails to address Ukraine’s desperate need for munitions, that will create a window of opportunity for Russian forces, and one that President Putin might be tempted to exploit.

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Israel’s PM tries to get on front foot in propaganda war he knows he is losing

Published

2 hours ago

August 11, 2025

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Israel's PM tries to get on front foot in propaganda war he knows he is losing

Israel’s prime minister added more detail to his deeply controversial plans for military escalation in Gaza at a news conference with foreign media yesterday – despite the condemnation of the UN Security Council, which met in an emergency session and urged him to rethink.

Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of a “fairly short timetable” to establish designated “safe zones” for the one million or so set to be displaced from Gaza City.

He also vowed to seize and dismantle Hamas’s final strongholds there – in the central refugee camps, and in al Mawasi, along Gaza’s southwestern coast.

This, per Netanyahu, is the only way to destroy the terror group, which he claimed “subjugates Gazans, steals their food and shoots them when they try to move to safety”.

Al Mawasi is already home to a significant displaced population, most of whom live in tents cramped up against the Mediterranean Sea, in what is already a designated humanitarian zone.

If members of Hamas live among them, rooting them out will be hugely complicated and will involve significant civilian casualties. If the residents of Gaza City can’t evacuate south to al Mawasi, where will they go?

Netanyahu’s plan is to set up more aid distribution sites through the controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) and to flood Gaza with food.

He claimed his policy was not one of forced starvation – describing particular photos of starving babies as “fake news”, and accusing the media of painting a false picture.

“The only ones who are being deliberately starved in Gaza are our hostages,” the prime minister claimed.

I asked Netanyahu how he would go about preventing the kinds of daily killings taking place at aid distribution points in the months since GHF has been operating.

Doctors Without Borders has described these incidents as deliberately orchestrated.

The prime minister said increasing the amount of aid heading into the Strip was the answer.

“And by the way, a lot of the firing was done by Hamas seeking to have a response by our forces,” he added. “And very often they didn’t, they held back. They stayed their own fire even though their own lives were on the line.”

This was Israel’s prime minister trying to get on the front foot in a propaganda war he acknowledged he was losing. He was loath to admit the presence of famine in Gaza.

It took two questions before he acknowledged there was “deprivation”, even if he would not be drawn on whether his 11-week total blockade of the strip earlier this year had played any role.

He recognises that the appalled response of the international community to the human cost of this war, and the accusations of war crimes and genocide which Israel so vehemently rejects, are a terrible look.

This was his attempt to reclaim the narrative.

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Defiant Netanyahu sets out plan for military escalation in Gaza – and describes photographs of starving babies as ‘fake news’

Published

8 hours ago

August 10, 2025