Dow plummets more than 500 points on heels of hot inflation data

Published

3 months ago

February 22, 2024

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 500 points on Tuesday after hot inflation data for January dimmed hopes that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting interest rates next month.

The Dow, which tumbled as 750 points, slid 1.4% — its worst day since since March 2023. The S&P 500 slipped 1.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.8%.

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 had hit record highs this year before plunging following the release of the Consumer Price Index, which rose a stiffer-than-expected 3.1% on an annual basis.

The figure — which tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services — remains far off from the Fed’s 2% target.

Core CPI a number that excludes volatile food and energy prices increased 0.4% in January, to 3.9%.

The figure, a closely-watched gauge among policymakers for long-term trends, was also higher than what economists anticipated.

“Inflation staying sticky is everyone’s biggest fear and this report is showing its not going down,” Chris Zaccarelli, the chief investment officer of Independent Advisor Alliance, said. “The knee- jerk reaction is for stocks and bonds to sell off. That makes sense. Then we’ll wait for the next report and if that’s lower this will turn out to be just a blip.”

The increase could delay the prospect of three interest rate cuts the Fed anticipates to make in 2024.

Wall Street had initially expected that the first time rates were brought down from their current 22-year high would be in March.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said after the latest policy meeting that “it’s not likely that this committee will reach that level of confidence in time for the March meeting.”

The CME FedWatch Tool shows that a May rate is also largely off the table.

The probability of a May rate cut slumped from 52.2% to 36.6% on Monday while the chance of a slash in June now stands at 78.6%, down from 92.2%.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who is voting on the Federal Open Market Committees policy decisions this year, told CNN that he’s anticipating the first of three cuts to take place in the fourth quarter — weeks after the mid-year slowdown Wall Street is now expecting.

By the end of the year, inflation will be near “the lower twos,” he said.

This isnt a TikTok video or something like that where you get trends happening so fast. It takes a while for the decisions of individual decisions and millions of people to come together and to start to create trends, he told CNN.

At the same time, theres a significant risk if the Fed leaves interest rates where they currently are for too long, Bostic warned.

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He also noted how difficult it’s been to tamp down inflation as the job market has remained surprisingly strong.

Januarys monthly jobs report added a blockbuster 353,000 new jobs to the economy — nearly double analysts’ expectations.

Although inflation appears to be slowing, the economy remains Americans overall top concern, cited by 22% of poll respondents, as they have struggled with inflation and other aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last month.

Since taking office, Biden has made a pitch for lower supermarket prices, pushed drug makers to lower insulin costs, hotel chains to reduce fees and tried to diversify the meat-packing industry after beef prices skyrocketed in the aftermath of the pandemic.

Alfredo Ortiz, president and CEO of Job Creators Network, told The Post in a statement that “inflation remains historically high and is nothing to cheer about.”

“Talk to any American going to the grocery store, hardware store or pharmacy, and they’ll tell you prices continue to rise at a painful rate.”

A December 2023 report on shrinkflation — when businesses cut product sizes but keep prices the same — found that household paper products were 34.9% more expensive per unit than they were in January 2019, with about 10.3% of the increase due to producers shrinking the sizes of rolls and packages.

Researchers also found that the price of snacks like Oreos and Doritos had gone up 26.4% over the same period, with shrinking portions accounting for 9.8% percent of the increase.

Business

Post Office spin doctor said he was in a ‘corporate cover up’ – years before apology issued to Horizon victims

Published

3 hours ago

May 14, 2024

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Post Office spin doctor said he was in a 'corporate cover up' - years before apology issued to Horizon victims

A former Post Office communications director told fellow employees he was at “the heart of a corporate cover-up”, at the same time as sub-postmaster prosecutions were taking place and years before an apology was made to victims.

The inquiry into faulty Horizon software, and the associated prosecution of 700 sub-postmasters for theft and false accounting, is taking place to establish a clear account of the implementation and failure of the Fujitsu created software.

As well as the wrongful convictions many more sub-postmasters racked up large debts, lost homes, livelihoods, and reputations as they borrowed heavily to plug Horizon’s incorrectly generated shortfalls in their Post Office branches.

The issue has received renewed attention after the January airing of ITV drama Mr Bates v The Post Office.

An email presented to the inquiry on Tuesday showed the Post Office’s former group communications and corporate affairs director Mark Davies believed he was part of a cover-up and conspiracy.

“It’s fascinating to be part of a conspiracy. To be at the heart of a corporate cover-up,” Mr Davies said in an email to Post Office communications staff, a legal team member, and another director.

At the time the email was sent, in January 2015, the Post Office was prosecuting sub-postmasters using data from Horizon.

It wasn’t until 2019 that an apology was issued to sub-postmasters as part of their successful High Court challenge of Horizon and related prosecutions.

‘Blaming the journalists’

Despite this, it was known at the time that branch accounts could be accessed and altered remotely by the maker Fujitsu or by the Post Office IT helpdesk.

Mr Davies, appearing at the inquiry, said he thought this remote access was only used once when asked why one of his employees said the idea of remote access was “totally loony” and a “conspiracy theory”.

Emails sent by him were consistently “blaming the journalists” for asking questions about Horizon failings, a barrister for the inquiry Julian Blake said.

It was a characterisation accepted by Mr Davies, who said: “With the benefit of hindsight, they absolutely, some of [the emails] look ludicrous, I agree.”

A report into Horizon flaws conducted by forensic accountants Second Sight commissioned by Post Office had identified bugs but Mr Davies and his team viewed its authors as lacking independence.

Second Sight were “colluding” with sub-postmasters, Mr Davies said in an email to the Post Office’s then chief executive Paula Vennells.

Various emails shown to Mr Davies on Tuesday described journalists and Second Sight as “attackers” and media reports as “sloppy”.

Additional reporting by Evan Dale.

Business

Labour leader reassures union bosses in row over workers’ rights plans – but it’s not over yet

Published

3 hours ago

May 14, 2024

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Labour leader reassures union bosses in row over workers' rights plans – but it's not over yet

Sir Keir Starmer has moved to reassure trade union bosses about his party’s plans to strengthen workers’ rights, after he was accused of watering them down.

The party has promised a radical shake-up for workers if they win office – including banning zero hours contracts, employment rights from day one, and ending the practice of “fire and rehire”.

The new deal for working people was billed as the biggest advance in workers’ rights for decades when first unveiled by Angela Rayner in 2021.

The party made some changes last summer, but union bosses claimed a new document circulated to them last week was an attempt to row back further on these commitments.

Sharon Graham, the general secretary of the Unite union, called the new document – which has not been made public – a “betrayal” and “unrecognisable” from the original plans.

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With tensions running high, bosses of trade unions affiliated to Labour met with Sir Keir, deputy leader Angela Rayner and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves and agreed to scrap the new draft.

In a joint statement they said: “Labour and the affiliated unions had a constructive discussion today. Together we have reiterated Labour’s full commitment to the new deal for working people as agreed in July.

“We will continue to work together at pace on how a Labour government would implement it in legislation.”

Union sources who feared the Labour leadership were bowing to pressure from big business ahead of the election, claimed the party had been talked into a retreat.

After three hours at Labour’s south London headquarters – although it is understood Sir Keir was not there for the whole meeting – Ms Graham said Labour’s position had changed.

She told Sky News: “It was constructive. I think it was really important to have the workers’ voices heard in the meeting itself, because we wanted to reaffirm our position that the New Deal for Working People must be implemented.

“We’ve got a really good position where that has been recommitted to. We’re meeting again in three weeks’ time after we put some information together to discuss a new document. It was a crunch meeting. It was a red line meeting. But I think we’ve got there.” She added: “I think it [Labour’s position] has changed”.

The new deal had originally come with a promise that an “employment rights bill” to legislate for it would be introduced within 100 days of winning power, although this is now seen as unrealistic.

Some changes were agreed last summer at the national policy forum, a gathering of party officials, MPs and union leaders, which the Unite boss claimed was an attempt to “curry favour with big business”.

The Financial Times reported last week that a new draft included even more business-friendly language on fire and rehire – essentially sacking workers and hiring them back on less favourable terms.

The paper reported that it contained a line about the importance of allowing businesses to “restructure to remain viable and preserve their workforce when there is genuinely no alternative”.

It was also claimed that zero hours contracts would not be completely banned because some people choose to have them – but give workers rights to a contract reflecting their usual work pattern.

Labour has also promised to bring in fair pay agreements for social care workers, which a right-wing research group Policy Exchange claimed could add £225 to the average council tax bill.

Sir Keir’s party has already pruned back their 2021 plans to invest £28bn in green energy, after a protracted battle within the party.

Union leaders will be holding Sir Keir and his shadow chancellors’ feet to the fire to ensure another of his party’s more radical dividing lines does not go the same way, under the glare of an election campaign.

But despite the smiles today, this is a row delayed, with more wrangling to be done.

Politics

Tory MPs share despair at PM’s top team over Commons vote in leaked WhatsApps

Published

3 hours ago

May 14, 2024

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Tory MPs share despair at PM's top team over Commons vote in leaked WhatsApps

The frustration and despair of Tory MPs felt towards Rishi Sunak’s top team is revealed in leaked WhatsApp messages obtained by Sky News.

One MP called the parliamentary operation a “shitshow” and “crazy”, while another said they were “at a loss” at the handling of a crunch Monday night vote on excluding MPs arrested on suspicion of serious sexual or violent offences.

They echo comments Tory MPs have made privately to Sky News.

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There is fury today among Tory MPs after most found themselves on the losing side of a vote on a Lib Dem and Labour motion to exclude any MP arrested for a serious offence from the parliamentary estate, which would bring Westminster into line with many other workplaces.

The bulk of Tory MPs backed a different plan – to exclude MPs at the point of charge, arguing that MPs could easily become the target of vexatious complaints.

It was a free vote, which meant MPs did not have to vote on party lines.

However, in a move that baffled Conservative MPs, when the Commons came to vote to overturn the opposition motion, the Tory whips did not put up “tellers” – vote counters – and so it could not be held, meaning the opposition motion passed.

This often happens because of disorganisation or confusion about events in the chamber, and often marks a failing of either the Tory whips or the Commons leader’s office – figures appointed by Mr Sunak.

The WhatsApps show a government minister – Anne Marie Trevelyan – summoning Tories after initially losing the Lib Dem vote: “Anyone on estate who didn’t vote on amendment O please return asap! Lost amend by one vote. Otherwise the decision is arrest Not charge.”

Other Tories – Jill Mortimer and Jack Brereton – add weight to the appeal to vote down the Lib Dem motion, as does minister Greg Hands.

Brendan Clarke-Smith calls the Lib Dem plan to exclude MPs from parliament on arrest “an attack on basic civil liberties”.

However, Cambridgeshire MP Anthony Browne suddenly announces three minutes later: “Division off!”

There is incredulity with Pauline Latham demanding to know what has happened, adding: “This is crazy.”

Miriam Cates explains to colleagues there were no tellers, Angela Richardson says “what a shitshow!”, Andrea Leadsom says “A sad day”. Ms Cates says: “I am completely at a loss to understand why those of us who shouted ‘no’ were not told that there were no tellers” – indicating frustration with Mr Sunak’s parliamentary operation.

Mr Clarke-Smith says: “Angela better hope her interview goes well then. Unbelievable.” This is a reference to Angela Rayner, who is currently under police investigation and could be interviewed under caution in coming weeks. She denies all allegations and has not been arrested and Labour says this will not happen, but even if she were, she would not be excluded because the reason for arrest is unlikely to pass the serious offence test.

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The dialogue concludes with Mr Brereton saying: “We’re all going to be banned from the estate now…” and Ms Cates saying, “Watch the vexatious complaints roll in…”

One Tory said there was an “end of days vibe” in the Tory Party and the messages were evidence of a “meltdown” because the Tory whips can’t handle simple votes.

They too call it a “shitshow”.