What could this years US presidential election mean for the world?
The second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine comes as America prepares for a crucial election and while funding for a Ukrainian victory remains blocked in a divided Congress.
As our own frontline eyewitness reporting shows, Vladimir Putin has the upper hand.
Western leaders have repeatedly warned that Putin won’t stop at Ukraine given the chance. We are reminded that even on the eve of his invasion two years ago, Putin insisted he would not move into Ukraine.
Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin ‘may achieve war goal’
So what might happen in the months and years ahead?
Here are two scenarios. Far-fetched? It depends if the rhetoric is accurate.
Scenario one:
It’s March 2025 and a few weeks since Donald Trump was inaugurated as America’s 47th president.
Donald Trump
Air Force One has just touched down in Istanbul where Turkey is hosting the ‘Donbas Peace Summit’ where an agreement will be signed by Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy.
At the Topkapi Palace overlooking the Bosporus River, the stage is set for a Trump-brokered ‘peace’ treaty.
The treaty comes three months after Ukraine’s weapon supply ran completely dry following an American refusal to pass funding bills and a breakdown in European unity.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Latvia: Conscription could help NATO
This Istanbul moment is the delivery of President Trump’s campaign pledge to ‘solve the Ukraine war in a day’.
It had taken longer than a day but Zelenskyy had been cornered through a lack of Western weapons.
Closed-door meetings between Trump administration officials and the Kremlin (the contents of which have not been revealed) sealed the deal: Ukraine agreed to cede the whole of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine to an expanded Russian Federation.
Inside the Topkapi Palace, Zelenskyy first took to the stage, stony-faced and wearing a suit rather than his army fatigues for the first time since the Russian invasion three years earlier.
He signed the document and left the room without acknowledging President Trump who was presiding over the moment.
(Pic: Reuters)
Minutes later, separately, a beaming President Putin emerged, signed the document and shook the American president’s hand.
Three years later in the spring of 2028, the Russian army which had been massing on Europe’s eastern flank invaded Latvia and Estonia.
The two European nations fell fast.
NATO, abandoned by Trump’s America a year earlier, was unable to defend them.
By the summer of 2029, Chinese President Xi Jinping launches an air and maritime invasion of Taiwan.
Read more from Sky News:
Who is Alexei Navalny’s wife Yulia?
Donald Trump breaks silence on Alexei Navalny’s death
What remains of Russian opposition?
Scenario two:
March 2025. Air Force One landed at Kyiv international airport. Joe Biden, recently re-elected as America’s President, descended the steps of the plane with a rare spring in his careful step.
(Pic: AP)
On the tarmac, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy, in a suit, embraced him. Some observers said they could see tears in his eyes.
A week earlier, Russian President Putin had withdrawn the last of his forces from eastern Ukraine after a bitter winter battle in which an estimated 40,000 soldiers on both sides had been killed.
Putin’s army had been decimated after a massive increase of weapons from Europe and the United States.
The consequence of a war which had lasted three years was the near-total degradation of the Russian military.
It had been compounded by a surprise thaw in US-China relations and Beijing’s subsequent abandonment of Moscow.
(Pic: Reuters)
A dramatic shift in the geopolitics of the Middle East also helped to seal Russia’s fate.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s resignation and subsequent conviction in the 7 October Inquiry of September 2024 had paved the way for the Israeli-Saudi normalisation deal.
This isolated Iran and dented Tehran’s relations with Moscow.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Ukraine needs ‘2.5 million shells’
Far-fetched then? Quite possibly. Donald Trump’s first presidency showed that his fickle unpredictability often cancelled out his wild rhetoric.
And a second Biden term is full of profound unknowns. Republican or Democrat, America appears far less engaged than it once was.
In a world of such discombobulating flux, and where global geopolitics is all inextricably linked, don’t rule anything out.
Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy has met Israel’s prime minister in an effort to secure a ceasefire deal in Gaza before the president-elect takes office on 20 January.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed details of the meeting with Steve Witkoff on Saturday, adding that the head of the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency has been deployed to Qatar in order to “advance” talks.
It was not immediately clear when David Barnea would travel to Doha for the latest round of indirect discussions between Israel and Hamas.
Earlier on Saturday, an Israeli official said some progress had been made, mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the United States, to reach a deal in Gaza.
Ronen Bar (left), director of Israel’s security agency, and David Barnea (right), head of Mossad, at a ceremony marking the 7 October Hamas attack. File pic: Reuters
The mediators are making renewed efforts to halt fighting in Gaza and free the remaining Israeli hostages held there before Mr Trump takes office.
A deal would also involve the release of some Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.
Families of Israeli hostages welcomed Mr Netanyahu’s decision to dispatch the officials, with the Hostages and Missing Families Forum Headquarters describing it as a “historic opportunity”.
Mr Witkoff arrived in Doha on Friday and met the Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s foreign ministry said.
Egyptian and Qatari mediators received reassurances from Mr Witkoff that the US would continue to work towards a fair deal to end the war soon, Egyptian security sources said, though no further details were released.
Read more from Sky News:
Why does Donald Trump want Greenland?
Trump says Vladimir Putin wants to meet
A guide to Donald Trump’s inauguration
Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed across its borders in October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures.
Families of the roughly 100 hostages still held in Gaza are pressing Mr Netanyahu to reach a deal to bring their loved ones home.
Since then, more than 46,000 people have been killed in Gaza, according to Palestinian health officials, with much of the area destroyed and gripped by a humanitarian crisis, with most of its population displaced.
Pope Francis has been honoured with America’s highest civilian award by President Joe Biden, who has described the pontiff as “a light of faith, hope, and love that shines brightly across the world”.
It is the first time Mr Biden, 82, has given the Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction during his four years in office.
In a statement, the White House said the award is “presented to individuals who have made exemplary contributions to the prosperity, values, or security of the United States, world peace, or other significant societal, public or private endeavours”.
Mr Biden had been scheduled to present the medal to Pope Francis, 88, in person on Saturday in Rome on what was to be the final overseas trip of his presidency. But the president cancelled his visit to monitor the California wildfires.
The White House said Mr Biden bestowed the award during a phone call in which they also discussed efforts to promote peace and alleviate suffering around the world.
President Joe Biden presented Bono with the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Pic: AP
Denzel Washington was also recognised. Pic: AP
Michael J Fox was bestowed with the honour. Pic: AP
The award can be presented with or without distinction.
Mr Biden presented the medal of freedom – without distinction – on 5 January to several people including fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton, humanitarian and U2 singer Bono, fashion designer Ralph Lauren and actors Michael J Fox and Denzel Washington.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘I could have beaten Trump’
Read more from Sky News:
Gay men can become priests
Search widened for missing sisters
Carrie Johnson left ‘struggling to breathe’
Mr Biden himself is a recipient of the award with distinction, recognised when he was vice president by then president Barack Obama in a surprise ceremony eight years ago.
Barack Obama presented Joe Biden with the Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction in 2017. File pic: AP
The citation for the pope’s honour said his “mission of serving the poor has never ceased”.
“A loving pastor, he joyfully answers children’s questions about God. A challenging teacher, he commands us to fight for peace and protect the planet. A welcoming leader, he reaches out to different faiths,” it added.
Ukraine has captured two North Korean soldiers fighting in Russia’s Kursk region, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said.
The injured pair are now in Kyiv and communicating with the Security Service of Ukraine, the country’s domestic intelligence agency, he said.
Ukrainian special forces and paratroopers captured the North Koreans, Mr Zelenskyy said in a post on X.
“As with all prisoners of war, these two North Korean soldiers are receiving the necessary medical assistance,” he said.
“I have instructed the Security Service of Ukraine to grant journalists access to these prisoners.
“The world needs to know the truth about what is happening.”
Mr Zelenskyy said capturing the soldiers alive was “not easy”. He also claimed Russian and North Korean forces fighting in Kursk have tried to conceal the presence of North Korean soldiers, including by killing wounded comrades on the battlefield to avoid their capture and interrogation by Ukraine.
The post included images of the two men – one with a bandage around his jaw and the other around both hands and wrists – and what appeared to be a Russian military document.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Ukrainian drone targets Kursk soldiers
Ukraine’s security service SBU on Saturday provided further details.
It said one of those detained had no documents at all, while the other had been carrying a Russian military ID card in the name of a man from Tuva, a Russian region bordering Mongolia.
“The prisoners do not speak Ukrainian, English or Russian, so communication with them takes place through Korean translators in cooperation with South Korean intelligence,” a statement said.
One of the soldiers claimed he had been told he was going to Russia for training, rather than to fight against Ukraine, according to the SBU.
The agency added both men are being provided with medical care in line with the Geneva Conventions, and investigated “in cooperation with South Korean intelligence”.
Read more:
Ukraine launches new offensive in Russia’s Kursk region
Russia and Ukraine swap at least 300 prisoners of war
North Korean regular troops entered the war on Russia’s side in October, according to Ukraine and its Western allies.
US, South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence assessments suggest up to 12,000 North Korean combat troops have been sent by Pyongyang under a pact with Moscow.
They believe North Korea has also been supplying Russia with vast quantities of artillery shells.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports9 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway