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The second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine comes as America prepares for a crucial election and while funding for a Ukrainian victory remains blocked in a divided Congress.

As our own frontline eyewitness reporting shows, Vladimir Putin has the upper hand.

Western leaders have repeatedly warned that Putin won’t stop at Ukraine given the chance. We are reminded that even on the eve of his invasion two years ago, Putin insisted he would not move into Ukraine.

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin ‘may achieve war goal’

So what might happen in the months and years ahead?

Here are two scenarios. Far-fetched? It depends if the rhetoric is accurate.

Scenario one:

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It’s March 2025 and a few weeks since Donald Trump was inaugurated as America’s 47th president.

Donald Trump
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Donald Trump

Air Force One has just touched down in Istanbul where Turkey is hosting the ‘Donbas Peace Summit’ where an agreement will be signed by Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy.

At the Topkapi Palace overlooking the Bosporus River, the stage is set for a Trump-brokered ‘peace’ treaty.

The treaty comes three months after Ukraine’s weapon supply ran completely dry following an American refusal to pass funding bills and a breakdown in European unity.

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Latvia: Conscription could help NATO

This Istanbul moment is the delivery of President Trump’s campaign pledge to ‘solve the Ukraine war in a day’.

It had taken longer than a day but Zelenskyy had been cornered through a lack of Western weapons.

Closed-door meetings between Trump administration officials and the Kremlin (the contents of which have not been revealed) sealed the deal: Ukraine agreed to cede the whole of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine to an expanded Russian Federation.

Inside the Topkapi Palace, Zelenskyy first took to the stage, stony-faced and wearing a suit rather than his army fatigues for the first time since the Russian invasion three years earlier.

He signed the document and left the room without acknowledging President Trump who was presiding over the moment.

(Pic: Reuters)
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(Pic: Reuters)

Minutes later, separately, a beaming President Putin emerged, signed the document and shook the American president’s hand.

Three years later in the spring of 2028, the Russian army which had been massing on Europe’s eastern flank invaded Latvia and Estonia.

The two European nations fell fast.

NATO, abandoned by Trump’s America a year earlier, was unable to defend them.

By the summer of 2029, Chinese President Xi Jinping launches an air and maritime invasion of Taiwan.

Read more from Sky News:
Who is Alexei Navalny’s wife Yulia?
Donald Trump breaks silence on Alexei Navalny’s death

What remains of Russian opposition?

Scenario two:

March 2025. Air Force One landed at Kyiv international airport. Joe Biden, recently re-elected as America’s President, descended the steps of the plane with a rare spring in his careful step.

President Joe Biden speaks about his meeting with Alexei Navalny's widow Yulia Navalnaya and daughter Dasha, in San Francisco, Feb. 22, 2024. The U.S. government is hitting Russia with the largest tranche of financial penalties imposed on Moscow since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. They target roughly 600 people and firms from Russia to China to the United Arab Emirates. The sanctions are timed to the second anniversary of the invasion, and in response to the death of Navalny. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)
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(Pic: AP)

On the tarmac, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy, in a suit, embraced him. Some observers said they could see tears in his eyes.

A week earlier, Russian President Putin had withdrawn the last of his forces from eastern Ukraine after a bitter winter battle in which an estimated 40,000 soldiers on both sides had been killed.

Putin’s army had been decimated after a massive increase of weapons from Europe and the United States.

The consequence of a war which had lasted three years was the near-total degradation of the Russian military.

It had been compounded by a surprise thaw in US-China relations and Beijing’s subsequent abandonment of Moscow.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy meets with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (not pictured) during the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, Germany February 17, 2024. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/Pool TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
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(Pic: Reuters)

A dramatic shift in the geopolitics of the Middle East also helped to seal Russia’s fate.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s resignation and subsequent conviction in the 7 October Inquiry of September 2024 had paved the way for the Israeli-Saudi normalisation deal.

This isolated Iran and dented Tehran’s relations with Moscow.

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Ukraine needs ‘2.5 million shells’

Far-fetched then? Quite possibly. Donald Trump’s first presidency showed that his fickle unpredictability often cancelled out his wild rhetoric.

And a second Biden term is full of profound unknowns. Republican or Democrat, America appears far less engaged than it once was.

In a world of such discombobulating flux, and where global geopolitics is all inextricably linked, don’t rule anything out.

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Iran’s response to Israeli strikes a ‘matter of principle’, ambassador to UK says

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Iran's response to Israeli strikes a 'matter of principle', ambassador to UK says

Iran’s response to Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities is “self-defence” and a “matter of principle”, the Iranian ambassador to the UK has told Sky News.

Speaking exclusively to The World With Yalda Hakim, Seyed Ali Mousavi said the “barbaric Israeli regime” is “violating international law” – describing Israel’s actions in recent days as “an act of aggression against the Iranian people”.

The conflict between Israel and Iran – once played out in a series of proxy wars – has escalated in the past three days.

Follow Israel-Iran conflict live

Sky's Yalda Hakim spoke to Iran's ambassador to the UK, Seyed Ali Mousavi.
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Sky’s Yalda Hakim spoke to Iran’s ambassador to the UK, Seyed Ali Mousavi

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Israel-Iran: How the conflict escalated

On Friday morning, explosions hit Tehran as Israel carried out a major attack on its top army leaders, nuclear sites, and nuclear scientists.

Iran threatened “severe punishment” and quickly retaliated with a wave of missiles.

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Missile aftermath in Israel

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Israeli missile hits warehouse in Iranian city

When questioned about whether Iran could continue fighting Israel, the Iranian ambassador told Yalda Hakim that “it is a matter of principle”.

He said: “This is about self-defence, there is no doubt about it.

“We are a responsible member state of the UN and we do all activities according to our international obligations.

“Any activities are only in the framework of self-defence.”

Damage from an Iranian missile attack to a building in Bat Yam, Israel. Pic: Reuters
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Damage from an Iranian missile attack to a building in Bat Yam, Israel. Pic: Reuters

Explosions over Jerusalem
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Explosions over Jerusalem on Sunday

He added that his country would “do our best to preserve our territorial integrity”, and that “with the help of God”, Iran will “materialise endeavours concretely against our enemy – the Israeli regime”.

Mr Mousavi also told Hakim that Iran’s nuclear activities are “monitored”, and that recent comments by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were “politically motivated”.

Read more here:
How conflict between Israel and Iran unfolded
UK advises against all travel to Israel
Explosions over Jerusalem as missiles ‘detected’ by IDF

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Missiles have also been seen over Tel Aviv

The UN nuclear watchdog’s board of governors found Iran was not complying with its nuclear obligations for the first time in 20 years.

Iran said it has “always adhered” to the safeguarding obligations laid down by the watchdog.

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Iranian ambassador reacts to strikes – full interview

Announcing Operation Rising Lion on Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Iran had recently taken steps to weaponise enriched uranium, which could be used to make nuclear weapons.

But Mr Mousavi stressed that Iran’s “peaceful activities” at its “nuclear fields” were only for the “generation of electricity, and other peaceful” things.

Iran was due to continue its round of negotiations with the US in Muscat – however, this was cancelled, given recent tensions.

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UK government advises against all travel to Israel

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UK government advises against all travel to Israel

The government is warning people not to travel to Israel under any circumstances, as the country’s missile exchange with Iran shows no sign of abating.

On Friday, the Foreign Office warned against “all but essential travel” to most of Israel.

The areas around Gaza, the West Bank and the Golan Heights were already classed as red zones, with warnings to avoid travel to these areas.

But the government has now updated the warning for the remainder of the country to red.

Follow live: Tehran and Israel exchange strikes

This puts Israel on the same level as Iran, and the change of advice is also likely to impact travel insurance.

However, with Israel’s airspace closed, it is unlikely many people will be attempting the journey, and Israel’s national airline El Al has announced it is cancelling flights to and from many European cities, as well as Tokyo and Moscow, until 23 June.

The change in travel advice comes after a second night of ballistic missile barrages from Iran following Israel’s attack in the early hours of Friday morning.

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An eight-storey residential building in Tel Aviv was hit by a missile last night.

On Sunday morning, Israel’s health ministry said 12 people had been killed over the past day, taking the total since Friday to 15. It also said 385 people had arrived at hospital with injuries overnight.

Iran has not provided a total number of deaths or overall casualties, but has claimed dozens have been killed.

Iran’s health minister has said most of those injured and killed in Israeli strikes were civilians. According to comments carried by news agency IRNA, he said the majority were women and children.

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The chancellor said UK forces could “potentially” be used to help defend Israel.

Read more:
UK military could ‘potentially’ be used to defend Israel
Nuclear threat wasn’t the only reason Israel attacked Iran
What are Iran’s military capabilities

What is the UK doing?

The UK government is sending military assets, including fighter jets, to the Middle East.

While the prime minister would not confirm to reporters that UK forces could be used to defend Israel from future Iranian attacks, the chancellor told Sky News earlier that the government is “not ruling anything out”.

Speaking to Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips, Rachel Reeves said sending military assets to the Middle East “does not mean that we are at war”, and emphasised that “we have not been involved in these strikes or this conflict”.

“But we do have important assets in the region,” she continued. “And it is right that we send jets to protect them. And that’s what we’ve done. It’s a precautionary move, and at the same time, we are urging de-escalation.”

Pushed on the question of what the UK would do if Israel asked for support with its operations, the chancellor replied: “I’m not going to rule anything out at this stage. It’s a fast-moving situation, a very volatile situation. But we don’t want to see escalation.”

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Helicopter carrying Hindu pilgrims crashes in India, killing seven people

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Helicopter carrying Hindu pilgrims crashes in India, killing seven people

A helicopter carrying Hindu pilgrims has crashed in India, killing seven people on board.

The accident happened within minutes of the helicopter taking off, officials said, on what should have been a 10-minute flight.

The helicopter was flying to Guptkashi, a prominent Hindu pilgrimage site in the Himalayas, from Kedarnath temple town in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand.

It comes three days after an Air India flight crashed less than a minute after taking off from Ahmedabad airport in northwestern India, killing at least 270 people.

The helicopter, which was operated by private helicopter service Aryan Aviation, went down in a forested area several miles from the Kedarnath pilgrimage route at around 5.30am local time.

Officials said the crash was believed to have been caused by poor weather conditions.

Authorities say they have launched a search and rescue operation and are expected to review operational protocols for flights in the region.

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The dead include the pilot and pilgrims from the neighbouring state of Uttar Pradesh and western states of Maharashtra and Gujarat, according to officials. The bodies were badly burned in a fire that followed the crash, they said.

Smoke and debris at the crash site. Pic: Reuters
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Smoke and debris at the site. Pic: Reuters

Tens of thousands of pilgrims visit Kedarnath, which is home to one of the four most sacred Hindu temple shrines, each summer. Many use helicopter services due to the difficult mountainous terrain.

Helicopter mishaps are not uncommon in the region, where sudden weather changes and high-altitude flying conditions can pose risks.

Earlier this month, a helicopter operating in the Kedarnath Valley made an emergency landing shortly after taking off on a highway due to a technical fault. The pilot was injured but all five passengers on board were unharmed.

In May, a helicopter crashed in Uttarkashi district, killing six people, including the pilot. One person survived.

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