Who’s under pressure in 2024? Kalen DeBoer follows a legend and James Franklin looks to break through
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Next season, the competitive landscape of college football will undergo some massive shifts. More teams than ever will have a shot to make a playoff appearance, but they’ll also be dealing with greater in-conference competition. Everybody in the sport will have more opportunities to look good — and bad.
So, we asked our staffers which coaches and players — transfers and non-transfers — will have the most to prove during the surely chaotic upcoming season. Here’s what they had to say.
What coach has the most to prove in 2024?
Kalen DeBoer, Alabama
DeBoer just took Washington to the national title game in only his second year — two seasons after the team went 4-8 — so this designation feels a bit unfair, but so are Alabama’s expectations after Nick Saban’s historic tenure. If the College Football Playoff remained at four teams, DeBoer could miss them during a transition year and be given somewhat of a pass. But Alabama expects to be part of the 12-team field every year, and if DeBoer falls short, the pressure and comparisons to Saban will reach nauseating levels in Tuscaloosa. — Adam Rittenberg
James Franklin, Penn State
Franklin’s tenure in State College has featured a lot of winning. He picked up where Bill O’Brien left off in compiling four 11-win seasons. However, in the Nittany Lions’ most prominent games under Franklin, there hasn’t been a lot of winning. With the College Football Playoff expanding from four to 12, Penn State has a great opportunity to break through with both Michigan and Oregon not on the schedule and Ohio State coming to Beaver Stadium in 2024. It just needs to find a way to close out against the better teams on the schedule. — Blake Baumgartner
Mack Brown, North Carolina
Brown is in the Hall of Fame, is one of just three active coaches with a national championship and has taken UNC to five straight bowl games, something the program hadn’t done since Brown’s last tenure there in the late 1990s, so perhaps he doesn’t really have all that much to prove. But when Brown returned to UNC in 2019, it was with the intent to take the Heels from a regular bowl team to a regular playoff contender. At times, he’s seemed close, but despite having two extremely talented quarterbacks in Sam Howell and Drake Maye, UNC still seems stuck on the margins. Brown brought in Geoff Collins this offseason as his third defensive coordinator, and he’ll turn to either veteran Max Johnson or sophomore Conner Harrell to replace Maye. Brown will be 73 when the season kicks off, and while age doesn’t seem to be slowing him down, the window to transform UNC into a real playoff threat won’t be open forever, and there’s certainly those who’ll wonder if he already missed his best chance with Maye. — David Hale
Billy Napier, Florida
In two years with the Gators, Napier is 11-14 and has not come close to beating rival Georgia, which means Florida hasn’t come close to challenging for the SEC East title. How much longer can that go on? Napier enters a crucial Year 3 with perhaps the most difficult schedule in the country, opening against rival Miami while also having to play Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss and Texas in the SEC. He has to prove the program is headed in the right direction to have any shot at convincing the fan base he’s the right coach for the job. — Andrea Adelson
Lincoln Riley, USC
I was going to say Chip Kelly at UCLA, but that all changed when Kelly bolted Westwood to call offensive plays at Ohio State for another guy who has some heat on him, Ryan Day. So I’ll stay on the West Coast with Riley, who enters his third season at USC still looking for a College Football Playoff appearance and/or conference title. He’s also facing life without former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams and brought in a new defensive coordinator, D’Anton Lynn, to replace Alex Grinch after the Trojans finished 121st nationally in scoring defense (34.4 points per game) in 2023. It’s premature to suggest Riley is on the cusp of losing his job after just two seasons at USC. But coming off a disappointing 8-5 finish and the playoff expanding to 12 teams in 2024, he needs to make a strong comeback in the new-look Big Ten, or the restlessness will ratchet up considerably in Year 4. — Chris Low
Ryan Day, Ohio State
Few schools have signed a more high-upside set of transfers (Alabama safety Caleb Downs, Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins, quarterbacks Will Howard for the present and Julian Sayin for the future) than Ohio State. After coming up just short of their goals the past couple of years, Day and the Buckeyes appear to be going all-in this year as Michigan undergoes massive turnover. The odds of success are high, but the perils of another year of missed expectations could be awfully damning. — Bill Connelly
What player has the most to prove in 2024?
Wisconsin QB Tyler Van Dyke
When Van Dyke won ACC Rookie of the Year honors in 2021 at Miami, the expectation was that he would be long gone to the NFL by now. But after two sometimes solid, sometimes choppy seasons with different coordinators under coach Mario Cristobal, Van Dyke entered the portal and sought a fresh start. He lands at Wisconsin, which enters Year 2 of its Air Raid-style offense under coordinator Phil Longo after finishing 91st nationally in scoring and 69th in passing last season. If Van Dyke can be the quarterback who makes the Air Raid go in Madison, he will not only boost his NFL chances, but bring Wisconsin closer to the 12-team CFP mix. — Rittenberg
Clemson QB Cade Klubnik
Fairly or not, DJ Uiagalelei carried the bulk of the blame for Clemson’s playoff absences in 2021 and 2022, so Tigers fans were eager to turn the page to Klubnik last season. The results, however, looked a lot more like the DJU era than the Trevor Lawrence era. Klubnik finished the season completing 64% of his throws with 19 TDs and nine interceptions to go with a Total QBR of 55, good for 11th out of 12 qualified ACC QBs. He flashed potential at times, but made frustrating decisions in losses to Duke, Florida State and NC State that overshadowed the intermittent success. Dabo Swinney brought in Matt Luke to rebuild the O-line, and Klubnik is entering his second year with offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. The clock feels like it’s ticking on Klubnik’s chances to prove he’s Clemson’s next star quarterback — and it may be ticking on the Tigers’ chances to return to the playoff, too. — Hale
Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava
The good news for Iamaleava is that he certainly appears to have all the tools to be a difference-maker at quarterback and accounted for four touchdowns in his first start last season in Tennessee’s 35-0 victory over Iowa in the Citrus Bowl. But from the time Iamaleava signed with the Vols, he’s been under a bright spotlight — from the reported $8 million NIL deal he signed, to being hailed as the quarterback that would vault the Vols back into championship contention, to being at the center of the recent NCAA investigation into Tennessee’s program. No player since Peyton Manning has walked onto Tennessee’s campus with this much pressure to perform at an elite level. — Low
Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel
Expectations are going to be sky-high for the Ducks, who are still smarting about last season’s two losses to Washington and their College Football Playoff near miss. Oregon will bring a potent offense (531.4 YPG in 2023, second in the FBS) as it moves to the Big Ten. The faithful out in Eugene will be pinning their collective hopes on Gabriel, who led the Big 12 in passing yards (3,660) and touchdowns (30) last year. — Baumgartner
LSU OLB Harold Perkins Jr.
One of the biggest revelations of 2022 was one of the biggest disappointments of 2023, relatively speaking. After recording 13.5 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles in only 498 snaps as a freshman, Perkins produced 15, 5.5 and three, respectively, in 746 snaps last season. Good? Obviously. But not quite as transcendent. If he rediscovers the per-snap dominance that he had in 2022 under aggressive new coordinator Blake Baker, that alone could transform LSU’s defense. — Connelly
Which transfer has the most to prove in 2024?
Ohio State QB Will Howard
No national contending team made a more aggressive offseason personnel push than Ohio State, which will seek its first CFP championship in a decade. Elite quarterback play has been the standard for most of Day’s tenure, though, and Howard must reach that level after a four-year run at Kansas State that included a Big 12 title and good production both as a passer and a runner, but also two seasons with 10 interceptions. Howard will have the nation’s best running back tandem (TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins) and a gifted wide receiver group at his disposal. He doesn’t have to be the sole reason why Ohio State wins a national title, but he can’t be the reason the Buckeyes fall short, either. — Rittenberg
This is going to be quite the thought experiment. I found myself thinking, “Man, if Ohio State just had a top-20 level quarterback, they’d be the best team in the country with this defense” multiple times in 2023, and in Howard it has inked the quarterback who ranked 22nd in Total QBR last season, right on that top-20 borderline. He’s not C.J. Stroud, but he might be good enough, especially in such a transition year for quarterbacks overall. — Connelly
Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen
Nolen was the No. 1 recruit in the country when he signed with Texas A&M to headline the Aggies’ top-ranked recruiting class in 2022. He showed flashes of being an All-SEC performer with 11 tackles for loss and five sacks in his first two seasons in the SEC. The key now is being that kind of player on every down, as Ole Miss will look to Nolen to be an enforcer in its defensive line on what should be Lane Kiffin’s most talented defense yet in Oxford. The 6-4, 295-pound Nolen was one of the most coveted players in the 2023 transfer portal. If he plays to that level and becomes a more consistent player — along with some of the other key transfers Ole Miss brought in — the Rebels should be right in the middle of the 2024 playoff chase. — Low
Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard
All eyes are going to be on the latest ACC transfer signal-caller to come through South Bend. That’s just the way it is. Leonard showed glimpses of what he could do when healthy during the last two seasons at Duke (2,967 passing yards and 20 touchdowns for a nine-win Blue Devils’ team in 2022). After playing in only seven games because of injury last season, he now gets the opportunity to shine on a far bigger stage for perhaps the sport’s biggest brand. A third 10-win campaign in four years and a potential return to the CFP is well within reach if Leonard can effectively pilot the offense for Marcus Freeman. — Baumgartner
Florida State QB DJ Uiagalelei
At the risk of turning this into a pro-ACC quarterback fest, we have been waiting on Uiagalelei to play like an elite quarterback since his arrival at Clemson in 2020. That has not quite happened yet. Uiagalelei transferred to Oregon State for the 2023 season after a constant barrage of criticism during his two years as a starter with the Tigers. He played better in his one season with the Beavers, but now finds himself joining the reigning ACC champions with the belief he can put it all together. Uiagalelei has never thrown for 3,000 yards or more than 22 touchdowns in three years as a starter. “He’s been in some tough situations,” coach Mike Norvell said. “I don’t get too caught up on what other people’s perceptions are at quarterback, because we just lived it. Plenty of people didn’t perceive Jordan Travis to be a great quarterback, and I’m really glad that I got the opportunity to show that he was. I’m excited to work with him, excited about what he brings, and obviously where that can go.” — Andrea Adelson
Miami QB Cam Ward
A number of coaches viewed Ward as the crown jewel of this year’s quarterback class. Ward toyed with entering the NFL draft — even announcing his intent to do so at one point — but instead landed at Miami. It could be a match made in heaven. Mario Cristobal has been stockpiling talent in Coral Gables, and he believes this Canes team is close to fulfilling its potential. On the other hand, Miami’s QB play in two years under Cristobal has been mediocre at best, with many of Tyler Van Dyke‘s biggest miscues playing directly into inexplicable Miami losses. Can Ward be the long-awaited answer for Miami? His passer rating and Total QBR last year both trailed Van Dyke’s, so there’s a lot of big assumptions in play here. The upside is awfully high though, and a career year from Ward could be the missing ingredient that finally puts Miami over the top. Since joining the ACC, Miami has never had a first-team all-conference quarterback. — Hale
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MLB offseason grades: Judging the Nimmo-for-Semien swap for Mets, Rangers
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November 24, 2025By
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Bradford Doolittle
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Bradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
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David Schoenfield
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David Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
Nov 23, 2025, 07:03 PM ET
It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so follow along here — this story will continue to be updated. Check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.
Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents | Fantasy spin
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Mets get:
2B Marcus Semien
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Rangers get:
OF Brandon Nimmo
Mets grade: C+
One-for-one swaps of quality veterans are rare enough these days that when one lands, and people are familiar with both players, the label “blockbuster” starts to get thrown around in a way that would make Frantic Frank Lane roll his eyes. This deal, which brings Semien to New York for career Met Nimmo, is interesting. It is also a trade involving two post-30 players carrying multiple seasons of pricey contracts. Lackluster would be a better description than blockbuster. The valuations on this deal at Baseball Trade Values illustrate nicely the underwater contracts involved.
For the Mets, it’s important to underscore the fact that Semien is 35 years old. Though he challenged for AL MVP during Texas’ championship season in 2023, his offensive numbers have since headed south, as tends to happen to middle infielders with his expanding chronology. Over the past two seasons, his bat has been just below league average — and while there is plenty of value in being roughly average, it’s still a precarious baseline for a player on the downside of his career. His offensive forecast isn’t as good as that of New York’s heretofore presumed regular at second base, Jeff McNeil, who might still get plenty of run at other positions.
That said, Semien is a much better defender than McNeil. Semien is coming off his second career Gold Glove, an honor backed up by consistently strong fielding metrics that have marked his play at the keystone ever since he moved over from shortstop. Though Semien’s contract features a higher average annual value than Nimmo ($25 million in terms of the luxury tax calculation versus $20.5 million), it’s of shorter duration and the move will cut into New York’s considerable longer-term obligations.
One thing that is head-scratching here: The Mets are pretty deep in high-quality infield prospects, from Luisangel Acuna to Ronny Mauricio to Jett Williams, all of whom carry considerably more upside than Semien at this point.
Rangers grade: C+
If you ignore positional adjustments, Nimmo is a better hitter than Semien and should be a considerable upgrade for Texas in the outfield compared with what the Rangers had been getting from the recently non-tendered Adolis Garcia. He’s not as good a defender as Garcia, especially in arm strength and, in fact, is likelier to play in left in Texas rather than Garcia’s old spot in right. As mentioned, Semien was a Gold Glover at his position and so now, in their effort to remake an offense that needed an overhaul, you worry that the Rangers are putting a dent in their defense.
We’ll see how that shakes out as the offseason unfolds, but for now, we can focus on Nimmo’s bat and the possibility that his numbers could get a bump from the switch in venues. He’s typically hit better on the road than at pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and Globe Life Field, while strangely stingy overall last season, has typically been a solid place to hit for left-handed batters.
The project in Texas is clear. It’s about not just improving the offensive production but also pursuing that goal by shifting the focus of the attack. Nimmo’s power bat is a slim upgrade on Semien and a downgrade from Garcia. But Nimmo is a much better hitter for average than both, and he has the best plate discipline of the trio. These are both traits the Rangers’ offense very much needed.
Nimmo’s contract is a problem, but it’s more of a longer-term issue than it will be in 2026, when he’ll make $5.5 million less than Semien. Texas is looking to reshuffle while reigning in the spending, and this is the kind of deal that aids that agenda. The Rangers can worry about the real downside of Nimmo’s deal later. For now, they can hope that moving to a new vista for the first time will boost Nimmo’s numbers, which have settled a tier below where they were during his Mets prime. — Bradford Doolittle
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Orioles get:
LF Taylor Ward
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Angels get:
RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Orioles grade: D
The first major trade of last offseason came on Nov. 22, when Cincinnati dealt Jonathan India to Kansas City for Brady Singer. This one leaked on Nov. 18, so we’re getting an earlier start. Given the relatively tepid nature of this year’s free agent class, the hope is that this deal is the vanguard of a coming baseball swap meet. Trades are fun.
Alas, although it was easy to understand the reasoning for both sides in the aforementioned Reds-Royals deal, I’m not sure I get this one so much from the Orioles side. The caveat is that maybe Baltimore’s brass, which obviously knows a lot more about Rodriguez than I do, has good reason to think that Gray-Rod (just made that one up) is not likely to live up to his considerable pre-MLB hype.
I don’t like to get too actuarial about these things, but you kind of have to be in this case because Ward will be a free agent after the 2026 season whereas Rodriguez has four seasons of team control left on his service time clock. Thus, even if Rodriguez is likely to need an adjustment period this season as he attempts to come back from the injuries that cost him all of 2025, Baltimore would have had plenty of time to let that play out.
Ward turns 32 next month, likely putting him at the outer rim of his career prime. He has been a decent player — an average of 3.0 bWAR over the past four years — but his skill set is narrow. Ward has been a fixture in left field the past couple of seasons and has shown diminishment both on defense and on the bases. He’s someone you acquire for his bat.
On that front, Ward hit a career-high 36 homers in 2025, but his underlying Statcast-generated expected numbers suggest he overachieved in that area a bit. The righty-swinging Ward does generate power to the opposite field, but his power game is still likely to see a negative impact from the move to Camden Yards. He’s patient at the plate to the point of occasional passivity, as he’s almost always hunting a pitch to drive, even if that means taking a couple of strikes.
That’s not a bad thing, but that approach, combined with a fly ball-heavy distribution, has led to a consistently plummeting average: .281 to .253 to .246 to .228. He’s a take-and-rake guy who doesn’t generate enough fear from pitchers to keep them out of the zone, which might supercharge his walk rate enough to bring his OBP up to an acceptable level, which it won’t be given the batting average trend.
And all of this would be fine for one year of a productive hitter likely to earn $12-14 million through the arbitration process. But at the cost of four years of a pitcher with Rodriguez’s ceiling? I’m not seeing it.
Angels grade: A-
This is about upside for an Angels staff desperate for a true No. 1 starter. To expect Rodriguez to fill that need in 2026 is a lot, and perhaps, given his durability issues, he will never get there. His big league results (97 ERA+, 3.80 FIP over 43 starts in 2023 and 2024) are solid but nothing special. The allure of Rodriguez remains the combination of high ceiling and controllable seasons.
And the ceiling is very high. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Rodriguez as the game’s top pitching prospect in 2022 and rated him nearly as high in 2023. The mere possibility of Gray-Rod (did it again) fulfilling that potential in an Angels uniform is an exciting notion for fans in Anaheim.
Whether or not there is much of a possibility of Rodriguez getting there is almost beside the point. I’d feel better about this if he were headed to an organization with a better track record of turning around underachieving/injury-prone hurlers, but maybe the Angels can make some strides in this area.
The deal opens up a hole in the outfield for the Angels with no obvious plug-in solution from the organization. But finding a free agent replacement who approximates or exceeds Ward’s production shouldn’t break the bank. Here’s a vote for going after Cody Bellinger.
The possibility of that kind of upgrade and maybe someday a fully realized Gray-Rod, all for the low-low price of one season of Taylor Ward? Sign me up. — Doolittle
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The deal: 5 years, $92.5 million
Grade: A-
If there was an award for free agent prediction most to likely come true, Josh Naylor returning to the Seattle Mariners would have been the front-runner, so it’s hardly a surprise that this is the first significant signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As soon as the Mariners’ season ended with that heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the ALCS, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was its top priority. Such public vocalizations at that level are rare — and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.
It’s easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been searching for a long-term solution at first base for, oh, going on 20 years — really, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a couple solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005 only the Pirates’ first basemen have produced a lower OPS than Seattle’s.
Naylor, meanwhile, came over at the trade deadline from Arizona and provided a huge spark down the stretch, hitting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 54 games, good for 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished at .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, it’s not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, but Naylor spoke about how he loves hitting there. The numbers back that up: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and slugged .534.
Importantly for a Seattle lineup that is heavy on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; he finished with the 17th-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s entire game is a bit of an oxymoron. He ranks in just the seventh percentile in chase rate but still had a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) with an excellent contact rate. He can’t run (third percentile!) but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19-for-19 after joining the Mariners. He doesn’t look like he’d be quick in the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the past four seasons.
He’s not a star — 3.1 WAR in 2025 was a career high — but he’s a safe, predictable player to bank on for the next few years. This deal runs through his age-33 season, so maybe there’s some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing and so will Mariners fans. — David Schoenfield
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Sources: Rangers, Mets to swap Semien, Nimmo
Published
4 hours agoon
November 23, 2025By
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The New York Mets and Texas Rangers have agreed to a trade that would send second baseman Marcus Semien to the Mets and outfielder Brandon Nimmo to the Rangers, sources told ESPN on Sunday.
Nimmo agreed to waive his no-trade clause, sources said, allowing the deal to be consummated, pending MLB approval. His tenure with the Mets started when they chose him with the 13th overall pick in the 2011 draft.
Semien, a three-time All-Star, joined the Rangers in 2022 and won a World Series with them the next season.
Texas entered the offseason looking for areas to save money, with its payroll being cut and four players — Semien, shortstop Corey Seager, and right-handers Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi — set to make in excess of $25 million next year. While the Rangers will actually take on more long-term money in Nimmo, who is owed $101.25 million over the next five seasons, the per-year sum is lower, with Semien set to make $72 million for the next three seasons.
The trade is the first move in what’s expected to be a busy winter for both teams — particularly the Mets. As a result of the team’s slow collapse over the season’s final 3½ months, New York missed the postseason and eventually underwent significant turnover in its coaching staff. The acquisition of Semien — who won a Gold Glove this year — aligns with president of baseball operations David Stearns’ primary goal this winter of improving run prevention.
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Sizing up the postseason picture, including every bowl matchup, with one week to go
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8 hours agoon
November 23, 2025By
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
Nov 23, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
With one week left in the regular season, the College Football Playoff and bowl pictures are coming into sharper focus — except where they aren’t.
Things are pretty settled at the top of the field, as a relatively upset-free Week 13 left a half-dozen or so teams that are virtual locks for the CFP. But the ACC in particular has numerous moving parts in terms of who will play for the conference championship and likely make the playoff, and league title-game matchups are unsettled pretty much everywhere.
Meanwhile, teams sitting at five wins are sweating things out, with one more chance to become bowl eligible.
As with last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas Tech
Bonagura: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: The ACC doomsday scenario of its conference champion being left out of the playoff in favor of a team from the American — Tulane or North Texas — and the Sun Belt’s James Madison is still alive, but it feels like a we’ll-believe-it-when-we-see-it thing.
For now, I still don’t think the ACC champ would end up behind two Group of 5 teams, regardless of who it is. That would be a lot easier to feel good about if Miami had a straightforward path to the ACC title game, but that is not the case. Instead, the Hurricanes need to beat Pitt and would need Virginia to lose to Virginia Tech and Cal to beat SMU. It’s possible. It’s not likely. The title game will be SMU and Virginia if they both win next week, which is why SMU gets the ACC nod for the time being; the Ponies have been the better team of late.
The rest of the playoff field is mostly straightforward. Six teams from the SEC and Big Ten are locks (Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oregon). So is Texas Tech of the Big 12. Notre Dame (Stanford), Alabama (Auburn) and Oklahoma (LSU) are probably in with wins, but one of those slots would go to BYU if the Cougars beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game.
Schlabach: The appetizer to the final weekend of the regular season didn’t produce much drama, as every CFP contender — outside of the ACC at least — found a way to get things done, mostly against inferior competition.
With two weeks left before the CFP selection committee announces the 12-team bracket on Dec. 7, I’m betting that five teams — Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia and Texas Tech — have punched their tickets, regardless of what happens in their regular-season finales and respective conference championship games (if they make it there).
Three more teams — Oregon, Ole Miss and Oklahoma — can probably do the same if they win this week. The Ducks erased any doubts about their overall strength with an impressive 42-27 win against USC. They’ll close the regular season at Washington on Saturday.
The Rebels had the weekend off, and they might have needed the time to refocus as speculation continues to heat up about whether coach Lane Kiffin will leave for LSU or Florida. Ole Miss plays at rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Friday.
The surging Sooners picked up their third straight victory against a ranked opponent, taking down Missouri 17-6 at home. Oklahoma hosts LSU in its regular-season finale Saturday.
Notre Dame and Alabama would probably be in good shape for at-large bids with wins this coming weekend; the Irish play at struggling Stanford on Saturday, while the Crimson Tide travel to Auburn in Saturday’s Iron Bowl. However, they might still be at the mercy of the selection committee, depending on what happens in other leagues.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: No changes for me here from last week, but it should be noted that Oregon is back on track offensively after a couple of uninspiring showings in late October and early November.
Quarterback Dante Moore looks like he is capable of leading a team to the national title, but first the Ducks have a big rivalry game with Washington to navigate this week.
Schlabach: Three of the top four seeds continued to play well this weekend, as Ohio State crushed Rutgers 42-9 at home. Next the Buckeyes travel to Michigan, where they’ll attempt to exorcise some demons in “The Game.” The Buckeyes have dropped four games in a row to the Wolverines, including a stunning 13-10 loss at home last season. The Buckeyes were ranked No. 2 in the CFP rankings and somehow fell to the 6-5 Wolverines. Emotions will surely be running high once again at the Big House.
Texas A&M walloped FCS program Samford 48-0 in its final warmup game. The Aggies will play at rival Texas for the first time in 15 years on Saturday. Texas A&M won 24-17 at Texas on Nov. 25, 2010. The Longhorns won the past two games in the series, both in College Station.
Georgia took care of business in a 35-3 win against Charlotte. The Bulldogs will play rival Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday. Last season, Georgia had to overcome a 17-point deficit and needed eight overtimes to put the Yellow Jackets away in a 44-42 victory.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: Ohio State is the deserved No. 1 seed. Its defense has been historically good, and the Buckeyes haven’t been challenged since opening the season with Texas. But they also haven’t exactly seen the best the Big Ten has to offer without Indiana, Oregon, USC or Iowa on the schedule this year.
It would be a lot easier to be more confident about Ohio State with a couple of more ranked teams on its résumé, but that’s how things work out with schedules now that conferences are so big. It makes this week’s game against Michigan more interesting and potentially sets up a fascinating Big Ten title game.
Schlabach: My quarterfinal and semifinal matchups remain unchanged from a week ago. The Cotton Bowl contest would feature two of the best transfer quarterbacks in the FBS: Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza.
I have Georgia slipping past Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, although the Red Raiders’ menacing defensive front would be quite the challenge for the Bulldogs’ much-improved offensive line. Georgia seems to be peaking at the right time, unlike last season, and few coaches know how to get things done in the postseason like Kirby Smart.
A Rose Bowl game between Notre Dame and Ohio State would be a TV ratings bonanza, and Texas A&M-Oregon in New Orleans would be another entertaining game. I have both favorites moving on to the semifinals.

Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona State vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Washington vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Troy
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Old Dominion
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. UConn
Schlabach: Marshall vs. East Carolina
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Clemson
Schlabach: UConn vs. Florida State
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Louisiana
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Utah State vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. California
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. California
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Western Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. UNLV
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Navy
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Illinois
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Army
Schlabach: Louisville vs. South Florida
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Houston
Schlabach: Virginia vs. Cincinnati
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Schlabach: New Mexico vs. UTSA
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. LSU
Schlabach: Miami vs. Texas
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Texas
Schlabach: Houston vs. Kentucky
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida State vs. Memphis
Schlabach: NC State vs. James Madison
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Western Kentucky
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: TCU vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Memphis
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Washington
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Arizona State
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