Caerphilly is famous for three Cs: coal, cheese and its mighty castle. It’s also the birthplace of the legendary comedian Tommy Cooper.

And after Thursday’s Senedd by-election, in what was once a Labour stronghold as impregnable as the castle, it’s Plaid Cymru or Reform UK that will have the last laugh.

It may not be a Westminster by-election, but this clash will have an impact on UK politics way beyond the Welsh valleys if Nigel Farage’s party triumphs.

A Reform UK victory would strengthen claims that Mr Farage and his insurgents are poised to inflict massive damage on Labour and the Conservatives in elections next year and beyond.

Victory in the valleys would intensify fears among the other parties that Reform UK’s boasts about winning the next general election are not the fantasy that its opponents claim.

On a campaign visit to Caerphilly, Mr Farage – inevitably – posed for photographs in front of a 9ft tall bronze statue of Tommy Cooper, who died in 1984.

But the by-election is no laughing matter for Labour, which has seen its support in this by-election crumble like Caerphilly cheese.

Labour has held the Westminster seat of Caerphilly since 1918 and the Senedd seat since devolution in 1999. Ron Davies, said to be the architect of Welsh devolution, was MP from 1983 to 2001.

He was Welsh secretary under Tony Blair from 1997 until he quit over what he called a “moment of madness” in 1998 when he was mugged at knifepoint on London’s Clapham Common.

For the front-runner Reform UK, not even the conviction of its former leader in Wales, Nathan Gill, for taking pro-Russian bribes seems to have halted the march of Mr Farage’s party towards the brink of a stunning victory.

Mr Gill, who led Reform UK in Wales in 2021, admitted taking bribes to make statements in favour of Vladimir Putin’s Russia while he was a member of the European Parliament.

Questioned during a visit to Caerphilly, Mr Farage said: “Any political party can find in their midst all sorts of terrible people. Gill is particularly shocking because I knew him as a devout Christian, very clean-living, honest person. So I’m deeply shocked.”

Despite this bribery scandal, the latest opinion poll in the constituency suggested a narrow Reform UK victory, with Mr Farage’s party on 42%, Plaid Cymru on 38% and Labour languishing on a dismal 12%.

But with Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Green Party out of contention in a two-horse race, Reform UK’s candidate Llŷr Powell could be vulnerable to tactical voting for Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle.

Turnout could be crucial. A low turnout is likely to help Plaid Cymru win. A high turnout could mean Reform’s opinion poll leads, both nationally and locally, are reliable and could hand victory to Mr Farage.

But Plaid has come second in every Senedd election in Caerphilly and Mr Whittle can’t be faulted for perseverance and dogged determination. Until now, he’s had a miserable record as a candidate, both for Westminster and the Senedd.

Aged 72, he has stood in Caerphilly in every general election since 1983, no fewer than 10 times, and in every Welsh Assembly election since it was formed in 1999 – seven times.

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Dubbed “Mr Caerphilly” by his party, he was council leader and assembly member for South Wales East between 2011 and 2016.

Interviewed by Sky News back in 2003, the year of Tony Blair’s Iraq war, he said: “People are obviously very unhappy with the health service. They’re unhappy with the way the Labour Party are drifting to the right.

“They’re unhappy with the treatment of the ex-miners and their compensation claims. They’re unhappy with the treatment of the firemen. They’re unhappy that we’ve just gone to war.”

Reform UK’s Mr Powell, on the other hand, is just 30 and is relatively inexperienced as a candidate. He was a Tory candidate in local elections in Cardiff in 2022.

But he was also active in Mr Farage’s UKIP and Brexit Party and worked for the now disgraced Gill as a constituency caseworker while Gill was an MEP. He now says Mr Gill’s actions were “abhorrent” and “a betrayal”.

For Labour, despite its long dominance in Caerphilly, this campaign couldn’t have gone any worse. As well as battling against the unpopularity of both Sir Keir Starmer and the Welsh government, the council’s Labour leader, Sean Morgan, defected to Plaid Cymru during the campaign.

So, like many two-horse races, this political dash to the finishing line could be neck and neck.

Of Caerphilly’s three Cs, coal is long gone. The last mine, Penallta collier, closed in 1991, though there’s a proud history of coal mining.

Back in 1913, tragedy struck when the Universal Colliery in Senghenydd was the site of the UK’s worst mining accident, when 439 miners and a rescuer were killed in an explosion.

But Caerphilly could be about to make history once more, with either a massive stride forward on the road to Downing Street for Mr Farage or Labour surrendering power to the Welsh nationalists in Cardiff after more than a quarter of a century.

And, as Caerphilly’s most famous son would have said, the by-election result on Thursday night will be a pointer to politics in Wales and the whole of the UK… just like that!

The rate of inflation remained static in September, according to official figures, which could raise prospects for interest rate cuts ahead.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) had been expected by economists to reveal a figure of 4.1% – a level not seen since October 2023.

But the main consumer prices index (CPI) measure over the rolling 12-month period was held down by the first decline in food and non-alcoholic drinks prices since May last year, easing from 5.1% to 4.5%, and slowing costs for live events.

At 3.8%, however, the UK’s inflation rate remains the highest in the G7 – which is made up of the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US.

Money latest: What inflation hike means for state pension and rail fare increases

September’s inflation figures don’t just lay bare rising cost pressures on households and businesses currently.

They are also used to determine the uplift for the state pension in April.

Under the triple-lock mechanism, the pension payments are set to rise in line with earnings at 4.8% as the figure is running higher than the 3.8% rate of inflation and 2.5% minimum threshold.

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said of the big picture: “A variety of price movements meant inflation was unchanged overall in September.

“The largest upward drivers came from petrol prices and airfares, where the fall in prices eased in comparison to last year.

“These were offset by lower prices for a range of recreational and cultural purchases including live events.”

He added that the outlook for food was uncertain as factory gate price data showed rising costs.

While lower than expected, the CPI rate still remains almost double the Bank of England’s target rate of 2%.

The most recent language out of the Bank’s interest rate-setters had centred on the potential for elevated inflation to postpone prospects for more interest rate cuts.

Bank rate currently stands at 4%.

But the Bank and most economists expect inflation to have peaked, barring further economic shocks.

The contribution from energy is likely to fall sharply next month, despite a 2% rise in bills.

As such, LSEG data showed continued caution over the prospects for a November rate cut but a flurry of activity around December. Waiting will allow the Bank to see a further set of both employment and inflation figures.

Much will also depend on core and services inflation measures, also lower than expected today, continuing that trend.

These, along with pay growth rates, are crucial bits of information for the Bank to determine whether inflation is ingrained in the economy.

Private business surveys would suggest that its efforts to get inflation down may also be helped by subdued confidence in the economy ahead of the budget next month.

There are widespread fears of big tax rises ahead to fill a void, estimated at up to £30bn, in the public finances.

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Borrowing figures released on Tuesday showed government borrowing in the financial year to date £7.2bn above the level forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

At the same time, tax receipts were up almost 10% in September compared to the same month in 2024.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is being urged to act in a way that does not risk fanning the flames of inflation after businesses passed on higher employment costs imposed months after her first budget.

She said of the inflation data: “I am not satisfied with these numbers. For too long, our economy has felt stuck, with people feeling like they are putting in more and getting less out.

“That needs to change. All of us in government are responsible for supporting the Bank of England in bringing inflation down. I am determined to ensure we support people struggling with higher bills and the cost of living challenges, deliver economic growth and build an economy that works for, and rewards, working people.”

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