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A view shows part of the state oil firm Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) refinery in Salamanca. State of Guanajuato, Mexico, Monday, December 19, 2022.

Danil Shamkin | Nurphoto | Getty Images

China’s oil demand growth this year could be half of pre-Covid 2019 levels, according to Eurasia Group, as key segments of the world’s second-largest economy struggle from a slowdown.

The country is unlikely to return to its model of an oil-intensive economic growth this year, with the its construction and auto sectors — key drivers for oil demand — now looking “exhausted,” the risk consultancy said in a note.

The consultancy expects demand growth to be around 250,000 bpd to 350,000 bpd, less than half of what it was in 2019 — demand growth will not return to the million barrels per day seen between 2015 and 2020.

The incremental fuel demand growth in China that the oil industry has come to literally bank on over the past two decades is no more.

Eurasia Group

Even if China’s property sector recovers, future growth on the level seen before the pandemic “is not possible” given the country’s soaring debt levels, declining demographics and reduced GDP growth expectations, according to the consultancy.

“The incremental fuel demand growth in China that the oil industry has come to literally bank on over the past two decades is no more,” Eurasia Group said.

China will lose its spot to India as the primary driver for global oil demand through 2030, the International Energy Agency said in a report.

Chinese oil consumption hit an all-time high of 16.03 million barrels per day last year — a 1.2 million barrels per day growth — as the country took advantage of plunging oil prices to import large volumes of cheap crude, analysts from JPMorgan wrote in a recent note.

The record figure was also boosted by increased domestic passenger travel levels after Covid restrictions were lifted.

However, the supporting factors that led to record demand growth last year are fading in 2024, said JPMorgan, which expects an increase of 530,000 barrels per day this year as China continues on the trajectory of a “low-quality growth.”

“The country’s economic slowdown is weighing on growth in gasoline and especially diesel demand,” Rapidan Energy’s Director of Refined Products Linda Giesecke told CNBC, adding that an electrification of China’s auto fleet was also restricting growth in gasoline demand.

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BP has appointed its fourth CEO in 6 years — but will she be radically different?

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BP has appointed its fourth CEO in 6 years — but will she be radically different?

Meg O’Neill, chief executive officer of Woodside Energy Group Ltd., attends the company’s annual general meeting in Perth, Australia on Thursday, May 8, 2025. Photographer: Matt Jelonek/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BP is changing its CEO again, but not its direction.

The appointment of Woodside Energy boss Meg O’Neill as its fourth new leader in six years suggests continuity, not course correction, after Murray Auchincloss’s tenure of less than two years.

I would suggest that Auchincloss didn’t necessarily do anything particularly that Meg O’Neill won’t be doing as well.

When I first met him in 2011, Auchincloss was chief of staff to Bob Dudley, BP’s immensely successful CEO who joined in the wake of the Deepwater Horizon disaster. Dudley was replaced in early 2020 by Bernard Looney, who sought to transform the company into a green energy giant. Then, the company came under pressure from investors amid share price underperformance.

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BP shares over the last five years

Looney left his role in 2023 following the revelation of undisclosed relationships with colleagues. Some people saw other contenders internally, because BP has always picked key people internally, up until this moment.

Other names were floated as contenders to lead the energy giant. Auchincloss was CFO when he stepped up to be CEO in January 2024. He was instrumental in reversing Looney’s strategy and focusing on the company’s core gas and oil units, and trying to get down some of the company’s enormous debt.

Carol Howle, BP’s executive vice president for supply, trading, and shipping, is to be interim CEO until O’Neill takes over on April 1. Auchincloss is set to remain until the end of 2026 in an advisory capacity. Many would suggest that a lot of the reasons why he’s stepping down are not necessarily his fault.

BP names Meg O'Neill as new CEO from April 1, 2026

He was basically trying to redress a policy direction that shareholders ultimately decided was not the right way to go. This is about retrenchment. This is about Albert Manifold, the chair, saying, “right, we need someone to take us forward in the United States more aggressively, to get the debt down more aggressively, and to keep activist investors Elliott Management on board as well.”

Meg O’Neill is a US citizen. Is that going to help with exposure to the United States? At Woodside, she’s been very active in trying to increase their LNG assets and strategic purchases.

This appointment is about the speed of direction and perhaps the aggressiveness. It’s the public perception from some shareholders about Auchincloss as well.

I’ll be interested to see how Elliot moves forward. My understanding is that they’re actually very happy about the appointment. It’s fascinating to look at the share price performance over the last couple of years. It’s up 56% in five years — not bad, considering that during that period, we’ve seen low oil prices with the Brent price currently trading just around $60 a barrel.

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BP names new CEO — its fourth in 6 years

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BP names new CEO — its fourth in 6 years

BP has appointed Woodside Energy boss Meg O’Neill as its next CEO, reinforcing the British oil giant’s back-to-basics strategy.

O’Neill will replace Murray Auchincloss, after less than two years in the role.

Auchincloss will step down today, with Carol Howle, BP’s executive vice president for supply, trading and shipping set to serve as interim CEO until O’Neill takes over the role on April 1. She will be BP’s fourth CEO in six years.

Stephen Isaacs, strategic advisor at Alvine Capital, which holds a position in BP, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday that while BP has been “a very poor performer for a long, long time,” this move could be “the last piece of the jigsaw” in getting its house in order.

“It rather kind of drank a bit too much Kool Aid on the whole energy transition and neglected its core businesses … So I think [the replacement of the CEO is] a kind of confirmation that we’re going to get back to basics. And I think that’s pretty good for the stock,” Isaacs said.

BP’s share price ended the previous session up 0.7% following the news. It initially extended gains into Thursday before moving into negative territory. Shares were last seen 0.1% lower.

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A graph showing BP’s share price

Auchincloss stepped up from his previous role as chief financial officer to the top job in January 2024, after his predecessor Bernard Looney left the company for failing to disclose a relationship with a colleague.

Looney, who had been in the role since early 2020 when he succeeded Bob Dudley, had sought to transform the oil major into a green energy giant but came under investor pressure amid share underperformance.

Auchincloss reversed that strategy, and focused on the company’s core gas and oil units.

In the Wednesday statement, Auchincloss said he’d told recently appointed Chair Albert Manifold he was open to stepping down if an “appropriate leader” was identified.

BP fielded off takeover rumors earlier this year, with fellow U.K. energy incumbent Shell denying reports that it was in talks to snap up its its struggling competitor.

The London-listed oil exploration company that was founded in 1909 under the name Anglo-Persian Oil Company, has underperformed compared with its peers, having reported declining annual profits in both 2023 and 2024.

Meg O’Neill, chief executive officer of Woodside Energy Group Ltd., attends the company’s annual general meeting in Perth, Australia on Thursday, May 8, 2025. Photographer: Matt Jelonek/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

However, BP’s fundamental strategic reset that saw it U-turn on green pledges, shake-up its leadership, launch a cost-cutting program and a string of oil discoveries, helped ease pressure.

BP’s share price is up over 15% year-to-date and 21% over the past five years. The stock ended Wednesday up 0.7% as investors responded to the leadership announcement.

Holding the line

O’Neill will likely hold the line, drawing on more than two-and-a-half decades of experience in the oil and gas industry, including 23 yeas at U.S. giant ExxonMobil. She chairs the Australian oil and gas industry body Australian Energy Producers (AEP) and is a board member of the American Petroleum Institute. She also served on the board of the Business Council of Australia.

Speaking to CNBC’s Dan Murphy at the Future Investment Initiative Institute in Saudi Arabia in October about Woodside Energy’s strategy, O’Neill said that the firm’s investments are made by looking at the demand profile “for decades to come” — which led it to liquified natural gas (LNG).

Oil majors, including BP, have pushed hard into LNG production, which is considered a bridge fuel by the likes of the European Commission, given it is cleaner than coal.

BP names Meg O'Neill as new CEO from April 1, 2026

“We’ve got deep conviction around the role of LNG as in many ways, finding the sweet spot between reliability, affordability and sustainability. When we talk to customers in places like North Asia and Europe and ask them what they want, they say ‘we want all three factors’,” she said.

When customers are asked whether they are willing to pay for more climate-friendly products, “the answer is often zero or near zero,” she added. “So that has underpinned our focus on LNG.”

At the time, Woodside expected LNG demand to grow 50% over the coming decade.

Isaacs tips “natural energy” stocks to rebound from recent damp investor sentiment. “They’re relatively cheap compared to the rest of the market, and they go with my general thesis of rotation — rotation out of tech into value,” he said.

Woodside Energy’s stock price closed Wednesday’s session 1.3% lower.

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25% of new cars sold globally in 2025 were EVs – here’s who bought them

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25% of new cars sold globally in 2025 were EVs – here's who bought them

More than 25% of new cars sold globally in 2025 are now electric, according to new analysis from energy think tank Ember. This growth is increasingly driven by emerging markets that, only a few years ago, had minimal adoption of EVs. 

Where the EVs sold in 2025

The analysis reveals that the EV race has truly gone global. There are now 39 countries where EVs make up more than 10% of new car sales, compared with just four in 2019.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) became a significant force in global EV adoption in 2025. Singapore and Vietnam have reached EV sales shares of around 40%, overtaking levels seen in the UK and the EU. 

Indonesia has reached 15% this year, surpassing the US for the first time. Thailand has reached 20% and has sold more EVs in the first three quarters of 2025 than Denmark. These shifts demonstrate how rapidly the region is transitioning from a low base to a position of leadership. 

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Euan Graham, electricity and data analyst at Ember, said: “This is a major turning point. In 2025, the center of gravity has moved. Emerging markets are no longer catching up; they are leading the shift to electric mobility. These countries see the strategic advantages of EVs, from cleaner air to reduced fossil fuel imports.” 

Other regions are also gaining momentum. In Latin America, Uruguay has reached a 27% EV share, roughly in line with the EU. Mexico and Brazil continue to show steady growth, now surpassing Japan, where the EV share has remained around 3% since 2022. Türkiye has reached 17%, overtaking Belgium to become Europe’s fourth-largest BEV market by volume.

Emerging markets are buying Chinese EVs

Since mid-2023, almost all the growth in Chinese EV exports has come from non-OECD markets. Brazil, Mexico, the UAE, and Indonesia are among the top 10 destinations for Chinese EV exports this year, as their governments have introduced policies to support EV adoption, including reduced taxes and incentives for domestic manufacturing. 

As more countries take up EVs, the impact on fossil fuel demand is already tangible. EVs are three times more efficient than ICE vehicles, which means they deliver significant reductions in oil use even in countries that still rely heavily on fossil fuels for power generation. In Brazil, where electricity is mostly clean, BEVs cut fossil fuel demand by around 90%. In Indonesia, the number was reduced by nearly half.

Graham said, “Emerging markets will shape the future of the global car market. The choices made now on charging infrastructure and early support will determine how fast this momentum continues.” 

Read more: LAZ Parking plans EV chargers in 50,000 everyday parking spots


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