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More widespread use of powerful weight-loss drugs like Ozempic in the U.S. could boost the economy in the coming years, according to Goldman Sachs strategists. 

The bank estimates that weight-loss drugs, called GLP-1 agonists, could increase the nation’s gross domestic product by an extra 1% over the next decade, the equivalent of about $360 billion per year. 

The thinking behind Goldman’s forecast is that poor health is a burden to economic growth, largely because it limits the number of available workers and hours worked due to increased missed days at work as a result of “sickness and disability, early deaths and informal caregiving.”

In fact, Goldman said that GDP in the U.S. would potentially be more than 10% higher if poor health outcomes did not affect the labor supply.

“The main reason we see meaningful upside from healthcare innovation is that poor health imposes significant economic costs. There are several channels through which poor health weighs on economic activity that could diminish if health outcomes improve,” the analysts, led by Jan Hatzius, wrote.

Drug companies are vying to join what has largely been a two-horse race to make obesity drugs.

Novo Nordisk the maker of Ozempic and Wegovy and Eli Lilly, the producer of Mounjaro, skyrocketed in popularity last year amid runaway demand for the drugs, which are taken by A-listers including Oprah Winfrey and Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

Similar drugs could enter the market depending on clinical trials. 

The market is expected to top $100 billion by 2030, according to one estimate from JPMorgan.

Goldman projects that anywhere between 10 million to 70 million Americans will be taking weight-loss drugs by 2028.

The wide range stems from uncertainty over clinical trials, health insurance and available supply.

“If GLP-1 usage ultimately increases by this amount and results in lower obesity rates, we see scope for significant spillovers to the broader economy,” the analyst note said. “Academic studies find that obese individuals are both less likely to work and less productive when they do.”

The economy would grow by 0.4% in a scenario where there are 30 million users, and 1% if 60 million Americans were taking these types of drugs.

“Historically, health advancements have lowered the number of life years lost to disease and disability by 10% per decade in DM economies, and we estimate that a 10-year step forward in health progress in excess of current trends could raise the level of US GDP by 1%,” Hatzius said.

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Entertainment

Is buying vinyl bad for the planet – and what can be done about it?

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Is buying vinyl bad for the planet - and what can be done about it?

Taylor Swift’s new album helped fuel the highest weekly vinyl sales in 30 years – but is our rediscovered love of owning records environmentally reckless?

PVC (poly vinyl chloride), the plastic from which records have traditionally been made, isn’t great for the planet, and concerns have also been raised over packaging as vinyl sales have risedn in recent years.

Rou Reynolds, frontman of chart-topping rock band Enter Shikari, believes leading artists need to shoulder some responsibility to “push forward” change.

“The bigger you are as an artist, the more influence you have, the more you can push things forward and accelerate progression,” he says.

Pic: Beth Garrabrant
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Taylor Swift’s Tortured Poets Society is leading the vinyl boom. Pic: Beth Garrabrant

In an interview with Billboard in March, Billie Eilish criticised how “wasteful it is” when “some of the biggest artists in the world” make “40 different vinyl packages”, each with “a different unique thing just to get you to keep buying more”.

“Its reasonable criticism,” says Reynolds, “but I think it’ll basically dissipate as soon as it becomes the standard to use BioVinyl, for instance – that will really take away the possibility of criticism”.

Rather than make records out of regular PVC pellets, over the last few years it has become possible to use renewable sources such as cooking oil or wood pulp.

Enter Shikari at Slam Dunk Festival North in Leeds in 2023. Pic: Graham Finney/Cover Images via AP
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Enter Shikari’s Rou Reynolds, pictured on stage in 2023, says artists need to lead the way. Pic: Graham Finney/Cover Images via AP

“Traditional vinyl is an oil-based product,” Reynolds explains. “No one really wants to support the extraction of any more fossil fuels.”

Enter Shikari now insist all their records are made using BioVinyl, and Reynolds is optimistic that if more artists make demands about what their records are made from, it would become the new norm.

“A lot of independent artists, like myself, we can light these fires, then it spreads and before you know it, it will become the industry standard.”

‘The advances are incredible’

Karen Emmanuel, Key Production Group
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Karen Emanuel, chief executive of Key Production Group, has worked in the industry for 35 years

Leading voices within vinyl production want the music industry to listen.

“Along with the Vinyl Alliance and the Vinyl Records Manufacturers Association, we’re looking at the whole manufacturing chain,” says Karen Emanuel, chief executive of Key Production, the UK’s largest broker for physical music production.

“I’ve been in the business probably about 35 years and the advances that have been made, it’s incredible. A lot of the big plastics companies, for PVC they’ve found a way replacing the fossil fuel elements [which] could mean as much as a 90% reduction in the carbon footprint of the vinyl.”

The catch, at the moment, is the cost.

“It’s a bit more expensive to manufacture but if enough people manufacture with it then the price point will come down… it’s something that we’re really trying to push people towards.”

Would fans be happy to pay more for a greener product?

Lee Jeffries, from Sonic Wax, in Leicestershire
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Lee Jeffries, from Sonic Wax, in Leicestershire, owns the world’s most expensive Motown record. Pic: Sonic Wax

Lee Jefferies, the owner of Leicestershire-based vinyl pressing plant Sonic Wax Pressing, is such a big vinyl lover, he spent £100,000 buying the world’s most valuable Motown record.

“Ultimately everything works from retail back,” he says “And with retail prices already being quite high on vinyl it’s very hard for people to have the extra money to buy biodegradable vinyl.”

But a recent survey conducted by Key Production found more than two thirds (69%) of vinyl buyers indicated they would be encouraged to buy more if the records were made with a reduced environmental impact.

The findings also revealed that the vast majority, 77%, of regular vinyl customers are willing to pay a premium for reduced impact products, signalling a significant market demand for eco-friendly alternatives.

Is there a bigger problem?

Ultimately, either the consumer, artists or labels will have to shoulder the cost if vinyl is to be made more sustainably.

But while a big old hunk of PVC might feel like the least green option, are we getting ourselves in a spin when we should also be looking in another direction?

Figures from the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) and International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI) put global vinyl sales for last year at about 80 million – using the IMPALA indepdent music companies association’s music emissions calculator, that works out at producing around 156k tonnes of CO2 emissions.

Read more:
UK vinyl sales at highest level since 1990
Vinyl added to typical shopping basket used in inflation calculation

If you compare that to streaming, with Spotify alone – responsible for about a third of the market – its own estimates for its global carbon emissions were 280k tonnes last year, with vast amounts of electricity being used to power its data storage servers.

For Enter Shikari’s Reynolds, the potential to make vinyl greener is exciting.

“It has the same quality, the same appearance, you really wouldn’t notice the difference, which is incredible,” he says. “I think it speaks to, you know, a lot of the time people think that the transition society is about to go through, we think we’re going to lose luxuries… but I think this is just an example of why that’s not the case.

“You know, all it takes is some thought and some adaptation, and then some adoption… it’s super exciting.”

Perhaps now it’s time for the music industry to take note.

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Sports

Seize the Grey wins Preakness, denies Mystik Dan

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Seize the Grey wins Preakness, denies Mystik Dan

Seize the Grey went wire to wire to win the Preakness Stakes on Saturday, giving 88-year-old Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas a seventh victory in the race and ending Mystik Dan’s Triple Crown bid.

The gray colt, ridden by Jamie Torres, took advantage of the muddy track just like Lukas hoped he would, pulling off the upset at Pimlico Race Course in a second consecutive impressive start two weeks after romping in a race on the Kentucky Derby undercard at Churchill Downs. Seize the Grey went off at 9-1, one of the longest shots on the board.

Mystik Dan finished second in the field of eight horses running in the $2 million, 1 3/16-mile race. After falling short of going back to back following his win by a nose in the Kentucky Derby, it would be a surprise if he runs in the Belmont Stakes on June 8 at Saratoga Race Course.

Mystic Dan’s second-place finish extends a six-year drought in which the Kentucky Derby winner has failed to repeat at the Preakness Stakes. It is the longest such drought since 1989 to 1997, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.

Seize the Grey was a surprise Preakness winner facing tougher competition than in the Pat Day Mile on May 4. Though given the Lukas connection, it should never be a surprise when one of his horses is covered in a blanket of black-eyed Susan flowers.

No one in the race’s 149-year history has saddled more horses in the Preakness than Lukas with 48 since debuting in 1980. He had two this time, with Just Steel finishing fifth.

Lukas has now won the Preakness seven times, one short of the record held by two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer and close friend Bob Baffert, whose Imagination finished seventh. Baffert also was supposed to have two horses in the field and arguably the best, but morning line favorite Muth was scratched earlier in the week because of a fever.

Muth’s absence made Mystik Dan the 2-1 favorite, but he and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. could not replicate their perfect Derby trip — when they won the race’s first three-way photo finish since 1947. Instead, Torres rode Seize the Grey to a win in his first Preakness.

This was the last Preakness held at Pimlico Race Course as it stands before demolition begins on the historic but deteriorating track, which will still hold the 150th running of it next year during construction.

That process is already well underway at Belmont Park, which is why the final leg of the Triple Crown is happening at Saratoga for the first time and is being shortened to 1¼ miles because of the shape of the course. Kentucky Derby second-place finisher Sierra Leone, a half step from winning, is expected to headline that field.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

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Politics

Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris will not stand at next election

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Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris will not stand at next election

Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris has said he won’t be standing at the next general election but will keep campaigning for the Conservative Party.

In a letter to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, which he posted on X on Saturday night, Mr Heaton-Harris said after 24 years in politics, it had been an “honour and a privilege to serve”.

He thanked the people of Daventry, Mr Sunak and former Tory leaders, including Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, “for putting their trust in me”.

Mr Heaton-Harris, who has been serving as Northern Ireland secretary since September 2022, said: “I started as a campaigner and I’ll be out campaigning for @Conservatives at the next election because we are the only party that has and can deliver for the whole of the United Kingdom.”

He joins an exodus of Tory politicians who have announced they will be leaving Westminster at the next general election.

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More than 100 MPs from across the Commons have said they will not be standing.

Those who have announced their intention to leave parliament range from the longest-serving female MP, Labour’s Harriet Harman, to one of those only elected at the last election in 2019, Conservative MP Dehenna Davison.

Of the more than 60 Tory MPs stepping aside, high profile names include former cabinet ministers Ben Wallace, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab and Kwasi Kwarteng.

Back in March, Mrs May, 67, said she too had taken the “difficult decision” to quit the Commons after 27 years representing her Maidenhead constituency.

The last possible day for a general election is Tuesday 28 January 2025.

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