The Baltic states have an urgent message for the UK and other NATO allies about the threat posed by Russia: “Wake up! It won’t stop in Ukraine.”
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are teaching more of their citizens how to fight and have even announced plans to build a defensive line, including bunkers, along hundreds of miles of border that separates their territories from their much larger neighbour.
Now, as concern grows within NATO about the potential for large-scale conflict returning to Europe, Sky News has travelled from northeast Estonia to southwest Lithuania to hear from soldiers, civilians and politicians who are preparing for a war they hope never to fight.
As former members of the Soviet Union, the Baltics have been sounding the alarm about the existential menace posed by Moscow ever since they joined the NATO alliance two decades ago.
Back then, though, no one really listened.
Instead, the UK and other allies were focused on the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan – countering insurgents and Islamist militants is a very different type of fight than a conventional war against a peer enemy like Russia.
Adding to a collective erosion in NATO’s defences, many European states, including Britain, significantly reduced stockpiles of Cold War-era weapons, such as tanks, artillery and ammunition, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, mistakenly believing they no longer needed to be ready to fight a war of survival at a moment’s notice.
The alliance agreed to bolster its defences along the eastern flank of the Baltic states and Poland, with the deployment in 2017 of units of allied troops to all four countries – around 800 soldiers to each nation.
But this was done relatively cautiously – to minimise the risk of triggering an escalation of tensions directly between Moscow and the West as plenty of NATO states, including France and Germany, still had relatively close ties with Russia and did a lot of business.
As a result, the limited mission was not designed to prevent an invasion, but rather to provide a “tripwire” should Russian forces attack that would trigger a much larger allied response to then push them back out.
However, Vladimir Putin’s full-scale war in Ukraine on 24 February 2022 fundamentally altered that thinking too.
The allies realised once Russian troops had entered a country it would take a lot more effort to eject them, so they agreed to beef up their eastern defences even more and expanded them into four other nations.
The aim today is to prevent Russia from ever trying to invade – a concept known as “deterrence by denial”.
Throughout this evolution, the loudest voices inside NATO – urging allies to go further, faster and raising the alarm about Russia’s intentions – have been Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
They have also been amongst the strongest supporters of Ukraine and have warned that if Moscow prevails over Kyiv, it will likely try to test NATO’s defences next.
A potential soft spot for any Russian attack
The city of Narva lies on Estonia’s northeastern tip – right next door to Russia.
A vast, medieval castle, with large, stone walls and an Estonian flag fluttering high, stands at one edge of the city, next to a river that marks the border.
On the opposite bank is a second, similarly grand, historic castle, but it flies a Russian flag.
A crossing point, called the Friendship Bridge, connects Narva with the Russian city of Ivangorod.
It is only open to pedestrians after the Russian authorities closed their end to vehicle traffic for construction work at the start of February.
Arnold Vaino, a police officer with the Estonian border guard, walked us on to the bridge, stopping just short of a red post that marks the halfway point and the start of Russia.
He recalled how he felt on the day the Kremlin launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine.
“Nobody feels comfortable when you hear that war has started,” he said. “But [we don’t feel] scared, for sure. But you open your eyes more wide.”
In an indication of the complexities of the geography and history of the region, the majority of residents in Narva speak Russian and some are sympathetic to Moscow.
It makes the city a potential soft spot for any Russian attack under the guise of coming to the aide of the Russian nationals who live in Narva.
Any such move, though, would trigger an allied response under one of the founding principles of NATO – an attack on one is an attack on all.
There is no sense of fondness for the Russian government in most other parts of Estonia, including an island of about 9,000 people off the country’s western coast.
NATO commanders believe that Hiiumaa island could be another potential target for Moscow in any war with the West because of its strategic location in the Baltic Sea.
If Russian troops were to seize the territory, they would potentially have the ability to block access to the sea and isolate the Baltic states.
Such a prospect is one that the islanders are doing all they can to deter.
Estonian volunteers urge British civilians to learn to fight
We met a unit of citizen soldiers, faces painted army green, as they practised ambushes with rifles in the forest.
They said British civilians should also consider getting off their sofas and learning how to fight.
“It’s wrong to think that somebody else is coming to fight your war if you are not ready to defend yourself,” said Major Tanel Kapper, who commands the Estonian Defence League forces on the island.
Estonian military chiefs have doubled the size of their territorial defence force – the people who would support the much smaller professional army in a crisis – to 20,000 personnel after what Russia did in Ukraine two years ago.
That number comprises about 10,000 Defence League volunteers and the new addition of some 10,000 former conscript soldiers who are part of the military reserve.
‘We will kill as many of you as possible’
Polishing part of a rifle back at his base, a volunteer called Taavi, a father of two, said he decided to join the Defence League on Hiiumaa island along with about 14 friends last year in part as a response to the Ukraine war.
The construction worker said he did not want conflict, but was ready for combat if Russia invades.
“I have to take the weapon and try to protect my family, my home,” he said.
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A wake-up call from the Baltics?
Major Kapper had a warning for Moscow: “It will be a bloody mess if you come here. We will definitely kill as many of you as possible.”
As for whether he had a message to other NATO countries like the UK that maybe are not doing as much to bolster their defences, the officer said: “To wake up. It won’t stop in Ukraine. If we don’t stop them, then they will come further and further.”
Latvia bulking up its military due to Russia threat
There is a similar sense of urgency in next door Latvia, which reintroduced conscription last year after becoming the only Baltic state to halt mandatory military service in 2006.
The country plans to double the size of its armed forces – professionals and reserves – to 61,000 by 2032.
“War [in Ukraine] is already happening, so it’s not a question: is Russia going to be aggressive? It already is aggressive,” said Krisjanis Karins, the Latvian foreign minister.
“The point of the draft is to beef up capable and equipped and trained reservists,” he told Sky News in an interview on the sidelines of a major security conference in Munich in February.
“It’s not replacing the professional army, it’s augmenting the professional army.”
Asked whether it would make a difference if the UK instated conscription, Mr Karins, a former prime minister, said: “I think it would make a difference if any European country and of course the larger countries, it would make a bigger difference.”
Sky News was invited to visit a training base in southeast Latvia, close to its border with Belarus, a close Russian ally, where a mix of conscripts and other recruits were going through a three-week basic training course with the National Guard.
‘Every man needs to at least try military life’
The National Guard is a branch of the armed forces that is made up of volunteers. At a time of war, they would offer support to the professional military.
“Bam! Bam! Bam!” the recruits shouted, rifles raised, mimicking the sound of gunshots, as they practised a response to an ambush on a muddy shooting range surrounded by forest.
Eduard, 18, was one of seven conscripts among the group of about 20 on the range. All seven were voluntary conscripts, rather than being ordered to serve.
“I think that every man in the world needs to at least try military life,” said Eduard.
A Latvian general explained how conscription is about much more than simply generating fresh boots on the ground – it is also about growing a sense of national service and a desire for each citizen to do their bit to help protect the country.
“Everyone has the right to serve – an obligation to serve – the nation,” said Major General Andis Dilans, the chief of the joint staff of the National Armed Forces, Latvia’s second most senior commander.
“This is really the cornerstone of democracy,” he said in an interview in the capital Riga.
“Therefore, we looked at this not just as a war-fighting force of the conscription, but looking at the connection between the public and the military in case of crisis, in case of war.”
How Lithuania borders a potential flashpoint
The final leg of our journey took us to the southwestern edge of Lithuania, which borders a heavily fortified Russian exclave called Kaliningrad.
The Russian territory also shares a border with Poland, another NATO state.
It means the only way for vehicles, such as lorries loaded with goods, coaches carrying passengers, or ordinary cars to travel between the exclave and mainland Russia is by transiting through Lithuania and into Belarus.
The crossing was calm when we visited, with a long queue of lorries on the Russian side, waiting to be allowed into Lithuania.
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A border guard said the number of vehicles – about 300 per day in total, moving in and out – had roughly halved since 2022 because Western sanctions had limited the types of goods that are permitted to be transited through Lithuania.
Communication between the guards on either side of a long wire, fence, topped in sections with barbed wire and bristling with cameras, had also been all but severed.
In the past, officials, who might have been stationed at the crossing point for two or three decades, would often speak with their Russian counterparts but that has stopped completely.
A mobile phone line still exists that can be called in an emergency, but the guard said that the Russian side does not tend to pick up.
Another potential flashpoint is a nearby strip of land, about 60 miles long, that connects Kaliningrad with Belarus and is bordered by Lithuania and Poland.
It is called the Suwalki Gap.
The concern among NATO commanders is that if Russia were to capture the corridor, it would provide another way to cut off access to the Baltic states.
Gitanas Nauseda, Lithuania’s president, summed up the response to the threat next door.
“All Baltic countries, Poland and other countries of the eastern flank of the NATO do a lot in order to utilise all the possibilities of [the] collective defence system, called NATO,” he said in an interview.
“But we also do a lot individually by increasing our defence spending, by closely cooperating with our neighbours and my country is especially active in this field.”
It is why a growing number of citizens in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are volunteering to serve.
But their ability to deter Russia may depend on whether the citizens of other allies follow suit.
The body of an Israeli hostage who was captured by Hamas militants while on a cycling trip has been recovered from Gaza, the Israeli military has said.
The Hostages and Missing Families Forum said Ron Benjamin, 53, was riding his bike in the Kibbutz Be’eri in Israel when he was taken hostage during the 7 October attack.
The group said he was a “family man who loved cycling” and that he “used to go out for a ride every Saturday, just as he did on that fateful Saturday when he was taken hostage”.
It added: “Ron loved traveling in Israel and around the world, and he loved music.”
The Israeli military said on Saturday that Mr Benjamin’s body was recovered by its forces operating in Gaza.
Chief military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said Mr Benjamin was “brutally murdered by Hamas terrorists at the Mefalsim Intersection, and his body was kidnapped to Gaza”.
Mr Hagari said Mr Benjamin were found along with three other murdered hostages whose repatriation was announced on Friday.
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The remains of Itzhak Gelerenter, 56, Amit Buskila, 28, and Shani Louk, 22, were discovered in an overnight operation carried out by Israel’s military and intelligence agency Shin Bet, Mr Hagari said.
They were killed at the Nova music festival on the day of the Hamas attack.
The Israeli military, citing intelligence information, has said all four hostages were killed on 7 October.
They were among the 252 people seized by Hamas-led Palestinian gunmen during the attack.
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Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico remains in a stable but serious condition as the man accused of attempting to assassinate him appeared in court for the first time.
Health minister Zuzana Dolinkova said further two-hour surgery on Friday “contributed to a positive prognosis” for the 59-year-old, who was shot five times at point blank range while greeting supporters in the former mining town of Handlova on Wednesday.
However, although awake at the hospital in Banska Bystrica, where Mr Fico was taken by helicopter after being shot, his condition still made it impossible to transport him to the capital, Bratislava.
Deputy prime minister Robert Kalinak has said there was no need to formally take over Mr Fico’s official duties.
The suspected gunman was tackled to the ground and arrested at the scene of the attack and the first assassination attempt of a European political leader for more than 20 years.
He has previously been named as 71-year-old Juraj Cintula, a former shopping centre security guard who also writes poetry.
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The special criminal court in Pezinok, a small town outside the capital, Bratislava, was guarded by officers wearing balaclavas and carrying automatic weapons for his court appearance.
News media were not allowed in for the hearing and reporters were kept behind a gate outside.
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Officers had taken the suspect, who has been charged with attempted murder, to his home in the town of Levice on Friday and seized a computer and some documents, according to local media.
The attack sent shockwaves throughout Europe and raised concerns over the already polarised and febrile political situation in Slovakia.
Mr Fico has long been a divisive figure.
His return to power last year on a pro-Russian, anti-American ticket fuelled worries among fellow EU and NATO members over the country’s direction.
Slovakia had previously been one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters, but on taking office Mr Fico halted arms supplies to the nation battling invading Russian forces.
Thousands of demonstrators have repeatedly rallied in the capital and around the country to protest against his policies.
The bodies of three Israeli hostage taken by Hamas have been recovered in Gaza.
The remains were discovered in an overnight operation carried out by Israel’s military and intelligence agency Shin Bet, said chief military spokesman Daniel Hagari.
Itzhak Gelerenter, 56, Amit Buskila, 28, and Shani Louk, 22, were killed at the Nova music festival on 7 October, with their bodies then taken into Gaza by Hamas militants.
Ms Louk’s body was seen face-down in a pick-up truck travelling through Gaza in a video that was shared widely on social media after the hostages were taken.
“They were celebrating life in the Nova music festival and they were murdered by Hamas,” said Mr Hagari.
He said their families have been notified.
“Our hearts go out to them, to the families at this difficult time. We will leave no stone unturned, we will do everything in our power to find our hostages and bring them home.”
The military did not give immediate details on where their bodies were found.
Ms Louk’s father has said the return of his daughter’s body to her family has been a form of closure.
Nissim Louk told the Israeli newspaper Haaretz his daughter “radiated light, to her and those who surrounded her, and in her death she still does”.
He added: “She is a symbol of the people of Israel, between light and darkness. Her inner and outer beauty that shone for all the world to see is a special one.”
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Speaking about the video that was circulated online after she was taken, Amit Louk said: “I never thought I was going to be in contact with this type of video, seeing my sister in that brutal position.
“And just in that moment, the whole family just crashed.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the deaths “heartbreaking”, saying: “We will return all of our hostages, both the living and the dead.”
Meanwhile, Professor Hagai Levine, a member of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, has said the recovery of the bodies is a “painful reminder” of those who are still in captivity.
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Child with rare genetic disorder stuck in Gaza
“We do not lose hope. We are preparing for the return of the hostages that are alive,” he added.
Israel has been operating in the Gaza Strip’s southern city of Rafah, where it says it has intelligence that hostages are being held.
Hamas-led militants killed around 1,200 people, mainly civilians, and abducted around 250 others in the 7 October attack.
Around half of those have since been freed, most in swaps for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel during a ceasefire in November.
Israel says around 100 hostages are still captive in Gaza, along with the bodies of around 30 more.
Israel’s campaign in Gaza since the attack has killed more than 35,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials.
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Gaza situation ‘a complete disaster’
Mr Netanyahu has vowed to both eliminate Hamas and bring all the hostages back.
He faces pressure to resign, and the US has threatened to scale back its support over the humanitarian situation in Gaza.
Israelis are divided into two main camps: those who want the government to put the war on hold and free the hostages, and others who think the hostages are an unfortunate price to pay for eradicating Hamas.