
NHL trade grades megafile: Report cards for every big trade
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adminThe 2024 NHL trade deadline is Friday, March 8 at 3 p.m. ET/noon PT. Some big deals occurred early this season, including Elias Lindholm to the Vancouver Canucks, Sean Monahan to the Winnipeg Jets, and Chris Tanev to the Dallas Stars.
We’re breaking down and grading all of the biggest moves from the 2023-24 trade season here, with analysis from ESPN reporters Greg Wyshynski and Ryan S. Clark.
Jump to a deal:
Mantha (VGK)
Lyubushkin (TOR)
Tanev (DAL)
Monahan (WPG)
Lindholm (VAN)
The Vegas Golden Knights landed Anthony Mantha, sending a 2024 second-round pick and a 2026 fourth-round pick to the Washington Capitals. The Capitals are retaining 50% of Mantha’s salary.
It’s possible that trading for Mantha in 2024 will go down as one of Kelly McCrimmon’s most strategic moves during his time as the general manager of the Golden Knights.
McCrimmon and the Golden Knights front office have dealt with this exact situation before. A year ago, Mark Stone was moved to long-term injured reserve after having a second back surgery in 12 months. They took advantage of the cap space that came with moving Stone to LTIR to trade for a pending UFA in Ivan Barbashev. Barbashev would play a key role in helping Vegas to its first Stanley Cup. It also paved the way for Vegas and Barbashev to subsequently agree to a five-year contract worth $5 million annually.
Fast forward to Monday when they had to move Stone to LTIR because he sustained an upper-body injury. That freed up more than $7.2 million in cap space that allowed the Golden Knights to go in a number of directions.
They decided on Mantha, which could prove to be a rather prudent decision.
Vegas is banking on the notion that Mantha can be a success similar to what they found in Barbashev. It’s entirely possible, considering the Golden Knights have seen it before with Adin Hill, Jack Eichel, Alex Pietrangelo, Barbashev and Stone, among others; these outsiders all assimilated and carved a place within the lineup.
Mantha also fits within the Golden Knights’ premise that the sum is greater than the whole of its parts. He’ll be the ninth player on their roster who has more than 10 goals this season, and the 12th player who has more than 20 points. Remember, Mantha’s third 20-goal season came while playing for a team that was last in the Eastern Conference in goals.
While Mantha fills a need, an argument can be had that the strongest part of this deal for the Golden Knights is the price tag. Having the Capitals retain 50% of Mantha’s salary means they’ll have $4.426 million in deadline cap space left, according to Cap Friendly.
Then there’s this: The Golden Knights didn’t have to part with any of their first-round picks to get this one over the finish line. Between that and the cap space they have available, it leaves the Golden Knights with the ability to create an attractive package should they seek to add more help between now and Friday’s deadline.
Being seven points out of the wild-card race with more than 20 games left in their season meant the Capitals were at a crossroads, with the trade deadline quickly approaching.
Do they decide to hold firm with the hope of getting back to the playoffs after missing last season? Or would it make more sense for them to parlay their pending UFAs into draft capital rather than risk losing them for nothing?
The Capitals chose the latter, with the full understanding that this deadline gives them the chance to restock what was once one of the amplest farm systems in the NHL.
Moving on from Mantha was about getting the strongest possible return — with the caveat that they’re not the only team that has a top-six/top-nine forward that could be enticing for a Cup contender. This year’s market is expected to see players such as Pavel Buchnevich, Jake Guentzel and Reilly Smith all get traded to contenders.
What they received for Mantha allowed them to jump back into the second round of this summer’s draft, having previously traded their original second-rounder. But it also means the Capitals have quite a bit of draft capital over the next three years.
They now have 23 draft picks over the next three years, and could add more. The Capitals have pending UFAs such as Nic Dowd, Joel Edmundson and Max Pacioretty that could lead to them receiving even more draft picks that could help with building a stronger future. — Ryan S. Clark
The Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Ilya Lyubushkin from the Anaheim Ducks in a three-team trade that also involved the Carolina Hurricanes. The Leafs received Lyubushkin and the rights to prospect forward Kirill Slepets, with the Ducks receiving the Leafs’ 2025 third-round pick while retaining 50% of Lyubushkin’s $2.75 million salary.
As for the Hurricanes, they received the Leafs’ 2024 sixth-round pick for serving as a third-party broker that will pay 25% of Lyubushkin’s salary.
Getting creative with the salary cap has been part of the Leafs’ strategy over the past several years. It’s become even more of a challenge this season when it comes to strengthening the Leafs’ defense. Both John Klingberg and Conor Timmins are on injured reserve while Jake Muzzin is on long-term injured reserve after he was ruled out for the regular season and playoffs with a cervical spine issue.
Then there are the more recent developments related to the health of the Leafs’ blue line. Timothy Liljegren missed a second straight game with an undisclosed injury while Mark Giordano left the Leafs’ 4-2 win Thursday with a head injury in the first period. That led to winger Mitch Marner filing in on defense — which was an option that Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said he even thought about before puck drop.
What Leafs GM Brad Treliving accomplished was getting reinforcements in the form of a sizable right-handed shot who not only strengthens their depth but provides them a more defensive-minded option — at 25% of his salary. Cap Friendly projects the Leafs will have $2.134 million deadline cap space. It’s enough room for them to think about another move before next Friday’s deadline.
It also helps that there’s a familiarity with Lyubushkin and the Leafs. He gives them another option for a penalty kill that has struggled this season with a 77.6% success rate, which ranks 24th. His 31-game stint with the Leafs saw him finish with six points in the regular season. Lyubushkin had a rocky postseason experience, as he was seventh among Leafs defensemen in ice time, yet he was on the ice for four goals at 5-on-5 which was tied for the second most on the team, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Could the Leafs have gone after other right-handed options? Sean Walker continues to be mentioned in the right-handed defenseman market. But the Philadelphia Flyers remain in the hunt for a playoff spot, currently third in the Metropolitan Division.
Matt Dumba, Alexandre Carrier or Tyson Barrie, the latter of whom also played for the Leafs, could have been potential targets. But Dumba has a $3.9 million cap hit. Carrier is slightly lower at $2.5 million, while Barrie checks in at $4.5 million. So getting Lyubushkin at his rate was a clear win.
The Leafs were also able to get the rights to 24-year-old Slepets, who has eight goals and 19 points in 53 games for Amur Khabarovsk in the KHL.
In sum, the Leafs were able to fill a need here, and struck quickly in a right-handed defenseman market that now has one fewer name. And they did it without having to use up much cap space.
This was a solid move. But where it gets tricky for the Ducks is that they could have sought one more draft pick because of the premium they face with retention slots at this year’s trade deadline.
The Ducks have a chance to use this deadline to make one for the NHL’s most promising farm systems even stronger. Adam Henrique is the most attractive option in the second-line center market. Frank Vatrano is one of the more sought-after top-six/top-nine wingers, while Sam Carrick provides contenders seeking a bottom-six option on a team-friendly contract.
Henrique is a pending UFA with a $5.825 million cap hit while Vatrano has two years left at $3.65 million per season. Carrick is also a pending UFA, with a budget-friendly $850,00 cap hit. The expectation is the Ducks will likely have to retain salary should they trade Henrique and Vatrano. Carrick’s cap hit should hypothetically be an easier one to manage, but it’s possible that it could prove challenging depending upon a team’s specific situation.
But here’s what pushes the grade to a B for the Ducks: While they were able to get a draft pick, they could have gone after more just because of the value retention spots have for teams seeking to add more draft capital this time of year.
Then again, it might not matter considering the haul they can likely get for Henrique and Vatrano.
Being a third-party broker is emblematic of two tenets that have become hallmarks of the Don Waddell era: Gaining draft capital and having quite a bit of cap space at an opportune time.
A three-year draft cycle generally means having 21 picks — seven in each year — assuming a team does not trade those picks. The Hurricanes have had a total of 30 draft picks over the past three years. This trade now gives them 10 picks in this summer’s draft, and another chance to add more depth to their farm system. Or they’ll package some of those picks to make additions of their own.
Cap Friendly projects the Hurricanes will have a little more than $5.8 million in deadline cap space. That leaves them with quite a bit of room to take an active role at the deadline should they seek to add help as they seek to reach the Eastern Conference finals for a second-consecutive season — and advance to the Stanley Cup Final this time around. — Ryan S. Clark
The Dallas Stars landed defenseman Chris Tanev from the Calgary Flames, in exchange for defenseman Artem Grushnikov, the Stars’ 2024 second-round pick and a conditional 2026 third-round pick (the pick changes hands if the Stars make the 2024 Stanley Cup Final). The Stars also received the rights to University of Massachusetts goaltender Cole Brady.
In order to facilitate the deal, the New Jersey Devils will pick up 50% of Tanev’s salary, and were sent Dallas’ fourth-round pick in the 2026 draft as compensation for doing so.
The salary cap inherently discourages transactions because of its fiscal constrictions. At the same time, it encourages some managerial ingenuity.
That was on full display Wednesday night when Stars GM Jim Nill used a three-team trade to acquire the best defenseman at the deadline with an expiring contract, for a miniscule cap hit and without having to sacrifice a first-round pick. It’s a trade that sets up Dallas for a Stanley Cup run and protects the Stars’ cap space and assets for further roster augmentation before next week’s NHL trade deadline.
It’s a major W for Big D.
Tanev, 34, is the quintessential “last piece of the puzzle” player for the 2024 deadline. He’s a 14-year veteran who plays on the right side. He’s a rugged throwback who is considered one of the NHL’s most effective defensemen, but one who can also break out the puck offensively. He ranks second overall in the NHL in blocked shots (171). He’s played his entire career in the Western Conference, so he knows the Stars’ playoff competition quite well.
It’ll be fascinating to see where coach Pete DeBoer ends up using Tanev on his back end, because he has options. Among the natural left side defensemen on the roster are Esa Lindell, Ryan Suter and 22-year-old Thomas Harley, who is second on Dallas in average ice time this season and has been playing with star defenseman Miro Heiskanen.
Also a natural left side defenseman: Heiskanen, who has been playing on his off side with a number of teammates this season. Pairing Tanev with Heiskanen would allow Dallas’s best defenseman to move back to the left side and go full throttle offensively, knowing that Tanev has the back end covered. It’s a role Tanev has played for defensemen ranging from Quinn Hughes to Noah Hanifin.
Thanks to the salary retention by the Flames and Devils, Tanev has a cap hit of just $1.125 million, which is lower than that of defenseman Jani Hakanpää, and Chris Tanev is slightly better than Hakanpää.
The Stars essentially traded a 2024 second-round pick, a 2026 fourth-round pick and Grushnikov for Tanev. They could afford to trade Grushnikov, as defense is an organizational position of strength. The 2026 third-round pick is conditional: Calgary receives it if the Stars make the Stanley Cup Final, which they’ll gladly ante up.
The Stars also snagged a goalie prospect in Cole Brady from the Devils. More on him in a bit.
The reason we can’t go all the way to ‘A+’ or ‘A’ on this one is that Tanev is 34 years old, he has played 773 games over 14 years and he’s played 70 games in a season only twice in his career. He’s got some miles on him. But that’s why the Stars wanted him: His experience, his savvy and his will to win his first Stanley Cup.
Overall, a tremendous trade for the Stars.
We praised GM Craig Conroy for the return he received in the Elias Lindholm trade with Vancouver, and hence were interested in seeing what he could pull at the trade deadline for Tanev, Noah Hanifin and potentially Jacob Markstrom. Looking at this trade … well, he still has Hanifin and potentially Jacob Markstrom.
Conroy told Fan 960 in Calgary that there was “lots and lots” of interest in Tanev from playoff contenders and teams outside the playoff picture. Whatever the market was for him, Conroy didn’t leverage it enough.
For 50% salary retention, Calgary acquired a 2024 second-round pick that could be low enough to essentially be a third-rounder given how good Dallas is this season; defenseman Artem Grushnikov, whom we will discuss in a moment; and a conditional 2026 third-round pick that only manifests if Dallas makes the Stanley Cup Final this season. There is a possible future reality in the NHL multiverse in which the Flames and Stars meet in the first round, in which Calgary will attempt to cost itself a third-round draft pick.
In Grushnikov, the Flames have acquired someone they hope becomes Chris Tanev, basically. They’re around the same size. They’re both defensive defensemen, with Conroy calling out Grushnikov’s penalty killing prowess and his work in the defensive zone. He has a high compete level and has fared well in his first AHL season. But he doesn’t have the puck movement skills of Tanev and there hasn’t been much evidence that he’s anything more than a big hitting defender who’s solid in his own end. Conroy seems fine with that one-dimensional play and the fact that he’s got proof of concept rather than the mystery of a draft pick.
Grushnikov’s development is the key to the deal. Otherwise, the Flames acquired a pick that might not be within the first 50 in the draft, and another pick that won’t exist if the Stars fall short of the Stanley Cup Final. That was for allegedly the most coveted defensive defenseman at the deadline who generated “lots and lots” of interest.
Well, this wasn’t the New Jersey-Calgary trade involving a goalie we thought we’d see at the deadline. But then again we also didn’t anticipate the Devils would be a salary cap retention intermediary at the deadline, either.
The Devils took on $1.125 million in dead cap space for a 2026 fourth-round pick from Dallas. They had the space to do so, with Dougie Hamilton on long-term injured reserve, taking more than $8.3 million off their cap.
The Devils had to trade a player rather than “future considerations” in the deal, so they sent unsigned goalie prospect Cole Brady to the Flames for Tanev, and then the Flames traded Brady to the Stars to complete the three-way deal.
Brady has played nine games at UMass this season with an .886 save percentage. He transferred there in 2022 after two seasons at Arizona State. The Devils took him in the fifth round in 2019. That New Jersey is punting on a goalie prospect should tell you all you need to know about their relationship with Brady and where he fits in their future plans. His rights expire this summer, making this just a name to satisfy a requirement and probably not much more. — Greg Wyshynski
This trade saw veteran center Sean Monahan dealt to the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for a 2024 first-round draft pick and a 2027 conditional third-round pick going back to the Montreal Canadiens.
This is going to go down as one of the greatest examples of asset management in the salary cap era.
In August 2022, the Canadiens and Calgary Flames made a trade. Montreal acquired Monahan in the final year of his contract, which carried a $6.375 million cap hit. Monahan’s star had dimmed after being one of the top centers in the league for the Flames from 2017-19. He has had two hip surgeries, a groin surgery and wrist surgery in the last few seasons.
The Flames wanted his salary off their roster, so they traded a conditional 2025 first-round pick to the Canadiens, who had plenty of cap room for Monahan.
He played only 25 games in his first season in Montreal, which were enough to inspire some hope that he was on the road back to effectiveness; the Habs signed him to a one-year, $1.985 million deal heading into 2023-24. Thanks to his point production, his minuscule cap hit and his expiring contract, Monahan became one of the most coveted centers ahead of the trade deadline.
The Canadiens traded Monahan to the Jets for another first-round pick.
It’s possible that even at the peak of his NHL production that Monahan would not have garnered two first-round picks in a trade. That he basically did through the Canadiens’ two trades — for a 29-year-old reclamation project with an expiring contract and a specious health history — is one of the best uses of salary cap space and value inflation in recent memory.
Kudos to GM Kent Hughes for a master class in asset management, aided by a trade market that was friendly to Monahan.
It’s difficult to talk about Monahan without talking about what might have been.
An NHL source confirms that the Jets were in pursuit of center Elias Lindholm before the Vancouver Canucks‘ aggressive courtship landed the Flames forward on Wednesday for a first-rounder, a conditional pick, a roster player and two prospects.
Lindholm is the better, more complete player, even if it could be argued that Monahan is having the better season. In an odd way, these two trades are mirror images of each other: Vancouver going big to get Lindholm based on everything he did before this season and Winnipeg trading a first-rounder based on everything Monahan did this season.
Monahan is a playmaking center and a power-play asset, although goal-scoring in either situation isn’t anywhere near his early-career efficiency. Coach Rick Bowness told me on Friday that he expects Monahan to start on a line with Cole Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers, two players that can find the back of the net for the Jets.
He should also provide a boost to their power play, which ranks 24th in the NHL (15.7%) this season.
Last month, I predicted the Jets would go all-in for a center. They’ve been a pleasant surprise this season — especially with their team defense — but still had a significant hole in their lineup behind Mark Scheifele, thanks to last summer’s trade of Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Los Angeles Kings.
They had Vladislav Namestnikov and Adam Lowry in the middle, with Perfetti and Gabriel Vilardi also available in the pivot. But Monahan gives them a legit No. 2 center, and one that Bowness believes also passes important character tests for the Jets off the ice.
I was thinking B-minus overall here, but bumped it to a B because of Monahan’s incredible cap value, a point of demarcation with Lindholm ($4.85 million). Overall, a solid pickup for a surprising contender, snagging one the trade board’s top remaining centers on an expiring contract. — Greg Wyshynski
The Vancouver Canucks acquired center Elias Lindholm from the Calgary Flames in exchange for forward Andrei Kuzmenko, defensemen Hunter Brzustewicz and Joni Jurmo, a 2024 first-round pick and a conditional 2024 fourth-round pick.
“He’s a team guy who gives it everything, every shift.”
That’s Canucks president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford’s assessment of Elias Lindholm … from the 2013 NHL draft. That’s when then-Carolina Hurricanes GM Rutherford selected him fifth overall, right before center Sean Monahan was taken by the Flames.
In acquiring Lindholm, the Canucks remove one of the biggest names from the NHL trade deadline board. (Ironically, Monahan, now with Montreal, might currently be the top center available at the deadline.) Lindholm was coveted by teams trying to add an elite two-way player on an expiring contract to their top six. The Colorado Avalanche had inquired about him. There was speculation that Boston was in the mix. But the Canucks jumped the line with an offer the Flames couldn’t refuse.
What does Lindholm bring to the Canucks? Versatility, for one. There’s been a years-long trend in the NHL in which traditional centers are also adept at producing on the wing. Lindholm certainly fits that template. He wins 55.5% of his faceoffs. As a team, Vancouver is 16th in the NHL (50%) in faceoff proficiency. Most importantly, Lindholm gives the Canucks the right-handed faceoff guy they sorely lacked on their depth chart.
Seriously, it’s like Lindholm was made in a lab for this Vancouver team. He can play on a power play that’s already in the top 10 (25%) in the NHL. He can bolster a penalty kill that’s middle of the pack (80%). He’s a tremendous 5-on-5 defender, in particular in puck recovery. He was second for the Selke Trophy in 2021-22, although that might be because he scored 42 goals along with playing stellar defensively. The Selke is funny like that.
He’s also insurance against the Canucks losing one of their vital players to injury at any point down the stretch. The most important number for Vancouver this season is 49, or the number of games J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes and Brock Boeser have played — in other words, all of them.
What do the Canucks bring to Lindholm? A chance to get back to the offensive force he was two years ago. One of the most desirable attributes in an NHL player is to thrive with high-end talent. Lindholm’s offensive apex came while playing on a line with Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau. His scoring dropped by 18 points after they left Calgary, propped up by his chemistry with Tyler Toffoli. Then Toffoli was traded to New Jersey, and Lindholm’s productivity fell off a cliff this season to under two points per 60 minutes (1.9) in all situations.
Vancouver can slot Lindholm with Miller, who had 67 points through 49 games. Or on a line with Pettersson and Boeser. He can play on their first power-play unit. It’s like going from an offensive boxed lunch in Calgary to a veritable buffet in Vancouver.
Given the Canucks’ cap situation next season, one assumes Lindholm is a rental. If that’s the case, fine: Lindholm is an outstanding acquisition, a nitro boost to a team already cruising at the top of the conference. But it did come at a cost.
There were two trades last season that might have informed this one.
When the Canucks traded center Bo Horvat to the Islanders, they received a roster player (Anthony Beauvillier), a top prospect (Aatu Raty) and a conditional first-round pick in 2023 that they flipped for defenseman Filip Hronek. Horvat ended up signing an eight-year extension with the Islanders a few days later.
The Blues traded center Ryan O’Reilly to the Maple Leafs last season in a complicated three-way trade with Minnesota that included salary retention. In the end, the Leafs gave up two prospects, a first-rounder, a second-rounder, a third-rounder and a fourth-rounder. O’Reilly left as a free agent for Nashville.
So how did the Flames do within that context? Pretty good, actually, especially considering they didn’t retain any salary.
Andrei Kuzmenko needed to get away from coach Rick Tocchet, who wanted him to play “the right way” and wasn’t going to give ice time to a player he believed was a defensive liability during this outstanding season for the Canucks. It didn’t matter that he had 39 goals as a 26-year-old rookie last season. He had to earn his time with the team’s top players and Tocchet felt he hadn’t.
So it’s off to Calgary, where he’s signed through next season at a $5.5 million average annual value. He had the Flames on his no-trade list. GM Craig Conroy and coach Ryan Huska sold him on the promise that Kuzmenko would be placed in offensively advantageous situations. Perhaps he and Jonathan Huberdeau could find some mutually beneficial chemistry.
It would be absolutely shocking if the name Yegor Sharangovich didn’t come up. The Flames acquired him from the Devils in the Toffoli trade, gave him almost three minutes more ice time a game, and watching his offense blossom to the point where Sharangovich (20) has one fewer goal than Toffoli (21) this season.
If Kuzmenko can’t recapture the magic, he’s a free agent in the summer of 2025.
Of the two prospects, Brzustewicz is more intriguing than Jurmo, although the latter defenseman has improved this season while playing in Finland. Brzustewicz is a puck-moving blue-liner who could top out at 100 points this season with the OHL Kitchener Rangers. There have been lingering questions about his ability to be an all-around player at the NHL level, but it’s hard to ignore that kind of offensive spark.
The Flames pulled a first-rounder for Lindholm too, albeit one that could practically be a high second-rounder given how good the Canucks are. That fourth-rounder turns into a third-rounder if the Canucks make the Western Conference final.
It’s a potentially impressive haul for (yet another) free agent who wasn’t signing back in Calgary. For a franchise that’s still reeling from those defections, it’s another strong step toward whatever the next phase of the Flames ends up being. — Greg Wyshynski
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Sports
Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time
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17 hours agoon
August 11, 2025By
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Associated Press
Aug 11, 2025, 12:07 PM ET
For the first time, Texas will open a college football season ranked No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25.
The Longhorns hardly have a mandate in the poll released Monday: They edged out Penn State by just five points in the closest preseason vote since 1998.
Texas received 25 first-place votes and 1,552 points to give the Southeastern Conference the preseason No. 1 team for a record fifth straight year. The Nittany Lions got 23 first-place votes and 1,547 points for their highest preseason ranking since they were No. 1 to open the 1997 season.
The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The Buckeyes received 11 first-place votes from the panel of 65 media members who cover college football. No. 4 Clemson got four first-place votes and No. 5 Georgia got one.
Notre Dame, Oregon (which got the final first-place vote), Alabama, LSU and Miami round out the top 10.
The SEC leads all conferences with 10 teams in the preseason Top 25, most ever by a conference and one more than a year ago. The SEC has four teams in the top 10 for the second straight year.
The Big Ten, which has won the past two national championships, has two of the top three teams in the poll for the third straight year and six in the Top 25 for the third year in a row.
Four Big 12 teams are ranked, with defending conference champion Arizona State the highest at No. 11. The Atlantic Coast Conference has three, led by Clemson.
The Longhorns have been on an upward trajectory since they were 5-7 in 2021, Steve Sarkisian’s first season. They have won 25 of their past 30 games and reached two straight CFP semifinals. Last year, they were ranked No. 1 four of five weeks from mid-September to mid-October, and they reached the SEC championship game in their first season in the conference.
“But this is a new year, new faces, new team, and obviously expectations are high for our program,” Sarkisian said at SEC media days. “I’m not naive to that. I don’t put my head in the sand, and expectations are very high. But I also say we’re the University of Texas, and the standard is the standard here, and that’s competing for championships year in and year out.”
Twelve Texas players were taken in the NFL draft, including three first-round picks, but elite recruiting and additions from the transfer portal should alleviate concerns about losses on the offensive line and at receiver. The defense brings back plenty of talent.
Still, Texas received just 38.5% of the first-place votes (25 of 65), the smallest share for a No. 1 team in the preseason poll since Georgia got 33.9% (22 of 65) in 2008.
The Longhorns have ended a season No. 1 in the AP poll three times (1963, 1969, 2005) but until now had never started a season higher than No. 2 (1962, 1965, 1970, 2005, 2009).
The second-ranked Nittany Lions are not only six points from being No. 1, they are 75 points ahead of the Buckeyes in what might be considered a slight to the national champs.
Penn State will have Drew Allar back under center for what many consider a light schedule ahead of a late September visit from Oregon before a Nov. 1 showdown at Ohio State.
The Buckeyes, in the preseason top five for the ninth straight year and 12th of the past 13, will have a new look with only five starters back on offense and three on defense.
“This team has its own identity,” coach Ryan Day said. “It wants to have its own identity, but it also wants to be the first Ohio State team to win back-to-back national championships.”
The opener against Texas will give the Buckeyes a good measure of themselves. Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz will be the third new starting quarterback in three years. Whoever gets the job will throw to one of the nation’s top players in Jeremiah Smith.
Day will also have another chance to figure out archrival and preseason No. 14 Michigan, which has beaten the Buckeyes for four straight years.
• Texas will try to become the 12th team to start and finish No. 1 since the AP preseason poll debuted in 1950. The last team to do it was Alabama in 2017.
• Notre Dame is in the preseason top 10 for the third time in four years. The Fighting Irish will have a new quarterback, CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey. The two played a combined eight snaps last season as Notre Dame went all the way to the CFP title game won by Ohio State.
• With Boise State at No. 25, all 12 teams in the 2024 College Football Playoff are ranked in the preseason. The Mountain West’s Broncos are the first team from a Group of Five conference to crack the preseason Top 25 since Tulane was No. 24 in 2023.
• No. 16 SMU, which returns quarterback Kevin Jennings from its CFP team, is in the preseason Top 25 for the first time in 40 years. The 1985 team was No. 3, finishing 6-5 and unranked.
Sports
AP preseason poll reaction: One big number for every team
Published
17 hours agoon
August 11, 2025By
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The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.

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Pamela MaldonadoAug 11, 2025, 01:00 PM ET
Close- Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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