The UK has no “credible” plan to buy all the weapons it needs after a huge jump in the cost of the nuclear deterrent helped to create a record funding gap, a group of MPs has warned.
Inflation and a weak pound also contributed to the hole of at least £16.9bn in a rolling, 10-year plan to procure equipment for the Army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force, the Public Accounts Committee said in a scathing report.
The actual deficit is likely to be closer to £30bn if all the capabilities required by the Army – rather than only those it can afford – are included in the costs, the MPs said on Friday.
The committee accused the Ministry of Defence (MoD) of putting off painful decisions about what equipment programmes would have to be cancelled for the plan to be affordable.
Instead, defence chiefs were found to have been basing their sums around the optimistic belief that the government would boost defence spending to 2.5% of national income from around 2.1% – even though there is no guarantee when this will happen.
The findings came after MPs and military experts expressed dismay at a failure by the Treasury to increase defence spending in the Spring Budget despite mounting security threats and at a time when friends and foes are ramping up their own military investments.
Dame Meg Hillier, the chair of the Public Accounts Committee, said: “In an increasingly volatile world, the Ministry of Defence’s lack of a credible plan to deliver fully funded military capability as desired by government leaves us in an alarming place.”
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She said this was not a new problem, with defence procurement characterised by ballooning costs and delays.
‘Clear deterioration in affordability’
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“We’re disappointed that not only are the same problems we’re used to seeing on display here, but they also appear to be getting worse,” Dame Hillier said.
“Despite a budget increase, this year’s plan shows a clear deterioration in affordability. The MoD must get a better grip, or it won’t be able to deliver the military capabilities our country needs.”
The committee said the £16.9bn gap in affordability was the largest since the MoD started publishing its rolling 10-year equipment plan in 2012.
It came despite the government increasing planned spending on military equipment over the ten years to 2033 – the period that the MPs were examining – by £46.3bn to £288.6bn from 12 months earlier.
However, any hope of balancing the books was then sunk by a £38.2bn rise in funding over the same period for the Defence Nuclear Organisation – which is charged with renewing a fleet of nuclear-armed submarines and the missiles and warheads it carries.
The MPs voiced concern the spiralling costs for what is the UK’s top defence priority could further squeeze the budget for its conventional military capabilities.
Adding to the pressure, the MoD said inflation would push up costs for the equipment programme by £10.9bn over the decade, while unfavourable foreign exchange rates – such as when buying equipment from US companies when the pound is weak against the dollar – would add a further £2.2bn.
“The MoD, however, is unwilling to address this deficit by making major decisions about cancelling programmes,” the report said.
“It asserts that such decisions should wait until after the next Spending Review, which is expected in 2024 but might conceivably be delayed by the forthcoming general election, the timing of which is also uncertain.”
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There was also a shortage of skilled officials to oversee the delivery of complex procurement programmes – the equipment plan covers some 1,800 different projects to buy everything from communications gear to warships.
In a sign of strain, only two out of 46 projects included in the Government Major Projects Portfolio – so the most important equipment programmes – are ranked as being highly likely to be delivered to time, budget and quality.
By contrast the successful delivery of five other big projects – including new communications technology, nuclear submarine reactors and missiles – are rated as unachievable.
Asked about the findings of the report, a Ministry of Defence spokesperson said: “Our Armed Forces stand ready to protect the UK and as a leading contributor to NATO, we continue to defend our national interests and those of our allies.
“We are delivering the capabilities our forces need – significantly increasing spending on defence equipment to £288.6 billion over the next decade, introducing a new procurement model to improve acquisition, and confirming our aspiration to spend 2.5% GDP on defence.
“By maintaining part of our equipment plan as uncommitted spend, we have the flexibility to better adapt to changing technology and emerging threats.”
The health secretary has said that the cabinet is aware of the “pressure” on Chancellor Rachel Reeves amid volatile markets and a challenging broader economic picture – but appealed for the public to “give her time”.
Wes Streeting argued that the public “underestimates” the “amount of heavy-lifting” Ms Reeves has had to do and will have to continue to do, as he declared “total confidence” in her leadership in a staunch defence of her handling of the economy.
Separately, international development minister Anneliese Dodds, who attends cabinet, told Sky News that Ms Reeves has been “very clear about the long-term plan for our country” and she herself is “confident in that long-term plan”.
The comments from the two key ministers come after the past week saw a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs, which has fuelled speculation of more spending cuts or tax rises.
Streeting has ‘total confidence in chancellor’s leadership’
Speaking at the Jewish Labour Movement’s annual conference in north London, the health secretary acknowledged the fierce competition among all government departments for any available public funding from the Treasury, and told party members that all ministers “have to make choices and trade-offs” in where funding goes.
Mr Streeting went on to say that the chancellor and her deputy, Darren Jones, have “the hardest job of all because they have to make those choices across every bit of government spending, and they have to think about what’s in the interests of our overall economy and how we get businesses growing”.
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Chancellor’s ‘pragmatic’ approach to China
He said: “I think people continue to underestimate both the amount of heavy lifting she has had to do in her first six months, and the amount of heavy lifting she will have to do in her next six months.
“And the cabinet doesn’t underestimate that – we understand the choices she has to make, the pressure she is under.”
As a result, cabinet ministers all “have a responsibility” to both “make tough choices and drive reform and value for money” within their departments, and also be “drivers of economic growth”.
“Nothing in the last six months has shaken my conviction that economic growth is the number one priority,” he said.
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Continuing his defence of the chancellor’s handling of the economy so far, Mr Streeting said she is “trying to break us out of what has been the status quo and the economic orthodoxy of more than a decade”.
“People need to give her time, and they need to not forget that, without [Sir Keir Starmer’s] leadership, certainly we wouldn’t have won the last general election.
“Without Rachel’s leadership, we wouldn’t have won the last general election either. She built Labour’s economic credibility out of the ashes they were left in after the Corbyn leadership. And she has built that trust, built up that plan, and now she’s following through.”
He declared that he has “total confidence in the leadership that Rachel’s providing, and the leadership that the cabinet is following and driving with her, because all of us have to deliver economic growth for our country”.
Minister ‘confident in chancellor’s long-term plan’
Speaking in a separate session at the conference, Ms Dodds noted “speculation” about the fiscal headroom (the amount of money the chancellor will have available to spend), but said: “We have to focus on actually the evidence.
“And when we look at the evidence, we can see that the UK government has a chancellor who is very clear about the long-term plan for our country. She’s been delivering on it.”
Ms Dodds, who also attends cabinet, pointed to a “new fiscal system”, the chancellor’s new Industrial Strategy Council, as well as “record levels of investment under Rachel Reeves’s leadership”.
“I think it’s really important for us to focus on those fundamentals, on what has been achieved in a very short space of time. And I’m confident in that long-term plan that Rachel has been setting out.
“And we can already see the benefit of that, frankly, in terms of the UK’s reputation when it comes to public finances, but economic management more generally. Certainly that’s what I’ve heard internationally and keep hearing just now.”
Chancellor accused of having ‘fled to China’
The pair were speaking as the chancellor holds meetings in China in a bid to drum up investment for the UK economy, having ignored calls to cancel the long-planned trip because of economic turmoil at home.
Opposition parties have accused the chancellor of having “fled to China” rather than explain how she will fix the UK’s flatlining economy, and former prime minister Boris Johnson said Ms Reeves had “been rumbled” and said she should “make her way to HR and collect her P45 – or stay in China”.
Speaking during her trip, Ms Reeves said she would not alter her economic plans, with the October budget designed to return the UK to economic stability, and reiterated that “growth is the number one mission of this government”.
She said that “action” will be taken to meet the fiscal rules. That action is reported to include deeper spending cuts than the 5% efficiency savings already expected to be announced later this year, while cuts to the welfare bill are also said to be under consideration.
Anti-corruption minister Tulip Siddiq could lose her job if the investigation into her properties finds she broke government rules, a cabinet member has suggested.
She has referred herself to the prime minister’s independent adviser on ministers’ interests, Sir Laurie Magnus, following reports she lived in properties in London linked to allies of her aunt, Sheikh Hasina, the deposed prime minister of Bangladesh.
There have also been questions about trips she took to Russia alongside her aunt.
Ms Siddiq insists she has “done nothing wrong”.
As economic secretary to the Treasury, Ms Siddiq oversees anti-corruption efforts in the financial sector as part of her brief.
Mr Kyle told Sky News: “With Tulip, she’s referred herself straight away to this.
“There is a process under way and we know full well it will be a functional process, and the outcomes of it will be stuck to by the prime minister and this government, a complete contrast to what we’ve had in the past.”
He gave this answer after Trevor pointed out Labour would have been calling for a sacking if the roles were reversed and the Tories were in power.
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‘Tulip Siddiq will lose job if she broke rules’
Mr Kyle contrasted his party’s stance with the Conservative one – saying he called for an investigation into allegations of bullying from Priti Patel, and she “had to be dragged to that inquiry”.
He added that he let the inquiry pan out.
“The results came out, she was found guilty, and no action happened,” Mr Kyle said.
His response came after Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch called for Ms Siddiq to be sacked yesterday.
Shadow chancellor Mel Stride repeated the calls today to Sky News.
He said: “What is not right is that the prime minister is not moving her out of that position and getting her to step down
“Because she is the anti-corruption minister, she has serious charges laid against her now, or serious accusations around corruption, and it’s going to be really impossible for her to do that job under current circumstances.
“So she should step down, and the prime minister needs to get a grip of that.”
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