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Inflation ticked up in the latest figures from the U.S. government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released March 12. It’s not a huge rise, but enough to keep the eroding value of the dollar in the headlines, feed Americans’ dissatisfaction with the economy, and be received as very bad news by the White House. The president and his allies work hard to claim credit for what they tout as a thriving economy, but all they’ve done is link the Biden brand to rising prices and a general distaste for the president’s management.

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Δ Rising Prices, Again

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3 percent in January,” according to the BLS. “Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.”

That’s a big improvement over the 9.1 percent that inflation hit in 2022. But it’s still a reminder to the public that the money in their wallets buys less with each passing day. It’s also an open-handed slapthough with the sting felt by consumersto free-spending politicians who long pantomimed concern about inflation while openly pursuing policies that drove prices to rise.

“For years, economic thinkers on the left pushed for more government spending and urged the Federal Reserve to be less paranoid about inflation, with the goal of driving down unemployment as low as possible,” Victoria Guida wrote last month for Politico.

President Joe Biden and company eagerly adopted the idea, pushing for not billions, but trillions of dollars in spending, deficits, and debt on the theory that Americans would like the results.

But “Americans don’t seem very enthused,” Guida added. “Because they really hate inflation.” Inflation Causes Pain

People dislike inflation because it’s death to budgeting, savings, and financial planning. Inflation creates a race between wages and prices, making it difficult to know if income will cover the same groceries, rent, and other costs that it did in the past.

“Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.4 percent from January to February,” BLS announced the same day it released CPI figures. That said, over the past year, there was “a 1.1-percent increase in real average weekly earnings” according to the same news release. But not all measures point to wages keeping up.

“Inflation-adjusted wages have shrunk by 3.7 percent since the end of 2020,” the Manhattan Institute’s Stephen Miran commented in November, based on the Employment Cost Index, a different BLS measure that shows wages still struggling to catch up with the declining value of the dollar. “Worse, the drop in real wages erased all gains made in the late 2010s.”

Either way, it’s enough to say that inflation makes life unpredictable and causes pain.

In the latest monthly survey by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, inflation ranked as the top economic issue on people’s minds as they determined their votes for president, picked by 67 percent of respondents. Almost two-thirds of respondents said they “cut back on non-essential spending, like vacations, eating out, or entertainment” in response to rising prices; half “cut back on spending for food and everyday necessities.”

Unsurprisingly, people are not happy with politicians who visit inflation upon them. In that survey, 45 percent said President Biden’s economic policies hurt the economy (31 percent said they helped) and 59 percent disapproved of his handling of economic issues (36 percent approved). Americans agree with the White House that the president’s self-labeled “Bidenomics” have had an impact, but they don’t like the results. Many economists concur, specifically when it comes to inflation. Government Irresponsibility With Money Causes Inflation

“Inflation comes when aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply,” economist John Cochrane of the Hoover Institution and the Cato Institute wrote this month for the International Monetary Fund. “The source of demand is not hard to find: in response to the pandemic’s dislocations, the US government sent about $5 trillion in checks to people and businesses, $3 trillion of it newly printed money, with no plans for repayment. Other countries enacted similar fiscal expansions and reaped inflation in proportion.”

True, the spending frenzy began when Donald Trump was president, but Biden embraced the idea as his own. Now, the White House boasts of vast “generational investments” that “reverse decades of disinvestment in public goods,” but there’s a direct connection between a tidal wave of government borrowing and spending and the eroding value of people’s money.

“The mantras of the 2010s’secular stagnation,’ ‘modern monetary theory,’ ‘stimulus’which preached that prosperity needed only for the government to borrow or print a huge amount of money and hand it out, are in the dustbin. You asked for it. We tried it. We got inflation, not boom,” adds Cochrane.

That leaves the Biden administration wearing the consequences of the “Bidenomics” spending it touted as an albatross around its own neck. There is no escape from policies which politicians deliberately and publicly embraced when the public turns against them.

“There’s a healthy amount of fear and introspection happening among the architects of these efforts that folks aren’t necessarily buying what we’re selling,” a prominent progressive told Politico’s Guida. Brace for More of the Same

Unfortunately for anybody who fears irresponsible government largesse leading to ever-more economic chaos, the Biden administration seems determined to double down on high spending and massive borrowing in its economic policies going forward.

“For fiscal year 2025, which begins on October 1 of this year, Biden is asking Congress to spend $7.3 trillion while the federal government will collect just $5.5 trillion in taxes,” Reason’s Eric Boehm reported this week. “That will necessitate borrowing $1.8 trillion to make ends meet. Over the 10-year window covered by the president’s budget plan, federal revenues would exceed $70 trillion, but Biden is proposing to spend $86.6 trillion.”

With floods of money from the government linked to eroding purchasing power, it’s interestingfor a certain value of the wordto contemplate what BLS news releases about prices and wages might look like in the years to come. And to anticipate the corresponding pain from pinched budgets.

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Business

Food inflation highest in almost a year – more to come, industry warns

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Food inflation highest in almost a year - more to come, industry warns

Food inflation has hit its highest level in almost a year and could continue to go up, according to an industry body.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported a 2.6% annual lift in food costs during April – the highest level since May last year and up from a 2.4% rate the previous month.

The body said there was a clear risk of further increases ahead due to rising costs, with the sector facing £7bn of tax increases this year due to the budget last October.

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It warned that shoppers risked paying a higher price – but separate industry figures suggested any immediate blows were being cushioned by the effects of a continuing supermarket price war.

Kantar Worldpanel, which tracks trends and prices, said spending on promotions reached its highest level this year at almost 30% of total sales over the four weeks to 20 April.

It said that price cuts, mainly through loyalty cards, helped people to make the most of the Easter holiday with almost 20% of items sold at respective market leaders Tesco and Sainsbury’s on a price match.

More on Inflation

Its measure of wider grocery inflation rose to 3.8%, however.

Wider BRC data showed overall shop price inflation at -0.1% over the 12 months to April, with discounting largely responsible for weaker non-food goods.

But its chief executive, Helen Dickinson, said retailers were “unable to absorb” the surge in costs they were facing.

“The days of shop price deflation look numbered,” she said, as food inflation rose to its highest in 11 months, and non-food deflation eased significantly.

“Everyday essentials including bread, meat, and fish, all increased prices on the month. This comes in the same month retailers face a mountain of new employment costs in the form of higher employer National Insurance Contributions and increased NLW [national living wage],” she added.

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Five hacks to beat rising bills

While retail sales growth has proved somewhat resilient this year, it is believed big rises to household bills in April – from things like inflation-busting water, energy and council tax bills – will bite and continue to keep a lid on major purchases.

Also pressing on both consumer and business sentiment is Donald Trump’s trade war – threatening further costs and hits to economic growth ahead.

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A further BRC survey, also published on Tuesday, showed more than half of human resources directors expect to reduce hiring due to the government’s planned Employment Rights Bill.

The bill, which proposes protections for millions of workers including guaranteed minimum hours, greater hurdles for sacking new staff and increased sick pay, is currently being debated in parliament.

The BRC said one of the biggest concerns was that guaranteed minimum hours rules would hit part-time roles.

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Business

Inside the Vietnamese factory preparing for the worst since Trump’s tariff threat

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Inside the Vietnamese factory preparing for the worst since Trump's tariff threat

On the outskirts of Ho Chi Minh City, factory workers at Dony Garment have been working overtime for weeks.

Ever since Donald Trump announced a whopping 46% trade tariff on Vietnam, they’ve been preparing for the worst.

They’re rushing through orders to clients in three separate states in America.

Sewing machines buzz with the sound of frantic efforts to do whatever they can before Mr Trump’s big decision day. He may have put his “Liberation Day” tariffs on pause for 90 days, but no one in this factory is taking anything for granted.

Staff have been working overtime
Image:
Staff have been working overtime

Workers like Do Thi Anh are feeling the pressure.

“I have two children to raise. If the tariffs are too high, the US will buy fewer things. I’ll earn less money and I won’t be able to support my children either. Luckily here our boss has a good vision,” she tells me.

Do Thi Anh
Image:
Do Thi Anh

That vision was crafted back in 2021. When COVID struck, they started to look at diversifying their market.

Previously they used to export 40% of their garments to America. Now it’s closer to 20%.

The cheery-looking owner of the firm, Pham Quang Anh, tells me with a resilient smile: “We see it as dangerous to depend on one or two markets. So, we had to lose profit and spend on marketing for other markets.”

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You asked, we listened, the Trump 100 podcast is continuing every weekday at 6am

That foresight could pay off in the months to come. But others are in a far more vulnerable state.

Some of Mr Pham’s colleagues in the industry export all their garments to America. If the 46% tariff is enforced, it could destroy their businesses.

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Doubts US will start making what Vietnam delivers

Down by the Saigon River, young couples watch on as sunset falls between the glimmering skyscrapers that stand as a testament to Vietnam’s miracle growth.

Cuong works in finance
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Cuong works in finance

Cuong, an affluent-looking man who works in finance, questions the logic and likelihood that America will start making what Vietnam has spent years developing the labour, skills and supply chains to reliably deliver.

“The United States’ GDP is so high. It’s the largest in the world right now. What’s the point in trying to get jobs from developing countries like Vietnam and other Asian nations? It’s unnecessary,” he tells me.

But the Trump administration claims China is using Vietnam to illegally circumvent tariffs, putting “Made in Vietnam” labels on Chinese products.

There’s no easy way to assess that claim. But market watchers believe Vietnam does need to signal its willingness to crack down on so-called “trans-shipments” if it wants to cut a deal with Washington.

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Vietnam can’t afford to alienate China

The US may also demand a major cutback in Chinese manufacturing in Vietnam.

That will be a much harder deal to strike. Vietnam can’t afford to alienate its big brother.

Luke Treloar, head of strategy at KPMG in Vietnam
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Luke Treloar, head of strategy at KPMG in Vietnam

Luke Treloar, head of strategy at KPMG in Vietnam, is however cautiously optimistic.

“If Vietnam goes into these trade talks saying we will be a reliable manufacturer of the core products you need and the core products America wants to sell, the outcome could be good,” he says.

But the key question is just how much influence China will have on Vietnamese negotiators.

Anything above 10-20% tariffs would be intensively challenging

This moment is a huge test of Vietnam’s resilience.

Anything like 46% tariffs would be ruinous. Analysts say 10-20% would be survivable. Anything above, intensely challenging.

But this looming threat is also an opportunity for Vietnam to negotiate and grow. Not, though, without some very testing concessions.

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Politics

US DOJ requests 20-year sentence for Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky

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US DOJ requests 20-year sentence for Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky

US DOJ requests 20-year sentence for Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky

Alex Mashinsky, the founder and former CEO of the now-defunct cryptocurrency lending platform Celsius, faces a 20-year prison sentence as the US Department of Justice (DOJ) is seeking a severe penalty for his fraudulent activity.

The US DOJ on April 28 filed the government’s sentencing memorandum against Mashinsky, recommending a 20-year prison sentence due to his fraudulent actions leading to multibillion-dollar losses by Celsius customers.

The 97-page memo mentioned that Celsius users were unable to access approximately $4.7 billion in crypto assets after the platform halted withdrawals on June 12, 2022.

“The Court should sentence Alexander Mashinsky to twenty years’ imprisonment as just punishment for his years-long campaign of lies and self-dealing that left in its wake billions in losses and thousands of victimized customers,” the DOJ stated.

Mashinsky’s personal benefit was $48 million

In addition to listing massive investor losses resulting from the Celsius fraud, the DOJ mentioned that Mashinsky has personally profited from the fraudulent schemes in his role.

As part of his plea in December 2024, Mashinsky admitted that he was the leader of the criminal activity at Celsius, that his crimes resulted in losses in excess of $550 million, and that he personally benefited more than $48 million, the authority said.

US DOJ requests 20-year sentence for Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky
An excerpt from the government’s sentencing memorandum against Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky. Source: CourtListener

The DOJ emphasized that Mashinsky’s guilty plea showed that his crimes were “not the product of negligence, naivete, or bad luck,” but rather the result of “deliberate, calculated decisions to lie, deceive, and steal in pursuit of personal fortune.”

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

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