NHL playoff watch: Predictions for the Flyers’ finish this season

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11 months ago

March 14, 2024

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Tim Kavanagh, ESPN.comMar 14, 2024, 06:30 AM ET
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The Philadelphia Flyers have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2023-24 NHL season. In the preseason, the front office attempted to be realistic with the fans regarding the ongoing rebuild and how this might not be the season for a playoff return. But then the team kept piling on win after win, something that wasn’t a shock to the players on the ice.

Philly did a fair bit of dealing ahead of the March 8 trade deadline, but it remains in a playoff spot heading into Thursday night’s matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+/Hulu). What should fans expect from here on out? Let’s project a bit.

The Flyers are currently in the No. 3 spot in the Metro Division; they’re two points ahead of the first wild card, the Tampa Bay Lightning, but one regulation win behind (and the Lightning have a game in hand). They are four points and five regulation wins ahead of the New York Islanders, who currently sit in the second wild-card spot but are also aiming for the Flyers’ position in the Metro. New York has two games in hand on Philly.

Overall, the Flyers have a 77.1% chance of earning a playoff bid of some variety, per Stathletes. If they remain the No. 3 seed in the Metro, it’s becoming increasingly likely that this will result in a first-round matchup against the Carolina Hurricanes; the Canes are six points and two regulation wins behind the New York Rangers. The Flyers have lost both of their home games to the Canes this season, but they won the game in Raleigh, with one more game there remaining (March 21).

Should the Flyers slip back to a wild-card spot, a matchup against the Rangers would not be the preferred route: they’ve lost both contests to the Blueshirts (with two remaining, March 26 and April 11). On the other hand, if they draw the Florida Panthers, they might have a puncher’s chance: the Flyers have won both matchups thus far against them (with one game remaining, March 24).

Nevertheless, Stathletes does not necessarily foresee a long playoff run: the Flyers are projected with a 27.2% chance of making the second round, 10.7% chance of making the conference finals, 3.9% chance of reaching the Stanley Cup Final, and 1.4% chance of winning it all. Of course, this current Flyers club has ample experience silencing the doubters this season, so perhaps they have more surprises in store.

As we traverse the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2024 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC2 New York Islanders
A2 Boston Bruins vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC1 Tampa Bay Lightning
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 Philadelphia Flyers

Western Conference

C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Winnipeg Jets
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC2 Vegas Golden Knights
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings

Thursday’s games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres, 7 p.m.
Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens, 7 p.m.
Arizona Coyotes at Detroit Red Wings, 7 p.m.
New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7 p.m.
San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7 p.m.
Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes, 7 p.m.
Ottawa Senators at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars, 8 p.m.
Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild, 8 p.m.
Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames, 9 p.m.
Washington Capitals at Seattle Kraken, 10 p.m.

Wednesday’s scoreboard

St. Louis Blues 3, Los Angeles Kings 1
Nashville Predators 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Edmonton Oilers 7, Washington Capitals 2
Colorado Avalanche 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 117
Next game: @ CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 111
Next game: @ MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.7%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 89.3%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 91
Next game: vs. ARI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 19.2%
Tragic number: 34

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 5.4%
Tragic number: 27

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 76
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 22

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 73
Next game: @ CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 22

Metropolitan Division

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 114
Next game: @ TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 106
Next game: vs. FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 94
Next game: vs. TOR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 77.1%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 72.4%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 88
Next game: @ SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 28.0%
Tragic number: 33

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 5.3%
Tragic number: 28

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 3.6%
Tragic number: 29

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 68
Next game: vs. OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 16

Central Division

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 109
Next game: @ EDM (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 109
Next game: vs. NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 110
Next game: vs. ANA (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 98
Next game: @ SEA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 85.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 88
Next game: vs. MIN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 1.2%
Tragic number: 26

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 88
Next game: vs. ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 21.6%
Tragic number: 26

Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 71
Next game: @ NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 12

Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 49
Next game: vs. LA (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Pacific Division

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 113
Next game: vs. WSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 106
Next game: vs. COL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 97
Next game: @ CHI (Friday)
Playoff chances: 90.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 97
Next game: @ CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 88.5%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 87
Next game: vs. WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 11.2%
Tragic number: 27

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 85
Next game: vs. VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 1.0%
Tragic number: 24

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 62
Next game: @ MIN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 6

Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 50
Next game: @ PIT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

P — Clinched Presidents’ Trophy; Y — Clinched division; X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Macklin Celebrini, a freshman at Boston University.

Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12

Points: 41
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 19

Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23

* The Penguins’ first-round pick was traded to the Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. However, it is top-10 protected.

Sports

White Abarrio wins $3 million Pegasus World Cup

Published

8 hours ago

January 25, 2025

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Associated Press

Jan 25, 2025, 06:45 PM ET

HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. — White Abarrio won the $3 million Pegasus World Cup with a dominant performance at Gulfstream on Saturday.

He ran 1 1/8 miles in 1:48.05 under jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who earned his third career Pegasus victory.

Sent off as the 5-2 favorite, White Abarrio paid $7.60, $3.80 and $3.

Locked returned $3.20 and $2.40, while Skippylongstocking paid $4.40.

White Abarrio hit the apex of his career in 2023, when he won the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic as well as the Whitney at Saratoga for trainer Rick Dutrow. The horse won the Florida Derby at Gulfstream in 2022.

The horse had been transferred when his Florida-based trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. was barred from racing at Churchill Downs and in New York after two of his horses died suddenly 48 hours apart in races at Churchill in the weeks leading up to the 2023 Kentucky Derby.

White Abarrio’s owners wanted to run him in the Met Mile at Belmont, so they chose the New York-based Dutrow to oversee him. The horse went back to Joseph’s barn in June 2024.

“Today he was spectacular,” a teary-eyed Joseph said. “I’m just thankful.”

In the $1 million Pegasus Turf, Spirit of St Louis edged Integration by a neck.

The 6-year-old gelding ran 1 1/8 miles on turf in 1:44.50, just off the track record of 1:44.45 set by last year’s winner Warm Heart. He paid $17.80 to win at 7-1 odds.

Spirit of St Louis was ridden by Tyler Gaffalione and trained by Chad Brown, who won the Eclipse Award as the nation’s outstanding trainer earlier in the week.

Chasing the Crown was third.

Sports

Sanders unsure if he will throw at NFL combine

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10 hours ago

January 25, 2025

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Sanders unsure if he will throw at NFL combine

Daniel OyefusiJan 25, 2025, 04:17 PM ET
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FRISCO, Texas — Former Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders said Saturday he is unsure if he will throw at the NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis next month.

Sanders is attending the East-West Shrine Bowl but will not participate in practice or in the game Thursday. He was at the West team’s first practice at the University of North Texas on Saturday morning but stood on the field, watching the other prospects.

While Sanders won’t conduct any on-field work at the Shrine Bowl, he reiterated his belief that he’s worthy of being the top pick in the 2025 NFL draft. He has been training in the Dallas area with former Miami‘s Cam Ward, another top quarterback prospect in this year’s draft.

“We changed the program at Jackson [State University],” Sanders said. “We went to Colorado, changed the program. And we did everything people didn’t think we were able to do. So, that’s why I know I’m the most guaranteed risk you can take.”

Sanders met with multiple teams Friday, including the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns and New York Giants, who hold the first three picks in the draft, respectively. The Titans met with Sanders for 45 minutes.

“I like that I’m able to get in the forefront of everything and they’re able to understand me and ask me whatever questions they want,” Sanders said. “I’m not ducking. I ain’t hiding. I’m right here, live in the flesh and able to answer whatever questions are out there.”

While Sanders is confident in his worthiness as the first overall pick, he said he would be “thankful for whatever situation and whoever drafts me. I know I’ll be able to change their program.”

Asked what he will bring to a team, Sanders smiled and said, “A lot of wins.”

Shedeur’s older brother Shilo, a safety, is also in Texas for the game. Colorado is also represented by wide receivers Will Sheppard, LaJohntay Wester, Jimmy Horn Jr. and cornerback Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig.

ESPN’s Turron Davenport contributed to this report.

Sports

Astros GM: Door to re-up Bregman ‘cracked’ open

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13 hours ago

January 25, 2025

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Astros GM: Door to re-up Bregman 'cracked' open

Associated Press

Jan 25, 2025, 01:29 PM ET

HOUSTON — The door to re-signing free agent Alex Bregman is “cracked” open for the Astros, but keeping the third baseman with the team might still be a long shot, general manager Dana Brown said Saturday.

Speaking at the team’s fan fest, Brown talked at length about the possibility of re-signing Bregman, who has spent his entire nine-year career with the Astros.

“The interesting thing is, when we made some trades and some moves this offseason, we never realized that Bregman would still be on the market at this time,” Brown said. “We’ve had some conversation and I could kind of leave it there, but we’ve had some conversations.”

He added those conversations were positive before he was asked whether that means that the door for re-signing Bregman is still open.

“I would say it’s cracked, right,” Brown said. “The fact that he’s still available, it just makes it interesting like, man, this guy is such a good player, he’s done so many wonderful things here. And so, we’ll stick with the cracked door and see what our conversations lead to.”

If Houston brings Bregman back, it would create a crowded situation in the infield. They traded outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs for infielder Isaac Paredes before signing free agent first baseman Christian Walker this offseason.

“Our group is pretty set,” Brown said. “We made some moves and some trades and solidified our top five in our lineup, and so it’s a long shot, but the fact that [Bregman’s] a free agent, we’ll have discussions about him like we have discussions about every other free agent.”

The day that Walker was introduced in Houston, Brown said Walker would be the team’s first baseman and that Paredes would play third. But Brown said Saturday that Bregman would play third base if he were to re-sign.

“I love watching Bregman play third base, so I can’t imagine putting Bregman or having [manager Joe Espada] put Bregman in any other position other than third base,” Brown said. “That’s his home. He puts on clinics when he’s playing third base, and he’s just as special as anybody, Gold Glove there, and so I can’t picture him playing anywhere else.”

Bregman is a two-time All-Star who won a Gold Glove last season and a Silver Slugger Award in 2019 when he came in second in American League MVP voting.

Espada said he has kept in touch with Bregman, 30, throughout the offseason and that while he tries to give him space, he wants to make sure he understands that he wishes he would stay in Houston forever.

“I tell him all the time … this is home,” Espada said. “I understand the process. You sit down with your family, you’re trying to do what’s best for you, your family and your kids. But this is home, and this is his family.”

While Bregman would remain at third base in Houston, it’s unclear whether his return would force Jose Altuve to move from second, a position he has played his entire 14-year career.

Altuve was vocal at the end of last season about his desire for Bregman to remain with the team, but Espada wouldn’t say whether he has spoken to him about the possibility of changing positions to facilitate that.

“If we get there, we’ll have that conversation with him, but his willingness to do whatever it takes to win — it’s important to us,” Espada said. “He’s a cornerstone of this team. He’s the heart of this organization. He understands that … but if we get to that point, I’m sure that we’ll have that conversation and we’ll talk about how that’s going to look moving forward.”

Altuve said those conversations haven’t happened but that he would be open to whatever the team needs.

“Alex, he’s one of the best players in the whole league, but he’s definitely one of the best players on the team, so we want him to stay,” Altuve said. “So whatever I have to do for him to stay, I’m willing to do it.”

Some believe that Altuve would need to move to the outfield if Bregman returns. He was asked about how difficult it would be to make the transition after never playing outfield at any level of his career.

“For Alex, nothing will be difficult,” he said with a smile.

Altuve said he has gone through a range of emotions in the past few months as he has tried to figure out where Bregman would sign.

“I thought he’s going to be back for sure,” Altuve said. “Then I thought he’s not coming back for sure. Now I’m like, OK, in the middle.”