Tesla (TSLA) delivery estimates are plunging as growth story dissipates
Analysts are releasing a wave of delivery estimate downgrades for Tesla as the automaker’s growth story is dissipating – at least for the next few years.
Tesla’s stock has been performing poorly this year. It is one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P500.
There are several different arguable reasons for that, but the main one appears to be Tesla’s dissipating growth story and the lack of a clear path back to it in the near term.
While Elon Musk likes to say that Tesla is a conglomeration of several different companies operating in a multitude of industries, its performance is almost entirely tied to vehicle sales for now.
Tesla has been growing at a roughly 50% rate per year on that front until last year, when it started to slow down.
It has been an incredible performance, but now the automaker has warned that its growth will slow this year as it is “between two waves of growth” with nothing in its lineup that can significantly contribute to its vehicle sales.
Wall Street analysts are trying to adjust to this new situation for Tesla, but they are having issues coming up with new numbers for this year and Tesla hasn’t said much.
Companies normally give clear guidance, but Tesla is an exception. For 2024, Tesla only noted that its growth rate “may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.”
It leaves a lot of room for speculation – and Wall Street loves to speculate.
Tesla had record deliveries of 484,507 vehicles last quarter for a 20% year-over-year growth rate, and it delivered 422,875 in Q1 2023.
Now, analysts are trying to estimate how many vehicles Tesla will deliver in Q1 2024 with a few weeks left in the quarter and it hasn’t been looking good.
As of a few days ago, the consensus was 479,400 vehicles, which is slightly down quarter-to-quarter, but up significantly year-over-year, which would be expected as Tesla added production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Berlin in 2023 – though it did had issues in Berlin this month with the factory being shut down for a week.
However, several analysts have released lower expectations in the last few days – leading to a gloomier look at the first quarter of the year for the automaker.
Deutsche Bank now estimates 427,000 deliveries in Q1, which would be a massive disappointment for Tesla.
UBS also lowered its estimate from 466,000 to 432,000 units in Q1.
Several other firms are making similar moves over the last few days – often accompanied by downgrades on Tesla’s stock. Most serious estimates now put Tesla’s deliveries between 425,000 and 435,000 units in Q1.
Tesla is expected to release its production and delivery numbers in the first few days of April.
Electrek’s Take
This is a real problem for Tesla. As I previously wrote, I think the Cybertruck was a mistake – not because it’s not a good vehicle, but because the resources spent developing it would have been better spent on a higher volume vehicle for Tesla to shorten the time between the two growth phases.
Now, Tesla is not expected to go back to a significant level of growth until 2027 based on its own estimates:
That’s a long time for what has been described as a “growth stock”.
Now, I honestly don’t know if these new lower estimates make sense for Q1. Tesla has seen lower production at Gigiafactory Shanghai due to the Chinese New Year and the shutdown at Gigafactory Berlin due to the arson attack.
On the demand side, Tesla is offering some significant discounts to sell everything it has, as usual.
Is that enough for a drop of 50,000 to 60,000 units quarter-to-quarter? I don’t know, maybe? What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.
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In his latest crackdown on e-bike riders, New York City Mayor Eric Adams is pushing for a new citywide e-bike speed limit of 15 mph (25 km/h), despite the fact that no one seems to know how it would actually be enforced.
The proposal, introduced last month as part of a broader package aimed at improving safety on city streets, would make it illegal to ride an e-bike over 15 mph. But experts, advocates, and even city officials are scratching their heads about how the rule would work in practice.
Most consumer e-bikes are already sold with speed limits in place: 20 mph (32 km/h) for throttle assist and 28 mph (45 km/) for pedal assist, per classifications used in the majority of states in the US. Yet those limits are controlled by the bike’s electronics, not by any city infrastructure.
According to reporting by Hell Gate NYC, even the Mayor’s own office couldn’t explain what the enforcement mechanism would look like, and no single agency has so far been put in charge of enforcing the speed limit. Will the city mandate software modifications such as those that limit Class 3 e-bikes to 25 mph (40 km/h) in NYC? Would they rely on radar guns like traditional speeding enforcement for cars? Install speed cameras that can identify bikes? So far, there are no answers.
Citi Bike has already reduced its electric bicycle fleet’s speed limits to 15 mph, but that only impacts shared e-bikes used in the city. Complicating matters further is the fact that most delivery riders – who are clearly the unspoken target of this policy – don’t use mainstream e-bikes from the major manufacturers, or even those that can accept firmware updates to adjust speed and power. Many of them ride inexpensive, sometimes heavily modified throttle bikes purchased online or from bike shops like FLY that cater to these types of riders. Such e-bikes often lack more sophisticated software speed-limiting features, and few, if any, have any form of digital connectivity that could allow for remote speed capping.
City transportation experts note that enforcement of speed limits on e-bikes is nearly impossible without clocking and stopping each rider. Unlike cars, bikes don’t have license plates. And even if a bike is capable of going faster than 15 mph, it doesn’t mean the rider is actually breaking the law – unless caught in the act. Nearly every car in NYC can likely push close to or past 100 mph (160 km/h), despite the city wide’s vehicular speed limit of just 25 mph. Advocates have also questioned the wisdom of focusing on e-bike speed while car crashes continue to injure and kill far more people.
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Environment
Range Rover’s electric SUV won’t launch this year after a surprise delay, but there’s more
Range Rover’s first EV was initially scheduled to arrive later this year, but that won’t be the case. JLR has delayed the launch of the Range Rover Electric after telling customers they will have to wait a little longer. However, that may not be the only EV JLR is delaying.
Range Rover Electric and Jaguar EVs are being delayed
Although the electric SUV was originally due to hit showrooms in late 2025, it’s now being pushed back until next year.
The British automaker claimed it needed more time for testing while it waited for stronger demand. However, there’s more to the story. According to The Guardian, Jaguar Land Rover wrote to clients waiting for the Range Rover Electric, telling them deliveries will not start until 2026.
Sources close to the matter said the delay could also impact two Jaguar EV models, including the radical blue-and-pink Type 00 Concept. Jaguar’s electric vehicles are expected to be delayed by several months.
The news comes after JLR announced plans to cut up to 500 management positions in the UK this week. Britain’s largest carmaker was hit hard by the Trump Administration’s new auto tariffs.
JLR’s sales plunged over 15% in the previous quarter after the company was forced to temporarily halt shipments to the US.
A company spokesperson confirmed that “By 2030 JLR will sell electric versions of all its luxury brands,” adding “we will launch our new models at the right time for our clients, our business and individual markets.”
Range Rover’s first electric SUV has secured over 61,000 customers on the waiting list. JLR claims it’s currently undergoing “the most intensive testing any Range Rover vehicle has ever endured.”
An electric version of the Velar is due for a radical new look. It’s scheduled for production in April 2026, but that could also be delayed. An electric Defender is due out in early 2027.
Meanwhile, production on Jaguar’s new EV, its first since the I-PACE, is set to begin in August 2026. Jaguar’s electric GT is expected to cost over £100,000 ($135,000) as part of its brand revamp. Its second EV may not launch until December 2027 now.
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This week on Electrek’s Wheel-E podcast, we discuss the most popular news stories from the world of electric bikes and other nontraditional electric vehicles. This time, that includes new e-bikes from Aventon and Lectric, a surge in Amish riding e-bikes, a wireless charging kickstand, cheaper electric motorcycles coming from Honda and LiveWire and more.
The Wheel-E podcast returns every two weeks on Electrek’s YouTube channel, Facebook, Linkedin, and Twitter.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
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Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the Wheel-E podcast today:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 9:00 a.m. ET (or the video after 10:00 a.m. ET):
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