Vladimir Putin will predictably win the Russian election, but it still matters – here’s why
Russia embarks this Friday on three days of voting to reconfirm the inevitable, which is another six-year presidential term for Vladimir Putin.
Given the fact this is simply a matter of going through the motions for Putin and for the public, why does it matter and why does his administration go to such lengths to try to secure a resounding so-called victory?
First, the war-time context.
If turnout and support flag in line with a generalised anxiety regarding how this war ever reaches a conclusion – particularly a war which is pitched as a never-ending conflict with the West – then it will look as though Putin has made a terrible mistake. This he cannot allow.
“It’s like Churchill saying that dictators ride on tigers they dare not dismount,” says David Kankia of the Russian electoral monitoring movement, Golos.
“We have a war crisis, a political crisis inside and outside the country. And if he gets less than he did six years ago, that will mean he doesn’t have the support of his people and that will crush his system.”
It is also a way of proving to those who might feel at the very least some disquiet about the course their country is taking, that they are in the minority.
And a warning, if ever they needed one after the death of Putin’s only real political rival Alexei Navalny, that those who might consider acting on those political reservations do so at huge personal risk.
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The Kremlin reportedly has a target for Putin in this election. Pic: Reuters
“It is a way of demonstrating that they are outcasts,” says Andrei Kolesnikov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre.
“You must be mainstream, otherwise we will treat you as traitors, as foreign agents, as pariahs in this society. It is better to be mute, to follow the rules.”
This was a message also driven home by the fact that Boris Nadezhdin, the only independent candidate campaigning on an anti-war ticket, was not even allowed to run.
The three alternative candidates on the ballot from Kremlin-supplicant parliamentary parties have all declared themselves supportive both of the president and of his war.
They may secure some votes from those who cannot bring themselves to vote for Putin, but that vote will end up counting for little given the various ways and means by which both over-zealous electoral officials administering the polling stations and electronic voting can be massaged to fit the Kremlin’s requirements.
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How has Putin been in power so long?
For the majority in Russia, it is easier to stay passive, to go along with the Kremlin’s voracious messaging, to tick the boxes on all things including at the ballot box and to hope that Putin’s shiny new economic promises filter down their way.
Money in this militarised economy is flooding into regions which haven’t traditionally seen much of it by way of army salaries and payouts to soldiers’ families.
The military-industrial complex is working apace, bringing employment and salaries in its wake. Russia’s economy is robust and Putin mentions it at every chance he has.
Kolesnikov calls it Putin’s Barbieland, an imaginary, happy Russia flush with cash that is buying people’s silence.
“It is not just money as a factor of silencing,” he says.
“Fear is also significant. Not in every case, for sure. Some people can’t say that they are scared of persecution. But the atmosphere in the country is not pleasant.”
Adverts for the Russian election
Remember that when you see the government’s turnout numbers, when you see polling for Putin at 80% which is reportedly the Kremlin’s target.
This is a country purporting to be normal, holding normal elections, crushing, imprisoning, even killing its opposition, waging war on its next-door neighbour in the name of “self-defence”.
But people know and feel that there is something wrong. The war is a disquieting factor. The atmosphere is not normal and it is not pleasant.
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“We will no longer tolerate criticism of our democracy. Our democracy is the best,” Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, told a youth forum last week, as though democracy is anything the Kremlin wants it to be.
But it is not. Democracies allow for a free and fair vote, they do not encourage state workers to vote a certain way, knowing that their jobs hang in the balance if they do not.
Democracies do not change the constitution to allow the incumbent to stay in power into his third decade. Democracies allow for vibrant competition and here there is none.
Black is not white, whatever the Kremlin says.
The COP29 climate talks have reached a last ditch deal on cash for developing countries, pulling the summit back from the brink of collapse after a group of countries stormed out of a negotiating room earlier.
The slew of deals finally signed off in the small hours of Sunday morning in Azerbaijan includes one that proved hardest of all – one about money.
Eventually the more than 190 countries in Baku agreed a target for richer polluting countries such as the UK, EU and Japan to drum up $300bn a year by 2035 to help poorer nations both curb and adapt to climate change.
It is a far cry from the $1.3trn experts say is needed, and from the $500bn that vulnerable countries like Uganda had said they would be willing to accept.
But in the end they were forced to, knowing they could not afford to live without it, nor wait until next year to try again, when a Donald Trump presidency would make things even harder.
Bolivia’s lead negotiator Diego Pacheco called it an “insult”, while the Marshall Islands’ Tina Stege said it was “not nearly enough, but it’s a start”.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell said: “This new finance goal is an insurance policy for humanity, amid worsening climate impacts hitting every country.
“No country got everything they wanted, and we leave Baku with a mountain of work still to do. So this is no time for victory laps.”
The funding deal was clinched more than 24 hours into overtime, and against what felt like all the odds.
The talks were rocked from the start by the incoming presidency of climate denier Mr Trump, the moment Argentina’s team were recalled back to Buenos Aires by their right-wing president and a controversial letter that sent shockwaves through the United Nations.
Pic: AP
The fraught two weeks of negotiations pitted the anger of developing countries who are footing the bill for more dangerous weather that they did little to cause, against the tight public finances of rich countries.
A relieved Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, climate envoy for Panama, said there is “light at the end of the tunnel”.
Just hours ago, the talks almost fell apart as furious vulnerable nations stormed out of negotiations in frustration over that elusive funding goal.
They were also angry with oil and gas producing countries, who stood accused of trying to dilute aspects of the deal on cutting fossil fuels.
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Climate-vulnerable nations storm out of talks
The UN talks work on consensus, meaning everyone has to agree for a deal to fly.
A row over how to follow up on last year’s pledge to “transition away from fossil fuels” was left unresolved and punted into next year, following objections from Chile and Switzerland for being too weak.
A draft deal simply “reaffirmed” the commitment but did not dial up the pressure in the way the UK, EU, island states and many others here wanted.
Saudi Arabia fought the hardest against any step forward on cutting fossil fuels, the primary cause of climate change that is intensifying floods, drought and fires around the world.
Governments did manage to strike a deal on carbon markets at COP29, which has been 10 years in the making and will allow countries to trade emissions cuts.
‘Not everything we wanted’
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The UK’s energy secretary, Ed Miliband, said the deal is “not everything we or others wanted”, but described it as a “step forward”.
“It’s a deal that will drive forward the clean energy transition, which is essential for jobs and growth in Britain and for protecting us all against the worsening climate crisis,” he added.
“Today’s agreement sends the signal that the clean energy transition is unstoppable.
“It is the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century and through our championing of it we can help crowd in private investment.”
Protesters at the summit in Baku. Pic: AP
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The Azerbaijan team leading COP29 said: “Every hour of the day, we have pulled people together. Every inch of the way, we have pushed for the highest common denominator.
“We have faced geopolitical headwinds and made every effort to be an honest broker for all sides.”
At least 20 people have been killed and 66 injured in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities have said.
Lebanon‘s health ministry said the death toll could rise as emergency workers dig through the rubble looking for survivors. DNA tests are being used to identify the victims, the ministry added.
The attack destroyed an eight-storey residential building and badly damaged several others around it in the Basta neighbourhood at 4am (2am UK time) on Saturday.
The central Basta neighbourhood in Beirut
The Israeli military did not warn residents to evacuate before the attack and has not commented on the casualties.
At least four bombs were dropped in the attack – the fourth targeting the city centre this week.
A separate drone strike in the southern port city of Tyre this morning killed two people and injured three, according to the state-run National News Agency.
The victims were Palestinian refugees from the nearby al Rashidieh camp who were out fishing, according to Mohammed Bikai, spokesperson for the Fatah Palestinian faction in the Tyre area.
Israel’s military warned residents today in parts of Beirut’s southern suburbs that they were near Hezbollah facilities, which the army would target in the near future. The warning, posted on X, told people to evacuate at least 500 metres away.
The army said that over the past day it had conducted intelligence-based strikes on Hezbollah targets in Dahiyeh, in Beirut’s southern suburbs, where Hezbollah has a strong presence. It said it hit several command centres and weapons storage facilities.
Pic: AP
Israel has killed several Hezbollah leaders in air strikes on the capital’s southern suburbs.
Heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is ongoing in southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces push deeper into the country since launching a major offensive in September.
According to the Lebanese health ministry, at least 3,670 people have been killed in Israeli attacks there, with more than 15,400 wounded.
It has displaced about 1.2 million people – a quarter of Lebanon’s population – while Israel says about 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed in northern Israel.
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‘Dozens’ of Palestinians killed in Israeli airstrike
Meanwhile, six people, including three children and two women, were killed in the southern Gazan city of Khan Younis.
Some 44,176 Palestinians have been killed since the start of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, according to the Gaza health ministry.
The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but it has said that more than half of the fatalities are women and children.
The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking another 250 hostage.
US envoy Amos Hochstein was in the region this week to try to end more than 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, ignited last October by the war in Gaza.
Mr Hochstein indicated progress had been made after meetings in Beirut on Tuesday and Wednesday, before going to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and defence minister Israel Katz.
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