Car industry insists 2,000% increase in sales to Azerbaijan has nothing to do with Russia
Britain’s car industry has insisted that an unprecedented 2,000% increase in vehicle exports to Azerbaijan has nothing to with Russia and is explained by the fact that the former Soviet state is a “flourishing market in its own right”.
Sky analysis has found that the British car sector sent another £40m worth of cars to Azerbaijan in the first month of this year, raising fresh questions about whether those cars were being sent there to circumvent sanctions on Russia.
New data from HM Revenue & Customs shows that while direct car exports to Russia remain at zero, where they have been since the imposition of sanctions in 2022, in January £43m worth of cars were sent to Azerbaijan, the former Soviet state neighbouring Russia.
That meant Azerbaijan, which hitherto had rarely made the top 75 export destinations for British cars, is now the 12th biggest foreign market, by value, for British-made cars: above Switzerland, Canada and Spain.
UK carmakers have pledged not to send cars to Russia, with sanctions formally banning the export of “dual use” items which could be repurposed as weapons in the Ukraine war. There are separate sanctions specifically banning the trade of cars worth over £42,000.
However, Sky News analysis found last week that over precisely the same period as British car exports to Azerbaijan rose sharply, there was a near-simultaneous rise in car exports from Azerbaijan to Russia.
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British-made luxury cars still being bought by rich Russians
The average value of cars sent from the UK to Azerbaijan in January was just over £115,000.
Trade data shows that similar increases in British exports have been seen in other former Soviet Russian neighbours, including Kazakhstan, Armenia and Georgia.
A spokesman from Britain’s motoring lobby group, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), said it had detected no evidence the vehicles being sent to Azerbaijan were destined for Russia – and that they were evidence that it was a “flourishing market in its own right”.
“UK vehicle exports to Azerbaijan – as to many countries globally – have increased due to a number of factors, not least a flourishing economy, new model launches and pent-up demand,” it said.
Azerbaijan’s flatlining economy
However, the notion that the exports were evidence of a flourishing economy stands in stark contrast to the economic data, which show that Azerbaijan’s GDP per capita has been flat for a decade and a half at around $15,000 in purchasing power parity terms.
Since two years preceding the pandemic, the value of car exports to Azerbaijan has risen by more than 2,000%. No other sizeable car market in the world has come close, save for Kazakhstan, the other Russian neighbour, whose imports of British-made cars are up 800%.
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Carmakers told to act after Sky report
The SMMT said: “Wherever the UK automotive industry exports, it is committed to compliance with all trade and economic sanctions, and continues to work closely with government and the new Office For Sanctions to ensure the effective implementation of the regulations.
“There is no evidence available of that commitment being compromised, and it is right to monitor for any potential vulnerabilities in a fast-moving and evolving environment.
“The automotive industry remains in dialogue with government and other international partners enforcing co-ordinated trade restrictions, to ensure adherence to both the letter and the spirit of the sanctions, across all vulnerable sectors.”
While the sheer number of cars going to Azerbaijan is small, the value of those cars is consistently high, averaging well over £100,000 and suggesting they are mostly luxury cars.
There have been similar flows detected from other European nations, including Germany and Poland, to other former Soviet states neighbouring Russia.
Following the original Sky News story last week, Foreign Office Minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan said car companies should examine their orders to ensure they are complying with sanctions rules.
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The average two-year mortgage rate has fallen below 5% for the first time since the Liz Truss mini-budget.
The interest rate charged on a typical two-year fixed mortgage deal is now 4.99%, according to financial information company Moneyfacts.
It means there are more expensive and also cheaper two-year mortgage products on the market, but the average has fallen to a near three-year low.
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Not since September 2022 has the average been at this level, before former prime minister Liz Truss announced her so-called mini-budget.
The programme of unfunded spending and tax cuts, done without the commentary of independent watchdog the Office for Budget Responsibility, led to a steep rise in the cost of government borrowing and necessitated an intervention by monetary regulator the Bank of England to prevent a collapse of pension funds.
It was also a key reason mortgage costs rose as high as they did – up to 6% for a typical two-year deal in the weeks after the mini-budget.
Why?
The mortgage borrowing rate dropped on Wednesday as the base interest rate – set by the Bank of England – was cut last week to 4%. The reduction made borrowing less expensive, as signs of a struggling economy were evident to the rate-setting central bankers and despite inflation forecast to rise further.
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Bank of England cuts interest rate
It’s that expectation of elevated price rises that has stopped mortgage rates from falling further. The Bank had raised interest rates and has kept them comparatively high as inflation is anticipated to rise faster due to poor harvests and increased employer costs, making goods more expensive.
The group behind the figures, Moneyfacts, said “While the cost of borrowing is still well above the rock-bottom rates of the years immediately preceding that fiscal event, this milestone shows lenders are competing more aggressively for business.”
In turn, mortgage providers are reluctant to offer cheaper products.
A further cut to the base interest rate is expected before the end of 2025, according to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data. Traders currently bet the rate will be brought to 3.75% in December.
This expectation can influence what rates lenders offer.
For around 700,000 teenagers on the treadmill that is the English education system, the A and T-level results that drop this week may be the most important step of all.
They matter because they open the door to higher education, and a crucial life decision based on an unwritten contract that has stood since the 1960s: the better the marks, the greater the choice of institution and course available to applicants, and in due course, the value of the degree at the end of it.
A quarter of a century after Tony Blair set a target of 50% of school-leavers going to university, however, the fundamentals of that deal have been transformed.
Today’s prospective undergraduates face rising costs of tuition and debt, new labour market dynamics, and the uncertainties of the looming AI revolution.
Together, they pose a different question: Is going to university still worth it?
Students at Plantsbrook School in Sutton Coldfield, Birmingham, look at their A-level results in 2024. File pic: PA
Huge financial costs
Of course, the value of the university experience and the degree that comes with it cannot be measured by finances alone, but the costs are unignorable.
For today’s students, the universal free tuition and student grants enjoyed by their parents’ generation have been replaced by annual fees that increase to £9,500 this year.
Living costs meanwhile will run to at least £61,000 over three years, according to new research.
Together, they will leave graduates saddled with average debts of £53,000, which, under new arrangements, they repay via a “graduate tax” of 9% on their earnings above £25,000 for up to 40 years.
A squeezed salary gap
As well as rising fees and costs of finance, graduates will enter a labour market in which the financial benefits of a degree are less immediately obvious.
Graduates do still enjoy a premium on starting salaries, but it may be shrinking thanks to advances in the minimum wage.
The Institute of Student Employers says the average graduate starting salary was £32,000 last year, though there is a wide variation depending on career.
File pic: PA
With the minimum wage rising 6% to more than £26,000 this April, however, the gap to non-degree earners may have reduced.
A reduction in earning power may be compounded by the phenomenon of wage compression, which sees employers having less room to increase salaries across the pay scale because the lowest, compulsory minimum level has risen fast.
Taken over a career, however, the graduate premium remains unarguable.
Government data shows a median salary for all graduates aged 16-64 in 2024 of £42,000 and £47,000 for post-graduates, compared to £30,500 for non-graduates.
Graduates are also more likely to be in employment and in highly skilled jobs.
There is also little sign of buyer’s remorse.
A University of Bristol survey of more than 2,000 graduates this year found that, given a second chance, almost half would do the same course at the same institution.
And while a quarter would change course or university, only 3% said they would have skipped higher education.
Students receive their A-level results at Ark Globe Academy in London last year. File pic: PA
No surprise then that industry body Universities UK believes the answer to the question is an unequivocal “yes”, even if the future of graduate employment remains unclear.
“This is a decision every individual needs to take for themselves; it is not necessarily the right decision for everybody. More than half the 18-year-old population doesn’t progress to university,” says chief executive Vivienne Stern.
“But if you look at it from a purely statistical point of view, there is absolutely no question that the majority who go to university benefit not only in terms of earnings.”
‘Roll with the punches’
She is confident that graduates will continue to enjoy the benefits of an extended education even if the future of work is profoundly uncertain.
“I think now more than ever you need to have the resilience that you acquire from studying at degree level to roll with the punches.
“If the labour market changes under you, you might need to reinvent yourself several times during your career in order to be able to ride out changes that are difficult to predict. That resilience will hold its value.”
The greatest change is likely to come from AI, the emerging technology whose potential to eat entry-level white collar jobs may be fulfilled even faster than predicted.
The recruitment industry is already reporting a decline in graduate-level posts.
A maths exam in progress at Pittville High School, Cheltenham.
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Anecdotally, companies are already banking cuts to legal, professional, and marketing spend because an AI can produce the basic output almost instantly, and for free.
That might suggest a premium returning to non-graduate jobs that remain beyond the bots. An AI might be able to pull together client research or write an ad, but as yet, it can’t change a washer or a catheter.
It does not, however, mean the degree is dead, or that university is worthless, though the sector will remain under scrutiny for the quality and type of courses that are offered.
The government is in the process of developing a new skills agenda with higher education at its heart, but second-guessing what the economy will require in a year, never mind 10, has seldom been harder.
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Universities will be crucial to producing the skilled workers the UK needs to thrive, from life sciences to technology, but reducing students to economic units optimised by “high value” courses ignores the unquantifiable social, personal, and professional benefits going to university can bring.
In a time when culture wars are played out on campus, it is also fashionable to dismiss attendance at all but the elite institutions on proven professional courses as a waste of time and money. (A personal recent favourite came from a columnist with an Oxford degree in PPE and a career as an economics lecturer.)
The reality of university today means that no student can afford to ignore a cost-benefit analysis of their decision, but there is far more to the experience than the job you end up with. Even AI agrees.
Ask ChatGPT if university is still worth it, and it will tell you: “That depends on what you mean by worth – financially, personally, professionally – because each angle tells a different story.”
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