The New York Stock Exchange welcomes Snowflake to usher in the first day of winter on Dec. 21, 2021. To honor the occasion, Snowflake the Bear, joined by Chris Taylor, vice president of NYSE Listings and Services, rings the opening bell.
NYSE
In 2020, as data analytics software vendor Snowflake was hitting the public market, one of the key stats it was touting to investors was net revenue retention.
Snowflake’s NRR at the time was 158%, meaning its existing customer base from a year earlier had increased its total spend by 58%. The measurement reflects demand from clients for more products and services and is beloved by Wall Street because it signifies added revenue without much additional cost.
However, in the quarter that ended in January of this year, Snowflake’s NRR dipped to 131%, a number that is still high by industry standards yet indicates a slowdown in new spending. It is a trend that is popping up across the cloud software industry, as former fast-growing businesses contend with a more conservative approach from the companies, governments and other entities they serve, whether the buyers are finance, marketing or IT departments.
“The median net retention for the software universe has been steadily declining the last few quarters,” Jamin Ball, a partner at tech-focused investment firm Altimeter Capital, wrote in a post on social media site X on Friday. “More pressure on churn (as companies look to reduce point solutions in favor of platforms) and more difficult upsells have pushed net retention down,” Ball added.
Industrywide, the median net retention rate declined to 111% in the fourth quarter, as the number ticks down a bit each period, Ball’s data shows. According to the four-year chart he posted, NRR peaked at 121% in the first quarter of 2022, which was just after tech stocks reached a record and had started a precipitous decline.
The retrenchment has continued even with interest rates stabilizing, the economy showing signs of strength and the Nasdaq wiping out all of its losses from 2022 to reach fresh highs.
Twilio, which sells cloud-based communications software, reported NRR of 102% in February, with just 5% year-over-year revenue growth. Rewind to the fourth quarter of 2020 and the company’s NRR was 139%.
Almost all of Twilio’s revenue comes from its division that contains technology for sending text messages and emails.
“We are seeing low churn in that business, but relative to historical levels kind of pre-2023, just higher contraction and more muted expansion,” Aidan Viggiano, Twilio’s finance chief, said on the company’s earnings call in February.
At Snowflake, Chief Financial Officer Mike Scarpelli told investors last month that NRR will at some point converge with its revenue growth rate, which slowed to 36% in the latest fiscal year from 69% in fiscal 2023 and 106% the year before that.
The topic didn’t get much discussion on Snowflake’s earnings call, as analysts were focused on the announcement that Sridhar Ramaswamy was replacing CEO Frank Slootman, the veteran Silicon Valley executive who led Snowflake through its 2020 initial public offering, the largest ever for a U.S. software company.
Representatives from Twilio and Snowflake declined to comment.
The story is similar at Zoom, which has seen its enterprise net retention rate slip to 101% from more than 130% three years ago.
Zoom has opted to add artificial intelligence features into its premium video-calling plans at no additional cost. That is different than the approach taken by competitors Google and Microsoft, which are generally forcing companies to pay for new AI capabilities.
“Because customers are also trying to reduce the cost, that’s why we do not charge the customers for those features,” Zoom CEO Eric Yuan said on his company’s earnings call last month.
Zoom did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Even Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said “cost optimization” is having an effect on business. Amazon Web Services doesn’t break out NRR, but the division reported annual revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 13%, down from 20% a year earlier. Jassy said he sees the market starting to show signs of a reacceleration.
“I think that the lion’s share of cost optimization has happened,” Jassy said. “It’s not that there won’t be any more or that we don’t see any more. But it’s just attenuated very significantly.”
An AWS spokesperson told CNBC in a statement that “customers are renewing at larger commitments over longer periods.”
‘Additional down-sell pressure’
ZoomInfo, which sells access to data that companies can use to help drive sales, reported a dramatic drop in NRR to 87% at the end of 2023 from 116% two years earlier. That means existing customers are spending less year over year.
Midsize companies, especially in technology, were the customers feeling the most heat in the fourth quarter, ZoomInfo CFO Cameron Hyzer told analysts on last month’s earnings call. ZoomInfo ended the fourth quarter with 1,820 customers holding at least $100,000 in annual contract value on Dec. 31, down from 1,869 clients at that level on Sept. 30.
“We anticipate additional down-sell pressure in Q1 as we are still lapping a peak of negativity from last year and working through the long tail of multiannual contracts that were most recently transacted in a very different operating environment,” Hyzer said. Management expects the retention rate to return to higher levels this year, he said.
DigitalOcean, which competes with AWS, Microsoft and Google in providing cloud computing and storage services, also saw NRR dip below 100% last year. After hitting 112% in the fourth quarter of 2022, the rate dropped to 107% to start 2023 and then fell to 96% in the third and fourth quarters.
Paddy Srinivasan, who was named CEO of DigitalOcean in January, told CNBC in an interview in February that developers are turning off computing instances that they are not currently using.
Like at AWS, Srinivasan said DigitalOcean is “starting to see stabilization.”
Representatives from ZoomInfo and DigitalOcean did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.
A Wall Street sign is viewed in front of the New York Stock Exchange.
Eduardo Munoz | AFP | Getty Images
This is CNBC’s Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox.
Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:
1. Secret Santa
The three major indexes are coming off back-to-back winning weeks, with the S&P 500 on Friday rising closer to records it set earlier this year. Stocks’ advances came as investors geared up for the last Federal Reserve policy meeting of the year, which is set to kick off tomorrow.
Here’s what to know:
The delayed release of September’s personal consumption expenditures price index showed core PCE — a key inflation measure — was lighter than economists anticipated on a 12-month basis.
The report gave stocks a boost on Friday, as traders bet the data would encourage Fed officials to cut interest rates this week.
The Fed is set to announce its decision on Wednesday. Traders are pricing in about a 90% likelihood that the central bank cuts interest rates again, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that he expects the U.S. economy to finish the year with 3% real GDP growth, even after the hit from the federal government shutdown.
Following its four-day win streak last week, the S&P 500 is now roughly 0.7% away from its intraday record and about a quarter-percent off its closing high.
Todd Combs, portfolio manager at Berkshire Hathaway Inc., waits for the start of the “Berkshire Hathaway Invest In Yourself 5K” race presented by Brooks Sports, a Berkshire Hathaway Inc. company, on the sidelines of the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, U.S., on Sunday, May 4, 2014.
Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett, who will step down as CEO at the end of the year, said in a press release that Combs “made many great hires” for Geico and “broadened its horizons.”
Nancy Pierce, operations chief at Geico, will replace Combs as the business’ CEO. Berkshire also announced that its CFO Marc Hamburg will retire in June 2027 and be replaced by Charles Chang, current CFO of Berkshire Hathaway Energy.
3. L.A. confidential
Dado Ruvic | Reuters
Both Wall Street and Hollywood were left reeling after the announcement of the Netflix–Warner Bros. deal on Friday. Now, the question is if the agreement can get over regulatory hurdles.
President Donald Trump’s administration views the deal with “heavy skepticism,” a senior administration official told CNBC’s Eamon Javers on Friday. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has already asked for an antitrust review, calling the deal an “anti-monopoly nightmare.”
Believing it has a better chance of securing regulatory approval, Paramount Skydance is weighing whether to bring a bid straight to WBD shareholders in a last-ditch effort to beat Netflix, sources told CNBC’s Alex Sherman. Meanwhile, movie theater operators are wondering whether they can survive if the Netflix deal makes the world’s largest streaming service the owner of a major film studio.
U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta said Google can’t enter into an agreement like it has with Apple, which it pays for search browser usage, unless the deal has termination date of a year or less. Mehta also listed requirements for the makeup of a committee that will decide who Google has to share its data with.
But as CNBC’s Jennifer Elias notes, these weren’t the most drastic punishments on the table. Mehta in September ruled against harsher penalties proposed by the Department of Justice, which could have included the forced sale of Google’s Chrome browser.
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5. Unfading endurance
How often should jeans really be washed?
Catherine Mcqueen | Moment | Getty Images
The global denim market is now a more than $100 billion industry, driven by major retailers such as Levi Strauss and American Eagle. But as CNBC’s Gabrielle Fonrouge reports, its origins are far more humble.
Blue jeans were born out of a woman’s frustration with the frequent rips in her gold miner husband’s denim pants. Her tailor’s solution — adding copper rivets to the garment’s key points of strain — signified the birth of what we know today as the blue jean. In the approximately century and a half since, the pant has become a staple of American fashion that transcends income class and trend cycles.
The Daily Dividend
Here’s what we’re keeping an eye on this week:
Monday: New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations
Tuesday: Job Openings & Labor Turnover data for October
Wednesday: Fed decision and press conference; Oracle and Adobe earnings (after the bell)
— CNBC’s Sean Conlon, Ryan Ermey, Alex Sherman, Lillian Rizzo, Dan Mangan, Sarah Whitten, John Melloy, Jennifer Elias and Gabrielle Fonrouge contributed to this report. Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition.
IBM CEO Arvind Krishna speaks at the SXSW conference in Austin, Texas, on March 11, 2025.
Andy Wenstrand | Sxsw Conference & Festivals | Getty Images
IBM announced Monday that it is acquiring data streaming platform Confluent in a deal worth $11 billion.
Shares of Confluent soared 29%. IBM stock climbed about 1%.
IBM will pay $31 per share in cash for all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Confluent, according to a release. The transaction is expected to close by the middle of 2026. Shares of Confluent closed at $23.14 on Friday.
Tune in at 10:10 a.m. ET as IBM CEO Arvind Krishna joins CNBC TV to discuss the deal. Watch in real time on CNBC+ or the CNBC Pro stream.
“With the acquisition of Confluent, IBM will provide the smart data platform for enterprise IT, purpose-built for AI,” IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said in a release.
IBM said the deal will bolster its artificial intelligence offerings as it expects global data growth to more than double by 2028.
Read more CNBC tech news
Wedbush called it a “strong move” from IBM that adds more data processing capabilities to its hybrid cloud ecosystem and is a natural fit to help eliminate data silos for powering AI.
“We loudly applaud this deal as Arvind takes IBM further into the AI Revolution with more acquisitions likely ahead,” the analysts said in a note.
Wedbush maintained its overweight rating on IBM and $325 price target. IBM closed at $307.94 on Friday.
The addition of Confluent fits with IBM’s deal last year to land cloud software maker HashiCorp for $6.4 billion and the 2023 move to acquire Apptio in a deal worth $4.6 billion. Both of those acquisitions were all-cash deals.
Confluent has more than 6,500 clients across major industries and works with Anthropic, Amazon‘s AWS, Google Cloud Platform, Microsoft, Snowflake and others.
Ben Powell, chief strategist for Middle East and Asia Pacific at BlackRock Investment Institute, during a Bloomberg Television interview at the Abu Dhabi Finance Week (ADFW) conference in Abu Dhabi, AD, United Arab Emirates, on Monday, Dec. 9, 2024.
Bloomberg | Getty Images
The wave of capital pouring into artificial intelligence infrastructure is far from peaking, said Ben Powell, chief investment strategist for APAC at BlackRock, arguing the sector’s “picks and shovels” suppliers — from chipmakers to energy producers and copper-wire manufacturers — remain the clearest winners as hyperscalers race to outspend one another.
The surge in AI-related capital expenditure shows no sign of slowing as tech giants push aggressively to secure an edge in what they see as a winner-takes-all contest, Powell told CNBC Monday on the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi Finance Week.
“The capex deluge continues. The money is very, very clear,” he said, adding that BlackRock is focused on what he called a “traditional picks and shovels capex super boom, which still feels like it’s got more to go.”
AI infrastructure has been one of the biggest drivers of global investment this year, fueling a broader market rally, even as some investors question how long the boom can last.
Nvidia, whose GPU chips are the backbone of the AI revolution, became the first company to briefly surpass $5 trillion in market capitalization amid a dizzying AI-fueled market rally that sparked talk of an AI bubble.
The build-out has set off long-term procurement efforts across the tech sector, from chip supply agreements to power commitments. Grid operators from the U.S. to the Middle East are racing to meet soaring electricity demand from new data centers. Companies, including Amazon and Meta, have budgeted tens of billions of dollars annually for AI-related investments.
S&P Global estimates data-center power demand could nearly double by 2030, mostly driven by hyperscale, enterprise and leased facilities, along with crypto-mining sites.
‘Dipping toes into credit market’
Powell also noted that leading tech firms have only begun to tap capital markets to fund the next phase of AI expansion, suggesting additional capital is on the way.
“The big companies have only just started dipping their toes into the credit markets… feels like there’s a lot more they can do there,” he said.
The “hyperscalers” are behaving as if coming second would effectively leave them out of the market, Powell said. That mindset, he added, has pushed firms to accelerate spending even at the risk of overshooting.
Much of that capital, Powell noted, is likely to flow to the companies powering the AI build-out rather than model developers, reinforcing a growing view among global investors that the most durable gains from the AI boom may lie in the hardware, energy and infrastructure ecosystems behind the technology.
“If we’re the recipients of that cash flow, I guess that’s a pretty good place to be, whether you’re making chips, whether you’re making energy all the way down to the copper wiring,” Powell noted, expecting “positive surprises driving those stocks in the year ahead.”