Reddit power users balk at chance to participate in IPO as Wall Street debut nears
Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Sarah Gilbert spends a lot of time on Reddit. For the past three years, she’s helped moderate the r/AskHistorians subreddit, which has 2 million members and was the subject of her Ph.D. dissertation. She’s been a lurker on the forum since 2012.
But when the subject turns to Reddit’s upcoming IPO, Gilbert’s excitement wanes. The 19-year-old social media company set aside 8% of the shares in its offering for certain users and moderators, along with some company insiders and their friends and family members. Airbnb, Rivian and Doximity employed a similar model when they went public, as a way to reward power users or early customers.
Reddit’s initial public offering is different. While its predecessors hit the market during a record IPO stretch in 2020 and 2021, Reddit’s planned New York Stock Exchange debut this week will be the first major tech offering of the year, and lands after a major reckoning in the industry that was highlighted by tumbling valuations, reduced investment and an emphasis on profit over growth. The two venture-backed tech debuts of 2023 — Instacart and Klaviyo — failed to pop, a sign that getting in at the IPO price no longer equals free money.
It’s not just market conditions that have Reddit moderators like Gilbert forgoing the investment opportunity. Reddit has long had a rocky relationship with moderators and the site’s most dedicated users, or Redditors. Following a user protest last year stemming from a policy change that forced some third-party developers to pay more for use of the company’s application programming interface (API), Reddit CEO Steve Huffman compared site moderators to “landed gentry.”
Gilbert, who works as a research manager at Cornell University’s Citizens and Technology Lab, said the bad blood from the conflict has “really sort of knocked a lot of the goodwill and the energy” from those who had been spending the most time and effort on trying to build up communities on the site. It’s hard for her to now see the appeal in paying money to own a piece of the company and betting on its future.
“It’s like, OK, you’ve invested your time, you’ve invested your emotional well-being and put yourself at risk, now invest your money into this platform too,” Gilbert said. “It doesn’t really feel like Reddit is necessarily giving back, so much as it feels like maybe it’s asking for even more.”
Reddit founders Alexis Ohanian (L) and Steve Huffman (R)
Reddit, a site with 60,000 daily active moderators hosting forums on topics from the mainstream to the extremely obscure, plans to sell shares at $31 to $34 a piece in its IPO, potentially valuing the company at around $6.5 billion, and trade under ticker symbol “RDDT.” At the tech market peak in 2021, Reddit was valued by private investors at $10 billion, according to PitchBook.
Reddit’s directed share program, or DSP, is intended for certain U.S.-based users with high site-wide reputations — measured in so-called Karma points — or for moderators, as a way to “recognize those who have contributed significantly to Reddit over the years,” the company said in explaining the offering. In total, Reddit said underwriters have reserved 1.76 million of the 8 million shares in the IPO for the DSP.
Some invitees say they’re worried about the company’s financial situation. Reddit recorded a net loss of $90.8 million last year, an improvement from 2022, when its deficit came it at $158.6 million. The company said in its prospectus that it’s racked up a cumulative loss of $716.6 million.
Reddit is competing for advertising dollars in a notoriously difficult market against the likes of Google and its YouTube service, Facebook‘s apps and TikTok. In its filing, Reddit also names as competitors Wikipedia, Snap, X, Pinterest, Roblox, Discord and Amazon’s Twitch.
A moderator with username BuckRowdy, who spoke on condition that his real name not be disclosed, told CNBC that he’s passing on the IPO, and said his sentiment appears to be widely shared.
“People do seem to have like a negative view that it’s going to go down immediately or you’re going to lose money,” said BuckRowdy, who moderates subreddits including r/UnresolvedMysteries and r/TrueCrime. “I don’t see anybody in any spaces I’m in that are taking it seriously, that are thinking of it as an investment or anything along those lines.”
Reddit didn’t provide a comment for this story.
Meme stocks
Of all companies, Reddit knows something about stock market volatility.
The site is home to the infamous r/wallstreetbets subreddit that helped spur the 2021 boom in meme stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment, which rose with meteoric speed despite any changes in their business fundamentals.
It’s a risk the company acknowledges in its IPO filing:
“Given the broad awareness and brand recognition of Reddit, including as a result of the popularity of r/ wallstreetbets among retail investors, and the direct access by retail investors to broadly available trading platforms, the market price and trading volume of our Class A common stock could experience extreme volatility for reasons unrelated to our underlying business or macroeconomic or industry fundamentals, which could cause you to lose all or part of your investment if you are unable to sell your shares at or above the initial offering price.”
Joshua White, an assistant professor of finance at Vanderbilt University, said Reddit’s DSP could be “nice stocking stuff” if it were to follow the lead of companies that went public in 2020 and 2021.
“This is usually a good deal because really hot IPO stocks typically go up on the first day,” White said.
However, given the dearth of tech IPOs since the start of 2022, White said Reddit’s offering is “probably a little more risky.”
While there’s plenty of skepticism heading into the IPO, some Redditors appear poised to get in on the action, based on forum commentary.
A Reddit user with the handle FormicaDinette33 said in the r/RedditIPO subreddit that they plan to purchase 10 shares “just to experience the process,” while SpindriftRascal plans to spend $5,000, an amount allowing them to “to be happy if it does well and not care much if it tanks,” according to a post.
Sweatycat, a moderator of the r/IAmA and r/LifeProTips subreddits, plans to participate in the IPO, telling CNBC they “both like Reddit as a company and see this as a potentially good investment opportunity.” The Redditor, who asked not to be identified further, said other moderators may have “mixed feelings” about Reddit going public because of their “strained relationship” with management.
For wrestlegirl, who moderates the AEWOfficial subreddit for over 100,000 wrestling fans, the stock purchase program is “a nice enough thing to offer, but it’s not a reward of any sort” and doesn’t project to be a “long-term stable investment.”
Wrestlegirl, who also asked not to be named, told CNBC that owning the stock may be “something fun to have or an amusing experience to talk about later, but I don’t think anyone is actually taking Reddit’s public offering seriously.”
‘It’s being mocked so much’
Akaash Maharaj is ineligible for the program as a Canadian resident. He said he would decline an invitation to participate even if he could, largely because of concerns about the business. He also says moderators shouldn’t be motivated to improve the company’s share price at the expense of the “long-term identity of the platform.”
“There are very few Redditors who I would say are enthusiastic about the IPO,” Maharaj told CNBC.
For roughly five years, Maharaj has helped moderate the forum r/Equestrian, consisting of 72,000 horse lovers. He’s also a member of the Reddit Mod Council, a select group of power users who gather with the goal of improving the site and, in his words, to “make decisions that are in everyone’s interest.”
“Our track record there is mixed,” Maharaj said, with a chuckle.
Even though he’s dubious about the IPO and not particularly bullish on the stock, Maharaj said the DSP could be a “very shrewd” way for management to invite participation and fend off any effort by the Reddit community to spoil a major moment in the company’s history.
“Had they not done that, there would have been a heightened risk that more Redditors would have rhetorically run down the stock as it goes to market,” Maharaj said. The company is saying, “Look, buy some shares and you might make money, but you only make money if you don’t do something to disrupt the IPO itself,” he said.
Wrestlegirl said that despite the swarm of negativity she’s seeing among moderators, she thinks a decent number of them will participate in the IPO.
“It’s being mocked so much it’s almost a meme,” she said. “I think a lot of those jeering secretly don’t want to be left out of things if this turns into a GameStop.”
Courtnie Swearingen says she won’t be one of them.
Swearingen, an attorney, has been a Reddit moderator for about 13 years, currently for forums on music and on her hometown of Chicago. Over that time, she’s built up a distrust of the company. In 2015, after the controversial firing of a Reddit employee named Victoria Taylor, hundreds of moderators locked their subreddits in a protest effort led by Swearingen.
Swearingen told CNBC that after that ordeal, Reddit flew her and other moderators to San Francisco to collect feedback and to clear the air. But she hasn’t seen much change for the better, and no longer expects it.
“Every time anything is promised, or new ideas are presented, it’s never done well and it never goes well,” Swearingen said. “Even with the opportunity to buy in, I would not. I cannot risk money on a company that I haven’t been able to trust for a decade.”
— CNBC’s Cameron Costa contributed to this report
Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies speaks during the Digital X event on September 07, 2021 in Cologne, Germany.
Andreas Rentz | Getty Images
Palantir shares continued their torrid run on Friday, soaring as much as 9% to a record, after the developer of software for the military announced plans to transfer its listing to the Nasdaq from the New York Stock Exchange.
The stock jumped past $64.50 in afternoon trading, lifting the company’s market cap to $147 billion. The shares are now up more than 50% since Palantir’s better-than-expected earnings report last week and have almost quadrupled in value this year.
Palantir said late Thursday that it expects to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Nov. 26, under its existing ticker symbol “PLTR.” While changing listing sites does nothing to alter a company’s fundamentals, board member Alexander Moore, a partner at venture firm 8VC, suggested in a post on X that the move could be a win for retail investors because “it will force” billions of dollars in purchases by exchange-traded funds.
“Everything we do is to reward and support our retail diamondhands following,” Moore wrote, referring to a term popularized in the crypto community for long-term believers.
Moore appears to have subsequently deleted his X account. His firm, 8VC, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Last Monday after market close, Palantir reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that topped estimates and issued a fourth-quarter forecast that was also ahead of Wall Street’s expectations. CEO Alex Karp wrote in the earnings release that the company “absolutely eviscerated this quarter,” driven by demand for artificial intelligence technologies.
U.S. government revenue increased 40% from a year earlier to $320 million, while U.S. commercial revenue rose 54% to $179 million. On the earnings call, the company highlighted a five-year contract to expand its Maven technology across the U.S. military. Palantir established Maven in 2017 to provide AI tools to the Department of Defense.
The post-earnings rally coincides with the period following last week’s presidential election. Palantir is seen as a potential beneficiary given the company’s ties to the Trump camp. Co-founder and Chairman Peter Thiel was a major booster of Donald Trump’s first victorious campaign, though he had a public falling out with Trump in the ensuing years.
When asked in June about his position on the 2024 election, Thiel said, “If you hold a gun to my head I’ll vote for Trump.”
Thiel’s Palantir holdings have increased in value by about $3.2 billion since the earnings report and $2 billion since the election.
In September, S&P Global announced Palantir would join the S&P 500 stock index.
Analysts at Argus Research say the rally has pushed the stock too high given the current financials and growth projections. The analysts still have a long-term buy rating on the stock and said in a report last week that the company had a “stellar” quarter, but they downgraded their 12-month recommendation to a hold.
The stock “may be getting ahead of what the company fundamentals can support,” the analysts wrote.
Charles Liang, chief executive officer of Super Micro Computer Inc., during the Computex conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, June 5, 2024. The trade show runs through June 7.
Annabelle Chih | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Super Micro Computer could be headed down a path to getting kicked off the Nasdaq as soon as Monday.
That’s the potential fate for the server company if it fails to file a viable plan for becoming compliant with Nasdaq regulations. Super Micro is late in filing its 2024 year-end report with the SEC, and has yet to replace its accounting firm. Many investors were expecting clarity from Super Micro when the company reported preliminary quarterly results last week. But they didn’t get it.
The primary component of that plan is how and when Super Micro will file its 2024 year-end report with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and why it was late. That report is something many expected would be filed alongside the company’s June fourth-quarter earnings but was not.
The Nasdaq delisting process represents a crossroads for Super Micro, which has been one of the primary beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom due to its longstanding relationship with Nvidia and surging demand for the chipmaker’s graphics processing units.
The one-time AI darling is reeling after a stretch of bad news. After Super Micro failed to file its annual report over the summer, activist short seller Hindenburg Research targeted the company in August, alleging accounting fraud and export control issues. The company’s auditor, Ernst & Young, stepped down in October, and Super Micro said last week that it was still trying to find a new one.
The stock is getting hammered. After the shares soared more than 14-fold from the end of 2022 to their peak in March of this year, they’ve since plummeted by 85%. Super Micro’s stock is now equal to where it was trading in May 2022, after falling another 11% on Thursday.
Getting delisted from the Nasdaq could be next if Super Micro doesn’t file a compliance plan by the Monday deadline or if the exchange rejects the company’s submission. Super Micro could also get an extension from the Nasdaq, giving it months to come into compliance. The company said Thursday that it would provide a plan to the Nasdaq in time.
A spokesperson told CNBC the company “intends to take all necessary steps to achieve compliance with the Nasdaq continued listing requirements as soon as possible.”
While the delisting issue mainly affects the stock, it could also hurt Super Micro’s reputation and standing with its customers, who may prefer to simply avoid the drama and buy AI servers from rivals such as Dell or HPE.
“Given that Super Micro’s accounting concerns have become more acute since Super Micro’s quarter ended, its weakness could ultimately benefit Dell more in the coming quarter,” Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a note this week.
A representative for the Nasdaq said the exchange doesn’t comment on the delisting process for individual companies, but the rules suggest the process could take about a year before a final decision.
A plan of compliance
The Nasdaq warned Super Micro on Sept. 17 that it was at risk of being delisted. That gave the company 60 days to submit a plan of compliance to the exchange, and because the deadline falls on a Sunday, the effective date for the submission is Monday.
If Super Micro’s plan is acceptable to Nasdaq staff, the company is eligible for an extension of up to 180 days to file its year-end report. The Nasdaq wants to see if Super Micro’s board of directors has investigated the company’s accounting problem, what the exact reason for the late filing was and a timeline of actions taken by the board.
The Nasdaq says it looks at several factors when evaluating a plan of compliance, including the reasons for the late filing, upcoming corporate events, the overall financial status of the company and the likelihood of a company filing an audited report within 180 days. The review can also look at information provided by outside auditors, the SEC or other regulators.
Last week, Super Micro said it was doing everything it could to remain listed on the Nasdaq, and said a special committee of its board had investigated and found no wrongdoing. Super Micro CEO Charles Liang said the company would receive the board committee’s report as soon as last week. A company spokesperson didn’t respond when asked by CNBC if that report had been received.
If the Nasdaq rejects Super Micro’s compliance plan, the company can request a hearing from the exchange’s Hearings Panel to review the decision. Super Micro won’t be immediately kicked off the exchange – the hearing panel request starts a 15-day stay for delisting, and the panel can decide to extend the deadline for up to 180 days.
If the panel rejects that request or if Super Micro gets an extension and fails to file the updated financials, the company can still appeal the decision to another Nasdaq body called the Listing Council, which can grant an exception.
Ultimately, the Nasdaq says the extensions have a limit: 360 days from when the company’s first late filing was due.
A poor track record
There’s one factor at play that could hurt Super Micro’s chances of an extension. The exchange considers whether the company has any history of being out of compliance with SEC regulations.
Between 2015 and 2017, Super Micro misstated financials and published key filings late, according to the SEC. It was delisted from the Nasdaq in 2017 and was relisted two years later.
Super Micro “might have a more difficult time obtaining extensions as the Nasdaq’s literature indicates it will in part ‘consider the company’s specific circumstances, including the company’s past compliance history’ when determining whether an extension is warranted,” Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson wrote in a note earlier this month. He has a neutral rating on the stock.
History also reveals just how long the delisting process can take.
Charles Liang, chief executive officer of Super Micro Computer Inc., right, and Jensen Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia Corp., during the Computex conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, June 5, 2024.
Annabelle Chih | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Super Micro missed an annual report filing deadline in June 2017, got an extension to December and finally got a hearing in May 2018, which gave it another extension to August of that year. It was only when it missed that deadline that the stock was delisted.
In the short term, the bigger worry for Super Micro is whether customers and suppliers start to bail.
Aside from the compliance problems, Super Micro is a fast-growing company making one of the most in-demand products in the technology industry. Sales more than doubled last year to nearly $15 billion, according to unaudited financial reports, and the company has ample cash on its balance sheet, analysts say. Wall Street is expecting even more growth to about $25 billion in sales in its fiscal 2025, according to FactSet.
Super Micro said last week that the filing delay has “had a bit of an impact to orders.” In its unaudited September quarter results reported last week, the company showed growth that was slower than Wall Street expected. It also provided light guidance.
The company said one reason for its weak results was that it hadn’t yet obtained enough supply of Nvidia’s next-generation chip, called Blackwell, raising questions about Super Micro’s relationship with its most important supplier.
“We don’t believe that Super Micro’s issues are a big deal for Nvidia, although it could move some sales around in the near term from one quarter to the next as customers direct orders toward Dell and others,” wrote Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes in a note this week.
Super Micro’s head of corporate development, Michael Staiger, told investors on a call last week that “we’ve spoken to Nvidia and they’ve confirmed they’ve made no changes to allocations. We maintain a strong relationship with them.”
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