“It’s a big deal for this government,” says Simon Case.

“It’s the clearest indication yet of what they plan to do between now and the general election, a translation of their manifesto.

“This is where you should expect the chancellor to say, on behalf of the government: ‘This is what we’re about’.”

As the former cabinet secretary, Mr Case was the man in charge of the civil service during the last spending review, in 2021.

On Wednesday, Rachel Reeves will unveil the Labour government’s priorities for the next three years. But it’s unclear whether it will provide all that much of an answer about what it’s really about.

Unlike the Autumn budget, when the chancellor announced her plans on where to tax and borrow to fund overall levels of spending, the spending review will set out exactly how that money is divided up between the different government departments.

Since the start of the process in December those departments have been bidding for their share of the cash – setting out their proposed budgets in a negotiation which looks set to continue right up to the wire.

This review is being conducted in an usual level of detail, with every single line of spending assessed, according to the chancellor, on whether it represents value for money and meets the government’s priorities. Budget proposals have been scrutinised by so called “challenge panels” of independent experts.

It’s clear that health and defence will be winners in this process given pre-existing commitments to prioritise the NHS – with a boost of up to £30bn expected – and to increase defence spending.

On Sunday morning, the government press release trumpeted an impressive-sounding “£86bn boost” to research and development (R&D), with the Science and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle sent out on the morning media round to celebrate as record levels of investment.

We’re told this increased spending on the life sciences, advanced manufacturing and defence will lead to jobs and growth across the country, with every £1 in investment set to lead to a £7 economic return.

But the headline figure is misleading. It’s not £86bn in new funding. That £86bn has been calculated by adding together all R&D investment across government for the next three years, which will reach an annual figure of £22.5bn by 2029-30. The figure for this year was already set to be £20.4bn; so while it’s a definite uplift, much of that money was already allocated.

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Peter Kyle also highlighted plans for “the most we’ve ever spent per pupil in our school system”.

I understand the schools budget is to be boosted by £4.5bn. Again, this is clearly an uplift – but over a three-year period, that equates to just £1.5bn a year (compared with an existing budget of £63.7bn). It also has to cover the cost of extending free school meals, and the promised uplift in teachers’ pay.

In any process of prioritisation there are losers as well as winners.

We already know about planned cuts to the Department of Work and Pensions – but other unprotected departments like the Home Office and the Department of Communities and Local Government are braced for a real spending squeeze.

We’ve heard dire warnings about austerity 2.0, and the impact that would have on the government’s crime and policing priorities, its promises around housing and immigration, and on the budgets for cash-strapped local councils.

The chancellor wants to make it clear to the markets she’s sticking to her fiscal rules on balancing the books for day-to-day spending.

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But the decision to loosen the rules around borrowing to fund capital investment have given her greater room to manoeuvre in funding long-term infrastructure projects.

That’s why we’ve seen her travelling around the country this week to promote the £15.6bn she’s spending on regional transport projects.

The Treasury team clearly wants to focus on promoting the generosity of these kind of investments, and we’ll hear more in the coming days.

But there’s a real risk the story of this spending review will be about the departments which have lost out – and the promises which could slip as a result.

Nigel Farage will pledge to reopen Port Talbot’s steel blast furnaces if in power in Wales, as his Reform UK party sets its sights on being the government in the Senedd next year.

In a speech in Port Talbot later, Mr Farage will outline how next year’s Welsh parliament elections will be the primary focus of his party.

The MP for Clacton has already ruled out standing at the Senedd elections next year. It is unclear who will lead the Reform party in Wales.

Reindustrialising Wales will be at the centre of his speech. Acknowledging the task at hand won’t be quick or easy, Mr Farage is also expected to suggest a return to coal mining, if suitable, as part of Reform’s “long-term ambition to reopen Port Talbot steel”.

A Reform source told Sky News: “We have said and say again that we think it’s better to use British coal for British steel than imported coal.”

Port Talbot was the largest steelmaking plant in the UK until the two blast furnaces were switched off in September 2024, which saw the loss of 2,800 jobs as part of the transition to greener production methods. Electric arc furnaces are replacing both blast furnaces and are set to be operational by early 2028.

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Wales is set to head to the polls in May next year and Reform hopes to end the 26-year Labour government reign in Wales.

The Reform source said Mr Farage’s speech “will tap into the hearts and minds of a deeply patriotic nation that feels betrayed and forgotten about by Labour”.

Recent polling by Barn Cymru saw the Labour vote share in Wales collapse to 18%, with Reform second in the polls on 25% behind Plaid Cymru on 30%, whereas the Conservatives who are currently the opposition in the Senedd are on 13%.

Reform believes the performance of their party in Scotland confirms they can win in Wales next year. The source told Sky News: “We are the main challenger to Labour in Wales. A vote for the Conservatives is a vote for Labour.”

A corporate intelligence firm which employs Sir John Sawers, the former head of MI6, is closing in on a deal to sell a big stake to a buyout firm.

Sky News has learnt that G3, which was founded in 2004 and advises clients on a range of risks affecting their businesses, has been in detailed talks in recent weeks with private equity suitors including Oakley Capital and KKR.

Precise details of a transaction were unclear on Sunday, although one source suggested that a deal was likely in the coming days, and could value the business at between £200m and £250m.

They said that Oakley Capital – founded by the entrepreneur Peter Dubens – had emerged as the most likely investor, although a deal had yet to be agreed.

Bridgepoint, another London-based private equity firm, had also expressed an interest in G3, the source added.

G3 already has some external investment, having struck a deal with All Seas Capital in 2022, according to the latter’s website.

The firm – which files accounts under the name G3 Good Governance Group – advises companies, private equity firms, sovereign wealth funds and pension funds on areas of commercial risk such as cybersecurity, reported a 27% rise in revenue in 2023.

During that year, the latest for which accounts are available, it recorded earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of nearly £9m.

Sir John, who stepped down as the head of MI6 in 2014, was named chairman of G3’s advisory board last year.

Oakley Capital declined to comment, while G3 could not be reached for comment this weekend.