Big Auto is begging governments to let them go bankrupt as Chinese EVs loom
Automakers are fiercely lobbying governments to water down already-compromised emissions rules, but doing so will only lead to their doom as market entrants that are serious about EVs will continue ramping them anyway.
The auto industry is electrifying, and all new cars will be electric in the relatively near future. This is not in dispute by any serious person – and any alternative scenario, where humans continue to pollute as much as we do today, will result in worse and worse results for humanity the longer we pollute as climate change becomes progressively worse.
It is necessary that we stop burning fossil fuels, and fast. This is not a matter of opinion, it’s a matter of physics, and physics does not care about your arguments to the contrary.
And yet, the auto industry – which is responsible for more pollution than any other sector, at least in rich countries – still lobbies to worsen emissions reduction targets, even when those targets were already pushed back to begin with.
Automakers beg governments to let them emit more poison
We saw it this week in both Europe and the US. BMW, VW and Renault asked European regulators to push back the 2035 gas car phase-out, despite that this timeline has already been loosened. And in the US, the EPA finalized rules, but softened them due to auto industry lobbying – and the president of the main auto industry lobbyist characterized the final rules as a “stretch goal,” suggesting that he thinks there should be further softening of the already-softened rule.
Even these softened EPA rules will upend the industry, as current automaker commitments are not enough to meet the targets. Either automakers need to up their game, or someone is going to have to fill the millions-vehicle gap between commitments and requirements. And if traditional automakers don’t fill that gap, then new entrants will.
The lobbying is reminiscent of what the industry did from 2017-2021, when it lobbied an ignorant reality TV host to torpedo well-reasoned regulations which would have resulted in significantly more regulatory certainty for the industry. It eventually recognized its error, but Pandora’s box was already opened.
Today, the exact same automaker lobby which originally lobbied to fracture US and CA regulations – the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, previously known as Global Automakers, led by John Bozzella both then and now – still routinely complains about the two regulatory regimes being different, despite being personally responsible for the current state of affairs.
The compulsion against regulation is pathological. Even in situations where it doesn’t make sense to lobby against regulation, businesses will often still do so.
But wait, maybe it’s not a compulsion against all regulation. Because at the same time that automakers are begging for the ability to continue the global-scale mass murder that they continually enable (via pollution that kills millions worldwide per year), they’re also begging governments to slow down other parts of the industry that are taking the EV transition seriously.
Namely: China.
Chinese EVs will grow, whether you like it or not
China is actually a little late to the EV party. Until a few years ago, EV market share in China lagged other leading regions, but uptake in recent years has been quite rapid. NEV (EV+PHEV) market share should crest 50% in China next quarter, ahead of basically everywhere except the Nordic countries.
But as often happens, China may not always be the first entrant into a market, but once it truly commits its effort to something, those efforts tend to bear fruit rapidly.
Chinese EV sales have started taking off overseas, particularly in Europe. While they still make up a relatively small percentage of the market – around 10% – that share has risen rapidly from less than 1% in 2019 (and it might be higher if Chinese automakers could find more ships, but they’re working on that).
In response to this rise in Chinese EV sales, instead of recognizing that they need to pick up their game, European automakers are… begging the EU to investigate the “flood” of Chinese EVs, even to the point of proposing retroactive tariffs. They contend that the Chinese government unfairly subsidizes its auto sector, making prices uncompetitively low. Nevermind that European governments also subsidize their auto sector, and that low prices are good for consumers (in fact, if EU consumers are benefitting from Chinese subsidies, that represents a transfer of wealth from China to the EU).
Sure, begging governments for help isn’t the only thing they’re doing, they’re also finally picking their pants up off the floor and considering building cheaper EVs, but both of these actions are in direct conflict to lobbying efforts to loosen emissions regulations. If you’re worried about competition undercutting you and taking control of the EV transition, the answer is not to cut production and pretend that EV sales are going down when they aren’t, it’s to move faster.
In the US, the anti-China lobbying has been more pre-emptive. There aren’t significant amounts of Chinese-built EVs in the US, and the country already has a number of protectionist tariffs against China.
The recent Inflation Reduction Act, which created hundreds of billions of dollars of incentives for EVs and green energy, does include provisions intended to advantage automakers who avoid using China as any part of their supply chain. And scaremongering about China is abundant throughout US political and economic discussions.
So it’s clear that Western automakers aren’t looking to compete on price or volume, they’re looking to change the rules of the game instead – in a way that ensures more pollution and more expensive vehicles for consumers. They don’t want to win the game, they want the ref to hand it to them. It’s gamesmanship – which the industry is well acquainted with.
Rising EV penetration isn’t due to regulation, it’s due to demand
But do we really think that will work? EV penetration has broadly exceeded the minimums set by emissions rules. The driver so far has not been the rules, it has been consumer demand – and consumer recognition that gas vehicles will soon become an albatross around the neck of anyone who makes the silly decision to buy a new one. We’ve seen it happen in Norway with well above 90% plug-in car sales in advance of its world’s-most-aggressive 2025 target, with China’s rapid rise in EV penetration which caught foreign automakers by surprise, and with California hitting ZEV goals years ahead of schedule.
So loosening the rules doesn’t seem likely to slow down consumer demand – and the public wants stronger rules anyway. Instead, it will just annoy customers who are frustrated that there aren’t enough options available (as has been the case for years – look at the excitement over the R3 and EX30 when so few other small EVs exist), and mollify laggard manufacturers into thinking they can take longer to join the party.
But if automakers (and countries with prominent auto industries, like Japan) want to survive the transition, they cannot be the last to the party. The longer they wait, the more trouble they’ll be in, and the more advantage they cede to their competition.
How do we know this? Because it’s already happened, in this very industry, just over the course of the trailing decade.
Big Auto let Tesla win
Over the course of the last ten years, we’ve seen plenty of efforts to regulate away Tesla’s sales model for example, and few for automakers to actually effectively compete against Tesla’s vehicle programs. We’ve also seen industry push, state by state, for abusive EV fees and other silly regulations in a desperate attempt to punish EVs for daring to be a superior choice.
All of this happened while Tesla gradually entered more segments, and gradually took over those segments. The first indication was around 2014-2015, when sales of large luxury vehicles fell for every manufacturer except Tesla. This happened again with the Model 3. And the Model Y is now the best-selling vehicle in the world. (As for trucks, well, maybe that’ll be a different story)
And yet, despite a decade of warning, it’s only recently that we’ve started seeing serious EV programs from other automakers start to spin up. But most automakers still only have a few EVs, and many of them still share platforms with gas cars. And due to Tesla’s head start, they’re the one company that has gotten scale and costs to the level that they can arbitrarily cut prices, starting an EV price war that they’re best positioned to deal with.
In refusing to act faster to accept the future that’s already here, automakers have already ceded ground. On top of the aforementioned points of market share ceded to Tesla, the industry also gave Tesla the whole concept of fueling stations.
Over the last decade, every automaker said that charging wasn’t their problem and that someone else would come along to solve it, while simultaneously saying that they can’t ramp EVs because there isn’t enough charging out there.
Tesla also said that there wasn’t enough charging out there… so it built chargers (without having to be forced into doing so). And now, as a result of automakers’ intransigence – and also thanks to President Biden’s infrastructure law, which influenced Tesla to finally open up its Supercharger network – every vehicle manufacturer is now using Tesla’s NACS plug, which means all of them will use its Supercharger network, and Tesla will be able to extract profits on fueling from basically every car on the road. “Tesla, you’re welcome”; signed – the auto industry.
The path forward is action, not whining
Describing this recent history is not an attempt to brag by those of us who loudly said time and time again that this was coming, it’s intended as a very recent object lesson in how the automakers’ decisions were the wrong ones, and how they could learn from those decisions and make better ones going forward.
It is clear that business as usual was not the right choice over the last decade, and it’s not going to be the right choice in the next decade either. Relying on the age-old gamesmanship of trying to block new entrants to the market, delay change, and refuse to respond to consumer demand is not going to work for the automakers, especially in a globalized auto market where if you don’t make it, someone else will.
This isn’t to say that everyone in the auto industry is bad. There are plenty of people and even companies who “get it.” While BMW, VW and Renault just complained about EU regulations, the EU automakers’ association ACEA said “we are not contesting 2035… now we must get down to it.” And several automakers have stepped up to defend California’s regulations (including, oddly, both BMW and VW, two who are complaining about EU regulations now).
Frankly, I’ve long said that I don’t care who makes EVs, and that whoever makes them deserves the win. I’d prefer if my country got it together and did something that would benefit its competitiveness long term, but as a living creature on this Earth, my primary interest (and yours as well) is in solving the climate crisis. If we refuse to offer more efficient choices and China does, then China will have demonstrated that it deserves the win. If you don’t like that, then don’t hand it to them.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Environment
Kia’s first electric hatchback is here and it has nearly 400 miles range: Meet the EV4 hatch
Who said hatchbacks are going out of style? Kia’s first electric hatchback, the EV4, went on sale in the UK on Monday, offering the longest driving range of any of its EVs to date. Here’s a full breakdown of prices and specs.
Meet the EV4, Kia’s first electric hatchback
After launching the sedan version in Korea in April, the EV4 already took the top spot as the best-selling domestic electric sedan in its second month on the market. It’s already being called a “box office hit.” Now, the new hatch variant is officially on sale.
Kia opened orders for the EV4 hatchback in the UK on Monday, starting from £34,695 ($47,700). The EV4 is Kia’s first crack at an electric hatchback.
With an impressive 388 miles of WLTP driving range, it’s also the longest driving range of any EV Kia has ever produced.
The hatch is based on the same E-GMP platform as the EV4 sedan and Kia’s other electric vehicles, but it’s custom-tailored for European buyers.
The base EV4 “Air” is available with two battery packs: 58.2 kWh or 81.4 kWh, providing a WLTP driving range of up to 273 miles or 388 miles on a full charge. Kia said it’s the brand’s first electric vehicle offering a range of over 380 miles.
The sporty “GT-Line” and top-spec “GT-Line S” variants are available exclusively with the extended range (81.4 kWh) battery, which offers a range of 362 miles.
All EV4 hatchback models are powered by a single front motor with 201 bhp (150 kW) and 283 Nm of torque, good for a 0 to 62 mph sprint in 7.5 secs.
The interior features a similar setup to Kia’s latest EV models, like the EV3 and EV9, with its new connected car Navigation Cockpit (ccNC) at the center. The setup features dual 12.3″ driver clusters and infotainment screens in a curved panoramic display. An additional 5.3″ touchscreen for climate control is included for easy access to heating and ventilation functions.
Like the EV3, Kia’s electric hatchback will include an AI Assistant, powered by ChatGPT. It will also be the brand’s first vehicle with several entertainment settings, including “Rest mode” and Theatre mode.”
With all the seats upright, the electric hatch has a boot space of 435 liters, which Kia claims makes it “one of the most practical vehicles in its segment.”
With a length of 4,430 mm, a width of 1,860 mm, and a height of 1,485 mm, the EV4 hatchback is about the size of Kia’s XCreed.
The EV4 hatch can recharge from 10% to 80% in 29 minutes, while the larger battery will take approximately 31 minutes to charge using a 350 kW DC fast charger.
| Kia EV4 hatchback trim | Starting Price | Driving Range (WLTP) |
| Air Standard Range | £34,695 ($47,700) | 273 miles |
| Air Long Range | £37,695 ($51,700) | 388 miles |
| GT-Line | £39,395 ($54,000) | 362 miles |
| GT-Line S | £43,895 ($60,200) | 362 miles |
Kia opened orders for the new electric hatch on Monday, July 1. It will join the EV3, EV6, and EV9 in the brand’s European lineup. The EV4 hatchback will be built at Kia’s plant in Slovakia to expedite deliveries, which are scheduled to begin in the Fall.
Kia also announced on Monday that a new EV4 Fastback variant will join the lineup, but didn’t offer any additional details. More info, including prices and specs, “will be revealed in due course.” Check back soon for the latest.
What do you think of Kia’s first electric hatchback? Would you buy one in the US? Unfortunately, it’s not likely to make the trip overseas, but we will see the sedan version launch at some point in early 2026. Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Tesla (TSLA) is about to release its Q2 2025 delivery and production results. Here, we examine what Wall Street expects and what would make sense in reality.
Wall Street has struggled to understand Tesla’s decline in deliveries over the past year.
The analyst consensus for the first quarter was over 450,000 deliveries in January, but that number dropped to 377,000 deliveries by the end of the quarter.
They had to adjust down by 73,000 units, or about $3 billion in sales, over just two months, and they still got it wrong by more than 40,000 units.
Something similar is happening this quarter.
The Wall Street consensus was for 444,000 deliveries in April, indicating that analysts believed Tesla when it stated that the poor performance in the first quarter was solely due to the Model Y changeover and that it could return to growth or maintain demand, as it had delivered approximately 444,000 vehicles in Q2 2024.
However, that consensus waned throughout the quarter as data confirmed that Tesla is not production-constrained, yet still faces significant demand issues.
The Wall Street consensus for Tesla’s Q2 deliveries is now at 385,000 vehicles.
This represents a 13% decline year-over-year, despite Tesla currently offering record discounts and incentives, including 0% financing on both the Model 3 and Model Y in most markets.
However, it is likely that analysts are again overestimating deliveries.
Electrek’s Take
We have great data in Europe and China, where Tesla is basically down by a few thousand units despite the new Model Y being widely available during the second quarter.
The only primary market with limited data for the second quarter is the US.
The US is likely where the new Model Y had the biggest positive impact, and Tesla will need to perform well there for deliveries to surpass its Q1 2025 results.
The automaker has no chance at annual growth in the second quarter, but based on the best data available, I think it should end between 330,000 and 360,000 units – way below the current analyst consensus.
The lower end of the spectrum would result in a massive 25% drop in annual deliveries, while the higher end would result in a still significant 19% drop.
There’s no other way to cut it: Tesla’s automotive business is in crisis.
The crazy thing is that Wall Street is completely missing this story and only adjusting for the decline throughout the quarter.
At the end of the first quarter, analysts still expected Tesla to avoid a decline in deliveries in 2025, with approximately 1,850,000 vehicles.
The consensus now stands at 1.6 million units, which is still likely too high by 100,000 units, representing billions of dollars in sales.
Furthermore, they predict that Tesla will experience a resurgence in growth in 2026, despite the EV tax credit being eliminated in the US, its least affected market so far.
Tesla has minimal prospects for returning to automotive growth beyond some significant reforms that are nowhere in sight, given Musk’s leadership.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Tesla’s stock (TSLA) crashed by as much as 5% in pre-market trading after President Trump threatened to set DOGE on Elon Musk, who has been criticizing his ‘Big Beautiful Bill’.
After being kindly shown the door to the White House last month, Musk had a brief moment of clarity and started to criticize Trump and the Republican party, which he helped elect with almost $300 million of his own money in the 2024 elections.
He highlighted how Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” is expected to increase the deficit and debt. The Tesla CEO even linked Trump to Jeffrey Epstein, something that has been well known for decades, but Musk conveniently ignored it as he was backing the President and wearing hats that read, “Trump was right about everything.”
Musk quickly calmed down and even apologized for “going too far” and started praising Trump again.
That didn’t last long.
Over the last few days, as the Senate attempts to pass Trump’s budget and tax bill, Musk has renewed his efforts to halt the legislation.
The CEO appeared to renew the attacks after the Senate updated the bill to kill the EV incentive sooner and to increase taxes on solar and wind projects.
However, Musk said that he doesn’t mind EV and renewable energy subsidies going away, but he believes that fossil fuel subsidies should also be removed, which is not in the plans at all.
Trump campaigned on Musk’s money, claiming that he would get America to “drill, baby, drill” again.
The CEO went as far as threatening any Senator who vote for the bill, all Republicans, to face his money in their next primary. He added that if the bill passes, he will create a new “America Party.’
Musk’s attacks have focused on the bill itself and the Republicans voting for it, but Trump likes to call it his bill, and unsurprisingly, he is unhappy with Musk.
Last night, he took to Truth Social to highlight again that Musk “would probably have to close up shop and head back to South Africa” without US government subsidies.
The President then suggested that he could have DOGE, a department that Musk created, go after him and the subsidies that his companies get:
Elon Musk knew, long before he so strongly Endorsed me for President, that I was strongly against the EV Mandate. It is ridiculous, and was always a major part of my campaign. Electric cars are fine, but not everyone should be forced to own one. Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far, and without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa. No more Rocket launches, Satellites, or Electric Car Production, and our Country would save a FORTUNE. Perhaps we should have DOGE take a good, hard, look at this? BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED!!!
Tesla’s stock dropped by more than 4% in pre-market trading following the President’s threat.
Musk responded to the President by pointing out that he is asking to remove the subsidies, but he didn’t add his usual caveat of also removing all subsidies for fossil fuel.
Electrek’s Take
It’s both sad and funny to see Elon now. It’s sad because the US is plunging back into an energy dark age of relying on fossil fuels. Still, it’s amusing because Elon is acting as if he’s just now realizing what he has done, despite everyone but a few cult members screaming at him that this was going to happen for the last year.
Elon got what he wanted out of Trump with his $300 million, and now, he realizes that his influence has limits and that Trump is going to do way more damage than just what Musk wanted out of him: to stop illegal immigration and the so scary “woke mind virus.”
The result will be a significant blow to the growth of electric vehicles and clean energy in the US, and Tesla will be affected in the process, exactly what we have been saying for the last year.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike