‘Next pandemic is around the corner,’ expert warns – but would lockdown ever happen again?
Exactly four years ago today, Boris Johnson announced the UK’s first COVID lockdown, ordering people to “stay at home”.
Working from home became our reality and people were separated from their loved ones, while frontline workers tackled a new and unknown virus.
With a public inquiry under way into how the UK approached COVID-19, many have criticised when and how we went in and out of lockdowns.
So if another pandemic struck, would we have to lock down again – and how would it be different?
Sky News asks scientists and disaster experts whether we would ever be told to stay at home again, what lockdown measures would involve – and whether the public would comply.
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Boris Johnson’s 23 March 2020 statement in full
When could a pandemic happen again?
COVID has often been referred to as a “once in a lifetime” event. But with more than six million estimated COVID deaths globally, the last comparable pandemic only emerged four decades ago.
HIV/AIDs was first identified in 1981 and has killed 36 million people worldwide. Prior to that, the Hong Kong flu pandemic in 1968 caused about a million deaths, and the Spanish flu of 1918 50 million.
Scientists warn global warming and deforestation are also making it increasingly likely that a viral or bacterial agent will “jump” from animals to humans and cause another pandemic.
“We’re creating a situation that is rife for outbreaks,” says Dr Nathalie MacDermott, clinical lecturer in infectious diseases at King’s College London.
“I know that COVID was very hard for people and we want to believe we can just go back to normal and I understand that entirely.
“But the next pandemic is around the corner – it might be two years, it could be 20 years, it could be longer – but we can’t afford to let our guards down. We need to stay vigilant, prepared and ready to make sacrifices again.”
Dr MacDermott explains that by cutting down trees in the Amazon and parts of Africa, animals and insects are moving closer to people’s homes.
And with rising temperatures, outbreaks of mosquito and tick-borne viruses such as dengue, chikungunya, and Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) are happening in parts of Europe rarely seen before.
“As temperatures increase around the world, even the UK will become an area where it’s possible for those types of mosquitoes to live,” she says.
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Day 1: Life under lockdown
How long would lockdowns last?
While there were three lockdowns in England, each several months long, Professor Stephen Griffin, virologist at the University of Leeds, argues there should have “only ever been one”.
“Lockdown was an extreme reaction to a situation that had already got out of control,” he says.
But if there was investment in mitigations like air ventilation in public buildings and generic vaccines and antiviral drugs that could be adapted at speed, he argues, lockdowns would be shorter and less severe.
Dr MacDermott says that until the government, scientists and healthcare workers know more about an emerging virus and how it spreads, “a lockdown would be inevitable to some degree”.
Professor Adam Kucharski, co-director of the Centre for Epidemic Preparedness and Response at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, says that if you can’t contain severe infections and eliminate them completely – like Ebola in Africa and SARS-1 in East Asia – the only way to prevent a large disease epidemic is by heavily reducing transmission until a vaccine or treatment make the population less susceptible.
In the UK, it was eight months before the first COVID vaccine was administered and more than a year before it was rolled out more widely.
Pic: PA
Would we be banned from socialising – and would schools shut?
Professor Lucy Easthope, expert in mass fatalities and pandemics at the University of Bath, says she would want to see what she calls a “nuanced quarantine”.
“Lockdown is never a word I would have used – it’s only really associated with things like school shootings,” she says.
With regards to restrictions on socialising, she stresses how important “community and connection” are for disaster planning.
Outdoor dining pods at a restaurant in Cambridgeshire in 2020. Pic: PA
The 2016 UK flu plan says public gatherings are “an important indicator of normality” and that “there is little direct evidence of the benefits of cancelling such events”.
Authorities should immediately prioritise creating “large ventilated safe spaces” for children, pregnant women, and vulnerable people, she says.
This would involve places like cinemas, leisure centres, and town halls being repurposed as community centres.
She adds the importance of people having a “purpose”, so being able to meet people socially outside should be allowed as soon as the nature of the virus is clear.
Similarly, pubs, bars, cafes, and restaurants should be allowed to open outdoors as soon as possible, she says.
A school closed on 24 March 2020 in Knutsford, Cheshire. Pic: PA
While the flu plan does advise schools in infected areas to shut, contingency measures have been suggested for temporary marquees to host lessons – or just spaces for children to go.
“Lots of children don’t have gardens, so organised ways of getting them outside is important,” Professor Easthope says.
“For the marquees for education, you might expect to see three or four schools consolidated together.”
Another ‘pingdemic’?
The government spent billions on its test and trace system, which included testing centres, the coronavirus helpline, manual contact tracing by what was then Public Health England, and the NHS COVID app.
While rapid tests are important to stop people from spreading the virus further, and the app “had a lot of promise”, more innovative digital contact tracing may be required to avoid relying on another lockdown, Professor Kucharski says.
“The pingdemic was to some extent the NHS app doing what it was designed to do,” he says.
“But with the digital contact tracing infrastructure that some Asian countries had, you can limit disruption to those people at higher risk in a particular outbreak rather than reverting to blanket measures.”
He cautions that it would require “hard conversations” around privacy, but options include using smartphone location and debit card transactions to link people to identified cases.
In some countries, leaving quarantine would see people’s phones automatically notify tracers of potential further spread.
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March 2020: Sky News speaks to people about life under lockdown in Sheffield
Would the public comply?
When public health experts gave evidence to the COVID inquiry last year, they said they were wrong to assume the public would soon tire of a lockdown and suffer “behavioural fatigue”.
Social psychologist and crowd behaviour expert Chris Cocking says it was a lack of trust in government that caused compliance rates to fall – not simply getting “tired” of restrictions.
“The overall message should be positive,” the principal lecturer at the University of Brighton says. “Because if another situation arose, where it became necessary, people would be likely to comply.”
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He says if another lockdown was needed, the current Tory government would either have to minimise scandals over their own rule-breaking – or change hands completely to keep the public on board.
He adds: “If we had a new government, people would be far more likely to have faith in them because they would be less likely to say, ‘it’s the same bunch as before – why should we do it again?’
“And if they put more effort into not having situations like ‘Partygate’ or Dominic Cummings driving to Barnard Castle, they could appeal to the public’s shared sense of identity, and it would be possible for compliance rates to remain relatively high.”
COVID national memorial wall in London. Pic: PA
From COVID fines to arrests made during Black Lives Matter protests and the Sarah Everard vigil, Professor Easthope describes lockdown legislation as “definitely bad” and “cruelly applied”.
Dr Cocking argues lockdown laws are largely irrelevant to people’s decision to adhere to restrictions or not.
“It’s not the laws in place, it’s whether people psychologically identify with the need to comply,” he says.
And for people who don’t, engaging with each reason individually is important to avoid creating a mass movement of “lockdown sceptics”.
“People might feel unable to comply with restrictions for lots of different reasons. But it’s a real mistake to lump them all together because you then identify them all as part of the same group, which further alienates them from the authorities,” Dr Cocking adds.
Would we be well enough prepared?
Four years before COVID, the UK had carried out secret pandemic preparedness exercises for both flu and coronavirus outbreaks.
A detailed report on the flu exercise was compiled, but public health officials have told the COVID inquiry that the coronavirus drill wasn’t acted on.
A flu pandemic plan was compiled after Exercise Cygnus in 2016. Pic: Cabinet Office
According to Professors Kucharski and Easthope, the more extensive flu plan could be easily adapted.
“The separation of a flu plan from a coronavirus plan is nonsense,” Professor Kucharski says.
“The characteristics of COVID were a lot like the sort of infection in a flu pandemic. It should have been a wider discussion about what the acceptable outcome was from the horrendous trade-offs we were going to have to make.”
Read more:
Doctors suing NHS over long COVID
How widespread is COVID now?
Professor Easthope says in the late 2010s, she and other emergency planners identified holes in infrastructure that meant the UK “wasn’t ready for even a relatively manageable pandemic” in terms of health and social care. She also says stockpiles of PPE “failed” in 2017.
But she says the internet’s capacity to cope with so many processes moving online is both “enabling and unifying”.
“We just didn’t know how well it would perform, but in the end, it was one of the reasons we didn’t fall apart completely,” she says.
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson told Sky News: “Throughout the pandemic, the government acted to save lives and livelihoods, prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and deliver a world-leading vaccine rollout which protected millions of lives across the nation.
“We have always said there are lessons to be learnt from the pandemic and we are committed to learning from the COVID-19 inquiry’s findings which will play a key role in informing the government’s planning and preparations for the future. We will consider all recommendations made to the department in full.”
Prosecutions of sub postmasters by the Department for Work and Pensions could be “tainted” as Sky News reveals officials worked with now discredited Post Office investigators to secure convictions.
Around 100 prosecutions of Post Office staff were led by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) between 2001 and 2006.
It is understood that these usually involved the cashing in of stolen order books.
The Post Office itself wrongly prosecuted hundreds of sub-postmasters between 1999 and 2015 – based on evidence from the faulty Horizon accounting system.
The role of government
A Sky News investigation, however, has discovered that information was shared between Post Office investigation teams and the DWP.
Chair of the Justice Select Committee, Sir Robert Neill KC, said as a result DWP convictions “need to be looked at”.
“I hadn’t been aware of that, for example, there may have been material in the DWP case as a result of joint investigations – which suggests a disclosure failure,” he added.
“I think that’s the area they need to look at if we are saying their approach was tainted from the beginning – in the way the investigators adopted things – then joint operations I suspect would be just as tainted arguably as something where it has been the Post Office on its own.”
What was known?
A 2003 DWP report into fraud describes “joint working” and the “sharing of information” with the Post Office.
It also outlines a “Fraud Prevention Board” established by the DWP and Royal Mail Group plc which includes “the exchange of information that directly assists fraud prevention and investigations”.
In addition, separately, a 2003 letter seen by Sky News also indicates a connection between DWP and Post Office investigations.
The letter, from the then post affairs minister Stephen Timms, references the case of Roger Allen, a sub-postmaster from Norwich.
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It states: “Subsequent investigations by the police, the Post Office Investigation Department and the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) led to a prosecution by DWP…”
Roger Allen was convicted in 2004 of stealing pension payments and was sentenced to six months in prison. He died in March of this year.
Mr Allen had pleaded guilty to spare his wife – after his lawyer told him in a letter that there had been “an indication from the Crown that they may discontinue the proceedings against Mrs Allen were you minded to plead guilty”.
Despite the Criminal Cases Review Commission deciding Mr Allen had grounds to appeal against his conviction – it was upheld by the Court of Appeal in 2021.
DWP prosecutions are not covered in upcoming government legislation that will overturn Post Office convictions.
Roger Allen. Pic: Keren Simpson
Fighting to clear names
Keren Simpson, Roger’s daughter, has vowed to fight to clear his name posthumously.
She describes her father as a “proud” and “honest” man who “couldn’t face or deal” with the fact his conviction would not be overturned.
She says “in the end he obviously gave up” and there is “very little surviving evidence” because of the passage of time.
“He’s the innocent one,” Keren states. “I don’t see why he’s got to try and prove it. They have got to try and prove it, and show what evidence they actually had on my dad.
“Because the Department of Work and Pensions have put a statement out saying there was surveillance and witness testimonies and physical evidence to show it.
“Show me it.”
Roger Allen. Pic: Keren Simpson
Investigation failures?
Sky News has also seen documents that suggest failures by DWP investigators in a different case in the 2000s.
It involved a sub-postmaster who decided to plead not guilty and was acquitted of stealing by a jury.
In one extract it says a “senior investigating officer” was “willing to admit in open court that (they) had been neglectful in (their) duty in securing evidence”.
Another document appears to show a failure to review transaction logs used as evidence against the sub-postmaster.
Some logs appear to show that the accused did not cash the “dockets”, used to collect pension payments.
Other transaction logs indicate the sub-postmaster was not present at a particular branch when the theft was alleged to have occurred.
Christopher Head
Chris Head, former sub-postmaster and a campaigner for others, has also seen the documents and says they point to a “deeply flawed” DWP investigation.
“…they failed to obtain all transaction logs for the entirety of this case, but the ones that they have, they have they clearly haven’t looked at.”
He believes there are “more cases out there” which could be “part of a miscarriage of justice”.
A Department for Work and Pensions spokesperson said: “We do not recognise these claims.
“DWP investigates offences against the welfare system to protect taxpayers’ money, and between 2001 and 2006 a small number of Post Office staff were convicted for welfare-related fraud.
“These cases involved complex investigations and were backed by evidence including filmed surveillance, stolen benefit books and witness statements – they did not rely on Horizon evidence, and this has been accepted by the Court of Appeal.”
The Post Office says it “continues to help other prosecuting authorities to ensure that they have every assistance in taking their work forward”.
“This includes sharing all the information we have in relation to prosecutions which have been brought by other prosecutors.”
Meanwhile, Lord Sikka has tabled an amendment in the House of Lords to the Post Office (Horizon System) Offences Bill to include all DWP convictions.
An outbreak of a waterborne disease in Devon has prompted urgent warnings for residents to boil their tap water.
At least 22 cases of cryptosporidiosis disease have been confirmed in and around the town of Brixham in South West England.
But what is the parasite that is making people sick, what are the symptoms of being infected with it and how serious can it be?
What is cryptosporidiosis disease?
Cryptosporidiosis is the disease caused by the parasite cryptosporidium.
Often shortened to crypto, infections can be caused by drinking contaminated water or swallowing contaminated water in swimming pools or streams.
It can also be acquired through contact with the faeces of infected animals or humans.
What are the symptoms?
The symptoms of cryptosporidiosis include:
• profuse watery diarrhoea
• stomach pains
• nausea or vomiting
• low-grade fever
• loss of appetite
How long does it last?
Most people develop symptoms within one to 12 days of picking up the parasite.
Symptoms usually last for about two weeks, but can last up to six weeks or longer when the immune system is not working properly.
During the illness, you might think you are getting better but the illness returns a couple of days later before you fully recover.
How serious is it?
Most people recover, but in people with severely weakened immune systems it can cause severe disease and can be fatal.
Serious cases and death used to be more common, according to Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia (UEA).
This is because before effective antiretroviral treatments were introduced for HIV/AIDS, people living with these illnesses would not recover if they picked up cryptosporidiosis.
Who is most at risk of serious illness?
People with weak immune systems are at greater risk of serious illness. This includes:
• people on some immunosuppressive drugs, for example cancer or transplant patients
• people with untreated HIV/AIDS
• malnourished children
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Residents ‘worried’ over water parasite
Does it need treatment?
There is no specific treatment for cryptosporidiosis.
It important to drink plenty of fluids as diarrhoea or vomiting can lead to dehydration, according to advice from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
You might also want to talk to a pharmacist about oral rehydration sachets to help replace the sugar, salts and minerals the body has lost.
Dr Lincoln Sargeant, Torbay’s Director of Public Health, said anyone with “severe symptoms like bloody diarrhoea” should contact NHS 111 or their GP.
Severe cases may require hospital treatment.
How do you know if you have crypto?
The symptoms of crypto are similar to other stomach bugs, so the only way to know for sure if you have it is for your doctor to send a sample of your faeces to be tested in a laboratory.
Read more:
Water disease outbreak may last a week, expert says
Sickness outbreak forces farm to cancel animal cuddling
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
How can you stop the illness spreading?
If you are ill, stay away from nursery, school or work while you have symptoms, and for at least 48 hours after they stop.
You should also avoid swimming for two weeks after being unwell.
You should not prepare food for anyone else until 48 hours after diarrhoea has stopped.
Make sure you’re using good handwashing practices too, washing your hands thoroughly when handling food and after using the toilet.
The UKHSA also advises washing bedding and towels on the hottest possible cycle.
UK
Lucy Letby: Families of victims want inquiry live streamed to stop ‘grossly offensive’ conspiracy theories
The inquiry into how nurse Lucy Letby was able to murder babies at a hospital in Chester will begin to hear evidence in September.
Lawyers for the families of Letby’s victims told a preliminary hearing that the inquiry should be live streamed to the public to prevent the spread of “grossly offensive” conspiracy theories.
Letby was sentenced to 14 whole-life orders after she was convicted of murdering seven babies and attempting to murder six others while working on the neo-natal unit at the Countess of Chester Hospital in 2015 and 2016.
At the preliminary hearing, inquiry chair Lady Justice Thirlwall heard submissions on whether the hearings should be publicly broadcast.
Peter Skelton KC, on behalf of the families of six babies, said Letby’s crimes continued to be the subject of conspiracy theories online.
“One of the most effective antidotes to those theories and the damage they cause will be to see and to hear the people involved in the hospital give a true and comprehensive account of the facts,” he said.
But Andrew Kennedy KC, representing the Countess of Chester, said there was a “high level of anxiety” from staff at the prospect of giving evidence which was live streamed.
He said: “If a witness is concerned about live-streaming then if we can remove that concern we can, we would suggest, encourage candour, frankness and openness.”
Letby was given multiple whole-life terms and will be re-tried on one charge next month
Richard Baker KC, representing some of the other families, said: “Their desire in this case is for change and so that others do not experience what they have experienced.”
They were “saddened” and “concerned” at the suggestion the lack of transparency might continue, he said.
Lady Justice Thirlwall will give her decision on whether the hearings will be broadcast at a later date.
She had begun the proceedings with a pause for reflection on the “lives lost”, “injuries sustained” and “suffering” of the families.
Read more from Sky News:
Boy dies after falling from apartment block in east London
Top midwife slams progress two years after key report
The hearing was told 188 requests for information had been made to individuals including midwives, nurses, doctors, managers and members of the hospital board.
The inquiry hearings are scheduled to begin on 10 September at Liverpool Town Hall.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
The parents of the babies will be among the first to give evidence.
Counsel to the inquiry Rachel Langdale KC told the hearing: “There are no sides. It is a search for the truth.”
Last month Letby asked the Court of Appeal for permission to mount a full legal challenge to her conviction. Judges are due to rule on this at a later date.
The former nurse is due to face a re-trial next month on one charge of the attempted murder of a baby in February 2016.
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