Adam Boulton: Quitter politicians – an impossible job or the wrong people at the wrong time?
There goes another one. The Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar announced this week that he is quitting at the age of 45, explaining: “I don’t feel I’m the best person for that job any more.”
He is just the latest in a spate of national leaders to stand down voluntarily when seemingly at the peak of their powers.
Last year New Zealand’s former prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, found she had “no more in the tank” aged 43.
Nicola Sturgeon went at 53 to spend “a little bit more time on Nicola Sturgeon the human being”, since being first minister of Scotland “takes its toll on you”.
Politicians at the very top are not the only ones calling an early end to their careers.
The number of MPs standing down from the Commons has now reached 100 and counting.
That is what might be expected ahead of a likely “change election” when the opposition is poised to take over from incumbents. A major cause for concern is the comparatively young age of many of those giving up and quitting so soon.
From resigning prime ministers to departing MPs something must be going wrong if politics only holds such a passing attraction for people of talent.
Maybe the jobs of leader and people’s representative are more impossible than they have ever been in the social media age. Or perhaps the wrong people are going into politics at the wrong time. They are quitters not fighters.
“Poster Child” almost seems an apt description for some of those joining the exodus from Westminster: Nicola Richards 29, Mhairi Black 29, William Wragg 36 and Deheena Davison, 30.
Most of the MPs going prematurely have only known one government in their time at Westminster. The majority of those standing down have only been MPs since 2010 at the earliest. More than a dozen were first elected in 2017 and 2019.
The prospect of imminent or actual defeat has of course concentrated the minds of those handing in their parliamentary passes voluntarily. Two out of three who announced they are not standing again are Conservatives.
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‘I’m not the best person for the job’
Adverse circumstances higher up the food chain
Higher up the food chain, Varadkar, Ardern and Sturgeon were praised at first for going in their own time for no particular reason. It soon became apparent that they were in adverse circumstances.
Police Scotland’s Operation Branchform investigating alleged fraud by the SNP is still under way. Ms Sturgeon and her husband have both been interviewed under caution.
Meanwhile her party’s standing and support for Scottish independence have both headed south in opinion polls.
Ms Ardern once talked about seeking a third term as prime minister. Instead, under her successor as leader, her Labour Party was walloped by the conservative National Party in last year’s election, amid a reaction against the “woke” values she personified.
As his country’s youngest-ever prime minister, gay and from an Indian ethnic background, Mr Varadkar also embodied Ireland’s rapid liberalisation.
But this month, he and Dublin’s political establishment suffered the setback of resounding defeat in a double referendum attempting to modernise the constitution on “relationships” outside marriage and the role of women.
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Mr Varadkar, from the right of centre Fine Gael party, owes his seven years in office to a series of pacts with the opposition Fianna Fail, which were largely designed to keep the republican Sinn Fein away from power.
A general election is due soon and Sinn Fein now tops the polls in the south under Mary Lou MacDonald. Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill is first minister in Northern Ireland.
Not like previous generations
Today’s quitter politicians certainly face some stark challenges but they are all going down without a fight, unlike many in previous generations.
William Gladstone and Harold Wilson both regained the premiership after losing it. Others like Ted Heath and Margaret Beckett stayed on for years after their glory days of power.
Most of the MPs going now plan to leave politics altogether. They complain that the pressures of the job have become intolerable. Some talk of worries for their mental health and even post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).
Pay is not the main issue. The government has accepted IPSA’s recommendation of a 5.5% increase taking an MP’s salary to £91,346 a year.
Jacinda Ardern. Pic: PA
While it is true that wage inequalities have increased to the benefit of the very highest earners, MPs and ministers in the UK and elsewhere have more than maintained their differential above the average professional salary.
Some of those leaving now, perhaps with backgrounds in teaching or local government, say they are worried that they might not be able to earn as much. Some are announcing their intention to quit now hoping to be at the front of the queue for opportunities.
Being a minister in a failing government is not so attractive when it means an automatic six-month quarantine before taking up new employment.
Organised pile-ons and email campaigns
Mr Varadkar explained: “Politicians are human beings and we have our limitations.
“We give it everything until we can’t any more.”
He speaks for many of those calling it a day. They talk of the pressures of being on call 24/7. Thanks to the internet, constituents can contact them with less effort than ever and monitor their activities and apparent work rate. Organised pile-ons and email campaigns are a common hazard.
Far worse, a growing minority of the public regard MPs as fair game. At the extreme this has resulted in the recent murder of two MPs, Jo Cox and David Amess, and a number of other violent assaults.
Women MPs also have to deal with vile abuse and threats online every day. Some consider the male-dominated atmosphere at Westminster to be “toxic”.
Tony Blair was the first prime minister to have young children in Downing Street for a century. Since then Brown, Cameron, Johnson, Truss and Sunak have each taken families into Number 10.
Nicola Sturgeon
As the demand for younger political leaders grows, so do their difficulties bringing up children. Some of the women leaving office, including Ms Ardern, talk of the personal and private pressures. Blair was the most successful British politician of his generation but says he would be “really worried” if any of his four adult children wanted to go into politics.
Plenty of nutters and demagogues
Mainstream parties are now having trouble finding candidates who look like decent, long-term prospects. There are always plenty of nutters and demagogues looking for an opening but sensible men and women willing to serve their country with a career in parliament are in short supply.
As a result, both the Conservatives and Labour are having to pick young candidates with local links. A significant number of these potential MPs have some knowledge of the ropes thanks to family connections to politicians and others in “the Westminster Bubble”, including journalists. They are not necessarily good long-term bets.
Single people in their 20s and early 30s cannot know where their lives are heading. Those now leaving parliament after a few years presumably took a wrong turning when they became MPs. The electorate that has been paying to train them will not get the benefit of their expertise in future.
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Most ex-prime ministers still have something to offer in the public realm. But they choose to do it away from the crumbling palace of Westminster. Theresa May is the latest to say that she can better concentrate on what she cares about by leaving the Commons.
Few linger long once they have been elected. The average tenure of an MP is falling. The average age of MPs is around 50 compared to 57 in the US House of Representatives and 64 in the Senate. Admittedly the US has its unique problems of gerontocracy, but elsewhere in the English-speaking world it ought to be possible to get more use out of our mature politicians.
As things stand we are all caught in a vicious cycle. The quality of those seeking to govern is diminishing; that in turn breeds disrespect for politicians, which makes the job less appealing than ever.
As Leo Varadkar put it: “We give our all until we can’t anymore.”
Donald Trump has a soft spot for military spectacles and autocrats.
He will be looking on with envy as Vladimir Putin parades both in Moscow today, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping flying in to join Victory Day events in Red Square.
European allies of Ukraine will be watching nervously, wary of anything that could upturn the delicate quest for peace.
President Trump‘s patience with peddling his much vaunted “peace deal” has been wearing thin and allies had feared Ukraine could be punished for it.
That would have been grotesquely unfair, of course. Ukraine has bent over backwards to accommodate Mr Trump’s one-sided diplomacy that has so far seemed to favour the aggressor in this obscene war.
Pic: AP
True, the Trump proposal does not agree to Russian annexation of all the land already taken by force and stops short of ordering the complete demilitarisation of Ukraine, but otherwise the proposals are pretty much everything that Moscow has asked for.
The deal is being pushed by Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump’s golf partner turned chief negotiator, a man regarded by diplomats as out of his depth and lost in the rough when it comes to the arts of statecraft.
Like his president, Mr Witkoff has a history of doing business with Russian oligarchs, an apparently starry-eyed view of the Russian leader and has called Ukraine a “false country”.
Moment of truth approaching
Mr Witkoff and Mr Trump have so far given Mr Putin the benefit of the doubt, but a moment of truth is approaching. While Ukraine has agreed to a longer ceasefire in principle, Mr Putin will not.
Ukraine’s European allies feared that Mr Trump was about to despair of progress, blame Ukraine and take US military support with him.
Then came the minerals agreement between the US and Ukraine. The breakthrough gave the US president something to show for his efforts and assuaged his desire for some kind of deal. He seems to have moved on for now, at least, and approved the first $50m of arms sales to Ukraine.
Members of the Russian Air Force fly over Red Square during the rehearsal. Pic: AP
But these remain a tense few days ahead with plenty at stake.
Mr Putin’s self-declared three-day ceasefire raises the spectre paradoxically of escalation if either side breaks it.
The Russian lull is seen here in Kyiv as little more than a ploy.
If the Russian leader was serious about giving peace a chance, they say, he would have signed up to the permanent ceasefire being proposed by the Trump team.
Besides, Russia broke the last truce in Easter as soon as it had begun and used it to carry out surveillance and reinforcement operations says Kyiv. Why risk another pointless pause that is exploited by the invaders?
Escalation possible
If Russia plays the same games this time and Ukraine retaliates, there could be a significant escalation. Likewise, with any Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow during Victory Day.
Any major flare-up will not be looked on favourably by the US president if it upstages his first trip abroad this presidency, a three-day tour of the Middle East.
For now, his attention is not so much on the Ukraine conflict and he is no longer issuing threats to walk away and stop supporting the Ukrainians.
Russian servicemen march towards Red Square in the rehearsal. Pic: AP
Read more from Sky News:
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That will be a relief here in the Ukrainian capital. They would be unwise to do anything to reengage him, for now at least.
Their European allies, though, know American involvement in this war appears to be receding.
Can they fill the vacuum?
This week, they remember the sacrifices made to bring peace and security to their continent 80 years ago.
Can they find the political will and unity to do so again, even without America?
Astonishingly, given all we have been through, that is still an open question.
World
India will respond ‘in exactly the same light’ if Pakistan retaliates, high commissioner tells Sky News
India will respond to any escalation from Pakistan “proportionally and in exactly the same light”, the country’s high commissioner has told Sky News.
Weeks after 26 tourists were shot dead by gunmen in Indian-controlled Kashmir last month, India carried out missile strikes in Pakistan and Islamabad-administered parts of the disputed region.
On Wednesday, India said it hit nine “terrorist infrastructure” sites, while Pakistan said it was not involved in the April attack and the sites were not militant bases.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has since vowed that India will “now have to pay the price” for their “blatant mistake,” and skirmishes have also been reported along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
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Speaking to Sky’s The World with Yalda Hakim on Thursday, India’s high commissioner to the UK, Vikram Doraiswami, said “the original escalation is Pakistan’s sponsored terror groups’ attack on civilians”.
India strikes ‘reasonable,’ says high commissioner
He then insisted India’s strikes in Pakistan and Kashmir were “precise, targeted, reasonable and moderate,” adding: “It was focused principally and solely on terrorist infrastructure.
“We made it abundantly clear that the object of this exercise was clearly to avoid military escalation.
“A fact that was actually acknowledged – in a left-handed way of course – by the Pakistani side in terms of their own statements, which said the airspace hadn’t been violated.”
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India awaits Pakistan’s response
Pakistan chose ‘to escalate the matter’
The high commissioner also said about claims Pakistan shot down Indian aircraft with Chinese-made fighter jets: “If it satisfies Pakistan’s ego to say that they’ve done something, they could have used that as an off-ramp to move on.
“Clearly they’ve chosen not to, and they’ve chosen to escalate the matter.”
A boy collects papers from the debris of a damaged house in Gingal village. Pic: Reuters
And when asked about Pakistan’s threats of retaliation, Mr Doraiswami said: “We’re not looking for an escalation, but if Pakistan responds, as we have done, we will respond proportionally and in exactly the same light.”
He then referenced the border skirmishes, saying: “I do want to remind everybody: For the last 15 days, they’ve also opened artillery fire along the Line of Actual Control… That’s led to civilian casualties.”
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It comes after India said Pakistan attacked its military stations in the Kashmir region with drones and missiles on Thursday.
The country’s defence ministry said stations at Jammu, Pathankot and Udhampur were “targeted by Pakistani-origin” weapons, and added “the threats were swiftly neutralised”.
There is a long list of demands in the new pope’s in-tray, ranging from the position of women in the church to the ongoing fight against sexual abuse and restoring papal finances.
People both inside the Catholic Church and around the world will be watching how the new pontiff deals with them.
US Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost was elected as the new pope on Thursday after just two days of conclave.
The 69-year-old, who becomes the first American pope, will take the name Leo XIV.
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‘Evil will not prevail, we are all in the hands of God’, the new American Pope told the crowd.
On Friday, Pope Leo will lead his first holy mass as pontiff after already paying a surprise visit to see staff at his former residence.
Here, Sky News Europe correspondent Siobhan Robbins takes an in-depth look at the challenges facing the new pontiff.
Sexual abuse
Many Catholic insiders credit Pope Francis with going further than any of his predecessors to address sexual abuse.
He gathered bishops together for a conference on the issue in 2019 and that led to a change that allows cooperating with civil courts if needed during abuse cases.
But it didn’t go as far as forcing the disclosure of all information gathered in relation to child abuse.
Any abuse allegations must now be referred to church leaders, but reformers stopped short of decreeing that such cases should also be automatically referred to the police.
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Clerical abuse victim says church still has ‘so much to do’
While many abuse victims agree they saw progress under Pope Francis, who spent a lot of time listening to their accounts, they say reforms didn’t go far enough.
The next pope will be under pressure to take strong action on the issue.
Newly-elected Pope Leo XIV appears on the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican. Pic: Reuters
Women
Pope Francis also did more to promote women in the Vatican than any other pontiff.
Two years ago, he allowed women to vote in a significant meeting of bishops.
While he was clear he wanted women to have more opportunities, he resisted the idea that they needed to be part of the church hierarchy and didn’t change the rules on women being ordained.
A woman kneels at St. Peter’s Square, on the first day of the conclave to elect the new pope. Pic: Reuters
His successor will need to decide if they push this agenda forward or rein it back in.
It’s a pressing concern as women do a huge amount of the work in schools and hospitals, but many are frustrated about being treated as second-class citizens. 10,000 nuns a year have left in the decade from 2012 to 2022, according to Vatican figures.
Inclusion
“Who am I to judge?” Pope Francis famously said when asked about a gay monsignor in 2013.
His supporters say he sought to make the church more open, including allowing blessings for same sex couples but while critics argue he didn’t go far enough, some conservatives were outraged.
A gay couple kiss at a Catholic protest against the legalisation of gay marriage in Mexico. File pic: Reuters
African bishops collectively rejected blessings for same sex couples, saying “it would cause confusion and would be in direct contradiction to the cultural ethos of African communities”.
How welcome LGBTQ+ people feel in the church will depend partly on decisions made by the pontiff.
Conversely, the Pope must also bring together disparate groups within the Catholic faith.
Many are demanding a leader who can unite the various factions and bring stability in an increasingly unstable world.
The global south
While the Catholic church is losing members in its traditional base of Europe, it’s growing rapidly in the global south.
The area has become the new centre of gravity for Catholicism with huge followings in countries like Brazil, Mexico and the Philippines.
Pope Francis tried to expand representation by appointing more cardinals from different areas of the world, and the new Pope will be expected to continue this.
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Behind the scenes at the conclave
Finance
The Vatican is facing a serious financial crisis.
The budget deficit has tripled since Pope Francis’s election and the pension fund has a shortfall of up to €2bn (£1.7bn).
These money worries, which were compounded by COVID-19 and long-standing bureaucratic challenges, represent a major concern for the next pope.
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