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Chocolate is among the products placing upwards pressure on grocery inflation in the run-up to Easter, according to closely-watched supermarket data.

Kantar Worldpanel, which tracks pricing and market share, reported a further slowing in the pace of price growth across the sector over the four weeks to 17 March.

It said the annual rate for grocery inflation eased to 4.5% – down from the 5.3% figure recorded the previous month.

The report credited price matching guarantees across the industry, as shoppers continue to seek out value amid the wider cost of living crisis that is continuing to damage household spending power despite wage growth firmly outstripping the rate of inflation.

Manufacturers of some goods are enduring a second wave of price pressures as the effects of Russia’s war in Ukraine ease for many others.

Tough harvests have also pushed up the cost of key commodities such as cocoa and sugar.

Kantar reported that prices were rising fastest in markets such as sugar confectionery and chocolate confectionery.

They were falling fastest in butter, milk and toilet tissues, it found.

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Bank of England sees progress in inflation battle

A separate study last week pointed to rises of up to 50% for some Easter eggs compared to the previous season.

However, Kantar reported that the increases did not appear to have put people off.

“Take-home grocery sales rose by 4.6% over the four weeks to 17 March, with an early Easter boosting sales of seasonal treats in the first three months of 2024 by £88m compared with the same period last year.

The company’s head of retail and consumer insight, Fraser McKevitt, said: “With Easter on the horizon, consumers have been stocking up on classic seasonal treats, with a quarter of people picking up four or more items when buying chocolate eggs.

“This rises to 29% for shoppers aged over 65, suggesting that many grandparents are planning to indulge their families this weekend.

“People in Wales and the north of England are among the biggest spenders, shelling out £14.18 and £13.84 on Easter eggs on average respectively in the past three months.”

The outlook for chocolate costs looks no brighter, with data on Monday showing fresh record highs for cocoa.

Dry weather in west Africa has been blamed for costs more than doubling in the year to date.

Cocoa pods are displayed at a farm in Piedra de Plata, Ecuador. The harvested pods are opened with a tool such as a machete to expose the beans inside
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Cocoa, which cost just over $4,000 per ton in January, sailed past $9,300 on Monday. Pic: Reuters

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Already big manufacturers like Cadbury owner Mondelez have warned that they may have to raise prices again as a consequence.

“The upswing in cocoa prices, to breach $9,300 per ton, is linked to concerns about tight supplies in west Africa, with some plants reducing activity due to financing issues.

“Shipments were down from Ivory Coast by almost a third between October and March compared to the same period last year. Sugar prices have dipped back from January highs but remain hovering near levels not seen since 2017.

“The surge in the cost of raw materials will prompt a fresh rethink of strategy among manufacturers. Bars have already been hit by shrinkflation and shoppers won’t be impressed by another Willy Wonka-style disappearing act.”

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£4.7bn spent on EU border checks but some costs ‘unnecessary’ and timetable unclear, says new National Audit Office report

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£4.7bn spent on EU border checks but some costs 'unnecessary' and timetable unclear, says new National Audit Office report

Traders are facing increased costs and more paperwork due to Brexit border controls, according to a new report from the independent public spending watchdog.

The government is estimated to have spent £4.7bn so far but some of that spending was not necessary, the National Audit Office (NAO) has said.

Despite the UK voting to leave the European Union in 2016 – and officially exiting in 2020 – many border control checks are yet to be implemented.

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It is “not clear” when the checks will be fully in place, said Parliament’s spending authority in its trade border report, and there is no timetable for government to achieve its “world’s most effective border” target.

This lack of certainty, as well as “repeated delays” in bringing in import controls, resulted in spending on infrastructure and staff that was “ultimately not needed”, according to the NAO.

Those delays and the associated uncertainty have also impacted businesses by adding extra cost and admin burdens, the watchdog added.

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Late policy announcements have reduced the ability of businesses and ports to prepare for changes, the report said.

After five delays, the first phase of border barriers – requiring additional certification – came into force on 31 January this year, with a second phase having started on 30 April when physical checks were introduced at ports.

A third phase, requiring safety and security declarations, is scheduled for 31 October. These phases are partial import controls.

‘Increased biosecurity risk’

The UK is at “increased biosecurity risk” due to the phased implementation approach and having lost access to EU surveillance and alert systems after Brexit, the NAO said.

There is reduced awareness of “impending dangers”, such as African Swine Fever, it added.

Customs declaration work borne by businesses had been estimated to cost organisations a collective £7.5bn, according to HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) figures in 2019, which the NAO notes has not been updated despite 39m customs declarations being made on goods moving between Britain and the EU in 2022.

The government’s £4.7bn figure is an estimate of post-Brexit border management and does not factor in the full, eventual cost.

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Strategy ‘lacks clear timetable’

It has not specified when a full regime will be in place but said it intends to introduce most of the remaining import controls during 2024.

The NAO said the 2025 UK border strategy “lacks a clear timetable” and cross-government delivery plan, with individual departments leading and implementing different parts.

It added that annual reports on progress will not be published until 2025 “at the earliest”, despite the government saying in its border strategy in 2020 that it would publish yearly progress reports.

The NAO recommended full border controls operate at all ports “as soon as possible”.

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Online fashion giant Shein approaches Sajid Javid ahead of blockbuster IPO

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Online fashion giant Shein approaches Sajid Javid ahead of blockbuster IPO

Sajid Javid, the former chancellor of the exchequer, has been approached about taking a role at Shein, the online fashion giant which is progressing plans for London’s biggest stock market float for years.

Sky News has learnt that Mr Javid is among a number of senior City figures who have held talks with Donald Tang, Shein’s executive chairman, in recent weeks.

City sources said that if the appointment of Mr Javid proceeded, it could see him either join Shein’s board or become an adviser to the Chinese-founded company.

They added that Baroness Fairhead, the former BBC Trust chair, was also on a list of candidates drawn up by headhunters advising Shein.

One person close to the company said the identities of those being approached reflected both the seriousness with which Shein was taking the issue of corporate governance and the extent of its focus on a London listing.

Since leaving the government, Mr Javid has taken a role with Centricus, an investment firm which tried unsuccessfully to structure an offer for Chelsea Football Club in 2022.

A spokesman for him, who had insisted that Mr Javid would stand for re-election in his Bromsgrove seat a week before publicly announcing the opposite, did not respond to a request for comment from Sky News.

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In recent weeks, several reports have repeated Sky News’ revelation that Shein has turned its attention to a London flotation amid difficulties in securing approval from US regulators.

An initial public offering would be likely to value Shein at around £50bn or more.

Paris is also understood to have been considered by the company as a possible listing venue.

Earlier this year, Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, held talks with Donald Tang, Shein’s executive chairman, to persuade the company to commit to what would be one of London’s biggest-ever corporate flotations.

The meeting between Mr Hunt and Mr Tang underlined the importance that British officials are attaching to the idea of trumping the US in an effort to land the Shein IPO.

If it proceeded, Shein could become the London Stock Exchange’s second-largest IPO in history, behind the 2011 stock market debut of Glencore International, the commodities trading and mining group.

Mr Tang has also met executives from the LSE as well as more junior ministers as part of its IPO preparations.

Shein filed documents for a New York listing last year, but has grown concerned that its application may be rejected by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are advising on the deal.

Based in Singapore, Shein has become one of the world’s largest online fashion retailers, although its growth has not been untroubled amid mounting concerns about labour standards.

Last year, Sky News revealed that Shein was in talks to buy the British fashion brand Missguided from Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group.

While the transaction itself was worth only a modest sum, retail analysts said that it could pave the way for Shein to build a more meaningful profile in the UK, potentially through a broader collaboration with Frasers.

Founded in China in 2012, Shein was valued at over $100bn last year, at which point it was worth more than H&M and Zara’s parent company, Inditex, combined.

The company’s valuation was slashed to $66bn as part of a share sale last year.

Shein operates in more than 150 countries.

It has also struck an agreement with SPARC Group, a joint venture between the Ted Baker-owner ABG and Simon Property Group, a US shopping mall operator.

Under that deal, SPARC’s Forever 21 fashion brand gained distribution on the Shein platform, which boasts 150m users globally.

Shein acquired a one-third stake in SPARC Group, while SPARC Group also took an undisclosed minority interest in Shein.

The LSE’s efforts to court Shein come during a challenging period for the City as a listing venue for large multinationals, with ARM Holdings, the UK-based chip designer, opting to float in New York rather than London.

Other companies, such as the gambling operator Flutter Entertainment and drug company Indivior, are planning to shift their primary listings to the US, citing higher valuations and more liquid markets.

In recent weeks, however, London has landed the prospective IPOs of Raspberry Pi, the personal computer maker, and AOTI, a medical technology provider.

Mr Hunt last week hosted a summit at Dorneywood attended by technology companies looking at listing in the UK.

Shein declined to comment.

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Record profits at Ryanair after costs rise – but ticket price cuts could be on the way

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Record profits at Ryanair after costs rise - but ticket price cuts could be on the way

Ryanair has reported another year of record profits and passenger numbers.

The average fare at the airline, which is Europe’s largest by passenger numbers, was 21% more expensive than 12 months earlier, its annual results showed.

But the company suggested a cut in ticket prices could be on the way after this summer when prices will either be the same or more expensive than last year.

Annual profits reached €1.92bn (£1.64bn), surpassing the previous record of €1.45bn (£1.26bn) made in the year ending March 2018.

Passenger numbers also outpaced previous all-time highs and are now well above pre-pandemic numbers at 184 million – a rise of 23% on the pre-COVID year of 2019.

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Ticket prices

Those passengers paid fares costing an average of 21% more than the year up to March 2023 but Ryanair’s chief executive Michael O’Leary said if the company has to cut fares to have planes 94% full next April, May and June “then so be it”.

While demand is “strong” for summer flights and its summer schedule will operate over 200 new routes, the low-cost carrier said it remained “cautiously optimistic that peak summer 2024 fares will be flat to modestly ahead of last summer”.

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Boeing headwinds

The passenger increase has come despite Boeing‘s delays in delivering new planes to the airline.

Ryanair had staked a large part of its financial success on expansion through 300 new 737 MAX 10 aircraft.

But the plane manufacturer has been beset by delays amid regulatory and media scrutiny of safety at its manufacturing sites after a door blew off an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 9 jet.

There’s a risk those delays “could slip further”, Mr O’Leary said.

But Ryanair said it would receive “modest compensation” from Boeing for the delays.

The no-frills carrier also said its fuel bill rose 32% to €5.14bn (£4.4bn).

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