After the S&P 500s 26% return last year and this years strong start, many investors are worried understandably that this bull run is getting ahead of itself.
They shouldnt. The strange-but-true fact is that, statistically speaking, average returns — which have amounted to about 10% a year over nearly a century of trading — arent normal in the stock market for any given year. A second, surprisingly pleasant fact is that so-called “extreme” returns are far closer to what we’d call normal — and they’re mostly on the positive side.
Most folks think of volatility as negativity. We all recognize the NYSEs famously frazzled-looking floor trader, Peter Tuchman, peering up at the Big Board in various states of alarm, with the effect enhanced by his Einstein-style shock of white hair.
Crucially, that image however familiar, convincing and relatable it may be is misleading. Volatility is just movement, whether it’s up or down.
Crunching the numbers, one finds that stocks rise far more often than they fall. Forget the day-to-day or month-to month noise. Since accurate data start in 1925, the S&P 500 gained in fully 73% of rolling 12-month periods nearly three-quarters of them! Stretched to rolling five-year periods that becomes 88%. Across 10-year periods, its a staggering 94.5%.
Meanwhile, throughout that entire, 98-year stretch, there has never been a rolling 20-year period of negative returns. Never.
To work this into your bones a little further, consider that since 1925, US stocks gained more than 20% in 37 of 98 calendar years the most frequent result! Next most frequent? Zero to 20% gains, totaling 35 times. Down between 0% and -20% followed, at 20 years.
Down big was the real rarity, occurring just six times. So, markets posted huge gains six times as often as horrendous declines.
More simply: Stocks beat their 10% long-term average in 58 calendar years. They fell to any degree less than half as often, 26 times. So historically, you are more than twice as likely to celebrate above-average, even huge, years than encounter down years.
Looking back at the past five years, many folks again, understandably fixate on 2022s negativity, calling that volatile. OK! But what of all the great volatility during 2019s 31.5% boom? Or 2021s 28.7%? And, of course, 2023. All four years are extremes.
Even 2020, starting dreadfully amid COVIDs lockdown-driven hyper-fast bear market, finished up 18.4%. I hesitate labeling anything in 2020 normal. But ironically, its 18% return is the closest to average among those years.
The upshot? Big returns simply arent the rarity that too far, too fast bears claim. In bull markets, they are more normal than not. Why? The roughly 10% long-term annual average includes bear markets. Strip out the bears and youll find that during the 14 S&P 500 bull markets before this one, stocks annualized 23%.
Mind you, Im not necessarily suggesting 2024 returns exceeding 20%. But it wouldnt shock me and it shouldnt shock you. The fact is, gains of 20% and more arent abnormal at all.
As for acrophobia, I cant disagree with a fear of hot-air balloons, mountain climbing, or a job washing windows at the Empire State Building but try to get over it when it comes to investing.
Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a four-time New York Times bestselling author, and regular columnist in 21 countries globally.
Social media accounts expressing support for a Pakistan-based terror group linked to al Qaeda appear to have posted recent videos from a Pakistan mosque targeted by Indian airstrikes.
Sky News has found videos posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google that appear to be filmed at the Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke. The captions and usernames contain expressions of support for the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and a group called ‘313’.
Sky News has found and geolocated multiple videos that appear to be filmed in the area where the captions include either or both ‘313’ and LeT.
Some of the videos show men in the streets with guns. Another post captioned a video of children doing martial arts training inside the targeted mosque, “we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers”.
Image: The caption of the video reads ‘we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers’. It uses the hashtag ‘313’.
The caption uses the hashtag #جہاد313, which translates to ‘313’ jihad.
‘313’ appears to refer to the 313 Brigade, a proscribed terror organisation in Pakistan.
In a TikTok video posted to the Google page for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, a man can be seen walking along the street with a gun.
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The account that posted that video wrote in their description, “Lashkar Taiba, Mujahid Force, ‘313’ and Markaz Taiba Muridke”, self-proclaiming their support for the groups.
Image: This screenshot from the Google user labels Lashkar-e-Taiba and ‘313’ and includes the location name Muridke
Gunmen opened fire on tourists, killing 26 people and injuring dozens in a popular holiday spot near Pahalgam, Kashmir, on 22 April.
LeT were accused by India of involvement in the Pahalgam attack through their proxy the Resistance Front, which claimed responsibility for the attack.
LeT, which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN Security Council and the UK, focuses on fighting Indian control in Kashmir and is based in the Punjab region of Pakistan.
Pakistan denies allegations of terror camps operating in the country. This region has been in the control of the Punjabi government since 2010. The Punjab government condemned the Indian strikes, and declared a state of emergency across Punjab.
Muskan Sangwan, senior intelligence analyst at TRAC, a terrorism research and analysis consortium, told Sky News: “Brigade 313 is al Qaeda in Pakistan. It’s an umbrella organisation for members of several groups like Taliban, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Haqqat ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Jaish-e Muhammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Jundullah.”
Ms Sangwan explained that ‘313’ refers to the number of companions said to have fought with the Prophet Mohammed in the Battle of Badr.
TRAC have seen a recent uptick in TikTok videos and other social media posts that refer to ‘313’.
Many of the accounts are linked to each other.
Ms Sangwan said: “They [the TikTok users] mostly use ‘313’ as a hashtag… trying to push that hashtag to as many people it can reach on social media.”
Sky News sought to verify the location by comparing before and after videos from the strike location, and using the video released by the Indian army conducting the strike.
One video showing damage at the strike location was posted by a user with 313 in their TikTok username.
Image: The TikTok account that posted video footage of the destruction in Muridke has 313 in the username
Below is satellite imagery that shows the destruction of the site.
Image: Satellite imagery shows Markaz Taiba Mosque after the strike on 7 May. Credit: Maxar
In one TikTok, the video is captioned “bring your arms and ammunition and go to war”. The text on the screen of the TikTok is ‘313’ and he is carrying a gun.
The group are comfortable with having an online presence. On the Google tag for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, men pose for a group photo. Almost all the people in the photo have used ‘313’ on TikTok.
Ms Sangwan explained: “With these people from Muridke, pushing this propaganda on social media would generate a lot of significance in terms of recruitment and in terms of gaining support from local people and from other people.”
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3:29
Anger in Pakistan after India strikes
India says it struck Markaz Taiba, a site in Muridke about 15 miles (25km) from the border, which has long been claimed to be a terrorist training site associated with LeT.
MEMRI, a US-based research group that monitors terrorist threats, told Sky News: “It has been known for decades that Lashkar-e-Taiba has its headquarters in Muridke.”
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Sky News contacted the Pakistan Ministry of Defence for comment. Khawaja Asif, Pakistan’s defence minister, told Sky News: “This appears to be a random video with background music added later – consistent with how TikTok trends often function. If this is to be considered credible evidence, we could produce millions of similar clips ourselves.”
Mr Asif also said that any suggestion that the mosque was used as a base by terrorists was a “completely false, social media made up hoax”.
On 7 May, after the strikes in Pakistan, the Indian subcontinent branch of al Qaeda issued a statement condemning India’s actions and encouraging its supporters to wage jihad against India.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Bodycam footage has captured the arrest of a US city mayor during a protest at a federal immigration detention centre.
Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, who was released from custody hours after he was detained on Friday, has denied trespassing during a confrontation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.
He was at the facility, which opened in the New Jersey city last week, with three members of Congress and witnesses said his arrest came after he tried to join them in entering the centre.
Image: Ras Baraka (centre) has been released from custody. Pic: Reuters
In bodycam footage released by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), an agent can be heard telling him: “Listen, congressmen are different, congresswomen are different.
“Mr Mayor, anyone that is not a congresswoman or man, step back… It’s your last warning. You will be placed under arrest.”
A heated argument broke out after Mr Baraka’s entry was blocked and he left the secure area to rejoin protesters on the other side of the gate.
Minutes later, several ICE agents, some wearing face coverings, surrounded him and others on the public side.
Mr Baraka was dragged back through the gate in handcuffs, as protesters shouted: “Shame.”
Image: Protesters shout ‘let him out’ after mayor’s arrest. Pic: AP
Alina Habba, interim US attorney for New Jersey, said on X that Mr Baraka trespassed at the detention facility, which is run by private prison operator Geo Group, adding he had “chosen to disregard the law”.
The DHS said in a statement that the politicians had not asked for a tour of the Delaney Hall centre, which the agency said it would have facilitated.
The department said that as a bus carrying detainees was entering in the afternoon “a group of protestors, including two members of the US House of Representatives, stormed the gate and broke into the detention facility”.
After his release on Friday night, the mayor told waiting supporters: “The reality is this: I didn’t do anything wrong.”
Mr Baraka, a Democrat running to succeed term-limited Governor Phil Murphy, has embraced the fight with Donald Trump‘s administration over illegal immigration.
He has been a vocal critic against the construction and opening of the 1,000-bed detention centre, arguing that it should not be allowed to open because of building permit issues.
DHS said in its statement that the facility has the proper permits and inspections have been cleared.
A Nobel Prize-winning economist has told Sky News the recently announced UK-US trade deal “isn’t worth the paper it’s written on”.
Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump announced the “first-of-a-kind” agreement with a live, televised phone call earlier this week – and the British prime minister hailed the deal as one that will save thousands of jobs in the UK.
“Any agreement with Trump isn’t worth the paper it’s written on,” he said, pointing out the president signed deals with Canada and Mexico during his first term – only to slap them with hiked tariffs within days of returning to the White House this year.
“I would view it as playing into Trump’s strategy,” he said.
“His strategy is divide and conquer, go after the weakest countries, and sort of put the stronger countries in the back.”
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2:45
How good is the UK-US deal?
The scramble to secure a UK-US trade deal was sparked by Mr Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement last month, which saw the president hike import tariffs for multiple countries and subsequently send global markets crashing.
China initially faced tariffs of 34% and when Beijing hit the US with retaliatory rates, a trade war quickly ensued.
The US and China now impose tariffs of above 100% on each other, but representatives from the two countries have this weekend met for high-stakes negotiations.
Image: Donald Trump, with US vice president JD Vance and Britain’s ambassador to the US Peter Mandelson, announcing the deal. Pic: AP
Image: Sir Keir Starmer dialled in for the deal announcement. Pic: AP
With its response to Mr Trump, Beijing “made it very clear that the US is very dependent on China in so many ways,” Mr Stiglitz said.
“So they’re beginning now to negotiate, but from a position of strength.”
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Asked if he thinks the UK should have focused on its relationship with the EU instead of the US, Mr Stiglitz said: “Very much so.
“My view is that if you had worked with the EU to get a good deal, you could have done better than what you’ve done.
“If it turns out, in the end, when you work it all out, Trump is unhappy, he’ll run. If he’s unhappy, I pray for you.”
Among the terms in the UK-US trade deal are reduced tariffs on British car and steel exports to the US, while the UK has agreed to remove a tariff on ethanol, used to produce beer.
The agreement also opens a new agricultural exchange, with US farmers being given access to the UK for the first time – though UK food standards on imports have not been weakened.