NHL playoff watch: Who will win the battle for the Central Division crown?
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Tim Kavanagh, ESPN.com
The race for the regular-season division titles is down to two teams in the Atlantic and Metro, and perhaps already won by the Vancouver Canucks in the Pacific. But the Central is our focus today, with two teams tied in standings points at the top and another just four behind.
Who will ultimately earn the division’s No. 1 seed?
The Colorado Avalanche are in the top spot with 97 points through 71 games, and 38 regulation wins. In second are the Dallas Stars, with 97 points through 72 games and 33 regulation wins. The Winnipeg Jets are in third with 93 points in 71 games and 39 regulation wins. Off in the distance is our long shot in the field, the Nashville Predators, who sit at 88 points in 71 games, with 35 regulation wins.
Colorado’s schedule down the stretch is a tough one. After Tuesday night’s game against the lottery-bound Montreal Canadiens (9 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+), seven of its remaining 10 contests are against teams currently in playoff position, and two of the other three are against the Minnesota Wild, who are on the outskirts of the wild-card race but are still playing hard. The Avs are projected for 111.2 points and have a 58.8% chance of taking the division, per Stathletes.
The Stars also get a draft lottery team for their opponent on Tuesday night, as they’ll skate against the San Jose Sharks (10:30 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+). Dallas is projected to reach 110.4 standings points and has been given a 35.3% chance of winning the Central. Of their remaining nine games beyond Tuesday, just four are against current playoff teams.
Although the Jets are behind the other two clubs in standings points, their regulation wins total could come in handy if they can gain ground. After a rough swing out east, they are back home Tuesday to host the Edmonton Oilers (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+). After that game, six of their final 10 games are against teams currently in a postseason spot, including one apiece against Dallas and Colorado on Apr. 11 and 13. Stathletes projects the Jets for 106.1 points and gives them a 5.8% chance of winning the division title.
And now, the hottest team in the NHL. The Predators haven’t lost a game in regulation since Feb. 15, a span of 17 straight contests with a point. That’s a trend that can surely aid a team in its quest for a strong postseason slot, and Nashville will be going for 18 straight games with at least one point on Tuesday night against the Vegas Golden Knights (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+). The Preds have been beating all manner of teams during the streak, but their remaining schedule happens to be a bit lighter than those of the teams ahead of them; just three of their final 10 contests are against current playoff teams. Nevertheless, it would be quite an unlikely outcome for Nashville to win the Central title: Stathletes projects the Preds finishing with 101.9 points and a 0.1% chance of finishing first in the division.
As we traverse the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2024 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Clinching scenarios
Tuesday’s schedule
Monday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Tampa Bay Lightning
A2 Boston Bruins vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC2 Washington Capitals
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 Philadelphia Flyers
Western Conference
C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Winnipeg Jets
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC2 Vegas Golden Knights
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Clinching scenarios
1. The New York Rangers will clinch a playoff berth if they defeat the Philadelphia Flyers in any fashion. They also clinch if they get one point against the Flyers and the Detroit Red Wings lose to the Washington Capitals in any fashion or if the Red Wings lose to the Capitals in regulation (regardless of the Rangers’ result).
2. The Florida Panthers will clinch a playoff berth if they defeat the Boston Bruins in any fashion, and any of the following occurs:
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The Red Wings lose to the Capitals in any fashion
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The Flyers lose to the Rangers in regulation
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The Flyers lose to the Rangers in overtime or shootout AND the Capitals lose to the Red Wings in regulation
Florida can also clinch if it gets one point against Boston and Detroit loses to Washington in regulation.
3. The Carolina Hurricanes will clinch a playoff berth if they defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins in any fashion, and any of the following occurs:
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The Red Wings lose to the Capitals in any fashion
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The Flyers lose to the Rangers in regulation
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The Flyers lose to the Rangers in overtime or shootout AND the Capitals lose to the Red Wings in regulation
Carolina can also clinch if it gets one point against Pittsburgh and Detroit loses to Washington in regulation.
4. The Bruins will clinch a playoff berth if they defeat the Panthers in any fashion AND the Red Wings lose to the Capitals in regulation.
Tuesday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).
Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers, 7 p.m.
Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers, 7 p.m.
Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7 p.m.
Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals, 7 p.m.
New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators, 8 p.m.
Edmonton Oilers at Winnipeg Jets, 8 p.m.
Calgary Flames at Chicago Blackhawks 8:30 p.m.
Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche, 9 p.m.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Arizona Coyotes, 10 p.m.
Anaheim Ducks at Seattle Kraken, 10 p.m.
Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m.
Monday’s scoreboard
Vegas Golden Knights 2, St. Louis Blues 1 (OT)
Los Angeles Kings 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. BOS (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 111
Next game: @ FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 12
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. NJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. BOS (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 98.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 90
Next game: @ WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 25.0%
Tragic number: 21
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. OTT (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 1.9%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 75
Next game: @ BUF (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 9
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 75
Next game: @ COL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 9
Metropolitan Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 113
Next game: vs. PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 111
Next game: @ PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 10
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ NYR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 85.1%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 12
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 66.7%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 87
Next game: @ FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 13.3%
Tragic number: 18
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 84
Next game: @ TOR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 8.7%
Tragic number: 15
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. CAR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.5%
Tragic number: 15
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 67
Next game: @ ARI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: E
Central Division
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 111
Next game: @ SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 11
Points pace: 107
Next game: vs. EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 102
Next game: vs. VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 91
Next game: vs. CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 4.3%
Tragic number: 15
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 89
Next game: vs. SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 1.7%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 73
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 1
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 52
Next game: vs. CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Pacific Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 11
Points pace: 101
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 11
Points pace: 98
Next game: @ NSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 95.0%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 10
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 81
Next game: vs. ANA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 8
Points: 52
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 60
Next game: @ SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 40
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 47
Next game: vs. DAL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
p — clinched Presidents’ Trophy
y — clinched division
x — clinched playoff berth
e — eliminated from playoff contention
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Macklin Celebrini, a freshman at Boston University.
Points: 40
Regulation wins: 12
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 52
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 16
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 30
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28
* The Penguins’ first-round pick was traded to the Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. However, it is top-10 protected.
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Andrea Adelson
Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M remained the top three teams in the latest College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday, while Alabama dropped six spots to No. 10 after its loss to Oklahoma.
The Crimson Tide are now behind No. 9 Notre Dame, even though they have more top-25 victories (four) than the Irish (one). Georgia, which Alabama beat in September, moved up to No. 4, while Texas Tech moved up to No. 5, Ole Miss to No. 6, Oregon to No. 7 and Oklahoma up three spots to No. 8 after its 23-21 win in Tuscaloosa.
BYU is ranked No. 11, followed by Utah at No. 12, Miami at No. 13, Vanderbilt at No. 14 and USC at No. 15. The Hurricanes jumped two spots after a 41-7 win over NC State, but they are four spots behind Notre Dame — a big point of contention among those at Miami and in the ACC. The two teams have the same 8-2 record, but Miami beat Notre Dame 27-24 to open the season.
Earlier this week, Miami coach Mario Cristobal was asked how head-to-head games should be viewed in CFP résumé comparisons and he said, “The No. 1 criteria is always head-to-head. It’s why we play the game, right? That always has been and always will be the No. 1 factor.”
The big difference between them is the losses: Notre Dame lost close games to two ranked teams (Miami and Texas A&M), and Miami lost to two unranked teams (Louisville, SMU).
Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yurachek, who took over as the new selection committee chair following the resignation of Mack Rhoades, said that to this point, “we really haven’t compared those teams,” referring to Miami and Notre Dame. That said, if both teams were to end up in a comparable tier, then “head-to-head will be a significant data point,” according to Yurachek.
“They haven’t been in similar comparative pools to date,” Yurachek said. “But Miami is creeping up in that range where they will be compared to Notre Dame if something happens above them.”
Texas, meanwhile, saw its at-large hopes take a hit. The Longhorns tumbled seven spots to No. 17 after a 35-10 loss to Georgia dropped them to 7-3, moving behind No. 16 Georgia Tech. Michigan is No. 18, Virginia is No. 19 and Tennessee moved up three spots to No. 20.
Illinois, Missouri, Houston, Tulane and Arizona State round out the top 25.
The five highest-ranked conference champions will make the 12-team field, but there is a tweak to the format this year, as the committee is using a straight seeding model. The top four teams in the final ranking, regardless of conference championship, will receive a first-round bye.
If the playoffs were held today, these would be the first-round matchups: Tulane at Texas Tech; Miami at Ole Miss; Alabama at Oregon; Notre Dame at Oklahoma. While Miami is slotted in as the highest-ranked ACC team in the current rankings, the Hurricanes have long odds to win the conference title.
If Georgia Tech beats Pitt on Saturday, and Virginia beats Virginia Tech next week, those two teams would play for the ACC championship. The winner would earn the automatic berth as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
For Miami to advance to the ACC title game, the Hurricanes need to win out; have Virginia, Georgia Tech and SMU lose their remaining games; and have Duke lose one of its final two games. ESPN FPI currently gives Georgia Tech a 35.3% chance to win the ACC and Virginia a 32.7% chance.
The SEC led the way once again Tuesday with nine ranked teams, while the Big Ten has six, the Big 12 has five with the additions of Houston and Arizona State, and the ACC has three after Pitt dropped out following its 37-15 loss to Notre Dame. Tulane replaced USF as the top-ranked Group of 5 representative.
Even though Alabama dropped to No. 10, the Crimson Tide still have favorable odds to make the SEC championship game, which would all but guarantee a spot in the CFP no matter the result. According to ESPN Research, Alabama has a 71% chance to make it to Atlanta with only one SEC game remaining, at Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
Georgia is done with SEC play but would lose a tiebreaker to Alabama. If Texas A&M wins at Texas next weekend, the Aggies would clinch a spot in Atlanta.
In the Big Ten, Ohio State and Indiana are in good shape to make it into the CFP. There is a crucial conference game this weekend that will have major implications for the Big Ten and an at-large berth: No. 15 USC travels to play No. 7 Oregon.
In the Big 12, Texas Tech and BYU are the only two teams with one conference loss, so they would play for a conference title if they win out.
The final CFP rankings will be announced Dec. 7, the day after the conference championships. The four first-round games will be played at the home campuses of the higher-seeded teams on Dec. 19 and 20. The four quarterfinal games will be played at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl (Dec. 31), the Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 1), the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (Jan. 1) and the Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1).
The two semifinal games will take place at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl and the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on Jan. 8 and 9, respectively.
The CFP National Championship game is Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
WASHINGTON — Alex Ovechkin scored his 903rd career NHL goal as the Washington Capitals beat the Los Angeles Kings 2-1 on Monday night.
Ovechkin also passed Gordie Howe for the most regular-season goals scored at a single venue in NHL history with his 442nd goal at Capital One Arena.
Matt Roy also scored for the Capitals, who ended a two-game losing skid to gain some traction in the standings.
Anze Kopitar scored for lone goal for the Kings, who had won four straight. It was just their second regulation road loss of the season.
Washington, which has been struggling to finish at 5-on-5, opened the scoring early, as Roy got to the front of the net and tipped Aliaksei Protas‘ point shot past Darcy Kuemper. It was Roy’s first goal in 25 games, dating to last season.
In the second period, Ovechkin crashed the crease and got to the front of the net before burying a behind-the-net feed from Connor McMichael. Ovechkin now has goals in back-to-back games and three of his past four.
Kopitar pulled Los Angeles to within one with his third goal of the season with 6:33 left in the second. He tapped in a backdoor feed from Corey Perry on a power play. Washington has now given up a power-play goal in three straight games and five of the past six.
Despite a rally, the Kings couldn’t beat Charlie Lindgren, who stopped 30 of 31 shots for his second win of the season after losing his previous four starts.
Kuemper stopped 23 of 25 in the defeat.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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