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No wonder the Labour Party is desperate for a general election now and bitterly disappointed that Rishi Sunak has “bottled it”, in Keir Starmer’s words, and is sticking to his plan not to hold it until the autumn at the earliest.

Sir John Curtice, the UK polling guru, has gone on the record that there is “a 99% chance of Labour forming the next administration”.

What could possibly go wrong for Labour between now and the verdict of the voters?

Curtice’s one-in-a-hundred chance of falling short is comforting for Sir Keir Starmer, but nobody around him is treating victory as a done deal.

No one has slipped up in the way Cherie Blair did in the run-up to the 1997 election when she chatted to ITN’s political editor about “when” not “if” the family would be in Downing Street.

Party workers of all kinds, including the shadow cabinet, regional organisers, special advisers and press officers are being summoned to HQ for “no complacency” pep talks.

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Sir Keir’s worries are dwarfed by the problems facing the Tories. Pic: Reuters

Trump’s 2016 win is a warning against complacency

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At the start of the year, Starmer’s campaign manager Morgan McSweeney even produced a slide pack on the theme “polls do not predict the future”.

It listed recent examples from Australia, Germany and Norway, among others, where a party’s sustained lead in opinion polls did not deliver on the day. Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 being Exhibit A.

The country is three months further on from then and three months closer to the election.

Labour has sustained its remarkable lead of around 18 points for another three months, a gap that has been that wide for two years since Boris Johnson hit the skids.

And any local difficulties for Starmer are dwarfed by continuing troubles for the Tories.

Even as he tries to point to slightly improving economic circumstances, Rishi Sunak has been beset by further resignations.

Nevertheless, the Labour leadership is braced for a “narrowing in the polls”.

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Some believe the PM will hold the election on his two-year anniversary. Pic: Reuters

The local elections in England and Wales on 2 May will be a big test of “real votes in real ballot boxes”, which politicians always say they prefer to polls.

In the last set of these elections, the Conservatives were on a high with a vote share calculated at 40%, with Labour on 30%. Those tables need to be more than reversed if Labour is to live up to its advanced billing, with the Tories dropping towards a vote share in the low 20s.

That would mean the Conservatives losing around 500 seats net – more than half of those they currently hold.

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How Tory MPs can get rid of Sunak – and who could replace him

The possible path to a summer election

Public interest, like voter turnout, tends to be higher in the big mayoral contests.

In London, the government has changed the rules to first past the post to damage the chances of Labour’s Sadiq Khan winning a third term.

Some Conservative campaigners are also playing dirty against him – as shown by a grim online video this week containing shots taken from New York City backed up with questionable presentation of crime statistics.

Khan says this is his hardest election but it seems unlikely that he will be defeated by Susan Hall, the Tory candidate in the capital’s mayoral race.

Mayor of London Sadiq Khan at the launch of his poster campaign.
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Khan’s ULEZ policy caused anger but he’ll probably keep his job. Pic: PA


By any measure, it would be a major shock if Labour fails to win back Blackpool South in the parliamentary by-election, which the Conservatives hope to bury in the excitement of local elections day.

The Conservatives have higher hopes elsewhere following the de facto bankruptcy of Birmingham Council.

It would be a grave blow to them if Andy Street is not re-elected as mayor of the West Midlands. Especially if coupled with defeat in the Tees Valley for Sunak’s controversial poster boy Lord (Ben) Houchen.

Conversely, should Labour underperform and the Tories hang on to some trophy mayors, there is renewed speculation that Sunak might be tempted to go for a general election in June. Not everyone agrees.

One grandee from the John Major years observed “it is very difficult to persuade a prime minister to lose now because he’ll only lose worse later”.

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A summer general election could come about another way if the Conservative local election performance is very bad.

In that scenario, Sunak’s allies expect him to go to the country rather than face a vote of no confidence by Tory MPs.

Labour’s will to win

On the assumption that the government struggles on through the summer, parliament is set to finalise the Rwanda deportation legislation when they return from their Easter break in mid-April.

The Conservatives are hoping for a boost in popularity if a flight gets off soon after that – or at least to reduce the threat from Reform and others on the right.

Sir Keir Starmer is also likely to find himself dealing with fractious elements in his party over the summer. There is no sign of peace in either of the conflict zones of Israel-Gaza or Ukraine-Russia.

Jeremy Corbyn and his backers do not share Starmer’s instincts in either conflict.

There are many pro-Palestinians among Labour’s likely voters. A divisive decision on whether to re-instate Diane Abbott in the party is looming, as is the choice of Labour candidate to stand in Corbyn’s Islington North constituency.

Angela Rayner  and  Keir Starmer during the Labour Party local elections campaign launch at the Black Country & Marches Institute of Technology in Dudley
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Angela Rayner’s capital gains tax affairs are being investigated by police. Pic: PA

Greater Manchester Police have reopened their inquiries into deputy leader Angela Rayner’s alleged non-payment of capital gains tax on her home.

Labour’s will to win is currently as strong as the Conservatives’ is weak. That and, firm discipline from the leadership, should keep the party broadly united.

Some on both left and right will continue to speak up – amplified by the many Tory sympathisers in the media.

In the space of a few days this week, the left-wing polemicist Owen Jones publicised his resignation from Labour and Peter Mandelson fired a warning shot on behalf of business against Rayner’s proposed new deal for workers.

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The likely dates PM will go to polls after rocky conferences

As things stand, the party conference season should go ahead as normal in September.

If they run true to form, any Labour discontent will bubble to the surface in Liverpool, while the Conservatives will try to use Birmingham to launch their general election campaign.

Some expect Sunak to use his leader’s speech to confirm polling day as Thursday 24 October – the day when he will chalk up precisely two years as prime minister.

Two hardened former cabinet ministers told me their working assumption is that it will not be until the 14 or 21 November, after the US election on 5 November. If it is Trump, he is bound to stick his oar into UK politics.

No prime minister, I am assured, would ruin Christmas by holding out until the last legal date in late January 2025 but, in extremis, 19 December this year remains a possibility, in the hope of repeating some of Boris Johnson‘s 2019 differential turnout coup.

Better late than never. It looks as if Sir Keir Starmer still has many months to navigate through until the Curtice-promised land of that general election.

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Teenage boy jailed for seven years for killing 80-year-old dog walker – as 13-year-old girl escapes jail sentence

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Teenage boy jailed for seven years for killing 80-year-old dog walker - as 13-year-old girl escapes jail sentence

The family of an 80-year-old man say they have “no sympathy” for the children who killed their loved one, as a 15-year-old boy was jailed for seven years and a 13-year-old girl escaped a custodial sentence.

Bhim Kohli was found lying on the ground in Franklin Park in Braunstone Town, near Leicester, on 1 September last year and died the next evening of a spinal cord injury.

He had been following a familiar routine, walking his beloved dog Rocky to the local park, just yards away from his home. But when he arrived at the park, he was approached by teens who attacked him.

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CCTV shows 80-year-old before attack

The jury at Leicester Crown Court heard a girl, aged 12 at the time, had pointed Mr Kohli out to a boy, who was 14 at the time, and who then subjected Mr Kohli to a brutally violent attack.

The 80-year-old grandfather was slapped about the face with a slider shoe and racially abused, before being punched and kicked while on the floor.

Mr Kohli suffered a broken neck and fractured ribs as a result of the attack.

Mr Kohli's daughter, Susan Kohli
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Mr Kohli’s daughter, Susan Kohli

His daughter, Susan Kohli, who found her father lying on the ground following the attack, says it’s hard to find forgiveness for her father’s killers, regardless of their ages.

“Why should they be given grace for what they have done?” asks Ms Kohli. “They chose to attack a defenceless pensioner and for that I cannot give them any of my sympathy.”

Bhim Sen Kohli

Initially, the boy, now 15, told the jury he walked over to Mr Kohli, wearing a balaclava because the girl, now 13, had said Mr Kohli “carries a knife”.

But this was disputed in court, and the attack on Mr Kohli was described by the prosecution as “gratuitous violence against a man who was defenceless”.

While the girl involved never physically touched Mr Kohli, the court heard she had taken a photograph of him in Franklin Park just a week before he was killed.

Kelly Matthews, a senior district crown prosecutor
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Kelly Matthews, a senior district crown prosecutor

“If it wasn’t for her, things might have been very different,” said Kelly Matthews, a senior district crown prosecutor, who explained why the girl was also convicted of manslaughter.

“She was the one [who] pointed him out to the boy. Whilst the boy was attacking Mr Kohli, she filmed it. She encouraged him. She laughed, when violence was taking place,” said Ms Matthews.

Police community support officers at the scene in Franklin Park last September. Pic: PA
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Police community support officers at the scene in Franklin Park last September. Pic: PA

Ms Kohli says she still cannot understand why anyone, but especially “children of that age”, would want to attack an “old age pensioner”.

“You can see from his physique that he’s a very gentle, frail man. What was going through their heads?” she asks.

“That’s what I cannot get my head around.”

However, she believes the glorification of violence on social media played an element, and says “parents also have a part to play in it” to ensure their children’s social activity is being monitored.

The 15-year-old boy was ordered to serve seven years’ detention, and the 13-year-old girl was handed a three-year youth rehabilitation order by a High Court judge at Leicester Crown Court.

Mr Justice Turner called it a “cowardly and violent attack” on an elderly man who did “nothing to deserve” what happened to him.

He told the boy: “What you did was not one single attack which you immediately regretted, but two separate violent outbursts.”

He added: “I’m sure you regret he died because of what you did to Mr Kohli, but you still say it wasn’t your fault.

“It was your fault and the sooner you realise this, the better.”

He accepted, while the girl had encouraged the boy’s behaviour, she did not know he would use “anything like the level of violence he did”.

Speaking outside Leicester Crown Court after the sentencing, Ms Kohli said she is “angry and disappointed” the teenagers’ sentence does not reflect the severity of the crime.

“The death of my dad has left a hole in our family, a hole that can never be filled because of the actions of two teenagers on that Sunday evening last September,” she said.

“I believe on that day the two teenagers made a choice. The teenage boy chose to attack my dad and the girl chose to film him being attacked. They knew what they were doing.”

She added: “When they are released, they still have their full lives ahead of them. They can rebuild their lives. We can’t.”

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Murder arrest after electric bike, pedestrian and car collision leaves teen dead in Sheffield

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Murder arrest after electric bike, pedestrian and car collision leaves teen dead in Sheffield

A 20-year-old man has been arrested on suspicion of murder after a 16-year-old boy died following a collision between an electric bike, a pedestrian and a car in Sheffield, police have said.

Emergency services responded shortly after 4.50pm on Wednesday to reports of an accident in Staniforth Road in the Darnall area of Sheffield.

South Yorkshire Police said it is understood that a grey Audi drove towards three electric bikes, colliding with one rider.

The car continued to travel following the crash with the electric bike and was further involved in a collision with a pedestrian.

The driver of the Audi failed to stop at the scene.

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Witness recalls giving CPR

Graphic CCTV footage of the incident appears to show the car veer into the opposite carriageway before hitting the 16-year-old pedestrian at speed.

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Forensics officers at the scene. Pic: YappApp

Pic: YappApp
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Pic: YappApp

The boy was taken to hospital. Despite emergency treatment, he died as a result of his injuries. The boy’s family has been informed and are being supported by specialist officers.

An 18-year-old man, who was the rider of the electric bike, remains in hospital with serious injuries which are not thought to be life-threatening.

A 20-year-old man in Kent has been arrested on suspicion of murder. He remains in police custody.

Three people, a 45-year-old woman and two men aged 26 and 46, have been arrested on suspicion of assisting an offender. All three remain in custody.

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Senior Investigating Officer in the case, Detective Chief Inspector Benjamin Wood, said: “This is a tragic incident in which an entirely innocent bystander, who was going about his daily business, has sadly lost his life. Our thoughts are with the boy’s loved ones, and we remain focused on securing justice for them.

“We know that this incident will have caused concern in the local community, and we have a team of detectives working at pace to piece together the circumstances which unfolded.

“We’re aware of footage being shared online and I’d like to reiterate our message to the public to withhold from speculating or circulating videos which may cause distress to the boy’s family.

“If you have any footage, imagery or information that may help our investigation then please share this directly with us – it may form an important part of our enquiries. We are also keen to hear from the riders of two electric bikes who were in the area at the time of the incident.”

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Mum who abused son so badly he had to have his legs amputated to be freed early from prison

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Mum who abused son so badly he had to have his legs amputated to be freed early from prison

A mother who abused her child so badly he had to have his legs amputated is to be released early from prison.

Jody Simpson and Anthony Smith were both jailed for 10 years in 2018 for torturing their son, Tony Hudgell, who is now 10.

Anthony Smith and Jody Simpson were jailed for abusing Tony
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Anthony Smith and Jody Simpson were jailed for abusing Tony

He was just 41 days old when he was assaulted by the pair and left untreated and in agony for 10 days.

The attack caused multiple fractures, dislocations and blunt trauma to the face, leading to organ failure, toxic shock and sepsis.

The damage meant both his legs had to be amputated.

Simpson was due to be released on licence at the halfway point of her prison sentence in August 2022.

However, then justice secretary Dominic Raab referred her case to the Parole Board and her release was put on hold.

A spokesperson for the Parole Board on Wednesday confirmed Simpson was set to be released.

Paula Hudgell, Tony’s adoptive mother, criticised the decision in a social media post.

“Tony has life long injuries every day he suffers due to her hands,” she wrote on X.

Tony’s case led to a public outcry and calls for child abusers to be given life behind bars.

Tory MP Tom Tugendhat, who led a campaign for the changes, which are also known as Tony’s Law, said on X: “I’m backing Tony as he faces the early release of his abuser – his birth mum.

“Tony lives every day with the pain caused by her crimes as a baby. We must do more to protect children like him.”

Tony has since gone on to be a successful fundraiser for charity – for which he has been honoured by the Royal Family.

Read more:
Royals invite double amputee to Buckingham Palace
Tony Hudgell is youngest person to receive British Empire Medal

The Prince of Wales meets Tony Hudgell during a Royal Garden Party at Buckingham Palace, London. Picture date: Tuesday May 20, 2025.
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The Prince of Wales with Tony, who has raised millions for charity, during a Royal Garden Party at Buckingham Palace in May. Pic: PA

A statement from the Parole Board said: “We can confirm that a panel of the Parole Board has directed the release of Jody Simpson following an oral hearing.

“Parole Board decisions are solely focused on what risk a prisoner could represent to the public if released and whether that risk is manageable in the community.

“A panel will carefully examine a huge range of evidence, including details of the original crime, and any evidence of behaviour change, as well as explore the harm done and impact the crime has had on the victims.”

It added: “Parole reviews are undertaken thoroughly and with extreme care. Protecting the public is our number one priority.”

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A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: “This was a horrific crime that saw Tony Hudgell mercilessly tortured by his birth parents and our thoughts remain with him and his loved ones.

“Now that the independent Parole Board has directed her release, Jody Simpson will be subject to strict supervision and licence conditions. She faces an immediate return to prison if she breaks the rules.”

Smith was due for automatic release in early September 2022, but his early release was blocked at the time.

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