No wonder the Labour Party is desperate for a general election now and bitterly disappointed that Rishi Sunak has “bottled it”, in Keir Starmer’s words, and is sticking to his plan not to hold it until the autumn at the earliest.
Sir John Curtice, the UK polling guru, has gone on the record that there is “a 99% chance of Labourforming the next administration”.
What could possibly go wrong for Labour between now and the verdict of the voters?
Curtice’s one-in-a-hundred chance of falling short is comforting for Sir Keir Starmer, but nobody around him is treating victory as a done deal.
No one has slipped up in the way Cherie Blair did in the run-up to the 1997 election when she chatted to ITN’s political editor about “when” not “if” the family would be in Downing Street.
Party workers of all kinds, including the shadow cabinet, regional organisers, special advisers and press officers are being summoned to HQ for “no complacency” pep talks.
Image: Sir Keir’s worries are dwarfed by the problems facing the Tories. Pic: Reuters
Trump’s 2016 win is a warning against complacency
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At the start of the year, Starmer’s campaign manager Morgan McSweeney even produced a slide pack on the theme “polls do not predict the future”.
It listed recent examples from Australia, Germany and Norway, among others, where a party’s sustained lead in opinion polls did not deliver on the day. Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 being Exhibit A.
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The country is three months further on from then and three months closer to the election.
Labour has sustained its remarkable lead of around 18 points for another three months, a gap that has been that wide for two years since Boris Johnson hit the skids.
And any local difficulties for Starmer are dwarfed by continuing troubles for the Tories.
Even as he tries to point to slightly improving economic circumstances, Rishi Sunak has been beset by further resignations.
Nevertheless, the Labour leadership is braced for a “narrowing in the polls”.
Image: Some believe the PM will hold the election on his two-year anniversary. Pic: Reuters
The local elections in England and Wales on 2 May will be a big test of “real votes in real ballot boxes”, which politicians always say they prefer to polls.
In the last set of these elections, the Conservatives were on a high with a vote share calculated at 40%, with Labour on 30%. Those tables need to be more than reversed if Labour is to live up to its advanced billing, with the Tories dropping towards a vote share in the low 20s.
That would mean the Conservatives losing around 500 seats net – more than half of those they currently hold.
Public interest, like voter turnout, tends to be higher in the big mayoral contests.
In London, the government has changed the rules to first past the post to damage the chances of Labour’s Sadiq Khan winning a third term.
Some Conservative campaigners are also playing dirty against him – as shown by a grim online video this week containing shots taken from New York City backed up with questionable presentation of crime statistics.
Khan says this is his hardest election but it seems unlikely that he will be defeated by Susan Hall, the Tory candidate in the capital’s mayoral race.
Image: Khan’s ULEZ policy caused anger but he’ll probably keep his job. Pic: PA
By any measure, it would be a major shock if Labour fails to win back Blackpool South in the parliamentary by-election, which the Conservatives hope to bury in the excitement of local elections day.
It would be a grave blow to them if Andy Street is not re-elected as mayor of the West Midlands. Especially if coupled with defeat in the Tees Valley for Sunak’s controversial poster boy Lord (Ben) Houchen.
Conversely, should Labour underperform and the Tories hang on to some trophy mayors, there is renewed speculation that Sunak might be tempted to go for a general election in June. Not everyone agrees.
One grandee from the John Major years observed “it is very difficult to persuade a prime minister to lose now because he’ll only lose worse later”.
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A summer general election could come about another way if the Conservative local election performance is very bad.
In that scenario, Sunak’s allies expect him to go to the country rather than face a vote of no confidence by Tory MPs.
Labour’s will to win
On the assumption that the government struggles on through the summer, parliament is set to finalise the Rwanda deportation legislation when they return from their Easter break in mid-April.
The Conservatives are hoping for a boost in popularity if a flight gets off soon after that – or at least to reduce the threat from Reform and others on the right.
Sir Keir Starmer is also likely to find himself dealing with fractious elements in his party over the summer. There is no sign of peace in either of the conflict zones of Israel-Gaza or Ukraine-Russia.
Jeremy Corbyn and his backers do not share Starmer’s instincts in either conflict.
There are many pro-Palestinians among Labour’s likely voters. A divisive decision on whether to re-instate Diane Abbott in the party is looming, as is the choice of Labour candidate to stand in Corbyn’s Islington North constituency.
Image: Angela Rayner’s capital gains tax affairs are being investigated by police. Pic: PA
Labour’s will to win is currently as strong as the Conservatives’ is weak. That and, firm discipline from the leadership, should keep the party broadly united.
Some on both left and right will continue to speak up – amplified by the many Tory sympathisers in the media.
In the space of a few days this week, the left-wing polemicist Owen Jones publicised his resignation from Labour and Peter Mandelson fired a warning shot on behalf of business against Rayner’s proposed new deal for workers.
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The likely dates PM will go to polls after rocky conferences
As things stand, the party conference season should go ahead as normal in September.
If they run true to form, any Labour discontent will bubble to the surface in Liverpool, while the Conservatives will try to use Birmingham to launch their general election campaign.
Some expect Sunak to use his leader’s speech to confirm polling day as Thursday 24 October – the day when he will chalk up precisely two years as prime minister.
Two hardened former cabinet ministers told me their working assumption is that it will not be until the 14 or 21 November, after the US election on 5 November. If it is Trump, he is bound to stick his oar into UK politics.
No prime minister, I am assured, would ruin Christmas by holding out until the last legal date in late January 2025 but, in extremis, 19 December this year remains a possibility, in the hope of repeating some of Boris Johnson‘s 2019 differential turnout coup.
Better late than never. It looks as if Sir Keir Starmer still has many months to navigate through until the Curtice-promised land of that general election.
A 32-year-old man has been charged with 10 counts of attempted murder after a mass stabbing on a high-speed train.
Anthony Williams, 32, from Peterborough, was arrested on Saturday evening following an attack on the Doncaster to London King’s Cross LNER service.
He has been charged with 10 counts of attempted murder, one count of actual bodily harm and one count of possession of a bladed article following a knife attack on a train in Cambridgeshire on Saturday, British Transport Police (BTP) said.
BTP said he has also been charged with another count of attempted murder and possession of a bladed article in connection with an incident on a London train in the early hours of 1 November.
Police said a victim suffered facial injuries after being attacked at 12.46am with a knife on a train at Pontoon Dock station on the Docklands Light Railway (DLR) in east London.
In a statement to Sky News, BTP said the suspect had left the location before police arrived and officers subsequently identified Williams as a suspect.
Williams will appear at Peterborough Magistrates on Monday morning, police said.
Armed police were deployed to Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire, where the train was stopped and made the arrest within eight minutes of the first 999 call.
Image: Forensic teams gathering evidence at Huntingdon train station on Sunday, after a mass train stabbing. Pic: PA
Footage of the arrest has emerged, showing a man on the ground surrounded by officers and a barking police dog, with the sound of a Taser being deployed.
Another man, 35, from London, who was also detained, was later released after officers established he was not involved.
On Monday, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander told Sky News that one man, originally suffering life-threatening injuries, was now in a critical but stable condition in hospital.
She toldMornings with Ridge and Frost programme: “He went in to do his job, and he left work a hero. And there are people who are alive today because of his actions and his bravery.”
On Sunday, British Transport Police (BTP) confirmed he was a member of LNER rail staff who tried to stop the attacker.
“Having viewed the CCTV from the train, the actions of the member of rail staff were nothing short of heroic and undoubtedly saved people’s lives,” said BTP Deputy Chief Constable (DCC) Stuart Cundy.
The train driver, named as Andrew Johnson, has also been hailed as “courageous” for his actions during the stabbings.
Following the announcement about the charges on Monday, DCC Cundy warned against anyone interfering with their ongoing investigation.
“Our investigation is also looking at other possible linked offences. Following the charges authorised by the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) I would stress the importance of not saying or publishing anything which might jeopardise or prejudice ongoing criminal proceedings, or the integrity of the investigation.”
Ms Alexander also told Sky News that BTP would be “increasing the visible patrols at stations” over the next few days.
“But generally, our trains are some of the most safest forms of public transport anywhere in the world,” she added.
Image: Armed police officers on patrol at St Pancras International station on Monday morning. Pic: PA
Tracy Easton, chief crown prosecutor for CPS Direct, said: “Our team of out-of-hours prosecutors worked to establish that there is sufficient evidence to bring the case to trial and it is in the public interest to pursue criminal proceedings.
“We worked closely with British Transport Police to review a huge volume of evidence including CCTV. The number of charges will be kept under review as this continues to progress.
“We know the devastating impact the events on Saturday’s train has had and how the incident shocked the entire country. Our thoughts remain with all those affected.”
A pregnant British teenager has been released from jail in Georgia after being held on drug smuggling charges.
Bella May Culley, 19, of Billingham, County Durham, was arrested in May at Tbilisi Airport and accused of attempting to smuggle 12kg of marijuana and 2kg of hashish into the country.
She was found guilty by a Georgian court on Monday and sentenced to five months and 25 days in prison, the total time she had already spent in custody. Her family also paid a 500,000 lari (about £138,000) as part of a plea deal aimed at reducing her sentence.
Culley and her mother, Lyanne Kennedy, both cried as the verdict was read.
Wearing a cream blazer, the teenager looked overwhelmed as she was released from custody on Monday.
Asked how she felt, she said she was “happy” and told reporters she did not expect to be freed.
Image: Bella Culley at an earlier court hearing in May. Pic: RUSTAVI 2/AP
Culley’s mother held her daughter’s hand as she was released.
Georgian prosecutors were considering a two-year sentence, but “decided to consider the time she has already served,” case prosecutor Vakhtang Tsalughelashvili told The Associated Press.
Culley’s lawyer, Malkhaz Salakhaia, said she would be given her passport and would be free to leave the country on Monday.
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Police footage released in May showed Culley in handcuffs as she made an initial court appearance. Pic: AP
The teenager pleaded not guilty to the charges after her arrest, saying she was tortured in Thailand and forced to carry the drugs.
Culley initially pleaded not guilty at a hearing in July to possession and trafficking illegal drugs.
She initially faced a maximum penalty of up to 15 years or life imprisonment, but was in talks with prosecutors about a potential plea bargain.
Image: Bella Culley walks with her mother, Lyanne Kennedy, following her release. Pic: Reuters
In Georgia, a nation of 3.7 million in the South Caucasus, the law allows for financial plea agreements that can be reached to reduce or eliminate a prison sentence in certain cases.
Such plea agreements are often obtained in drug-related cases.
Culley was reported missing in Thailand before her arrest at Tbilisi Airport on May 10.
The sole survivor of the Air India crash that killed 241 people on board has told Sky News he has been “broke down” by the trauma.
Air India Flight 171 crashed into a building just after take-off in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, on 12 June, with Briton Viswashkumar Ramesh the only passenger who walked away from the wreckage.
Warning: This article contains details some may find distressing
Mr Ramesh, 40, was in the now-fabled seat 11a, which was located next to an emergency door that he managed to climb out of after the Boeing 787 Dreamliner crashed.
Image: Smoke rises from the wreckage. Pic: Reuters
His younger brother, Ajaykumar, seated in a different row on the plane, could not escape.
Months on, Mr Ramesh wanted to share the impact of that day in an attempt to try to regain control of his life – and to pressure Air India into addressing the catastrophic effect of the crash on him and his family.
But it is clearly traumatic to talk about.
“It’s very painful talking about the plane,” he says softly.
Asked by Ridge if he can speak about what happened on board, he falls silent.
Just after the crash, from his hospital bed, Mr Ramesh told cable news channel DD India “there were bodies all around me” when he stood up after the crash. A further 19 people had been killed on the ground.
In hospital, he was still pleading for help in finding his brother.
“How is your life now?” Ridge asks.
He says the crash has left him feeling “very broke down”, adding it’s much the same for the rest of his family.
He does not leave the house, he says, instead sitting alone in his bedroom, doing “nothing”.
“I just think about my brother,” he adds. “For me, he was everything.”
He says he still cannot believe Ajaykumar is dead – but that’s as much as he can bring himself to say about him.
Ridge acknowledges the contrast between Mr Ramesh’s own survival – “a miracle” – and the “nightmare” of losing his brother.
It echoes the sentiment of Mr Ramesh’s other brother, Nayankumar, who told Sky News in June: “I’ve got no words to describe it. It’s a miracle that he [Viswashkumar] survived – but what about the other miracle for my other brother?”
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Nayankumar speaking to Sky News in June
Mr Ramesh says he is still suffering physical discomfort too, dealing with knee, shoulder and back pain, along with burns to his left arm. His wife, he says, has to help him shower.
He and his wife live in Leicester with their four-year-old son, Divang.
“I have a four-year-old, so I know what four-year-olds are like,” Ridge says. “They’re a handful but they can bring a lot joy as well. How has he been since the tragedy happened?”
Mr Ramesh says Divang is “okay” but, with his eyes lowered, adds: “I’m not talking properly with my son.”
“Does he come to your room?” Ridge asks.
He shakes his head.
Mr Ramesh was joined by Leicester community leader Sanjiv Patel and his adviser and spokesperson Radd Seiger for support as he spoke to Ridge.
“Sophy… this is an important question that you’re asking,” says Mr Seiger.
“You’re a parent, I’m a parent, and we all know that being a parent is a privilege, isn’t it? But it takes a lot of energy… you need to be in a good place to be a good parent, to have that from the moment they wake up to the moment they go to bed.
“You need to be in a good place and we can all see… he’s [Mr Ramesh] been robbed of that and I think it’s just a chore for him to just get through the day, let alone be a husband, be a father.”
What’s next for the crash’s sole survivor?
Mr Seiger and Mr Patel say the list of what he needs to get his life back on track is “endless” but that it starts with “practical things” such as financial support.
Mr Ramesh and Ajaykumar used “all their savings” to set up a fishing business in India, which saw them frequently flying there together from the UK.
The business has stopped running since the crash, meaning Mr Ramesh’s extended family in both the UK and India has no income, according to Mr Patel.
For them, it amounts to an “existential threat”, he adds.
Image: Police officer standing in front of Air India aircraft wreckage after crash near Ahmedabad airport. Pic: Reuters
They say Air India has offered Mr Ramesh a flat interim payment of £21,500 – a one-off sum given to a claimant in advance of reaching the end of a personal injury claim.
A spokesperson for Tata Group, Air India’s parent company, told Sky News that Mr Ramesh had accepted the payment and that it had been transferred to him.
But Mr Seiger says the sum “doesn’t even touch the sides” when it comes to everything Mr Ramesh needs while he is unable to work or leave his home – from help with transporting his son to school, to food, to medical and psychiatric support.
They are petitioning for more than just cash payments, which they suggest reduces Mr Ramesh to “a number on a spreadsheet”.
Rather, they want Air India’s chief executive Campbell Wilson to meet with him, his family and the families of other victims in the crash, to hear about their struggles and “talk as humans”.
Mr Patel said: “Meet the people. Understand what they’re going through. Relying on bureaucratic machinery to deal with real lives [of people] who are going through real trauma – the pain of that, the financial consequences – that is the day-to-day – how lives have been destroyed, and not just the immediate family, but extended families too.”
Image: A fire officer stands next to the crashed aircraft. Pic: Reuters
A spokesperson for Air India told Sky News: “We are deeply conscious of our responsibility to provide Mr Ramesh with support through what must have been an unimaginable period. Care for him – and indeed all families affected by the tragedy – remains our absolute priority.
“Senior leaders from across Tata Group continue to visit families to express their deepest condolences. An offer has been made to Mr Ramesh’s representatives to arrange such a meeting, we will continue to reach out and we very much hope to receive a positive response.
“We are keenly aware this continues to be an incredibly difficult time for all affected and continue to offer the support, compassion, and care we can in the circumstances.”
Mr Patel also claims the UK government took away Mr Ramesh’s family’s Universal Credit after they went to India following the disaster.
According to the government’s website, those receiving Universal Credit can continue to do so if they go abroad for one month. This can be extended to two months if “a close relative dies while you’re abroad and it would not be reasonable for you to come back to the UK”, it states.
They are calling on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to look into the family’s circumstances and pressure Air India into doing more to help.
Mr Patel appeals to him, saying: “Take action today. If this was your family, what would you do? And if you understand that, you’ll know what to do.”
He suggests the UK government can also be doing more directly to help families in Britain who have been “devastated” by the crash.
“So while we wait for Air India to do what’s right, there’s what the UK authorities and the system can do as being right to serve the citizens in support during this tragic time,” he adds.
The Department for Work and Pensions told Sky News: “Our thoughts remain with the loved ones affected by this devastating tragedy.
“Our policy ensures people travelling abroad due to a bereavement can continue receiving Universal Credit for up to two months, rather than the standard one-month limit. Those who are abroad for longer periods would not be able to continue receiving the benefit.
“People can make a new claim once they return to the UK. This approach strikes a balance between our commitment to ensuring people get the support they need and our duty to the taxpayer.”