Sex offenders could face chemical castration and thousands of offenders will be released after serving a third of their jail term, under plans proposed in a sentencing policy review set to be accepted by ministers.

The independent review, led by the former justice secretary David Gauke, was commissioned by the government amid an overcrowding crisis in prisons in England and Wales.

It has made a series of recommendations with the aim of reducing the prison population by 9,800 people by 2028.

The key proposal, which it is understood the government will implement, is a “progression model” – which would see offenders who behave well in jail only serve a third of their term in custody, before being released.

The measure will apply to people serving standard determinate sentences, which is the most common type of jail term, being served by the majority of offenders.

It will be based on sentence length, rather than offence type. That means sex offenders and domestic abusers serving sentences of under four years, could all be eligible for early release.

The policy will mean inmates serve only a third of their sentence in prison, a third on licence in the community, with the remaining portion under no probation supervision at all.

If the offender committed further offences in the “at risk” – or final – stages of their sentence, once out of prison, they would be sent back to jail to serve the remainder of the original sentence, plus time inside jail for the new offence.

Chemical castration trial could be extended

The government will also further the use of medication to suppress the sexual drive of sex offenders, which is currently being piloted in southwest England.

The review recommended that chemical castration “may assist in management of suitable sex offenders both in prison and in the community”.

Ministers are to announce plans for a nationwide rollout, and will first expand the use of the medication to 20 prisons across England.

The justice secretary is also considering whether to make castration mandatory. It’s currently voluntary.

Mr Gauke, the chair of the independent sentencing review, told Sky News that “drugs that reduce sexual desire” will not be “appropriate for every sexual offender”.

“I’m not going to claim it’s the answer for everything,” the former justice secretary said. “This is about reducing the risk of re-offending in future.

“There are some sex offenders who want to reduce their desires and if we can explore this, I think that is something that’s worthwhile.”

However, Mr Gauke stressed that the government needs to focus on “reducing crime overall”.

Domestic abuse commissioner criticises plans

Under his recommendations, violent offenders who are serving sentences of four years or more could be released on licence after spending half of their sentence behind bars. This could be extended if they do not comply with prison rules. These prisoners would then be supervised in the community until 80% of their sentence.

In response to the review, the police have warned: “Out of prison should not mean out of control.”

“If we are going to have fewer people in prison, we need to ensure that we collectively have the resources and powers to manage the risk offenders pose outside of prison,” said Chief Constable Sacha Hatchett at the National Police Chiefs Council.

The domestic abuse commissioner for England and Wales, Nicole Jacobs, said adopting the measures would amount to “watering down” the criminal justice system.

“By adopting these measures the government will be sending a clear message to domestic abusers that they can now offend with little consequence,” she said.

In a set of proposals considered to be the biggest overhaul of sentencing power laws since the 1990s, judges could be given more flexibility to punish lower level offenders with bans on football or driving.

The review has also recommended that short sentences should only be used in “exceptional circumstances”, suggesting they are “associated with higher proven reoffending” and “fall short in providing meaningful rehabilitation to offenders”.

The Howard League for Penal Reform has welcomed the proposals as a “good start”.

“This is a vital review that makes the case for change by focusing on the evidence on what will reduce reoffending and prevent more people becoming victims of crime,” said chief executive Andrea Coomber.

David Gauke’s review has called on the government to “invest” in a probation service that is “under significant strain”, as its proposals recommend a larger number of offenders should be punished and supervised in the community.

“Tagging can be a useful way to monitor offenders and identify escalating risks,” it said.

The government is set to invest a further £700m in the probation service and introduce a mass expansion of tagging technology, where tens of thousands of criminals will be monitored at any one time, creating a “prison outside of a prison”, with the help of US tech companies.

‘Overriding concerns’

The Victims Commissioner, Baroness Newlove, has expressed an “overriding concern” about the ability of an “already stretched probation service” to “withstand the additional pressure” of managing a larger number of people outside of prison.

The policy review also makes recommendations around offenders that are recalled to prison after breaching their licence conditions.

Currently, around 15% of those behind bars are there because they have been recalled. Mostly, it’s for breaching of licence conditions, rather than further offences.

The review recommends a “tighter threshold” for recall so that it is “only used to address consistent non-compliance”, with licence conditions – which can include missing a probation appointment.

Read more:
Minister refuses to rule out ‘supermax’ prisons
Victim watchdog questions offenders’ early release

Last week the government announced plans that will see offenders serving one to four-year sentences held for a fixed 28-day period if they are returned to jail.

The review suggests increasing that limit to 56 days, in order to “allow sufficient time for planning around appropriate conditions for safe re-release into community supervision”.

The government is expected to accept the review’s key measures, and implement them with a sentencing bill before parliament.

The plans will likely require legislation and only be before the courts by the spring of 2026.

Donald Trump has ambushed South Africa’s president during a White House meeting by playing a video purportedly showing evidence of a “genocide” of white farmers in the African country.

The US president, who was hosting leader Cyril Ramaphosa in the Oval Office, said the footage showed the graves of more than a thousand white farmers and “it’s a terrible sight… I’ve never seen anything like it. Those people are all killed”.

After an initial friendly chat where Mr Trump complimented South African golfers in the room, a montage of clips was played as Mr Ramaphosa sat quietly and mostly expressionless. He later said: “I’d like to know where that is because this [the alleged burial site in the video] I’ve never seen”.

The lights were dimmed in the Oval Office as the clips were shown, including of South African officials allegedly calling for violence against white farmers.

The scene in the heart of the White House administration was reminiscent of Mr Trump’s ambush of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February.

But later, as he left after around three hours at the White House, Mr Ramaphosa insisted his meeting with Mr Trump went “very well”.

And he told a news conference: “There is just no genocide in South Africa.”

The White House’s official account on X posted the footage that was shown in the Oval Office, saying it was “proof of persecution in South Africa”.

South Africa has rejected the allegation that white people are disproportionately targeted by crime.

The clips included one of communist politician Julius Malema playing a controversial anti-apartheid song that includes lyrics about killing a farmer.

Mr Trump accused South Africa of failing to address the killing of white farmers.

“We have many people that feel they’re being persecuted, and they’re coming to the United States. So we take from many… locations, if we feel there’s persecution or genocide going on,” the US president said, referring specifically to white farmers.

He added: “People are fleeing South Africa for their own safety. Their land is being confiscated and in many cases they’re being killed.”

Alluding to people in the clips, Mr Trump said: “These are people that are officials and they’re saying… kill the white farmer and take their land.”

The US president then displayed printed copies of news articles that he said showed white South Africans who had been killed, saying “death, death” as he flipped through them.

He added of one article: “Here’s burial sites all over the place, these are all white farmers that are being buried.”

South African leader rejects allegations

Mr Ramaphosa pushed back against Mr Trump’s accusations, by responding: “What you saw, the speeches that were being made, that is not government policy. We have a multi-party democracy in South Africa that allows people to express themselves, political parties to adhere to various policies.

“And in many cases, or in some cases, those policies do not go along with government policy.

“Our government policy is completely, completely against what he [a person in the video montage] was saying, even in the parliament. And they are a small minority party which is allowed to exist in terms of our constitution.”

Read more from Sky News:
Ex-Ukrainian politician living abroad shot dead on school run
The soldiers faced with ‘raining bullets’ from violent gangs

Mr Ramaphosa also said of the behaviour alleged by Mr Trump: “We are completely opposed to that.”

The South African leader said there was crime in his country, and the majority of victims were black. Mr Trump cut him off and said: “The farmers are not black.” The South African president responded: “These are concerns we are willing to talk to you about.”

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In February, Mr Trump issued an executive order which cut all funding to South Africa over some of its domestic and foreign policies. He also expelled South Africa’s ambassador and offered refuge to white minority Afrikaners based on racial discrimination claims which Pretoria says are baseless.

Experts in South Africa have said there is no evidence of white people being targeted, although farmers of all races are victims of violent home invasions in a country that suffers from a very high crime rate.

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In yet another dramatic encounter in the Oval Office, Donald Trump ambushed South Africa’s president in a choreographed showdown on Wednesday.

But why is the president accusing South Africa of genocide?

On Trump100 US correspondents Mark Stone and Martha Kelner react to the exchange and Cyril Ramaphosa’s response. They debunk the far-right claims that thousands of white farmers are being killed in South Africa, despite what Mr Trump says.

Plus, we hear from an advocate for Afrikaners who says the US president may have been persuaded to welcome white South African refugees after speaking to his friends on the golf course.

If you’ve got a question you’d like the Trump100 team to answer, you can email it to trump100@sky.uk.

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