Negotiations to reset the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU are going “to the wire”, a Cabinet Office minister has said.

“There is no final deal as yet. We are in the very final hours,” the UK’s lead negotiator Nick Thomas-Symonds told Sky’s Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips.

On the possibility of a youth mobility scheme with the EU, he insisted “nothing is agreed until everything is”.

“We would be open to a smart, controlled youth mobility scheme,” he said. “But I should set out, we will not return to freedom of movement.”

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The government is set to host EU leaders in London on Monday.

Put to the minister that the government could not guarantee there will be a deal by tomorrow afternoon, Mr Thomas-Symonds said: “Nobody can guarantee anything when you have two parties in a negotiation.”

But the minister said he remained “confident” a deal could be reached “that makes our borders more secure, is good for jobs and growth, and brings people’s household bills down”.

“That is what is in our national interest and that’s what we will continue to do over these final hours,” he said.

“We have certainly been taking what I have called a ruthlessly pragmatic approach.”

On agricultural products, food and drink, Mr Thomas-Symonds said supermarkets were crying out for a deal because the status quo “isn’t working”, with “lorries stuck for 16 hours and food rotting” and producers and farmers unable to export goods because of the amount of “red tape”.

Asked how much people could expect to save on shopping as a result of the deal the government was hoping to negotiate, the minister was unable to give a figure.

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On the issue of fishing, asked if a deal would mean allowing French boats into British waters, the minister said the Brexit deal which reduced EU fishing in UK waters by a quarter over five years comes to an end next year.

He said the objectives now included “an overall deal in the interest of our fishers, easier access to markets to sell our fish and looking after our oceans”.

Turning to borders, the minister was asked if people would be able to move through queues at airports faster.

Again, he could not give a definitive answer, but said it was “certainly something we have been pushing with the EU… we want British people who are going on holiday to be able to go and enjoy their holiday, and not be stuck in queues”.

PM opens door to EU youth mobility scheme

A deal granting the UK access to a major EU defence fund could be on the table, according to reports – and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has appeared to signal a youth mobility deal could be possible, telling The Times that while freedom of movement is a “red line”, youth mobility does not come under this.

The European Commission has proposed opening negotiations with the UK on an agreement to facilitate youth mobility between the EU and the UK. The scheme would allow both UK and EU citizens aged between 18 and 30 years old to stay for up to four years in a country of their choosing.

Earlier this month, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper told Phillips a youth mobility scheme was not the approach the government wanted to take to bring net migration down.

When this was put to him, Mr Thomas-Symonds insisted any deal on a youth mobility scheme with Europe will have to be “smart” and “controlled” and will be “consistent” with the government’s immigration policy.

Asked what the government had got in return for a youth mobility scheme – now there had been a change in approach – the minister said: “It is about an overall balanced package that works for Britain. The government is 100% behind the objective of getting net migration down.”

Phillips said more than a million young people came to the country between 2004 and 2015. “If there isn’t a cap – that’s what we are talking about,” he said.

The minister insisted such a scheme would be “controlled” – but refused to say whether there would be a cap.

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‘It’s going to be a bad deal’

Shadow cabinet office minister Alex Burghart told Phillips an uncapped youth mobility scheme with the EU would lead to “much higher immigration”, adding: “It sounds very much as though it’s going to be a bad deal.”

Asked if the Conservatives would scrap any EU deal, he said: “It depends what the deal is, Trevor. And we still, even at this late stage, we don’t know.

“The government can’t tell us whether everyone will be able to come. They can’t tell us how old the young person is. They can’t tell us what benefits they would get.

“So I think when people hear about a youth mobility scheme, they think about an 18-year-old coming over working at a bar. But actually we may well be looking at a scheme which allows 30-year-olds to come over and have access to the NHS on day one, to claim benefits on day one, to bring their extended families.”

He added: “So there are obviously very considerable disadvantages to the UK if this deal is done in the wrong way.”

Jose Manuel Barroso, former EU Commission president, told Phillips it “makes sense” for a stronger relationship to exist between the European Union and the UK, adding: “We are stronger together.”

He said he understood fishing and youth mobility are the key sticking points for a UK-EU deal.

“Frankly, what is at stake… is much more important than those specific issues,” he said.

This EU-UK summit has for months been openly billed by Sir Keir Starmer’s Downing Street as a hugely significant moment for this government.

The Labour leader promised in his 2024 election manifesto that the UK would sign a new security pact with the EU to strengthen cooperation and improve the UK’s trading relationship with the continent.

Since winning power in July, he has embarked on a charm offensive across European capitals in a bid to secure that better post-Brexit deal.

Monday is set to be when the PM makes good on those promises at a historic summit at Lancaster House in London.

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There, the EU and UK are expected to sign a security and defence partnership, which has taken on a new sense of urgency since the arrival of President Trump in the White House.

It is an agreement that will symbolise the post-Brexit reset, with the PM, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president Antonio Costa are also expected to sign off on a communique pledging deeper economic cooperation.

But, rather like the torturous Brexit negotiations I covered for years in London and Brussels under Conservative prime ministers, Sir Keir’s post-Brexit reset talks are going down to the wire.

As of 10.30pm on Sunday, discussions were set to continue overnight, the two sides snared up over details around fisheries, food trade and youth mobility.

It’s not that both sides don’t want the reset: the war in Ukraine and the spectre of the US becoming an unreliable partner have pushed London and Brussels closer together in their common defence interest.

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Fishing and youth mobility – the two snags

But the pressure for this deal weighs more heavily on our prime minister than his European colleagues. He’s been talking for months about securing a reset and better trading relationship with the EU to bolster the UK economy.

His need to demonstrate wins is why, suggests one continental source, the Europeans are letting talks go to the wire, with London and Brussels in a tangle over fishing rights – key demands of France and the Netherlands – and a youth mobility scheme, which is a particular focus for Berlin.

“The British came with 50 asks, we came with two – on fishing and the youth mobility scheme,” says one European source.

The EU is asking for longer-term access to UK fishing grounds – a 10-year deal – which the British government has rebuffed, insisting it will not go beyond a four-year deal.

In response, Brussels is saying it will not lift regulatory checks on food, agricultural and animal products unless the UK moves on fishing. This has left the two sides at an impasse.

EU sources say Brussels had offered a time-limited deal to lift checks on animal products – replicating London’s offer on fisheries – but the UK is reluctant to do this as it leaves too much uncertainty for farmers and supermarkets.

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A deal on food products, known as sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) goods, would be a boost for the economy, with potentially up to 80% of border checks disappearing, given the breadth of products – paint, fashion goods, leather as well as foods – with an animal component.

Any deal would also mean the UK would have to align with rules made in Brussels and make a financial contribution to the EU to fund work on food and animal standards.

Both elements will trigger accusations of Brexit “betrayal”, as the UK signs up as a “rule taker” and finds itself paying back into the EU for better access.

Government figures had been telling me how they were more than prepared to face down the criticisms likely to be thrown at them from the Conservatives.

But sensitivities around fishing, particularly in Scotland, where Labour is facing elections next year, have weighed on talks.

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The other area of huge tension is over a youth mobility scheme, which would enable young adults from member states to study and work in the UK and vice versa.

Government sources familiar with the talks acknowledge some sort of scheme will happen, but want details to be vague – I’m told it might be “an agreement about a future agreement”, while the EU sees this a one of its two core demands.

In talks late on Sunday night, the UK government appeared to be softening on re-opening the pre-Brexit Erasmus student exchange scheme as perhaps a way to get around the impasse, according to one EU source.

The UK rejoining this scheme had been rebuffed by Sir Keir last year, but was raised again last night in talks, according to a source.

Common ground on defence and security

Wherever the economic horsetrading lands, the two sides have found common ground in recent months is on defence and security, with the UK working in lockstep with European allies over Ukraine and relationships deepening in recent months as Sir Keir Starmer has worked with President Macron and others to try to smooth tensions between Kyiv and Washington and work on a European peace deal for Ukraine.

If details on trade, youth mobility and fisheries are fudged on Monday, the expectation is that the two sides will sign a security partnership that will reiterate the UK’s commitment to build up the continent’s defence capability and stand united against Russian aggression with its partners.

The deal should also mean British arms companies will be able to access the EU’s €150bn rearmament programme, which has been set up to create a massive surge in defence spending over the next five years as Europe prepares itself to better repel threats.

As I write this, talks are ongoing, but it is clearly in neither side’s interest for Monday to go wrong.

The EU and UK need to maintain a united front and, more importantly for Keir Starmer domestically, the PM needs to show an increasingly sceptical public he can deliver on his promises.

Easing trade barriers with Britain’s biggest trading partner and signing an EU defence pact would be two manifesto promises delivered.

And with his popularity sinking to a record low in recent days, he could really do with a win.

Last week, Sir Keir Starmer voiced his worry Britain could become an “island of strangers” if immigration was not tackled.

Some claimed this was a controversial and dangerous stance – drawing parallels with Enoch Powell’s Rivers of Blood speech.

But research released today suggests close to half of those in Great Britain feel like “strangers” in their own country.

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The survey, carried out by pollsters at More In Common, asked 13,464 people in Great Britain for their feelings on the matter.

And what is even more surprising is that the survey was carried out over a month before Sir Keir‘s speech.

The research is only being released today, and it is understood that Downing Street had not seen it before the prime minister’s speech.

However it will likely be welcomed as a justification of a position aimed outside of Westminster.

Isolation linked to wealth

The prime minister’s concerns about Great Britain being an “island of strangers” was inextricably linked to rising immigration.

But the research out today shows the isolation felt by many is strongly linked to wealth – with the poorest in the country more likely to feel like strangers.

The cost of living was mentioned as a contributory factor by many of those asked.

And when it comes to ethnic breakdown of those saying they feel like strangers, Asian or Asian British people were more likely than either white or black British people to say they felt separate.

Amy, a teacher from Runcorn, told researchers that when “your money’s all going on your bills and the boring stuff like food and gas and leccy and petrol” there is nothing left “to do for ourselves”.

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Those who criticised Sir Keir for his “strangers” speech tended to accuse the prime minister of appealing to supporters of Reform or the Conservatives.

Suspended Labour MP Zarah Sultana went as far as to claim the speech was a “foghorn to the far right”.

The analysis from More in Common found that people who supported Reform and the Conservatives last year are indeed much more likely to feel like strangers in the UK.

While Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters are all less likely to feel like strangers, around a third of them do still agree with the statement that they “sometimes feel like a stranger in my own country”.

And the polling also found that Reform and Conservative voters are much more likely to think that multiculturalism threatens national identity, while supporters of the other three parties tend to largely believe multiculturalism is a benefit.

Across the board, supporters of all parties were more likely than not to think that everyone needs to do more to encourage integration between people of different ethnic backgrounds – and similarly a majority think it is everyone’s responsibility to do so.

Luke Tryl, the UK director of More in Common, said: “The prime minister’s warning that we risk becoming an ‘island of strangers’ resonates with millions who say they feel disconnected from those around them.

“But it would be a mistake to say that immigration and lack of integration are the sole causes of our fragmenting social fabric.”

John McDonnell, another former Labour MP, now suspended, told Sky News that having politicians “exploit” resentment fuelled by economic circumstance to shift “the blame onto migrants just exacerbates the problem”.

He said the government needs to “tackle the insecurity of people’s lives and you lay the foundations of a cohesive society”.

With Reform now leading in the polls and the collapse of support for Sir Keir since becoming prime minister, it is unsurprising that what he says seems to match up with what turquoise voters feel.

Work from home alone

The post-pandemic shift to working from home and spending more time alone has also been blamed for an increased feeling of isolation.

Ruqayyah, a support worker from Peterborough, said the shift to home offices had “destroyed our young generation”.

But there are many other reasons that people feel separate from the rest of their country.

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Young people are less trusting of strangers, and there is also a deep discontent with the political system.

Many think the system is “rigged” in favour of the wealthy – although this belief is less common the higher the level of education someone has completed.

The tension that exploded during last year’s riots are also highlighted, and many people are worried about religious differences – a situation exacerbated by foreign conflicts like in the Middle East and between India and Pakistan.

The research was carried out alongside the campaign group Citizens UK and UCL.

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Matthew Bolton, executive director of Citizens UK, said: “We all saw what can happen last summer when anger and mistrust boil over and threaten the fabric of our society.

“The answers to this don’t lie in Whitehall.

“By listening to people closest to the ground about what causes division and what builds unity in their neighbourhood, we can build a blueprint for cohesion rooted in local leadership and community power.”