Adam Boulton: Keir Starmer should expect to come under vicious assault from day one if Labour wins landslide
No complacency.
The dictat from Labour high command is that nothing can be taken for granted – certainly not the 99% likelihood which Sir John Curtice places on Labour forming the next government, after the general election.
Victory, even a smashing one, is a possibility however – at least according to stubbornly consistent opinion polls.
The latest major survey, by YouGov, gives Sir Keir Starmer a landslide victory of a scale just short of Tony Blair’s landslide in 1997 when Labour won a 179-seat majority.
It gives Labour 403 MPs, the Conservatives 155, Liberal Democrats 49 and the SNP 23 – amounting to a 154 Labour overall majority.
Another recent large survey, by Survation using the same MRP technique of big samples analysed by region, is more apocalyptic for the Conservatives. It pushes the Tories down to around only 100 MPs and would give Sir Keir a record-breaking 256 majority.
Keir Starmer faces the possibility of winning a majority akin to that seen by Tony Blair. Pic: PA
Labour’s current representation in the Commons would double while the Conservatives would be more than halved.
The Reform Party would have no MPs.
In both these MRP polls and in the numerous national opinion polls over the last couple of years, prominent Conservative MPs and ministers are on course to lose their seats.
Those at risk include Iain Duncan Smith, Jacob Rees Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps and James Cleverly.
Rishi Sunak is seemingly facing defeat at the next election according to recent polls. Pic: PA
Public opinion seems remarkably settled. Many Conservative MPs feel nobody is listening to them anymore.
Who would be in a landslide Labour government?
Just suppose the polls are right for once and the gap between the parties does not narrow in the run-up to voting, the nation, if not the ever-cautious Labour leadership, needs to start thinking what a landslide Labour government would look like.
There is nothing like the enthusiasm there was for the charismatic Tony Blair in 1997 – Keir Starmer has negative personal ratings, only much better than Rishi Sunak.
Voters are more disillusioned by politicians of any kind than they were then but a landslide would be a landslide and there are some comparisons to be drawn.
The polls paint a rosy picture for Labour. Pic: PA
When a team wins comfortably it is difficult to change the line-up. It must be assumed that Prime Minister Starmer will flank himself with the same shadow cabinet in the same jobs.
In the great offices of state, neither David Lammy at the Foreign Office nor Chancellor Rachel Reeves would arrive with anything like the authority and reputation enjoyed by Robin Cook and Gordon Brown.
They would also be coming in at more difficult times economically and internationally.
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At the Home Office, the veteran Yvette Cooper is a match for Jack Straw. She will need to deal credibly with immigration, currently the most inflamed topic of public concern.
Fresh creative thinking is more likely to come from less senior ministers such as Wes Streeting at health and deputy leader Angela Rayner.
Angela Rayner
Starmer plans to keep control by building up an executive government consisting of himself, Reeves, Rayner and Pat McFadden. Reeves and McFadden are primarily enforcers of economic discipline. Tensions may soon emerge even in this top group as Starmer and Reeves come under internal pressure to deliver tangible improvements in public services.
Labour will lack excuses if the polls are accurate
An overwhelming majority would deprive Labour of excuses not to deliver on what it has promised.
In its first 100 days, the new Labour government will have to enact what little it has trailed including VAT on private schools and a new deal for workers and trade unions.
It would be able get anything through parliament. This, along with trying not to put up unnecessary targets for the Conservatives, may explain the lack of specificity about the five missions which Starmer has set himself.
It may be that something similar to Blair’s pledge card, which set up modest achievable goals in the main areas of public concern, emerges during the campaign.
At present there are little more than warm words from Labour on improving growth, the NHS, green energy, education and childcare. Similarly Reeves is promising reorganisation and new quangos which only relate remotely to the high growth economy Labour says it needs.
In a landslide, more than half of Labour’s MPs will be first-timers at Westminster. There has been an effort to select “Starmtroopers” in winnable seats, but the leadership will not know them all.
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The new Labour parliamentary party will be younger. Millennial concerns such as housing and the cost of universities will be higher up the agenda.
The backfiring of Brexit on the Conservatives and gender self-ID on the Scottish government is likely to discourage bids to force the pace on divisive issues.
Neither his MPs nor the party conference gave Blair much trouble during his first term. Starmer would likely benefit as well from a mix of inexperience and gratitude.
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With the new prime minister simultaneously committed to executive government and “powering up” the regions, challenge from within Labour is likely to come from the mayors in Manchester, Liverpool and London, assuming they are re-elected in their own right this year.
Her Majesty’s Opposition cannot be expected to put up much actual opposition if crushed in a landslide.
The Conservatives would be impotent in parliament and, if 1997-2005 is anything to go by, more interested in their own internal battles over party leadership.
The Liberal Democrats would relish their restoration as the UK’s official third force at the expense of the SNP. Little beyond virtue signalling can be expected from either of those parties.
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The shadow of Tony Blair’s New Labour
For much of Blair’s time in office, constructive scrutiny of the government was led by the mainstream media, courted and cajoled by Peter Mandelson and Alastair Campbell.
There will be no repeat of this. The print and broadcast landscape has fragmented with many outlets more committed to campaigning than reporting fairly.
Like Barack Obama and Joe Biden in the US, Starmer should expect to come under vicious assault from day one. There will be no honeymoon.
After what will have been a “time for a change” election, the electorate may be inclined to give the new government the benefit of the doubt for a long period – but how long?
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The Labour leader says there wasn’t much ’emotional space’ for him growing up.
Starmer has repeatedly signalled that his government will need two terms to deliver real change. A landslide victory would provide the best basis on which to build.
In hindsight, Tony Blair has repeatedly bemoaned that his government got off to a slow start and failed to deliver as much as it could have done in its first term.
Far from planning for a landslide, his campaign team before his first victory were preoccupied with preparations for coalition with Paddy Ashdown’s Liberal Democrats.
Caution is one thing, making the best of your opportunities is another. The many voters telling the pollsters that they want a Labour victory must hope that someone, somewhere in Starmer’s rigid hierarchy is thinking hard about what they would do with a big win.
Tulip Siddiq has sought to distance herself from her aunt, deposed Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina, claiming they never spoke about politics.
But Sky News can reveal that in a blog written by the now City minister she boasted about how close they were politically and published photos of them together.
In posts written in late 2008 and early 2009, when she was a Labour activist, Ms Siddiq described campaigning with her aunt in Bangladesh’s general election and celebrating her victory.
Our disclosure coincides with a new report in The Times which reveals how the embattled MP’s Labour Party flyers were found in the palace in Dhaka that belonged to her aunt, who was ousted in a coup last year.
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Labour’s Tulip Siddiq risks losing job
The blog is headed: “Tulip Siddiq, member of the Labour Party action team in Bloomsbury and King’s Cross”, and in a post on January 11, 2009, Ms Siddiq told supporters: “I was really busy in Bangladesh as you probably gathered…
“I’ve put up photos of Sheikh Hasina’s post-election press conference at Bangladesh-China Friendship Conference Centre in Dhaka.
“The most significant element of this press conference for me was Sheikh Hasina’s insistence that all the political parties in Bangladesh need to work together for the welfare of the country.
“It is no secret that past governments have not worked with the other political parties and we need to change this trend.
“The prime minister emphasised that the Awami League does not support the ‘politics of vengeance’ which is encouraging so let’s hope that a new political culture is created this year.”
She added: “Here’s an action shot of me with the prime minister at the press conference. I’m not sure what I was saying but it probably wasn’t that interesting!”
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‘Tulip Siddiq will lose job if she broke rules’
In a post on January 21, 2009, she wrote: “I was fortunate enough to travel with Sheikh Hasina in her car during election day.
“The prime minister-elect (Prime Ministerial candidate at the time!) drove to several constituencies in Dhaka and stopped quickly at each one to meet the parliamentary candidate or speak to the voters.”
Describing traveling in her aunt’s car, she wrote: “You can see all my photos from election day here… I apologise for the poor quality of some of the pictures. I was taking photos from inside her car which is actually quite difficult!”
“You’ll also see a photo of Dhaka Central Jail. I took that photo because Sheikh Hasina told me that this jail was practically her second home for most of her childhood as her father, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, was under arrest for many years.
“She told me that she visited him with the rest of her family every weekend, so it was a very familiar landmark.”
Earlier, on December 29, 2008, under the heading “Victory!”, Ms Siddiq wrote: “The Awami League have won the elections by a landslide! Sheikh Hasina is the prime minister-elect! I am ecstatic!
“I’ve been on the campaign trail with Sheikh Hasina all day so I don’t really have the energy to write much more but I will do so tomorrow.
“However, I can’t resist uploading a couple of photos. This is Sheikh Hasina’s face just before she heard the results from an unwinnable constituency.
“Here she is after she heard that the Awami League hard work had paid off in that seat.”
The Times reports that political literature of Ms Siddiq, Sir Keir Starmer’s anti-corruption minister, was found at the heavily guarded palace in Dhaka, covered by dust and debris.
At the top of a staircase were items produced by Ms Sidddiq. One was a thank you note to local Labour Party members following her election as MP for Hampstead and Kilburn.
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Another was her annual report for 2022, inviting readers to learn about her help for those affected by the cost-of-living crisis.
The new disclosures will pile further pressure on Ms Siddiq and lead to further calls on the prime minister to sack her.
Many Labour MPs believe her ministerial career is now hanging by a thread.
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On Sky News earlier, cabinet minister Peter Kyle told Trevor Phillips Ms Siddiq was right to submit herself to an ethics investigation over corruption allegations and strongly hinted she would be sacked if found to have broken the ministerial code.
Asked whether she should stand down until she is cleared of impropriety, Mr Kyle said: “I think she’s done exactly the right thing. She’s referred herself that the inquiry needs to go through. I think that that’s the appropriate way forward.
“I’m giving it all the space it needs to do. I’ll be listening for the outcome as the Prime Minister will be.
“There was a process underway and we know full well it will be a functional process, and the outcomes of it will be stuck to by the prime minister and this government, a complete contrast to what we’ve had in the past.”
Sky News has approached Ms Siddiq and the Labour Party for comment.
There comes a point in the arc of most political scandals after which a resignation risks prompting more questions than it answers.
The danger for Tulip Siddiq – and by extension Sir Keir Starmer – is that threshold may about to be passed, if it hasn’t been already.
In other words, if she goes now, plenty will wonder why it didn’t happen sooner and why Downing Street allowed the story to gather pace and inflict further damage before acting.
The answer to this is partly because nothing has emerged so far that’s such an explicit rule break that it would trigger an automatic sacking or resignation.
That means the affair still resides – just about – in the box marked “looks bad” rather than the more sinister one marked “is bad”.
The standards adviser has been asked to “establish the facts” – a classic political technique to try and smother a story by announcing an inquiry.
Read more:
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Cabinet minister Peter Kyle told Sky News the outcome of that exercise “will be stuck to”, meaning the junior Treasury minister will be relieved of her responsibilities if a breach of the government’s code of conduct is identified.
But some within Labour are contrasting this case with the rapid resignation of Louise Haigh as transport secretary after Sky News revealed she had pleaded guilty to an offence in court shortly before becoming an MP.
They suggest the key difference is that Ms Haigh was relatively left-wing and at odds with some in Downing Street, while Ms Siddiq is a constituency neighbour and ally of the prime minister.
“Keir Starmer has been consistently ruthless against people perceived to be more on the left of the party and very lenient with people perceived to be more on the right of the party,” said former Jeremy Corbyn adviser Andrew Fisher.
A counter to this is that Ms Siddiq is not a cabinet minister.
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Minister suggests Siddiq could lose job
That said, she does oversee efforts to combat financial crime, money laundering and corruption – three activities she is now finding herself linked to, albeit in a different country.
The fact she pulled out from the chancellor’s trip to China this weekend also opens an easy attack line that the story is already stopping her from doing her job.
So where does this go now?
There is a chance that something may emerge that forces an immediate departure.
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Engaging the standards adviser may also backfire if a technical breach potentially relating to declarations or conflicts of interest is found.
But a third option is potentially most damaging for the government – that Ms Siddiq becomes politically paralysed by the volume of stories surfacing and is forced to step down simply to stem the flow.
The government will “mainline AI into the veins” of the UK, with plans being unveiled today by Sir Keir Starmer.
The prime minister is set to promise investment, jobs and economic growth due to a boom in the sector.
It comes as his government battles against allegations they are mismanaging the economy and stymied growth with the budget last autumn.
The government’s announcement claims that, if AI is “fully embraced”, it could bring £47bn to the economy every year.
And it says that £14bn is set to be invested by the private sector, bringing around 13,000 jobs.
The majority of those would be construction roles to build new data centres and other infrastructure, with a smaller number of technical jobs once the work is finished.
Sir Keir said: “Artificial Intelligence will drive incredible change in our country. From teachers personalising lessons, to supporting small businesses with their record-keeping, to speeding up planning applications, it has the potential to transform the lives of working people.
“But the AI industry needs a government that is on their side, one that won’t sit back and let opportunities slip through its fingers. And in a world of fierce competition, we cannot stand by. We must move fast and take action to win the global race.”
The prime minister added that he wants Britain to be “the world leader” in AI.
The government announcement said: “Today’s plan mainlines AI into the veins of this enterprising nation.”
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To achieve this, the government will implement all 50 recommendations made by Matt Clifford following his review last year.
This includes creating new AI “growth zones” – the first of which is set to be in Culham, Oxfordshire, where the UK’s Atomic Energy Authority is based.
These zones will get faster planning decisions and extra power infrastructure.
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Is the AI boom turning into a market bubble?
The government also wants to increase UK computing power 20-fold by 2030, including by building a brand-new supercomputer.
Labour cancelled a planned supercomputer when it entered office, as it claimed it wasn’t funded. The new venture is expected to be a joint public-private project.
The government says its plans will have three pillars. This includes laying the foundations with new AI growth zones and the new supercomputer.
The second is to boost AI take up by the public and private sectors. New pilots for AI in the public service are set to be announced, and Sir Keir has written to all cabinet ministers, telling them to drive AI adoption and growth.
And the third pillar is keeping ahead of the pack, with the government set to establish a “team” to keep the UK “at the forefront of emerging technology”.
The announcement was welcomed by a slew of technology bosses.
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Chris Lehane, the chief global affairs officer at OpenAI, which released ChatGPT, said: “The government’s AI action plan – led by the prime minister and [Science] Secretary Peter Kyle – recognises where AI development is headed and sets the UK on the right path to benefit from its growth.
“The UK has an enormous national resource in the talent of its people, institutions and businesses which together, can leverage AI to advance the country’s national interest.”
The shadow secretary for science, innovation and technology, Alan Mak, said: “Labour’s plan will not support the UK to become a tech and science superpower. They’re delivering analogue government in a digital age.
“Shaping a successful AI future requires investment, but in the six months leading up to this plan, Labour cut £1.3bn in funding for Britain’s first next-generation supercomputer and AI research whilst imposing a national insurance jobs tax that will cost business in the digital sector £1.66bn.
“AI does have the potential to transform public services, but Labour’s economic mismanagement and uninspiring plan will mean Britain is left behind.”
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