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Just a few years ago, the bitcoin halving was something celebrated by only the earliest cryptocurrency lovers, who swore by it as a core feature of a revolutionary, anti-establishment deflationary asset.

Now, bitcoin has been embraced by the biggest institutions on Wall Street and continues to draw curious retail investors in each cycle. From the gleeful to the perplexed to the unimpressed, crypto market watchers know this halving is coming and that it must mean something good for bitcoin.

This is a technical event that takes place on the bitcoin network roughly every four years, cutting the supply of the cryptocurrency in half to create a scarcity effect that makes it like “digital gold.” Historically, it sets the stage for a new cycle and bull run – but this one’s a little different.

“The halving is the ultimate geek event for bitcoiners, but the 2024 iteration takes it up a notch because reduced supply combined with fresh ETF demand creates an explosive cocktail,” said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto exchange Nexo. “What makes this halving unique is bitcoin has already surpassed the last cycle’s high — something it’s never done ahead of the quadrennial event — which makes trying to forecast the length and ferocity of this cycle much trickier.”

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Bitcoin (BTC), entering its fourth halving period next week.

After the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halvings, the bitcoin price ran up about 93x, 30x and 8x, respectively, from its halving day price to its cycle top. Past performance isn’t indicative of future returns, and some even warn that in dealing with a smaller supply every four years, the days of such a big impact on the bitcoin price are likely already behind us.

However, Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin, said “if there was ever a moment to be a little extra optimistic” about returns after the having, it’s this year.

“This bitcoin bull cycle — which kicked into gear earlier because of the January approval of the spot ETFs — might well be shorter and more explosive, culminating in a peak in late 2024 or early 2025,” Trenchev added.

Whether you seek a deeper understanding of bitcoin as a new, deflationary asset, or you simply want to speculate on the bitcoin price in the coming weeks, here’s what you need to know about the halving and its potential impact on the market.

What’s happening?

The halving occurs when incentives for bitcoin miners are cut by half, as mandated by the code of the bitcoin blockchain. It’s scheduled to take place every 210,000 blocks, or roughly four years.

As a refresher, miners run the machines that do the work (essentially solving a very complex math problem) of recording new blocks of bitcoin transactions and adding them to the global ledger, also known as the blockchain.

Miners have two incentives to mine: transaction fees that are paid voluntarily by senders (for faster settlement) and mining rewards — 6.25 newly created bitcoins, or about $437,500 as of Thursday morning. Sometime between April 18 and April 21, the mining rewards will shrink to 3.125 bitcoins. The incentive was initially 50 bitcoins, but that was reduced to 6.25 in 2020.

The reduction in the block rewards leads to a reduction in the supply of bitcoin by slowing the pace at which new coins are created, helping maintain the idea of bitcoin as digital gold — whose finite supply helps determine its value. Eventually, the number of bitcoins in circulation will cap at 21 million, per the bitcoin code.

Market impact now and later

The halving isn’t like an on-off switch that gets flipped at a specific time. Indeed, it’s reasonable to think that the day will come and go without much action in the market. Of course, there certainly could be volatility driven by speculators who may be trading on the event. Swan’s Lubka warned that investors shouldn’t confuse that with the technical change taking place.

“I don’t think we see a big move either way, but even if there were a big move, it’d have nothing to do mechanically with the halving,” he said. However, “in the months that follow, every day there [will be] something like $30 million in bitcoin less being sold. That can build up fast and make an impact over that time period.”

That $30 million assumes a bitcoin price of about $70,000.

The one big thing investors need to understand about the halving and its potential impact on the market, Lubka said, is that miners sell a lot of the bitcoin they get paid in order to pay their everyday bills.

“These are very costly enterprises that have to consume a lot of energy and other things to do their job,” he said. “Miners are constantly selling the bitcoin that they mine just to cover costs. When that gets cut in half, there’s no two ways about it: There is half as much bitcoin being sold from the miners.”

“They are the most regular sellers,” he added. “Some hedge fund could sell its position … but miners are selling every day, every week, every month in predictable quantity — and that pressure gets cut in half.”

Diminishing returns from halving to halving

Bitcoin has always shot to the moon in the months following its halving — that’s what makes it such a celebrated day among enthusiasts. However, each time the mining reward and supply of bitcoin has shrunk, so have the returns from the halving day to the cycle top.

“Guessing the endgame for bitcoin after each halving is the ultimate sport,” said Trenchev. “What we do know is each post-halving bull run has seen diminishing returns. … Even a measly 2x will put bitcoin around $130,000 — not to be sniffed at.”

That trend could reverse this year, Lubka said, although it’d be the result not of the planned supply shock but rather of the new demand shock. Thanks to the advent of bitcoin exchange-traded funds, demand for the cryptocurrency is bigger than ever, according to CryptoQuant.

The data shows that historically, “whale” demand for bitcoin spikes after each halving, driving prices higher. This year, however, that whale demand (which includes OG bitcoiners, new investors and bitcoin ETF holders) is already at an all-time high, and the block reward hasn’t even been slashed yet.

“The once-significant influence of bitcoin halving on prices has diminished, as the new issuance of bitcoin gets smaller relative to the total amount of bitcoin that is available for sale,” said Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. “In contrast … bitcoin demand growth seems to be the key driver for higher prices after the halving.”

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OpenAI signs $38 billion compute deal with Amazon, partnering with cloud leader for first time

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OpenAI signs  billion compute deal with Amazon, partnering with cloud leader for first time

OpenAI signs $38B infrastructure deal with Amazon Web Service

OpenAI has signed a deal to buy $38 billion worth of capacity from Amazon Web Services, its first contract with the leader in cloud infrastructure and the latest sign that the $500 billion artificial intelligence startup is no longer reliant on Microsoft.

Under the agreement announced on Monday, OpenAI will immediately begin running workloads on AWS infrastructure, tapping hundreds of thousands of Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) in the U.S., with plans to expand capacity in the coming years.

Amazon stock climbed about 5% following the news.

The first phase of the deal will use existing AWS data centers, and Amazon will eventually build out additional infrastructure for OpenAI.

“It’s completely separate capacity that we’re putting down,” said Dave Brown, vice president of compute and machine learning services at AWS, in an interview. “Some of that capacity is already available, and OpenAI is making use of that.”

Read more CNBC Amazon coverage

OpenAI has been on a dealmaking spree of late, announcing roughly $1.4 trillion worth of buildout agreements with companies including Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle and Google — prompting skeptics to warn of an AI bubble and question whether the country has the power and resources needed to turn the ambitious promises into reality.

Until this year, OpenAI had an exclusive cloud agreement with Microsoft, which first backed the company in 2019 and has invested a total of $13 billion. In January, Microsoft said it would no longer be the exclusive cloud provider for OpenAI, and was moving to an arrangement where it would have right of first refusal for new requests.

Last week, Microsoft’s preferential status expired under its newly negotiated commercial terms with OpenAI, freeing the ChatGPT creator to partner more widely with the other hyperscalers. Even before that, OpenAI forged cloud deals with Oracle and Google, but AWS is by far the market leader.

“Scaling frontier AI requires massive, reliable compute,” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in Monday’s release. “Our partnership with AWS strengthens the broad compute ecosystem that will power this next era and bring advanced AI to everyone.”

OpenAI will still be spending heavily with Microsoft, reaffirming that commitment by saying last week that it will purchase an incremental $250 billion of Azure services.

Amazon's $11B data center goes live: Here's an inside look

For Amazon, the pact is significant both in the size and scale of the deal itself and because the cloud giant has close ties to OpenAI rival Anthropic. Amazon has invested billions of dollars in Anthropic, and is currently constructing an $11 billion data center campus in New Carlisle, Indiana, that’s designed exclusively for Anthropic workloads.

“The breadth and immediate availability of optimized compute demonstrates why AWS is uniquely positioned to support OpenAI’s vast AI workloads,” AWS CEO Matt Garman said in the release.

In its earnings report last week, Amazon reported more than 20% year-over-year revenue growth at AWS, beating analyst estimates. But growth was faster at Microsoft and Google, which reported cloud expansion of 40% and 34%, respectively.

Starting on Nvidia

The current agreement with OpenAI is explicitly for use of Nvidia chips, including two popular Blackwell models, but there’s potential to incorporate additional silicon down the road. Amazon’s custom-built Trainium chip is being used by Anthropic in the new facility.

“We like Trainium because we’re able to give customers something that gives them better price performance and honestly gives them choice,” Brown said, adding that he can’t provide any details on “anything we’ve done with OpenAI on Trainium at this point.”

The infrastructure will support both inference — such as powering ChatGPT’s real-time responses — and training of next-generation frontier models. OpenAI can expand with AWS as needed over the next seven years, but no plans beyond 2026 have been finalized.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman (L) shakes hands with Microsoft Chief Technology Officer and Executive VP of Artificial Intelligence Kevin Scott during the Microsoft Build conference at the Seattle Convention Center Summit Building in Seattle, Washington, U.S., on May 21, 2024.

Jason Redmond | Afp | Getty Images

OpenAI’s foundation models, including so-called open-weight options, are already available on Bedrock, AWS’s managed service for accessing leading AI systems.

Companies including Peloton, Thomson Reuters, Comscore, and Triomics use OpenAI models on AWS for tasks ranging from coding and mathematical problem solving to scientific analysis and agentic workflows.

Monday’s announcement establishes a more direct relationship.

“As part of this deal, OpenAI is a customer of AWS,” Brown said. “They’ve committed to buying compute capacity from us, and we’re charging OpenAI for that capacity. It’s very, very straightforward.”

For OpenAI, the most highly valued private AI company, the AWS agreement is another step in getting ready to eventually go public. By diversifying its cloud partners and locking in long-term capacity across providers, OpenAI is signaling both independence and operational maturity.

Altman acknowledged in a recent livestream that an IPO is “the most likely path” given OpenAI’s capital needs. CFO Sarah Friar has echoed that sentiment, framing the recent corporate restructuring as a necessary step toward going public.

WATCH: AWS CEO Matt Garman on Amazon’s massive new AI data center for Anthropic

AWS CEO Matt Garman on Amazon's massive new AI data center for Anthropic, Trainium chips and more

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MongoDB CEO Dev Ittycheria steps down, replaced by Cloudflare executive CJ Desai

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MongoDB CEO Dev Ittycheria steps down, replaced by Cloudflare executive CJ Desai

MongoDB CEO Dev Ittycheria arrives at the Allen & Co. Media and Technology Conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, on July 9, 2025.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Database software maker MongoDB said on Monday that CEO Dev Ittycheria is stepping down from the top job after an 11-year run.

Chirantan “CJ” Desai, who has spent the past year as president of product and engineering at Cloudflare, is replacing Ittycheria, effective Nov. 10, MongoDB said. Ittycheria will remain on the company’s board.

“Earlier this year, I would say as part of our normal succession planning process, the board asked me about my long-term plans and whether I could commit for another five years as CEO,” Ittycheria told CNBC in an interview. “I thought long and hard about it, and I talked to my family, I talked to the board and ultimately realized I couldn’t make that kind of decision.”

Before joining MongoDB, Ittycheria was president of BMC, which bought his company BladeLogic for $854 million in 2008. As BladeLogic’s co-founder and CEO, Ittycheria took the company public in 2007. He’s also been an investor at venture firms OpenView and Greylock.

Ittycheria led MongoDB’s IPO in 2017, three years after taking the helm. The company won over individual software developers thanks to its database’s architecture that could store a variety of data in documents, challenging market incumbents like Oracle.

Under Ittycheria, the company prioritized cloud subscriptions, landed multi-year deals, partnered with rival cloud providers Amazon and Microsoft and expanded the software’s capabilities into generative artificial intelligence.

MongoDB’s stock closed on Friday at $359.82, representing a fifteenfold gain since the IPO and lifting the company’s market cap to almost $30 billion. MongoDB’s net loss in the July quarter narrowed to $47 million from $54.5 million a year earlier, while revenue rose 24% to $591 million.

Cloudflare said in a filing on Thursday that Desai would step down on Nov. 7, to become CEO “at another notable, publicly-traded company.” Desai previously served as operating chief at ServiceNow. He resigned in July 2024, after the software company found a policy violation with the hiring of the U.S. Army’s chief information officer. Previously Desai held leadership positions at EMC and Symantec.

“We talked to people close to ServiceNow, as well as other people who know CJ really well, and we felt very, very comfortable that CJ is the right person to lead MongoDB in this next era,” Ittycheria said.

Desai, whose first job out of college was at Oracle, said he will split his time between New York and the San Francisco area.

MongoDB also said it expects to exceed the high end of its guidance ranges for revenue and adjusted earnings per share in the fiscal third quarter. The top end of its range was 79 cents per share in earnings, and $592 million in revenue.

Desai said he’s “looking forward to grow MongoDB to $5 billion-plus in a durable, profitable way, in revenues, and most importantly, to be the gold standard for modern database technology, no matter what kind of workloads exist.” He did not offer a timeline for the revenue goal.

Executives will discuss the leadership change on a conference call with analysts at 10 a.m. ET.

WATCH: MongoDB CEO Dev Ittycheria on Q2 results: The opportunity in front of us is massive

MongoDB CEO Dev Ittycheria on Q2 results: The opportunity in front of us is massive

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Nvidia stock climbs 3% as U.S. approves chip sale to the UAE under Microsoft deal

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Nvidia stock climbs 3% as U.S. approves chip sale to the UAE under Microsoft deal

Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, speaks during the 2025 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, October 31, 2025.

Kim Soo-hyeon | Reuters

Microsoft said Monday it has secured export licenses to ship Nvidia chips to the United Arab Emirates in a move that could accelerate the Gulf’s lofty AI ambitions.

The tech giant said it is the first company under U.S. President Donald Trump‘s administration to secure such licenses from the Commerce Department and that the approval, granted in September, was based on “updated and stringent technology safeguards.”

The licenses enable the firm to ship the equivalent of 60,400 additional A100 chips, involving tech darling Nvidia’s more advanced GB300 GPUs.

“While the chips are powerful and the numbers are large, more important is their positive impact across the UAE,” Microsoft said in a blog post. “We’re using these GPUs to provide access to advanced AI models from OpenAI, Anthropic, open-source providers, and Microsoft itself.”

Nvidia shares climbed 3% Monday. Microsoft stock rose slightly.

Azad Zangana, head of GCC macroeconomic analysis at Oxford Economics, said in a note that Nvidia’s chips are “crucial” for the UAE’s push to be a major global player in AI.

“Access to the world’s leading AI chips provides the hardware that will give developers the leading edge that is needed in an incredibly competitive global landscape,” Zangana wrote.

U.S. reportedly approves several billion dollars of Nvidia chip sales to UAE

There is a “very important” relationship between the UAE and U.S. governments that has spanned multiple administrations, Microsoft President Brad Smith told CNBC’s Dan Murphy at the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi.

“We’re very grateful to the Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and the work that he has championed to enable export licenses to be made available to us,” Smith said. “That builds as well on the relationships we had with Secretary [Marco] Rubio when he was in the Senate and Democrats as well. [It] takes two parties to govern, and we keep that in mind.”

Microsoft also announced it will be increasing its investment in UAE, bringing its total contribution to $15.2 billion by the end of this decade.

That includes a $1.5 billion equity investment in AI firm G42 and more than $5.5 billion in capital expenses for the expansion of Microsoft’s AI and cloud infrastructure projects in the region.

“We’re really investing in trust, and I think it’s that combination of technology, talent and trust that you’re seeing come together here in the UAE, around AI, around technology, but really the future of the whole economy,” Smith said.

Microsoft president: 'Huge' challenge and great opportunity as global economy enters a new phase

— CNBC’s Dan Murphy contributed to this report.

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