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Just a few years ago, the bitcoin halving was something celebrated by only the earliest cryptocurrency lovers, who swore by it as a core feature of a revolutionary, anti-establishment deflationary asset.

Now, bitcoin has been embraced by the biggest institutions on Wall Street and continues to draw curious retail investors in each cycle. From the gleeful to the perplexed to the unimpressed, crypto market watchers know this halving is coming and that it must mean something good for bitcoin.

This is a technical event that takes place on the bitcoin network roughly every four years, cutting the supply of the cryptocurrency in half to create a scarcity effect that makes it like “digital gold.” Historically, it sets the stage for a new cycle and bull run – but this one’s a little different.

“The halving is the ultimate geek event for bitcoiners, but the 2024 iteration takes it up a notch because reduced supply combined with fresh ETF demand creates an explosive cocktail,” said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto exchange Nexo. “What makes this halving unique is bitcoin has already surpassed the last cycle’s high — something it’s never done ahead of the quadrennial event — which makes trying to forecast the length and ferocity of this cycle much trickier.”

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Bitcoin (BTC), entering its fourth halving period next week.

After the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halvings, the bitcoin price ran up about 93x, 30x and 8x, respectively, from its halving day price to its cycle top. Past performance isn’t indicative of future returns, and some even warn that in dealing with a smaller supply every four years, the days of such a big impact on the bitcoin price are likely already behind us.

However, Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin, said “if there was ever a moment to be a little extra optimistic” about returns after the having, it’s this year.

“This bitcoin bull cycle — which kicked into gear earlier because of the January approval of the spot ETFs — might well be shorter and more explosive, culminating in a peak in late 2024 or early 2025,” Trenchev added.

Whether you seek a deeper understanding of bitcoin as a new, deflationary asset, or you simply want to speculate on the bitcoin price in the coming weeks, here’s what you need to know about the halving and its potential impact on the market.

What’s happening?

The halving occurs when incentives for bitcoin miners are cut by half, as mandated by the code of the bitcoin blockchain. It’s scheduled to take place every 210,000 blocks, or roughly four years.

As a refresher, miners run the machines that do the work (essentially solving a very complex math problem) of recording new blocks of bitcoin transactions and adding them to the global ledger, also known as the blockchain.

Miners have two incentives to mine: transaction fees that are paid voluntarily by senders (for faster settlement) and mining rewards — 6.25 newly created bitcoins, or about $437,500 as of Thursday morning. Sometime between April 18 and April 21, the mining rewards will shrink to 3.125 bitcoins. The incentive was initially 50 bitcoins, but that was reduced to 6.25 in 2020.

The reduction in the block rewards leads to a reduction in the supply of bitcoin by slowing the pace at which new coins are created, helping maintain the idea of bitcoin as digital gold — whose finite supply helps determine its value. Eventually, the number of bitcoins in circulation will cap at 21 million, per the bitcoin code.

Market impact now and later

The halving isn’t like an on-off switch that gets flipped at a specific time. Indeed, it’s reasonable to think that the day will come and go without much action in the market. Of course, there certainly could be volatility driven by speculators who may be trading on the event. Swan’s Lubka warned that investors shouldn’t confuse that with the technical change taking place.

“I don’t think we see a big move either way, but even if there were a big move, it’d have nothing to do mechanically with the halving,” he said. However, “in the months that follow, every day there [will be] something like $30 million in bitcoin less being sold. That can build up fast and make an impact over that time period.”

That $30 million assumes a bitcoin price of about $70,000.

The one big thing investors need to understand about the halving and its potential impact on the market, Lubka said, is that miners sell a lot of the bitcoin they get paid in order to pay their everyday bills.

“These are very costly enterprises that have to consume a lot of energy and other things to do their job,” he said. “Miners are constantly selling the bitcoin that they mine just to cover costs. When that gets cut in half, there’s no two ways about it: There is half as much bitcoin being sold from the miners.”

“They are the most regular sellers,” he added. “Some hedge fund could sell its position … but miners are selling every day, every week, every month in predictable quantity — and that pressure gets cut in half.”

Diminishing returns from halving to halving

Bitcoin has always shot to the moon in the months following its halving — that’s what makes it such a celebrated day among enthusiasts. However, each time the mining reward and supply of bitcoin has shrunk, so have the returns from the halving day to the cycle top.

“Guessing the endgame for bitcoin after each halving is the ultimate sport,” said Trenchev. “What we do know is each post-halving bull run has seen diminishing returns. … Even a measly 2x will put bitcoin around $130,000 — not to be sniffed at.”

That trend could reverse this year, Lubka said, although it’d be the result not of the planned supply shock but rather of the new demand shock. Thanks to the advent of bitcoin exchange-traded funds, demand for the cryptocurrency is bigger than ever, according to CryptoQuant.

The data shows that historically, “whale” demand for bitcoin spikes after each halving, driving prices higher. This year, however, that whale demand (which includes OG bitcoiners, new investors and bitcoin ETF holders) is already at an all-time high, and the block reward hasn’t even been slashed yet.

“The once-significant influence of bitcoin halving on prices has diminished, as the new issuance of bitcoin gets smaller relative to the total amount of bitcoin that is available for sale,” said Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. “In contrast … bitcoin demand growth seems to be the key driver for higher prices after the halving.”

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Amazon delays first Kuiper internet satellite launch due to bad weather

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Amazon delays first Kuiper internet satellite launch due to bad weather

United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket carrying the first two demonstration satellites for Amazon’s Project Kuiper broadband internet constellation stands ready for launch on pad 41 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on October 5, 2023 in Cape Canaveral, Florida, United States.

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Amazon delayed the launch of its Kuiper internet satellites due to poor weather conditions on Wednesday night.

A United Launch Alliance rocket carrying 27 Kuiper satellites was set to lift off from a launchpad in Cape Canaveral, Florida, but ULA said it couldn’t continue countdown operations as “stubborn cumulus clouds” and heavy winds pushed the launch outside its planned window, according to a livestream.

“Weather is observed and forecast NO GO for liftoff within the remaining launch window at Cape Canaveral this evening,” ULA said. The company said it will provide a new launch date at a later point.

Six years ago Amazon unveiled its plans to build a constellation of internet satellites in low Earth orbit, a region of space that’s within 1,200 miles of Earth’s surface. The company aims to sell high-speed, low-latency internet to consumers, corporations and governments, offering connections through square-shaped terminals. Commercial service is expected to come online later this year.

Amazon is racing to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink, the dominant player in the market, with 8,000 satellites already up in the air. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk now has a central role in the White House as one of President Donald Trump’s top advisors, overseeing the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. Since Musk took on the role, Starlink’s footprint has increased within the federal government.

The clock is ticking for Amazon to meet a deadline set by the Federal Communications Commission, which requires the company to have half of its total constellation, or 1,618 satellites, up in the air by July 2026.

Once it completes its first launch, Amazon expects to ramp up its production, processing and deployment rates. It’s begun prepping satellites for its next mission, which will also hitch a ride on one of ULA’s Atlas V rockets.

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Google reverses policy telling workers not to discuss DOJ antitrust case

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Google reverses policy telling workers not to discuss DOJ antitrust case

Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai meets with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw, Poland, on February 13, 2025.

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Google has reversed a policy forbidding employees from discussing its antitrust woes following a settlement with workers. 

The company sent a notice to U.S. employees last week saying it rescinded “the rule requesting that workers refrain from commenting internally or externally about the on-going antitrust lawsuit filed against Google by the U.S. Department of Justice,” according to correspondence viewed by CNBC.

Google settled with the Alphabet Workers Union, which represents company employees and contractors, according to the U.S. National Labor Relations Board, or NLRB. The settlement and policy reversal mark a major victory for Google staffers, who have seen increased censorship on subjects such as politics, litigation and defense contracts by the search giant since 2019. 

The U.S. Department of Justice filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google in 2020, alleging that the company has kept its share of the general search market by creating strong barriers to entry and a feedback loop that sustained its dominance.

Google said it “will not announce or maintain overbroad rules or policies that restrict your right to comment, internally or externally, about whether and/or how the on-going antitrust lawsuit filed against Google by the U.S. Department of Justice may impact your terms and conditions of employment,” according to last week’s notice. 

The policy change was first reported by The New York Times

The reversal comes as Google and the DOJ prepare to return to the courtroom for their scheduled remedies trial on April 21. The DOJ has said it is considering structural remedies, including breaking up Google’s Chrome web browser, which it argues gives Google an unfair advantage in the search market.

A U.S. District Court judge ruled in August that Google illegally held a monopoly in the search market. Google said it would appeal the decision. The DOJ doubled down on its calls for a breakup in a March filing.

Following the August ruling, Kent Walker, Google’s president of global affairs, sent a companywide email directing employees to “refrain from commenting on this case, both internally and externally.”

Shortly after, the Alphabet Workers Union filed an unfair labor practice charge against Google with the NLRB. The union alleged that Walker’s message was an “overly broad directive” and said that a breakup could impact workers’ roles. The NLRB in March ruled that Google must allow workers to speak on such topics.

Google’s settlement states that the National Labor Relations Act gives employees the right to form, join or assist a union. It notes that Google is not rescinding its prior clarification that states employees may not speak on behalf of Google on this matter without approval from the company. The settlement also adds that Google will not interfere with, restrain or coerce workers in the exercise of their rights.

Despite the settlement, spokesperson Courtenay Mencini said Google did not agree with the NLRB’s ruling. 

“To avoid lengthy litigation, we agreed to remind employees that they have the right to talk about their employment, as they’ve always been free to and regularly do,” Mencini said in a statement to CNBC.

The settlement by Google comes at a “crucial moment” ahead of the remedies trial, the Alphabet Worker’s Union said Monday. 

“We think the potential remedies from this trial could have impact on our wages, working conditions and terms of employment,” said Stephen McMurtry, communications chair of the Alphabet Workers Union-CWA, told CNBC.

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Apple has best day since 1998 on Trump’s 90-day tariff pause

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Apple has best day since 1998 on Trump's 90-day tariff pause

Apple CEO Tim Cook inspects the new iPhone 16 during an Apple special event at Apple headquarters on September 09, 2024 in Cupertino, California. 

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Apple shares skyrocketed 15% on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on his administration’s “reciprocal tariffs,” which would have affected the company’s production locations in Vietnam, India, and Thailand.

The rally added over $400 billion to Apple’s market cap, which now stands just under $3 trillion. It was Apple’s best day since January 1998, when late founder Steve Jobs was the interim CEO and three years before the company unveiled the first iPod. At the time, Apple’s market cap was close to $3 billion.

Apple has been the most prominent name to get whacked by Trump’s tariffs. Before Wednesday, it was on its worst four-day trading stretch since 2000. Investors worried about Apple’s outlook because the company still makes the majority of its revenue from selling physical devices, which need to be imported into the U.S.

Most of Apple’s iPhones and other hardware products are still made in China, which was not exempted from tariffs on Wednesday. In fact, Trump increased tariffs on China to 125% on Wednesday, up from 54%.

China issued an 84% tariff on U.S. goods this week, raising the possibility that Apple could get caught up in a trade war and lose ground in China, its third-largest market by sales.

Apple has worked to diversify its supply chain to lessen reliance on China in recent years.

On Wednesday, tariffs on Vietnam were reduced from 46% to 10%, and tariffs on India were cut 26% to 10%, which raises the possibility that Apple will be able to serve a large percentage of its U.S. customers from factories outside of China with lower tariffs.

Stocks skyrocketed across the board on Wednesday after Trump announced the tariff pause. The Nasdaq Composite climbed over 12%, its second-best day ever.

Apple hasn’t commented publicly on Trump’s tariffs, but CEO Tim Cook will likely address the topic on an earnings call on May 1.

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