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We are two weeks into the 2024 MLB season, and teams have played about a dozen of their 162 games. While that isn’t enough for bold declarations, we’re not about to let that stop us.

As we do every year at this time, we asked our MLB experts to go all-in on one thing they’ve noticed this season by making a prediction based on the small sample size. They were allowed to pick anything they wanted with two ground rules: It had to be bold, and it had to be something they actually believe could happen.

Some of our predictors brought the heat, while others have taken a mild approach, so we have taken the liberty of ranking the predictions — and identifying their hot sauce equivalent.


Take a walk on the mild side

Kiley McDaniel: Four pitchers will shake up the Cy Young leaderboard

I’ll pick some pitcher breakouts. Royals LHP Cole Ragans will post a 4+ WAR season and finish in the Top 8 in the American League Cy Young voting. Garrett Crochet, Jared Jones and Chris Sale will all post 3+ WAR seasons with Jones grabbing a top 5 National League Rookie of the Year finish. Ragans broke out last year and I think he’ll build on that with more innings. Crochet has made three big league starts and Jones has made just two, but I’m pushing my chips to the middle that what they’ve done is for real. I’m hoping Crochet will post enough innings to hold up his end of my prediction. That is also the question for Sale, but his velocity so far this season is his best since 2018.

Hot sauce equivalent: The house sampler. Individually, any of these could have seemed bold. But you’ve left yourself the easy out of simply picking the one that comes true to point out you were right.


Eric Karabell: The Dodgers will make RBI history

No MLB team has had more than five players with 100 RBI in one season. The 1936 Yankees were the last with five, thanks to a lineup featuring Lou Gehrig and Joe DiMaggio. Last season’s Dodgers became the fourth team this century with four such players — and this year, I predict they’ll match those Yankees with five. This is an historic lineup off to a great start, led by Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, and there will be ample run producing scenarios for Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez and Max Muncy.

Hot sauce equivalent: Frank’s Red Hot. Look, we appreciate the classics too, and you caught our attention with a mention of names like Gehrig and DiMaggio. But at the end of the day, you are predicting one more player to reach a milestone that four players in the same lineup did a year ago — and that’s more mild than spicy.


We’re heating up

Buster Olney: The Mets won’t contend again this year — or any time soon.

What we’re seeing early this year are red flags that, despite carrying the highest payroll in baseball, the Mets may not be competitive this year — but more importantly, also not for years to come. Their rotation is currently built on older veterans signed to short-term deals, and their farm system is largely void of high-end pitching prospects. By the time the Mets can rebuild their organizational pitching, their core position-player group could be on its collective downslope. They are off to a slow start, and what we see on the horizon looks bleak, too.

Hot sauce equivalent: Homemade. This hot take doesn’t follow a recipe you’d see for sale in any store, but you took it and made it your own.


AJ Mass: The New York Mets will make the playoffs in 2024 … And the New York Yankees will not.

Are the Yankees a better team than the Mets? Absolutely, but they also play in a division where (as of April 10) all five teams were at .500 or better and it’s likely to be a tight race all season long. Plus, they’ve already lost Jonathan Loáisiga for the season from a not-so-scary bullpen. Despite starting off 10-2, five of those wins were one-run affairs, and this stacked lineup has already been shut out twice.

Meanwhile, Flushing’s Finest spotted the rest of the NL five games to start the season (two of those losses coming in extras) and the Mets are still sitting just two games back of the last wild-card spot. Edwin Díaz is all the way back and there’s no “sword of Damocles” hanging over this patchwork rotation where the status of one injured ace could dash all postseason hopes.

Yankees win 90 and start golfing early. Mets win 83 and still see October action.

Hot sauce equivalent: Chili lime. You took two flavors we weren’t quite sure went together and yet you made them work. The only reason this isn’t spicier is, as you admit, this is more about circumstance than the performance of either team.


Paul Hembekides: Anthony Volpe will produce more value in his age-23 season than Derek Jeter did.

In 1997, a 23-year-old Jeter — playing his second full season — slashed .291/.370/.405 (103 OPS+) with 116 runs (4th in AL) and 190 hits (3rd in AL). As (about) a neutral defender at shortstop, Jeter generated 5.0 WAR for a Yankees team that finished 96-66. Volpe is poised to outperform him this season. The glove at shortstop already plays up (+18 career DRS) and his approach at the plate looks dramatically improved. Volpe is making better swing decisions and producing more hard opposite-field contact. He produced 3.3 WAR in an up-and-down rookie season, a figure he could double as a sophomore.

Hot sauce equivalent: Sriracha. Comparing a potential future star favorably to a legend from his team’s past has a certain sweetness to it — and a little kick.


It’s getting hot in here

Bradford Doolittle: The Detroit Tigers will win AL Central

The peak temperature for this take is a little tepid since the division is so bad, but there is a lot of good stuff happening in Detroit. It is off to a good start on the strength of good pitching and great defense. And there are many reasons why the Tigers should get better as the season goes along. Their four under-25 regulars — Spencer Torkelson, Colt Keith, Riley Greene, Parker Meadows — haven’t hit yet but should. If you follow the prospect reports, the news gets really exciting with Jace Jung and other high-upside types pushing their way upward. Beware the Bengal.

Hot sauce equivalent: Hell Fire Detroit Poblano. Picking any team to win the AL Central — outside of the White Sox, of course — is on the mild side, but we like to see the rising Tigers raising the heat in Motown.


Alden Gonzalez: The Pirates will win the NL Central

Granted, the NL Central isn’t the greatest of divisions. But FanGraphs’ projections had the Pirates — 32 years removed from their last division title and perpetually cheap under owner Bob Nutting — finishing last on Opening Day. What about them finishing first? A lot will have to go right, of course. Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes need to emerge as legitimate stars. Henry Davis needs to take major steps in his development. Paul Skenes needs to come up and thrive in the rotation alongside Jared Jones. The supporting group of Bryan Reynolds, David Bednar, Mitch Keller and Jack Suwinski, among others, needs to remain healthy and productive. And, most improbably, ownership needs to greenlight midseason additions to push the Bucs over the hump. It’s a lot. But they don’t call them mild takes.

Hot sauce equivalent: Hammajack OG. Another Central Division pick, another hometown hot sauce.


Jesse Rogers: The White Sox match the 1962 Mets with 120 losses

As hard as it is to win 120 games, it’s just as hard to lose that many. But hear me out: The White Sox turned over their entire pitching staff yet that’s the best part of their team right now. Or should we say, the least worst part of their team. They can’t hit a lick and with Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert down with injuries, and there is no end to their offensive futility in sight.

Finally, new general manager Chris Getz is going to keep ripping the team apart at the seams come July. If the White Sox ever get off that 120 loss pace, they’ll be right back on it over the final two months.

Hot sauce equivalent: Garlic Pepper. Predicting tough times on the South Side this season is as mild as it gets … But 120 losses? That’s got some spice — along with some extra salt.


Feel the fire

Tim Keown: Mike Trout will have a 10-WAR season

The first two weeks of the season feel like a re-introduction: Remember Mike Trout has morphed into remember this Mike Trout? Short sample size and all, he’s back to being the best player in baseball. He’s had three 10-WAR seasons in his career, the last in 2018, and he’s going to have another one this season, in his 14th year in the big leagues, in the year he turns 33. He hasn’t played a full season since 2019, but he’s going to stay healthy, and the Ron Washington-led Angels will finish over .500.

Hot sauce equivalent: Habanero. In a sea of flavors, this is a traditional pick you might have forgotten about that still carries plenty of heat.


Jorge Castillo: Trout won’t finish the season with the Angels

Here are Trout’s career postseason numbers: 1-for-12 with three walks in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Royals in 2014. That’s it. And that’s a travesty. Trout has been loyal to a fault to a franchise that figured out how to not reach the playoffs with two of the five best players in the world. Now Shohei Ohtani is gone, and Trout’s loyalty might be running on E. Trout’s comments in spring training about the Angels’ offseason were illuminating. He didn’t stick to his usual pacific script. No “the team is going in the right direction” like in past years. This time he admitted that he was “pushing, pushing, pushing” owner Arte Moreno and team president John Carpino to make a splash in free agency. That didn’t happen. It isn’t a stretch to think that Trout publicly acknowledging his advocacy is a tell that he isn’t pleased. Ultimately, he’ll have to not only waive his no-trade clause but push, push, push Moreno, who is allergic to rebuilds, to trade him. If the Angels play as expected — and Trout stays healthy — the door will open for Trout to advocate for himself to have a chance to play in October again.

Hot sauce equivalent: Ghost pepper. We just had Angels fans hyped for a return to MVP level for Trout — and then here you are predicting he’ll ghost the Halos midseason.


Tristan Cockcroft: Bobby Witt Jr. wins an MVP, while almost single-handedly leading his Royals to a division title

The AL Central is going to be much more fun this year — well, if your style of “fun” is an 85-win division champion — and Witt and the Royals will play a huge part in why. Witt is already taking the league by storm, en route to his joining Barry Bonds as the only ever 40/40 Gold Glove Award winners.

I was all-in on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as my preseason MVP; I’m pivoting now as I picked the wrong Junior!

And Witt’s Royals — behind the underrated Maikel Garcia, Seth Lugo, MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Cole Ragans and Brady Singer — will play their first October baseball in nine years. What’ll help: Realizing their extreme need to upgrade their bullpen, and midseason deals for Tanner Scott and Carlos Estevez that will provide a boost.

Hot sauce equivalent: K.C. hot BBQ — with a scorpion pepper sprinkled on top. With a deal keeping him in town through 2034, Witt could become as associated with Kansas City as award-winning barbecue so picking him to win MVP this year isn’t that bold. But then you added flames to the fire by picking a team to go from 106 losses to division champs. The only thing keeping this from being even spicier is that division is the AL Central.


Please sign the waiver before reading

David Schoenfield: The Red Sox will represent the American League in the World Series

The Red Sox are off to a nice start thanks to … Pitching and defense? Yep, you read that right. I look at rookie center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela flanked by Jarren Duran and Tyler O’Neill — three guys who can really run — and I’m reminded of the 2013 World Series champs, who had Jacoby Ellsbury in center and Shane Victorino in right, or the 2018 World Series champs, who had outstanding outfield defense with Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi. New pitching coach Andrew Bailey has the staff throwing fewer fastballs, and it’s working wonders as four of the five starters had ERAs under 1.00 through their first two starts (although Nick Pivetta just landed on the IL). Rafael Devers and Triston Casas haven’t even hit yet — but O’Neill has, with six home runs.

And if you’re worried about the pitching depth, well, nobody else has it either, and the Red Sox have a ton of payroll room to make some in-season moves.

That 2013 team came off a losing season and won it all. This team can do the same.

Hot sauce equivalent: Carolina Reaper. Peppers this hot can affect your vision — and maybe that’s what happened here. Are you sure the Red Sox are the AL East team you meant to mention for a World Series pick?


Passan: Elly De La Cruz is going to steal the most bases this century — and become the first 30/80 player in history

In MLB’s modern era, the 80-stolen base mark has been reached just 23 times. The last time it happened was in 1988, when both Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman exceeded it. De La Cruz, the Cincinnati Reds‘ dynamic 22-year-old shortstop, will break that 35-year drought — and on top of that, hit at least 30 home runs.

There are serious impediments to De La Cruz achieving this, beyond his age and the fact that this is his first full season in the major leagues. He strikes out a lot. Like, a lot lot. And getting on base, an imperative to making this prediction come true, is not something at which he excelled in his rookie season, doing so only 30% of the time.

Still, this is a bet on his immense talent — the sprint speed that is the fourth fastest in MLB, the home runs that go 450 feet to dead center. Coleman stole 110 bases with .320 on-base percentage in 1985. Henderson fell two homers short of 30/80 in 1986. It wouldn’t be bold if it wasn’t unlikely, but De La Cruz’s start — six stolen bases and three homers in 12 games — puts him on track.

Hot sauce equivalent: Pepper X. For years, the Carolina Reaper held the title of the world’s hottest pepper because it took until last year for the Guinness Book of Records to acknowledge that Pepper X even existed — which sums up De La Cruz and this hot take perfectly. Until he burst on the scene last summer, would you believe that a 6-foot-5, 200-pound shortstop who throws harder than anyone, runs faster than anyone and has light-tower power exists? Of course not. But De La Cruz is real — and as flamin’ hot as it sounds, he could turn 30/80 into a reality, too.

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Logano insists playoff format is ‘very entertaining’

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Logano insists playoff format is 'very entertaining'

Joey Logano has found a way to tune out months of negativity.

Critics? Naysayers? Anyone who thinks his third Cup Series championship was a fluke?

“I can’t hear it because my trophies, they kind of, like, echo around me,” Logano quipped during a videoconference call with media Wednesday.

Logano won his third title in November, sparking debate about whether NASCAR’s current playoff format is the best way to determine the series’ worthiest champion. Few could make a strong case for that being Logano in 2024.

He won four races, had 13 top-10 finishes and rarely had the car to beat over 37 events.

He got huge breaks along the way, too. He used what amounted to a Hail Mary to win in Nashville — stretching his empty fuel tank through five overtimes — just to qualify for the postseason. And then he was actually eliminated from playoff contention in the second round only to be reinstated when Alex Bowman’s car failed a postrace inspection.

While competitors have since called for NASCAR to tweak its playoff format, with some wanting to move the finale to a different track every year instead of keeping it at Phoenix Raceway, Logano — not surprisingly — believes the setup is just fine.

“The playoff system is very entertaining,” he said, adding that teams often get hot in other sports and win it all. “It takes a lot to get through the 10 races to win the championship. … When the playoffs start, a lot of times you see teams that fire up.

“And we’ve been one of those teams, thankfully, and it’s worked out for us three times. But I don’t think that means you have to change the playoff system.”

NASCAR said earlier this week that no tweaks would be made to the championship format in 2025. Instead, officials plan to study it for another year before making any decisions. That won’t stop drivers from stumping for a makeover.

“I think it deserves a look for sure and probably a change down the road,” Hendrick Motorsports driver William Byron said. “I just don’t know what that change is. I feel like we’ve just gotten into such a routine of going to the same racetrack for the final race, and having similar tracks that lead up to it has gotten a little bit predictable. But you could say probably the same thing in other sports, with the [Kansas City] Chiefs hosting the AFC championship every year.

“It’s just kind of the nature of sports, probably; it gets a little bit repetitive. But it’d be nice to see the final race to move around.”

Team Penske has won the last three Cup Series titles, with Logano sandwiching championships around teammate Ryan Blaney. All of those came in Phoenix, where the finale landed in 2020 after nearly two decades at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

NASCAR has made wholesale changes to its schedule in recent years, including moving the season-opening Clash and the all-atar race.

The Clash bounced from Daytona International Speedway to the Los Angeles Coliseum and is now headed to historic Bowman Gray Stadium in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, for Sunday’s exhibition.

The all-star race went from North Carolina to Tennessee to Texas before landing back in North Carolina.

No one would be surprised to see the finale end up with similar movement.

“We have some tracks that could be awesome for the championship, like Vegas and Homestead and even Charlotte,” Byron said. “Just being open to all the different ideas would probably be cool and bring some buzz and also just kind of even the competition out.”

With no changes in sight for now, Logano, 34, can focus on a fourth championship. He’s one of six drivers with three Cup titles and needs another to join Jeff Gordon (4), Dale Earnhardt (7), Jimmie Johnson (7) and Richard Petty (7) as the only guys with at least four.

“Probably not until I’m done racing will I be content with what I have because I’m not done yet,” Logano said. “I got a lot of years ahead of me to win more championships and races.

“As great as it is, the first 20 minutes is amazing because you’re celebrating with your team and your family. And then every day [after] it becomes a little less exciting and more thoughts of, ‘We got to do it again.'”

Another one surely would do a lot to drown out those detractors.

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How the Rantanen blockbuster happened, what’s next for Avs, Canes, other contenders

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How the Rantanen blockbuster happened, what's next for Avs, Canes, other contenders

Mikko Rantanen has been a member of the Carolina Hurricanes for nearly a week, but it’s going to take a bit longer than that for the shock to subside.

Carolina stunned the NHL last Friday night by acquiring Rantanen from the Colorado Avalanche in a three-way deal that also sent Chicago Blackhawks winger Taylor Hall to the Hurricanes. Entering Wednesday night, Rantanen was tied for sixth in the NHL in scoring (65 points). Since the 2021-22 season, the 28-year-old winger was fifth with 365 points in 286 games, including back-to-back 100-point seasons.

The NHL simply does not see this level of offensive superstar traded within the regular season; nor does it see teams with designs on the Stanley Cup move on from foundational core players like Colorado did with Rantanen. But his contract demands, as a pending unrestricted free agent, created a significant impasse with the Avalanche, with whom he had played for 10 seasons.

Rantanen told ESPN on Tuesday that he still hasn’t reached out to all the Avalanche teammates he wants to connect with. Both teams were right back in action in the aftermath of the trade, and Rantanen has been in a personal hurricane of reorienting his new life in Raleigh.

He knows players like Nathan MacKinnon have expressed their disappointment in seeing him traded. The feeling is mutual.

“I thought it was going to be an extension for sure. I can’t lie about that,” Rantanen said. “It was surprising because there was still some time to the deadline. I totally understand they didn’t want to lose me for free. But it surprised me for sure. I didn’t expect it at all.”

Nor did the rest of the NHL, which is still processing one of the biggest blockbusters of the last decade. We spoke with several NHL executives, agents and players to get a sense of the trade’s magnitude and the fallout that could impact more than just the teams involved.


Is this the right gamble for Carolina?

The Hurricanes were in New York when the Rantanen trade went down, with a game against the Islanders on the following evening. The players were at dinner when the news broke about Hall and then Rantanen. The tone and tenor of the meal quickly changed.

“We didn’t know who was going the other way. We all tried to figure out who it was,” center Jesperi Kotkaniemi said.

Kotkaniemi started getting texts from Finnish friends. “They’re really pumped in Finland. They’re able to watch the two best players now on the same team. So what could be better for them?” he said of Rantanen and center Sebastian Aho.

But then something else happened on social media: It was erroneously reported that Kotkaniemi himself would be sent to the Avalanche in the Rantanen trade.

On the surface, it made sense: He’s a 24-year-old forward signed through 2029-30 at a reasonable cap hit ($4.82 million annually), but he was never part of the package for Rantanen. Still, his name was out there long enough for another wave of text messages to roll in about his own future, which made the situation a bit more intense for him.

“It was a very hectic 15 minutes there,” he said.

It’s been a hectic few weeks for Eric Tulsky, in his first season as Hurricanes general manager. The league was buzzing about Carolina being active in the trade market. Sources told ESPN that the Hurricanes and Vancouver Canucks had engaged in negotiations about forwards Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller. The players’ longstanding feud had finally reached a boiling point, and Vancouver was seeking to ship one or both of them out before the March 7 trade deadline.

Kotkaniemi and forward Jack Roslovic were discussed in the framework of a Miller trade. Martin Necas wasn’t on the table for Miller, but might have been part of a deal for Pettersson.

Meanwhile, Carolina was also engaged in talks with the Avalanche for Rantanen, ones that tracked back to last summer.

Tulsky said last week that there was a desire for all parties to “get their best offers on the table” so the Hurricanes could decide which player to pursue. “Everybody had multiple offers. It was sort of time for everyone to figure out what they wanted to do, and this deal got done,” he said. “It was a complicated dance.”

When the music stopped, Rantanen and Hall were members of the Hurricanes.

The Avalanche picked up Carolina forwards Necas and Jack Drury, as well as a second-round pick in this year’s draft and a fourth-rounder in 2026. Chicago acquired its 2025 third-rounder from Carolina for Hall, the rights to Swedish forward Nils Juntorp and 50% retention of Rantanen’s $9.25 million salary cap hit. The Hurricanes ended up with Hall, a former Hart Trophy winner as league MVP, and Rantanen.

“Obviously, Carolina has been coveting a superstar and this is the way to get one,” one agent said.

NHL executives were impressed with the boldness of the swing from Carolina.

“Good for them. Risk and reward,” a general manager said. “They’re giving up controllable assets for someone that you’re not sure you can control. But they have the cap space to sign him. He’s a great player who makes them a better team.”

The executives we spoke with downplayed the notion that the Hurricanes might have started an “arms race” in the Eastern Conference among contenders. One general manager said that most teams have their own plans in mind for the NHL trade deadline for specific needs that won’t be torn up because a rival made a blockbuster trade.

There were virtues to all three players the Hurricanes were considering. Miller and Pettersson were both signed with lengthy term. Miller seemed cut from a Rod Brind’Amour mold as a great, two-way player who’s difficult to play against. (Depending on who you believe, he’s also a bit difficult to play with as a teammate.) Pettersson has been underwhelming this season, but has incredible upside as a star offensive. In 2022-23, he had 103 points in 80 games for Vancouver.

But Rantanen’s combination of size, skill and offensive consistency was too much for the Hurricanes to pass up. Especially when one considers his Stanley Cup Playoff success: Since 2019-20, Rantanen is fifth in postseason scoring, with 83 points in 63 games, including 28 goals.

Carolina has made the playoffs for six straight seasons, each time not producing enough offense to advance out of the conference. In that span, the Hurricanes have a .486 winning percentage in one-goal games.

The downside to acquiring Rantanen, potentially: They currently don’t know if he’ll be one-and-done in Raleigh, a superstar rental for a team that’s yet to play for the Stanley Cup with Brind’Amour as their coach.

“Carolina will look stupid if they lose in the first round and he walks away to another team,” an agent said. “But I think they’re going to sign him. I think he’ll like it there.”


Did Colorado make the right call?

Nathan MacKinnon was already in a mood after the Avalanche lost to the Boston Bruins last Saturday.

“I wish I could have talked about this not right now,” he said.

But this was the first opportunity for the media to ask Colorado’s star center about losing his linemate and close friend Mikko Rantanen.

“Just sad, obviously. Losing Mikko … really great friend for 10 years. Won a Cup together. I don’t really know what happened,” he said. “It’s just unfortunate losing a great friend and a great teammate.”

Rantanen was seeking a contract in the neighborhood of the eight-year extension Leon Draisaitl signed with the Edmonton Oilers in September. That deal carries an average annual value of $14 million. Both Rantanen and Draisaitl are represented by agent Andy Scott.

The winger has said he was willing to take less than market value to remain in Colorado, but it’s unclear what that number actually looked like with regard to market value.

MacKinnon tried to stay out of Rantanen’s business on a new contract. The ticking clock didn’t bother him. He assumed it would play out much like Gabriel Landeskog‘s negotiations with the team did back in 2021, when the latter signed an eight-year, $56 million extension hours before free agency. But MacKinnon was wrong.

“I never thought in a million years he’d leave. It just sucks,” he said.

But Rantanen’s departure was something the Avalanche and GM Chris MacFarland believed was a possibility. The Avalanche and Hurricanes had been discussing Rantanen since last summer. Tulsky said the teams tabled “serious offers” for the winger during the past six to eight weeks. The Hurricanes were pushing hard to complete the trade in the past two weeks.

Others around the league knew it was a possibility too.

“I wasn’t surprised. For me, it wasn’t a secret,” a GM said. “The potential was there because of their situation — that he can’t go over MacKinnon [in AAV] or whatever. And I know that Carolina wasn’t the only team they were speaking with about Rantanen.”

MacKinnon makes $12.6 million against the salary cap on a deal that runs through 2030-31. Before signing that deal in Sept. 2022, he talked about taking less than market value — on a contract that made him the highest paid player in the league at the time — in order to “win with the group.” It’s the same mindset exhibited by his friend and mentor Sidney Crosby with the Pittsburgh Penguins over Crosby’s career.

But the contract that really influenced the Rantanen deal was one that hasn’t been signed yet: Cale Makar‘s next deal, which will begin in 2027-28. Considered by some to be the best offensive defenseman since Bobby Orr, Makar could earn the largest NHL contract for a defenseman ever.

“I think they made a decision that you can have two players but not three players making more than $12 million per season,” an agent said. “They knew, ballpark, the number for Cale Makar. So their decision was, ‘We can have two, but not three. Who do we keep?'”

So MacFarland had a choice to make: Top-load his roster with three star players gobbling up a large percentage of the salary cap or break up their holy hockey trinity. MacFarland made it clear that in doing the latter, he was acknowledging the team didn’t have championship depth and needed the flexibility to get it back.

“It’s clear we are not deep enough. I think that you’ve got to be deep to go four rounds, and hopefully this is going to help that,” MacFarland said. “Obviously Mikko is a superstar. You can’t replace that. But he’s a superstar that earned the right to be a free agent.”

One agent was skeptical of the negotiation: “I don’t feel they ever really were interested in signing him.”

Another agent felt the Avalanche did what they had to do. “It was the right trade for Colorado, because they couldn’t afford to pay Rantanen what he wanted within the context of their salary structure. He didn’t have full trade protection, so good move by them to trade him,” they said.

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Mikko Rantanen nets goal for Avalanche

Mikko Rantanen nets goal for Avalanche

MacFarland called it “a tough business decision” for the team. “It hurts, right. He’s a homegrown talent. He’s a superstar person. He’s a superstar human being,” he said.

Of course, there are other “business decisions” to think about in Denver or any NHL market.

“There’s an argument to be made that keeping Rantanen makes sense because you’re selling tickets. It doesn’t really matter ultimately if you win the Cup, but you have to be good every year. That guy is going to allow you to make the playoffs every year,” another general manager said. “But I could also make the argument that winning the Cup trumps everything else, and that winning it buys you a few seasons of a steady revenue stream no matter what your success is in those seasons.”

MacFarland has made it clear that teams usually have to draft and develop players like Rantanen. “We’re going to have to try and replace him in the aggregate; 50-goal scorers don’t grow on trees,” he said.

But what if he could be replaced?

“You could make the argument that Rantanen is a unicorn, and that you’re not finding another player like that,” a general manager said. “That said, what’s your opportunity cost? Could you find another 100-point winger like that? What could you trade to find that?”

One agent believes the Avalanche could find that player because of MacKinnon.

“Something no one seems to be discussing: I think the Avalanche believe that MacKinnon was a big part of Rantanen’s success, and that they would be able to put another guy with MacKinnon, pay him less and have comparable success,” they said.

Right now that player is Necas, who was immediately placed with MacKinnon after the trade. The speedy winger led the Hurricanes in scoring this season and has another year on his contract at $6.5 million AAV.

MacFarland said it was important to have Necas and Drury, an “emerging player” down the lineup, under contract and “cost-controlled” beyond this season. He said the trade would allow the Avalanche to potentially make more moves before the March 7 deadline. Many sources are wondering if the Avalanche would target a center to play behind MacKinnon, with players like the Islanders’ Brock Nelson in the conversation.

“I think we’re always sort of looking to get better. Certainly, over the next few weeks that won’t change. I think obviously there are a little more bullets in the draft-pick cupboard and some cap space,” MacFarland said.

But no Mikko Rantanen any longer.


‘What is Chicago doing?’

The Blackhawks’ role in the Rantanen trade had observers around the NHL baffled.

“What the f— is Chicago doing?” one NHL executive asked.

The Blackhawks retained half of Rantanen’s salary and cap hit, while also trading Hall to the Hurricanes. For that, they received their own 2025 third-round draft pick that Carolina had acquired from Chicago at the 2024 draft.

In recent trades, a third-party team retaining 25% of a player’s salary to facilitate a transaction has typically received a fourth-round pick. Chicago retaining that much cap space ($4.625 million) for 50% of a player’s salary and including a veteran forward with Hall’s abilities in a deal for only one third-round pick in return left many criticizing the return for the Blackhawks. But NHL insiders acknowledge there may have been some method to Chicago’s perceived madness.

One aspect of the trade that hasn’t gotten a lot of attention is the actual salaries for Rantanen and Hall this season. Rantanen’s contract has a declining real-dollar value to where he was making only $6 million this season after having a base salary of $12 million in the first two years of the deal. Hall made $5.25 million this season. As one general manager noted, from a base salary perspective, the Blackhawks are paying slightly more for the rest of Rantanen’s contract than they would have if Hall finished the season with them.

“Essentially, Chicago was asked to sell a little cap space with the money being the same. They get a third for Hall — which to me is a little low — but effectively that’s what they’re doing,” one general manager said.

Davidson said that trading Hall was the logical move now because things frankly weren’t going to get better for him in Chicago leading up to the trade deadline. “You run the risk of things like injury, the role was diminishing almost by the game, and it just wasn’t heading towards a way that was going to maximize or enhance value,” he said.

As one NHL agent put it: “I know Kyle Davidson’s taking a lot of heat, but I don’t think he probably was going to get much better for Taylor Hall than what he got.”

There’s no question it hasn’t been the happiest season for Hall in Chicago. Former head coach Luke Richardson surprised him by making him a healthy scratch earlier this season. He had nine goals in 46 games. One NHL executive suggested that moving Hall out now could benefit the vibes inside Chicago’s dressing room.

But moving him out now also means not having to use Chicago’s last salary retention spot to move him later, which Davidson would undoubtedly have to do to make a trade work at the deadline. Now that slot is available for another deadline trade involving a player like forward Ryan Donato ($2 million AAV) or defenseman Alec Martinez ($4 million AAV), both of whom are unrestricted free agents after the season; or a more coveted player in forward Jason Dickinson, who has two years left at $4.25 million AAV.


Will Carolina sign Rantanen?

The Hurricanes now have the chance to do something no other team can do for Rantanen this offseason: Give him an eight-year contract. Per the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement, everyone else can only go as high as seven years.

“Where is he going to go for seven years instead of the eight that Carolina can give him? If they’re willing to go eight years and $13 million annually, where else would he want to go that’s good that can afford him?” one agent pondered.

Rantanen told me that the Hurricanes’ ability to give him an eighth year will be a factor in his eventual free-agent decision. But those negotiations are a ways off. He’s got other things to think about now.

“To be honest, I haven’t had any chance to think about an extension, just trying to get into the group and try to play well,” he said. “So I think we’ll have to think about those situations in a couple weeks or so.”

What’s been interesting in chatting with sources about Rantanen and the Hurricanes is that the money doesn’t seem to be a concern. Owner Tom Dundon is infamous for his tough negotiations on contracts for everyone from players to his own coaches. But the assumption is that the Hurricanes had a ballpark idea of what Rantanen is looking for on his next contract and were comfortable going there in negotiations.

Obviously, the Hurricanes faced a similar situation when they traded for Pittsburgh Penguins winger Jake Guentzel at the deadline last season and attempted to sign him to an extension, only to see the Tampa Bay Lightning ink him instead.

But Tulsky said the conditions are more favorable to keep Rantanen than they were for retaining Guentzel. Last season, the Hurricanes didn’t have the cap flexibility to sign Guentzel and the other players they wanted. This offseason, Tulsky estimates the team could have between $35 million to $40 million in cap space.

“Our team situation is totally different right now,” he said. “We don’t feel nearly as constrained.”

So if it’s not the money and it’s not the percentage of the salary cap, what is the make-or-break thing for Rantanen staying with the Hurricanes?

“I think they will ultimately sign him, unless he absolutely hates it there,” one agent concluded.

Tulsky admitted that the Hurricanes’ current approach to Rantanen is “more of a recruiting pitch than a negotiation in my mind.” They have to sell him on the franchise, the system, the players on the roster and on the way and, most of all, spending the next eight years of his life in Raleigh.

Sebastian Aho has not affixed “Ambassador” to his name, but it might as well be there. He’s been a friend and Finnish national team teammate for Rantanen throughout their lives. Aho has starred with Carolina since 2016-17. No one on the Hurricanes is better equipped to sell Rantanen on Raleigh and the franchise.

“I guess it’s just about making him feel comfortable, making him feel welcome. I think that goes a long way,” Aho said. “But obviously if he wants to go play a round of golf, I’m not saying no to that.”


What if Rantanen goes to market?

There isn’t yet certainty on the NHL’s salary cap in the near term. Some projections have it jumping from $88 million to upwards of $97 million next season. From there, the sky’s the limit.

One agent said that as the salary cap rises, some teams will claim they have an internal cap that only allows them to offer so much money to players. But after one or two huge contracts are handed out that elevate teams to the new ceiling, that dogma will go out the window.

“Competitiveness is going to kick in. GMs and owners are going to decide that they need to spend more to stay competitive,” the agent said.

The opportunity has never been greater for a player like Rantanen to maximize his earning potential on the open market. Leon Draisaitl’s contract with the Oilers was $112 million over eight years, or $14 million AAV.

“I think he’ll get Draisaitl-like money as a UFA,” one agent predicted.

“There are probably some good teams that might be willing to go seven years at $14 million annually to get him,” another said.

Draisaitl’s contract is one factor, but there’s another winger potentially going to market this summer seeking a big contract: Mitch Marner of the Toronto Maple Leafs, who is in the last year of a six-year contract with a $10.903 million AAV.

As far as possible suitors, two of the NHL’s richest franchises come to mind:

  • The New York Rangers continue to aggressively try to reshape their roster. They nearly completed a trade for Miller with the Canucks in recent weeks, with center Filip Chytil as the centerpiece. But salary retention and draft pick conditions were reported sticking points. If they’re able to create the necessary space — moving out a veteran like Chris Kreider or Mika Zibanejad — Rantanen is the kind of shiny new toy the franchise finds hard to resist. Consider also that winger Artemi Panarin will be in the last year of his contract in 2025-26 at an $11,642,857 AAV.

  • The other team is already paying part of Rantanen’s salary: The Chicago Blackhawks. They’re expected to be in on every player they can this offseason in an attempt to quickly build a contender around young star Connor Bedard. The 19-year-old phenom has shown some discontent at dwelling in the Central Division cellar in the first two seasons of his NHL career. Putting a top five scorer like Rantanen on his wing would certainly put a smile on his face. Needless to say, Chicago has the money and the cap space to attempt it — if not the competitive team that Rantanen might be compelled to join.

Then there’s a wild card played recently by insider Andy Strickland, who is the rinkside reporter for the St. Louis Blues on FanDuel Sports Network. On his “Cam & Stick” podcast, Strickland said Rantanen will sign with the Edmonton Oilers this summer.

“They’re going to be able to pay him and I think there would be some interest from him,” he said, noting that Draisaitl and Rantanen share an agent. Strickland said the acquisition of Rantanen would also be an enticement for star Connor McDavid to re-sign, as he becomes an unrestricted free agent in summer 2026.

The magnitude of this trade, and the star quality of the player, lend themselves to this kind of speculation. The Hurricanes have some advantages in seeking to keep Rantanen. But they won’t be alone if he tests the market.

“Assuming he doesn’t hate the system and the environment there, I think he signs with Carolina,” one agent said. “If he doesn’t care where he plays, all bets are off.”

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Sources: IF Kim, Rays agree to 2-year, $29M deal

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Sources: IF Kim, Rays agree to 2-year, M deal

Infielder Ha-Seong Kim and the Tampa Bay Rays are in agreement on a two-year, $29 million contract that includes an opt-out after the first season, sources told ESPN, adding a Gold Glove winner to a Rays team that places significant emphasis on defense.

Kim, 29, who is expected to return from shoulder surgery in May, likely will start at shortstop but also has played second and third base, with his Gold Glove coming in a utility role.

The deal, which will pay Kim $13 million this season, is the most Tampa Bay has guaranteed in free agency for a position player since signing outfielder Greg Vaughn for four years and $34 million in 1999.

Before the partial tear of his right labrum required surgery, Kim was expected to land a free agent deal in the nine-figure range. With his opt-out, he can join a free agent class next year that’s thin on infielders, with shortstop Bo Bichette and second baseman Luis Arraez the only players of Kim’s caliber.

He arrived from Korea in 2021, signing with the San Diego Padres as a bat-first middle infielder. While the power Kim displayed in Korea didn’t show up as frequently as it did with the Kiwoom Heroes, his glove was a revelation, and in four seasons with the Padres, he posted double-digit wins above replacement despite never slugging above .400.

Tampa Bay enters the 2025 season with playoff aspirations but had been relatively quiet over the winter, signing catcher Danny Jansen and trading left-hander Jeffrey Springs to Oakland. The Rays used Jose Caballero and Taylor Walls at shortstop last season and are expected to do the same this year before the return of Kim.

Their infield already was a strength, with first baseman Yandy Diaz, second baseman Brandon Lowe and star-in-the-making Junior Caminero at third, with Christopher Morel, Curtis Mead, Jonathan Aranda and Richie Palacios also capable to playing on the dirt.

Shortstop Wander Franco, who was expected to be the Rays’ long-term solution at the position after signing an 11-year deal, remains on the restricted list while facing charges in the Dominican Republic of sexual abuse, sexual exploitation against a minor and human trafficking.

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