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“What next?” It’s a question anxiously asked too many times in the past six months.

And no doubt the question formed the crux of the late-night call between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Follow live: Iran launches attack on Israel

Iran’s spectacular drone and missile assault on Israel is truly unprecedented.

A region already reeling from the Hamas attacks and the Israeli retaliation on Gaza is being rocked again.

American leadership and leverage, tested repeatedly, is undergoing a bigger strain still.

This time though the consequence of President Biden’s test is all-out war, or not, in the Middle East. It is the scenario most feared since 7 October.

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Without question, this moment – right now – is the most dangerous yet, by a long way.

A direct attack by Iran, from Iranian soil, against Israel is a red line crossed in Tel Aviv.

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The aftermath of the airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on 1 April. Pic: Reuters

Iran’s trigger was another unprecedented moment and another red line crossed, on 1 April, when a missile landed on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria killing 16 people. The Israeli trigger for that? Iran’s malign regional behaviour, as they would see it.

Tit, tat, tit, tat. You can see how this spirals. It explains the grim faces of the US president and his officials in the White House situation room overnight.

Even though so many of the drones and missiles were intercepted and despite no mass casualty scenario, Israelis will feel profoundly vulnerable, and the Israeli government may feel compelled to retaliate.

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Explosions light up sky above Jerusalem

Impressions and the re-establishment of deterrence count for a lot in the Middle East.

That is precisely why Iran hit back after the Damascus consulate attack. It’s also why Israel may be unable to ignore Tehran’s weekend wave of drones and missiles. Never in its history has Israel faced an aerial assault like this.

Read more:
Netanyahu convenes Israeli war cabinet as Iran attacks

Direct attack against Israel by Iran is unprecedented
Iran attack on Israel: Everything we know so far

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And of course, in the White House they know all this all too well. But we all know too that the US-Israeli relationship has been severely strained by Gaza.

President Biden’s test now is to balance the action and reaction of a nation facing a moment that will feel, internally, to be existential with the consequences of an all-out regional war.

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Why has Iran launched drones?

Significant Jewish settler violence in the West Bank, Hezbollah attacks from southern Lebanon and the continued disaster in Gaza all risk compounding the chaos.

Iran’s actions were more than anyone had expected. An unprecedented and enormously risky attack on Israel. It was an extreme attempt to re-establish deterrence. That works both ways.

Just six months ago, days before 7 October, President Biden’s national security advisor Jake Sullivan wrote “the region is quieter than it has been for decades… We have de-escalated crises in Gaza & restored direct diplomacy…”

He was spectacularly misguided.

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Slovakia’s PM Robert Fico fights for life – as leader attacks ‘attempted assassination on democracy’

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Slovakia's PM Robert Fico fights for life - as leader attacks 'attempted assassination on democracy'

Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico is fighting for his life after yesterday’s assassination attempt, Slovak officials have said, as they condemned the attack as an “attempted assassination on democracy”.

The comments come as Slovak police charged a suspect in connection with the attack.

The country’s interior minister Sutaj Estok described the suspect as a “lone wolf”, saying the shooting was politically motivated.

Slovakia prime minister shot – latest: Slovak PM ‘not out of the woods yet’

At a news conference earlier, President-elect Peter Pellegrini said he was “appalled” at “where hate can lead us” as he called for calm alongside outgoing President Zuzana Caputova.

“An attempted assassination of the prime minister is an attempted assassination on democracy,” Mr Pellegrini said,

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“This assassination attempt needs to be condemned by all of us jointly … We must not respond to hate with more hate or else this evil will never be stopped,” he said.

Slovakia's prime minister Robert Fico
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Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico. Pic: Reuters

Multiple shots were fired on Wednesday outside a cultural centre in the town of Handlova, around 85 miles northeast of the capital Bratislava, where the 59-year-old prime minister was meeting supporters, the government said.

Slovakia’s deputy prime minister Robert Kalinak described the attack as “premeditated”, saying Mr Fico was “not out of the woods yet”.

Doctors have performed a five-hour operation on Mr Fico and he is being treated in an intensive care unit, one hospital official has said.

The country’s defence minister has said Mr Fico’s serious condition is due to how “complicated” his gunshot injuries were.

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Video shows moment Slovak PM was shot

The attack comes as political campaigning heats up three weeks ahead of Europe-wide elections to choose members for the European Parliament.

Mr Fico has long been a divisive figure. His return to power last year on a pro-Russian, anti-American ticket led to worries among fellow EU and NATO members that he would turn his country further away from the Western mainstream.

Under his stewardship, the government has halted arms deliveries to Ukraine, and his opponents worry he will lead Slovakia in the footsteps of Viktor Orban’s Hungary.

Thousands have repeatedly rallied in the capital and across Slovakia to protest against Mr Fico’s policies.

The attack, which was the first major assassination attempt on a European political leader for more than 20 years, has been condemned internationally.

In a message released by the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin wished the prime minister a fast and full recovery.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also condemned the violence against a neighbouring country’s head of government.

“Every effort should be made to ensure that violence does not become the norm in any country, form or sphere,” he said.

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What will China want to talk about during Vladimir Putin’s state visit?

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What will China want to talk about during Vladimir Putin's state visit?

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s trip to China is part of the great power politics currently being played out between the West and the global south. 

In this arena, China’s President Xi Jinping is promoting his multipolar view of the world, a realignment of the world’s geopolitical centre away from the US and Europe, to Asia.

Pic: Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend an official welcoming ceremony in Beijing, China May 16, 2024. Sputnik/Sergei Bobylev/Pool via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing, China. Sputnik/Sergei Bobylev/Pool via Reuters

Xi sees China front and centre on the stage, with a coterie of countries to back him up.

China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are at one end of the spectrum, but widen out the view and there is also Brazil, India and South Africa, who all see the world through a lens at odds with the West.

Added to that is the so-called “no-limits” friendship between Russia and China. It has been tested to the limit as Russia continues its war in Ukraine. But there is no sign China has any plan to abandon its neighbour.

So what will China want to talk about?

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First, the Russia-Ukraine war. China is under growing pressure from the US and Europe to rein in exports of dual-use items like semiconductors and machinery tools that Russia can use on the battlefield.

But if China is feeling the heat, you wouldn’t know it. Its exports to Russia surged last year. The way Xi Jinping sees it, Russia is another market for China’s export driven economy, and with Western companies banned from doing business with Russia, China has stepped in to take advantage of it.

Why Putin may visit Vietnam next

There is a possibility, Vladimir Putin will visit Vietnam after his summit with Xi Jingping in Beijing, or later this month. It would be Putin’s first state visit to the country since 2017.

Vietnam is one of Russia’s three closest partners in Asia, alongside China and North Korea.

Experts suggest a visit from Putin would signal to the world that he’s committed to a “Turn to the East” policy and allow the Russian leader to show that Western efforts to isolate his government over its invasion of Ukraine have failed.

Maintaining a close connection to Moscow is a priority for the Vietnamese leadership. They have a tricky balancing act trying to juggle ties with both America and China.

Beijing’s encroachments into the South China Sea represents a potential territorial threat to Hanoi. Whilst America is an obvious counterweight to that, the US is also considered a threat to the ruling Communist Party.

Welcoming Putin to Hanoi, a leader the West has sought to cut off, is proof the Vietnam government wants close relationships with as many powerful nations as possible.

Russia is one of its seven so-called “strategic partners” and it would come as no surprise if Putin does touch down in Hanoi. Vietnam could also be expected to seek an arms deal with its historical ally and replenish its ageing Soviet-era military equipment.

China is also resisting pressure from the West to use its leverage to force Mr Putin to wind down the war.

While President Xi doesn’t want to see Russia in the grip of collapse, after all they share a 2,500-mile-long border, a long, grinding war in Ukraine has benefits for China.

It drains European energy and resources, distracts the US and allows China to get on with its territorial claims in Asia and its ambition to dominate international trade in EVs, solar panels and batteries.

Read more:
As Putin visits Xi, one is clearly stronger than the other
Putin’s Victory Day parade is bid to display might despite isolation
As Western weapons trickle through, Putin seizes chance to hit Kharkiv

In this Sino-Russian relationship, China has the upper hand. It’s receiving cheap raw materials from Russia and paying 30% less for natural gas than Europe did before the war. China is calling the shots.

While Mr Putin and Mr Xi have an enduring friendship, this alignment is a thorn in the side for the West. But there seems little Europe and the US can do about it. Threats aren’t working, sanctioning Chinese banks might.

For Beijing, it’s all about balance. China needs the US and Europe to remain open to its exports. So far, it has been able to have it all. However, it’s becoming increasingly untenable for the West to stand by while China stands with Russia.

A time may yet come when President Xi Jinping is forced to make a choice.

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Putin thanks Xi for his efforts to resolve Ukraine conflict as the ‘good friends’ bolster China-Russia ties

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Putin thanks Xi for his efforts to resolve Ukraine conflict as the 'good friends' bolster China-Russia ties

Russian President Vladimir Putin has thanked Xi Jinping for China’s efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict.

The two leaders met in Beijing where the Chinese president said he hoped Europe will return to peace and stability soon.

Ukraine war latest:
Putin in China; Russia advancing

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping exchange bilateral documents during a meeting in Beijing, China. Pic: Sputnik/Sergei Bobylev/Pool via Reuters
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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping exchange bilateral documents in Beijing. Pic: Sputnik/Sergei Bobylev/Pool via Reuters

China offered a 12-point plan for peace last year – which Ukraine and the West rejected.

It has yet to condemn Russia or describe the war in Ukraine as an “invasion” – and has also criticised Western sanctions imposed on Moscow.

“China hopes for the early return of Europe to peace and stability and will continue to play a constructive role toward this,” Mr Xi said, speaking alongside Mr Putin.

Mr Xi said the two countries were furthering their relationship as “good neighbours, good friends, good partners”, according to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV, echoing their commitment to the “no limits” relationship they signed in 2022, just before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian leader – on a two-day state visit to China – said he would inform the Chinese leader in detail about “the situation in Ukraine”, adding: “We are grateful for the initiative of our Chinese colleagues and friends to regulate the situation.”

Why Putin may visit Vietnam next

There is a possibility Vladimir Putin will visit Vietnam after his summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing, or later this month. It would be Putin’s first state visit to the country since 2017.

Vietnam is one of Russia’s three closest partners in Asia, alongside China and North Korea.

Experts suggest a visit from Putin would signal to the world that he’s committed to a “Turn to the East” policy and allow the Russian leader to show that Western efforts to isolate his government over its invasion of Ukraine have failed.

Maintaining a close connection to Moscow is a priority for the Vietnamese leadership. They have a tricky balancing act trying to juggle ties with both America and China.

Beijing’s encroachments into the South China Sea represents a potential territorial threat to Hanoi. While America is an obvious counterweight to that, the US is also considered a threat to the ruling Communist Party.

Welcoming Putin to Hanoi, a leader the West has sought to cut off, is proof the Vietnam government wants close relationships with as many powerful nations as possible.

Russia is one of its seven so-called “strategic partners” and it would come as no surprise if Putin does touch down in Hanoi. Vietnam could also be expected to seek an arms deal with its historical ally and replenish its ageing Soviet-era military equipment.

The two leaders signed a joint statement on deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership between their two nations, with Mr Xi saying China and Russia would continue to uphold a position of non-alliance and non-confrontation.

Russian state news agency RIA-Novosti quoted Mr Putin as saying that Russia-China relations are “not directed against anyone. Our cooperation in world affairs today is one of the main stabilising factors in the international arena”.

Beijing – which claims to take a neutral position in the Ukraine conflict – has forged increasingly close ties with Moscow as the war has dragged into a third year.

China continues to supply Russia with key components for its production of weapons.

Its purchase of Russian oil and gas has also helped boost Russia’s economy.

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China-Russia military ties have also strengthened – with both countries hosting each other’s ground forces for joint drills.

They have also held a series of war games in recent years including naval drills and patrols by long-range bombers over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea.

Read more:
What will Xi and Putin want to talk about?
The ‘dual-use’ Chinese goods helping Russia’s war machine

On the eve of the visit, Mr Putin said in an interview with Chinese media the Kremlin has “never refused to negotiate” over the conflict in Ukraine.

“We are open to a dialogue on Ukraine, but such negotiations must take into account the interests of all countries involved in the conflict, including ours,” the Russian leader was quoted as saying by the official Xinhua News Agency.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said any negotiations must include a restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops, the release of all prisoners, a tribunal for those responsible for the aggression, and security guarantees for Ukraine.

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