Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries shows the growing threat AI drones pose to energy markets

Published

8 months ago

April 14, 2024

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Smoke billows after Ukraine’s SBU drone strikes a refinery, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Ryazan, Ryazan Region, Russia, in this screen grab from a video obtained by Reuters, March 13, 2024.

Video Obtained By Reuters | Via Reuters

Ukraine’s campaign of attacks against Russian oil refineries is demonstrating how relatively cheap drones that utilize artificial intelligence could pose a major threat to global energy markets.

Ukraine-launched drones have hit 18 Russian oil refineries this year with a combined capacity of 3.9 million barrels per day, according to report published by JPMorgan earlier this month. Some 670,000 bpd of Russian refining capacity is currently offline due to the strikes, according to the bank.

Ukraine’s capabilities are growing with its drones now demonstrating a substantially longer range. Earlier this month, Kyiv hit Russia’s third-largest oil refinery, Taneco, which is located up to 1,300 kilometers — roughly 800 miles — from the frontlines, according to JPMorgan.

Ukraine is increasingly using drones that are enabled with AI, which helps the weapons navigate and avoid jamming, according to the bank.

“The AI guidance also delivers strike precision, maximizing the impact of the strikes by targeting specific areas like distillation towers, repairs of which requires Western technology,” Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan, told clients in the April report. “This makes the repairs costly and often require equipment that the country is not able to produce.”

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made clear Tuesday that the Biden administration is worried about the strikes in a rare airing of public disagreement with U.S. allies in Kyiv.

“Certainly, those attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation,” Austin told the Senate Armed Services Committee. “Quite frankly, I think Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.”

The U.S. has urged Ukraine to stop the attacks on Russian energy infrastructure out of concern that they could drive up crude oil prices and instigate retaliation from Moscow, three people familiar with the discussions told the Financial Times last month.

The losses to Russian refining capacity could worsen as Ukraine aims to build a full-fledge drone industry and produce a million units domestically this year, according to the JPMorgan report. If Kyiv is able to extend the drones’ range to 1,500 kilometers (about 932 miles), they could potentially hit 21 refineries with more than 4.4 million bpd of refined capacity, according to the report.

“There’s room for this to become a bigger problem, because we’ve come to count on Russian supply getting to the global market, which allows other non-Russian supply to go to other places,” said John Kilduff, an energy expert and founding partner at Again Capital.

The deployment of AI drones also has broader implications for global energy markets, according to Bob Brackett, a senior research analyst at Bernstein. The drones are cheap to produce compared to the millions of dollars in damage they can cause and could empower nonstate actors to challenge superior fighting forces, Brackett told clients in Friday note.

“These drones can easily and asymmetrically disrupt global seaborne trade,” Brackett wrote, warning that oil exporters such as Russia aren’t the only countries that need to be worried. Oil importers, like China and India, will now have to worry about disruptions to crude flows from drone attacks, he said.

Impact on oil, gasoline prices

Ukraine’s campaign of drone strikes comes at the same time as tensions are running red hot in the Middle East, with OPEC member Iran and Israel now teetering on the brink of a direct confrontation.

U.S. crude oil has rallied nearly 20% this year, while the global benchmark Brent has gained 17% as the wars in Middle East and Eastern Europe rage against the backdrop of rising crude demand and tightening supply. Gasoline futures have surged about 33% since the year began.

Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy, said the drone strikes are not a major issue for oil prices right now because the attacks on refineries are primarily affecting Russia’s production of diesel at a time when the market is already glutted.

But Russia is also major exporter of a gasoline feedstock called naphtha. If naphta markets were to tighten because of the attacks it could have an impact on gas prices and balances, said McNally, who served as a senior energy official in the George W. Bush administration.

Goldman Sachs said in a research note last month that the strikes are bullish for diesel prices, but the impact on crude oil is mixed. Outages can lead to reduced oil demand from refineries, which is bearish for prices. But the market is worried Ukraine could increasingly hit oil production and transportation infrastructure, which would weigh on Russian crude exports, according to Goldman.

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said the current strikes could have an indirect effect on oil markets. As Russian fuel exports decline due to the attacks, countries that rely on those exports then need to source fuel from refineries in other jurisdictions, Melek said. Those refiners need more crude to meet the demand which can stress oil supplies, he said.

Russian production already poses a problem for the Biden administration. Moscow has pledged to cut its oil output and exports by an additional 471,000 barrels per day in the second quarter to meet its commitments to OPEC+.

Those cuts could push the price of Brent crude to $100 by September, which will put pressure on the Biden administration just before the presidential election, according to a JPMorgan report last month.

The investment bank expects U.S. gas prices to hit $4 per gallon by May, the highest level since the summer of 2022.

“There are few issues that terrify a sitting American president in an election year more than surging gasoline prices,” said Rapidan’s McNally.

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Environment

Tesla (TSLA) introduces new direct discount in China at critical time

Published

2 hours ago

November 25, 2024

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Tesla (TSLA) introduces new direct discount in China at critical time

Tesla (TSLA) has introduced a new direct discount for the Model Y in China as the latest of a series of incentives to boost demand during this critical end-of-quarter push.

The automaker regularly offers discounts at the end of every quarter, but the incentives to boost demand have been the most wide-ranging ever this quarter.

Over the last month, we have been documenting the many sale incentives and discounts that Tesla has put in place to ensure it creates the demand for a record quarter.

Tesla aims to deliver a record number of more than 515,000 vehicles in Q4 in order for its sales not to be down for the whole year. That’s ~30,000 more vehicles than Tesla’s last record quarter, which was Q4 2023.

In Europe, the incentives include a year of free Supercharging and heavy discounts on inventory vehicles.

In the US, there are also good inventory discounts, 3 months of free Supercharger and Full Self-Driving subscription, FSD transfer, and more.

More recently, Tesla also slashed the lease price of the base Model Y and even offered discounted home charging under Tesla Electric for those taking delivery of new vehicles.

And everywhere, Tesla is heavily subsidizing loans with lower interest rates. That has been the main incentive in China, Tesla’s biggest market, until now.

Tesla’s New Discount in China

Today, Tesla announced that it is offering a ¥10,000, the equivalent of $1,380 USD, discount on the final payment for new Model Y vehicles:

The new discount can be combined with Tesla’s subsidized 0% interest financing, which has been Tesla’s main incentive in China all year.

Electrek’s Take

Based on insurance data, Tesla is tracking ahead of last year’s deliveries in China, but it is going to need to beat its last record by a significant margin to make sure not to be down for the whole year.

Model Y is Tesla’s most popular vehicle, but Tesla is also going against the expectation of the design refresh coming early next year, which can negatively affect demand.

This discount is likely to combat that and maintain Tesla’s current good momentum in China.

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Update: Hyundai and Kia are now recalling more than 200K EVs

Published

2 hours ago

November 25, 2024

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Update: Hyundai and Kia are now recalling more than 200K EVs

Hyundai-IONIQ-6-refresh — 2024 Hyundai IONIQ 6 (Source: Hyundai)

We now have more details on the massive recall, which just keeps growing. Hyundai and now Kia are recalling more than 208,000 electric vehicles in Canada and the US to fix a problem with the loss of driving power, which can increase the risk of a crash.

For the second time this year, the automakers are recalling huge swathes of EVs and other “electrified” vehicles in North America, citing concerns about a loss of driving power, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said on Friday.

In the US, Hyundai is recalling 145,235 EVs, including the 2022 through 2024 Ioniq 5, the 2023 through 2025 Ioniq 6, GV60 and GV70, and the 2023 and 2024 G80. In Canada, Hyundai is recalling 34,529 vehicles that were produced between March and November of this year, according to Automotive News Canada.

As for Kia, the recall includes close to 63,000 Kia EV 6 vehicles from 2022 through 2024 in the US, but the company has yet to offer details on its Canada recall.

Kia-EV-sales-goal — Kia EV6 (Source: Kia)

It looks like the issue stems from “the integrated charging control units in these vehicles, which may become damaged and fail to charge the 12-volt battery. This malfunction could lead to a complete loss of drive power, posing safety risks for drivers,” the NHTSA stated.

Back in March, Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis issued a similar recall for 147,110 electric vehicles – that recall centered, again, around damaged integrated charging control units failing to charge the battery.

The South Korea automaker has said that all owners of affected vehicles will be notified by letter mail on the next steps to take. This will involve bringing your vehicle to one of the company’s dealers to inspect and replace the charging unit and its fuse if necessary, along with performing a software update for the charging units.

2025-Hyundai-IONIQ-5-prices — 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 (Source: Hyundai)

Importantly, no crashes, injuries, fatalities, or fires due to this issue have been reported in the US or Canada, Hyundai reported.

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Environment

Curious Tesla vehicles under covers raises some questions

Published

3 hours ago

November 25, 2024

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Curious Tesla vehicles under covers raises some questions

A group of Tesla vehicles spotted under covers at the automaker’s test track at the Fremont factory is raising some questions.

Tesla has a very small test track on the ground of its first factory, Tesla Fremont, in California.

Now and again, people fly drones over the factory and catch glimpses of new cars being tested. Youtuber ‘Met God in Wilderness’ is one of those drone pilots who regularly fly over the factory and while he didn’t catch vehicle being tested, he did catch some curious vehicles under covers next to the track:

[embedded content]

The vehicles are all covered, and therefore, it’s hard to tell exactly what they are, but the different shapes are intriguing and raise some questions.

It looks like three, maybe four, different kinds of vehicles:

We know that Tesla is working on three new specific vehicles: a Model Y design refresh, and two new cheaper models based on Model 3 and Model Y.

All three vehicles are expected to be unveiled early next year.

Electrek’s Take

At the risk of stating the obvious, getting much information from vehicles hidden under cover can be hard. It’s even possible that some of those have shape camouflage, which is sometimes used by automakers – although I don’t remember Tesla ever using that.

So here are my best guesses. Take them for what they are: guesses.

The most interesting ones to me are the first two on the left in the picture above. The last vehicle on the left looks like it could be a smaller Model 3.: