A 120-loss team?! A Yankee shortstop topping Jeter?! Our hottest hot takes two weeks into the MLB season
We are two weeks into the 2024 MLB season, and teams have played about a dozen of their 162 games. While that isn’t enough for bold declarations, we’re not about to let that stop us.
As we do every year at this time, we asked our MLB experts to go all-in on one thing they’ve noticed this season by making a prediction based on the small sample size. They were allowed to pick anything they wanted with two ground rules: It had to be bold, and it had to be something they actually believe could happen.
Some of our predictors brought the heat, while others have taken a mild approach, so we have taken the liberty of ranking the predictions — and identifying their hot sauce equivalent.
Take a walk on the mild side
Kiley McDaniel: Four pitchers will shake up the Cy Young leaderboard
I’ll pick some pitcher breakouts. Royals LHP Cole Ragans will post a 4+ WAR season and finish in the Top 8 in the American League Cy Young voting. Garrett Crochet, Jared Jones and Chris Sale will all post 3+ WAR seasons with Jones grabbing a top 5 National League Rookie of the Year finish. Ragans broke out last year and I think he’ll build on that with more innings. Crochet has made three big league starts and Jones has made just two, but I’m pushing my chips to the middle that what they’ve done is for real. I’m hoping Crochet will post enough innings to hold up his end of my prediction. That is also the question for Sale, but his velocity so far this season is his best since 2018.
Hot sauce equivalent: The house sampler. Individually, any of these could have seemed bold. But you’ve left yourself the easy out of simply picking the one that comes true to point out you were right.
Eric Karabell: The Dodgers will make RBI history
No MLB team has had more than five players with 100 RBI in one season. The 1936 Yankees were the last with five, thanks to a lineup featuring Lou Gehrig and Joe DiMaggio. Last season’s Dodgers became the fourth team this century with four such players — and this year, I predict they’ll pass those Yankees with six. This is an historic lineup off to a great start, led by Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, and there will be ample run producing scenarios for Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez and Max Muncy.
Hot sauce equivalent: Frank’s Red Hot. Look, we appreciate the classics too, and you caught our attention with a mention of names like Gehrig and DiMaggio. But at the end of the day, you are predicting two more players to reach a milestone that four players in the same lineup did a year ago — and that’s more mild than spicy.
We’re heating up
Buster Olney: The Mets won’t contend again this year — or any time soon.
What we’re seeing early this year are red flags that, despite carrying the highest payroll in baseball, the Mets may not be competitive this year — but more importantly, also not for years to come. Their rotation is currently built on older veterans signed to short-term deals, and their farm system is largely void of high-end pitching prospects. By the time the Mets can rebuild their organizational pitching, their core position-player group could be on its collective downslope. They are off to a slow start, and what we see on the horizon looks bleak, too.
Hot sauce equivalent: Homemade. This hot take doesn’t follow a recipe you’d see for sale in any store, but you took it and made it your own.
AJ Mass: The New York Mets will make the playoffs in 2024 … And the New York Yankees will not.
Are the Yankees a better team than the Mets? Absolutely, but they also play in a division where (as of April 10) all five teams were at .500 or better and it’s likely to be a tight race all season long. Plus, they’ve already lost Jonathan Loáisiga for the season from a not-so-scary bullpen. Despite starting off 10-2, five of those wins were one-run affairs, and this stacked lineup has already been shut out twice.
Meanwhile, Flushing’s Finest spotted the rest of the NL five games to start the season (two of those losses coming in extras) and the Mets are still sitting just two games back of the last wild-card spot. Edwin Díaz is all the way back and there’s no “sword of Damocles” hanging over this patchwork rotation where the status of one injured ace could dash all postseason hopes.
Yankees win 90 and start golfing early. Mets win 83 and still see October action.
Hot sauce equivalent: Chili lime. You took two flavors we weren’t quite sure went together and yet you made them work. The only reason this isn’t spicier is, as you admit, this is more about circumstance than the performance of either team.
Paul Hembekides: Anthony Volpe will produce more value in his age-23 season than Derek Jeter did.
In 1997, a 23-year-old Jeter — playing his second full season — slashed .291/.370/.405 (103 OPS+) with 116 runs (4th in AL) and 190 hits (3rd in AL). As (about) a neutral defender at shortstop, Jeter generated 5.0 WAR for a Yankees team that finished 96-66. Volpe is poised to outperform him this season. The glove at shortstop already plays up (+18 career DRS) and his approach at the plate looks dramatically improved. Volpe is making better swing decisions and producing more hard opposite-field contact. He produced 3.3 WAR in an up-and-down rookie season, a figure he could double as a sophomore.
Hot sauce equivalent: Sriracha. Comparing a potential future star favorably to a legend from his team’s past has a certain sweetness to it — and a little kick.
It’s getting hot in here
Bradford Doolittle: The Detroit Tigers will win AL Central
The peak temperature for this take is a little tepid since the division is so bad, but there is a lot of good stuff happening in Detroit. It is off to a good start on the strength of good pitching and great defense. And there are many reasons why the Tigers should get better as the season goes along. Their four under-25 regulars — Spencer Torkelson, Colt Keith, Riley Greene, Parker Meadows — haven’t hit yet but should. If you follow the prospect reports, the news gets really exciting with Jace Jung and other high-upside types pushing their way upward. Beware the Bengal.
Hot sauce equivalent: Hell Fire Detroit Poblano. Picking any team to win the AL Central — outside of the White Sox, of course — is on the mild side, but we like to see the rising Tigers raising the heat in Motown.
Alden Gonzalez: The Pirates will win the NL Central
Granted, the NL Central isn’t the greatest of divisions. But FanGraphs’ projections had the Pirates — 32 years removed from their last division title and perpetually cheap under owner Bob Nutting — finishing last on Opening Day. What about them finishing first? A lot will have to go right, of course. Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes need to emerge as legitimate stars. Henry Davis needs to take major steps in his development. Paul Skenes needs to come up and thrive in the rotation alongside Jared Jones. The supporting group of Bryan Reynolds, David Bednar, Mitch Keller and Jack Suwinski, among others, needs to remain healthy and productive. And, most improbably, ownership needs to greenlight midseason additions to push the Bucs over the hump. It’s a lot. But they don’t call them mild takes.
Hot sauce equivalent: Hammajack OG. Another Central Division pick, another hometown hot sauce.
Jesse Rogers: The White Sox match the 1962 Mets with 120 losses
As hard as it is to win 120 games, it’s just as hard to lose that many. But hear me out: The White Sox turned over their entire pitching staff yet that’s the best part of their team right now. Or should we say, the least worst part of their team. They can’t hit a lick and with Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert down with injuries, and there is no end to their offensive futility in sight.
Finally, new general manager Chris Getz is going to keep ripping the team apart at the seams come July. If the White Sox ever get off that 120 loss pace, they’ll be right back on it over the final two months.
Hot sauce equivalent: Garlic Pepper. Predicting tough times on the South Side this season is as mild as it gets … But 120 losses? That’s got some spice — along with some extra salt.
Feel the fire
Tim Keown: Mike Trout will have a 10-WAR season
The first two weeks of the season feel like a re-introduction: Remember Mike Trout has morphed into remember this Mike Trout? Short sample size and all, he’s back to being the best player in baseball. He’s had three 10-WAR seasons in his career, the last in 2018, and he’s going to have another one this season, in his 14th year in the big leagues, in the year he turns 33. He hasn’t played a full season since 2019, but he’s going to stay healthy, and the Ron Washington-led Angels will finish over .500.
Hot sauce equivalent: Habanero. In a sea of flavors, this is a traditional pick you might have forgotten about that still carries plenty of heat.
Jorge Castillo: Trout won’t finish the season with the Angels
Here are Trout’s career postseason numbers: 1-for-12 with three walks in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Royals in 2014. That’s it. And that’s a travesty. Trout has been loyal to a fault to a franchise that figured out how to not reach the playoffs with two of the five best players in the world. Now Shohei Ohtani is gone, and Trout’s loyalty might be running on E. Trout’s comments in spring training about the Angels’ offseason were illuminating. He didn’t stick to his usual pacific script. No “the team is going in the right direction” like in past years. This time he admitted that he was “pushing, pushing, pushing” owner Arte Moreno and team president John Carpino to make a splash in free agency. That didn’t happen. It isn’t a stretch to think that Trout publicly acknowledging his advocacy is a tell that he isn’t pleased. Ultimately, he’ll have to not only waive his no-trade clause but push, push, push Moreno, who is allergic to rebuilds, to trade him. If the Angels play as expected — and Trout stays healthy — the door will open for Trout to advocate for himself to have a chance to play in October again.
Hot sauce equivalent: Ghost pepper. We just had Angels fans hyped for a return to MVP level for Trout — and then here you are predicting he’ll ghost the Halos midseason.
Tristan Cockcroft: Bobby Witt Jr. wins an MVP, while almost single-handedly leading his Royals to a division title
The AL Central is going to be much more fun this year — well, if your style of “fun” is an 85-win division champion — and Witt and the Royals will play a huge part in why. Witt is already taking the league by storm, en route to his joining Barry Bonds as the only ever 40/40 Gold Glove Award winners.
I was all-in on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as my preseason MVP; I’m pivoting now as I picked the wrong Junior!
And Witt’s Royals — behind the underrated Maikel Garcia, Seth Lugo, MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Cole Ragans and Brady Singer — will play their first October baseball in nine years. What’ll help: Realizing their extreme need to upgrade their bullpen, and midseason deals for Tanner Scott and Carlos Estevez that will provide a boost.
Hot sauce equivalent: K.C. hot BBQ — with a scorpion pepper sprinkled on top. With a deal keeping him in town through 2034, Witt could become as associated with Kansas City as award-winning barbecue so picking him to win MVP this year isn’t that bold. But then you added flames to the fire by picking a team to go from 106 losses to division champs. The only thing keeping this from being even spicier is that division is the AL Central.
Please sign the waiver before reading
David Schoenfield: The Red Sox will represent the American League in the World Series
The Red Sox are off to a nice start thanks to … Pitching and defense? Yep, you read that right. I look at rookie center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela flanked by Jarren Duran and Tyler O’Neill — three guys who can really run — and I’m reminded of the 2013 World Series champs, who had Jacoby Ellsbury in center and Shane Victorino in right, or the 2018 World Series champs, who had outstanding outfield defense with Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi. New pitching coach Andrew Bailey has the staff throwing fewer fastballs, and it’s working wonders as four of the five starters had ERAs under 1.00 through their first two starts (although Nick Pivetta just landed on the IL). Rafael Devers and Triston Casas haven’t even hit yet — but O’Neill has, with six home runs.
And if you’re worried about the pitching depth, well, nobody else has it either, and the Red Sox have a ton of payroll room to make some in-season moves.
That 2013 team came off a losing season and won it all. This team can do the same.
Hot sauce equivalent: Carolina Reaper. Peppers this hot can affect your vision — and maybe that’s what happened here. Are you sure the Red Sox are the AL East team you meant to mention for a World Series pick?
Passan: Elly De La Cruz is going to steal the most bases this century — and become the first 30/80 player in history
In MLB’s modern era, the 80-stolen base mark has been reached just 23 times. The last time it happened was in 1988, when both Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman exceeded it. De La Cruz, the Cincinnati Reds‘ dynamic 22-year-old shortstop, will break that 35-year drought — and on top of that, hit at least 30 home runs.
There are serious impediments to De La Cruz achieving this, beyond his age and the fact that this is his first full season in the major leagues. He strikes out a lot. Like, a lot lot. And getting on base, an imperative to making this prediction come true, is not something at which he excelled in his rookie season, doing so only 30% of the time.
Still, this is a bet on his immense talent — the sprint speed that is the fourth fastest in MLB, the home runs that go 450 feet to dead center. Coleman stole 110 bases with .320 on-base percentage in 1985. Henderson fell two homers short of 30/80 in 1986. It wouldn’t be bold if it wasn’t unlikely, but De La Cruz’s start — six stolen bases and three homers in 12 games — puts him on track.
Hot sauce equivalent: Pepper X. For years, the Carolina Reaper held the title of the world’s hottest pepper because it took until last year for the Guinness Book of Records to acknowledge that Pepper X even existed — which sums up De La Cruz and this hot take perfectly. Until he burst on the scene last summer, would you believe that a 6-foot-5, 200-pound shortstop who throws harder than anyone, runs faster than anyone and has light-tower power exists? Of course not. But De La Cruz is real — and as flamin’ hot as it sounds, he could turn 30/80 into a reality, too.
Sports
‘I didn’t know Kyle Tucker spoke’: Why the ‘silent assassin’ could be MLB’s next $400 million star
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Jesse Rogers
TEN YEARS AGO in Tampa, Kyle Tucker was on the verge of a special achievement: breaking Plant High School’s home run record, held by his brother Preston, then a rookie with the Houston Astros.
Fans and scouts lined the fences at Wade Boggs Field to watch the latest star — as well as pitching prospect Jake Woodford — at a school known for churning out baseball talent. But Tucker hadn’t had a hit in three games and was struggling — at least by his standards — according to his coach, Dennis Braun.
“The entire grass was full from dugout to dugout with scouts, which I’ve never seen before,” Braun recalled from his office. “Kyle hadn’t had a hit in like three games then he nubs a ball back to the pitcher and he didn’t make it to first base.”
Braun — as old-school as they come — wanted to pull Tucker for the lack of hustle, but he also didn’t want to risk hurting his player’s reputation with scouts watching.
“I’m like, ‘son of a b—-,’ but I let him play,” Braun said.
Instead, Braun delivered his message in private after the game, telling Tucker to always run out every ball and to just relax and play his game no matter the stakes.
Message received. In the next game, Tucker went 4-for-4 with two home runs, finishing the season with 31 home runs, breaking his brother’s career mark. Braun understood then what the rest of the baseball world has learned in the years since as Tucker made his ascent from south Florida prep star to a big league outfielder projected to earn $300-$400 million in free agency next offseason.
“Hands down, his sixth tool is he’s both mentally and physically the toughest kid I’ve ever seen,” Braun stated. “It’s not even close.”
That’s saying something, considering who else has walked the halls at Plant High. The Panthers play their home games on a field named after a Hall of Fame third baseman who is still their most famous alum, but they have also produced major leaguers Pete Alonso, Mychal Givens, Woodford, Corey Brown and Darren Clarke along with 2024 first-round pick Jac Caglianone and the Tucker brothers.
The younger Tucker graduated from Plant with the best high school career of them all, culminating in being selected by the Astros with the No. 5 pick in the 2015 MLB draft. Since then, he has improved every year, including a monster half-season in 2024 in which he produced 4.7 fWAR despite being limited to just 78 games because of a shin injury.
After being dealt to Chicago in a blockbuster trade during the offseason, the Cubs hope Tucker can lead them to the playoffs for the first time in a full season since 2018 before he hits free agency. His high school coach believes Tucker — and his sweet swing — will deliver no matter the pressure, just as he always has.
“They started nicknaming him Ted Williams,” Braun said. “That stuck for a while.”
UNLIKE THE HEADLINING stars of recent free agent classes — Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto — Tucker is not a household name. Some of that comes from his quiet personality as you won’t find him bat-flipping or making waves with his postgame comments, but his former teammates insist there is a funny, loose side the public has rarely seen.
“Last year at spring training people got a glimpse of it,” Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena said with a smile. “He got miked up for a whole day. All the fans kept saying, ‘I didn’t know Kyle Tucker spoke.’ But to us it was normal. He was our DJ. He’s very outgoing. He’s funny. I feel like the fans will enjoy that side of him.”
Alonso — high school teammates with Tucker for two seasons — likens his personality to his game. Steady and consistent, from his prep days into his major league career.
“Honestly, he’s the same guy,” Alonso said after a recent spring training game. “He hasn’t changed a bit. I mean, he keeps the game simple. He’s just got this even-keel emotion about him both on and off the field.”
Tucker is aware of his reputation but says he does speak up when he needs to — even if he prefers to let his game do the talking.
“I feel like people think I’m pretty quiet and reserved, which I guess I am, but people probably think I’m more [reserved] than I actually am,” Tucker said recently. “I’m decently outgoing.”
Tucker also has been able to fly under the radar while putting up MVP-level numbers during his career because of all the talent around him. During his seven seasons with the Astros, he played for loaded teams, with stars like Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Yordan Alvarez getting most of the spotlight.
That could change with his new team this year as Tucker now enters the season as undoubtedly the best hitter in his own lineup. But there’s always been a time when Tucker was the center of attention, whether as a prep sensation drawing crowds to a Florida high school or as one of the most coveted players in the majors entering his platform season: It’s whenever he unleashes his swing at a baseball.
“It’s God-given talent,” Yordan Alvarez said through Houston’s team interpreter. “It’s a natural swing. … It hurts me that I’m not going to be sharing time with him. When he’s on a hot streak I think he’s one of the top hitters in baseball.”
IN AN ERA of constant mechanical overhauls to even the game’s best hitters, Tucker’s swing looks just as it did when he was breaking records in high school.
“Why would you mess with Ted Williams?” Braun said with a half-serious laugh, crediting the lack of rotation of his back foot that allows Tucker to stay in the zone longer than most hitters and evokes comparisons to the Splendid Splinter.
The praise of the swing from Tucker’s high school coach is echoed by others who work with elite hitters around the sport.
“It’s only unique in some of the bat shapes he gets in early,” said Troy Snitker, his former hitting coach with the Astros. “The swing itself is elite. It may look a little different in the way he slots the bat and some of the wrist angles and the flatness of his bat but after that it’s an elite swing.”
Tucker’s new hitting coach with the Cubs, Dustin Kelly, agrees with his American League counterpart: “The length that he has, the way he sets [the bat] flatter and creates a ton of rotation. So impressive.”
The effectiveness of Tucker’s swing goes beyond the aesthetic qualities that leave coaches and teammates raving. When he steps to the plate, the quiet, mild-mannered Tucker transforms into something else.
“What makes Kyle Tucker such a great hitter goes beyond the mechanics,” Pena said. “When he steps up to the plate he believes that he’s the greatest hitter on earth. … He’s a player that’s going to go in there, beat you and go home, play some video games, show up the next day and beat you again and keep doing it.
“He’s a silent assassin.”
Tucker’s biggest improvement over the last few seasons has come as much from understanding when not to swing as when to try to drive a pitch. In 2021, his walk rate was just 9.4% — 59th among qualified hitters. It has jumped in every season since, rising all the way to 16.5% last season — third in the majors, behind only Judge and Soto.
“The last couple of years I really tried to hone in on not chasing and trying to just control the strike zone better,” Tucker said. “Because you can be a drastically different player if you change nothing else but just swinging at strikes and not balls. I think I’ve done a better job at that.”
AS HIS ABILITY to lay off of pitches has moved into the class of Judge and Soto, so has Tucker’s potential offseason payday. He nearly broke the arbitration system over the winter as it couldn’t account for the massive numbers he put up in only half a season last year. Tucker and the Cubs finally settled on a contract worth $16.5 million for 2025. If he picks up where he left off, he’ll be due another huge raise when he hits free agency. He and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. appear to be the top free agents in next winter’s class, both likely to command mid-nine-figure deals.
“The numbers are crazy these days but if he has a Tucker-like year, how can he not command $400 million or more?” one executive of a small-market team said. “I’m not saying this either way, but some people believe he’s better than Soto.”
Tucker will turn 29 next winter while Soto signed with the Mets two months after turning 26, so the odds of his deal approaching Soto’s record $765 million contract are nonexistent. Still, those who have shared a dugout with Tucker point to his all-around ability as a difference-maker.
“He was the complete player,” said A.J. Hinch, who managed Tucker in Houston from 2017 to 2019. “He could come up and change the game in a few different ways. On a team that was pretty talented, he still stood out.”
During his time with the Astros, Tucker showed his diverse skill set in making three All-Star teams, winning both a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove, twice belting 30 home runs, stealing 30 bases in 2023 and becoming one of the sport’s elite players.
“I think him and Manny Machado play the game so similarly because the game’s easy for those guys,” Alonso said. “It’s very fluid, very relaxed, because for them it’s just natural. Things came natural [to Tucker] and he just has one of those swings that it plays and it’s always played.
“He’s one of the best in the game, and the only thing that’s going to change about him is his contractual situation, not his play, not his attitude towards the game. He’s just like he was back then.”
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Chris Low
By this time in any postseason, talent and depth typically rise to the top.
Now that we’re down to the Sweet 16 in our 2025 mock NCAA football tournament, that’s apparent with 11 of the 16 teams coming from either the Big Ten or SEC.
All four No. 1 seeds are still alive, and No. 12 seed Memphis has engineered two upsets to get this far. Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik, LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and BYU linebacker Isaiah Glasker all played starring roles in the first two rounds, and Ryan Silverfield has Memphis riding an eight-game winning streak.
To recap, the original seeds were based to a large degree on ESPN’s latest SP+ projections entering the 2025 season, although seeds are a moot point as we tee it back up.
Time to finish the tournament. And the best news? There’s no blaming anything on a committee.
Midwest Regional
Semifinals
(1) Ohio State 28, (5) BYU 23: How do you cover Buckeyes receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate? It’s a question teams asked all season. The Cougars do their best to keep Smith from torching them, but Tate does most of the damage with eight catches for 124 yards and two touchdowns.
(3) Tennessee 34, (2) Oregon 32: The Vols get back to their explosive ways on offense in 2025 with quarterback Nico Iamaleava making a big jump in his third year on campus. Oregon matches that explosiveness with Evan Stewart pulling in two acrobatic catches, leading to a late touchdown. The Ducks get the ball back, but an Arion Carter sack seals the game for Tennessee.
Regional final
(1) Ohio State 31, (3) Tennessee 21: The Vols get another shot at the Buckeyes after getting blown out in Columbus last season in the first round of the playoff. This game is much closer, and Tim Banks’ Tennessee defense holds up most of the way. But the same guy who wreaked havoc on the Vols a year ago does it again. Smith has two of his three touchdown catches in the second half to lead Ohio State to its 10th straight win.
How we got here
First round
(1) Ohio State over (16) Boston College
(2) Oregon over (15) UCF
(3) Tennessee over (14) Pittsburgh
(4) South Carolina over (13) North Carolina
(5) BYU over (12) Colorado
(11) Kentucky over (6) Louisville
(7) TCU over Georgia Tech
(9) Arkansas over (8) Boise State
Second round
(1) Ohio State over (9) Arkansas
(2) Oregon over (7) TCU
(3) Tennessee over (11) Kentucky
(5) BYU over (4) South Carolina
South Regional
Semifinals
(5) Illinois 27, (1) Texas 24: The shocker of the tournament so far, but don’t tell that to Illinois coach Bret Bielema. In his fifth season at Illinois, he had a good feeling about this team all along. The Illini returned 18 starters from their bowl team a year ago, and the two stars on defense, outside linebacker Gabe Jacas and cornerback Xavier Scott, play like stars against a Texas offense that never finds any rhythm.
(2) Notre Dame 31, (3) Miami 20: The infamous “Catholics vs. Convicts” T-shirts are reintroduced to the college football world, and that’s what everybody is talking about in the buildup to this game. Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore steals the show with interceptions in each half, the final one leading to the clinching touchdown for the Irish.
Regional final
(2) Notre Dame 28, (5) Illinois 21: Jeremiyah Love’s development and toughness epitomized Notre Dame’s run to the semifinals last year. He’s even more of a factor this year, and his ability to make big plays and earn the tough yards against a stout Illinois defense is the difference in this Elite Eight matchup. Love’s tackle-breaking 8-yard touchdown run gives the Irish the lead for good and caps a 138-yard rushing night.
How we got here
First round
(1) Texas over (16) Maryland
(2) Notre Dame over (15) California
(3) Miami over (14) Kansas
(4) Florida over (13) James Madison
(5) Illinois over (12) N.C. State
(11) Virginia Tech over (6) Iowa
(7) USC over (10) Minnesota
(8) Texas Tech over (9) Utah
Second round
(1) Texas over (8) Texas Tech
(2) Notre Dame over (7) USC
(3) Miami over (6) Virginia Tech
(5) Illinois over (4) Florida
East Regional
Semifinals
(1) Penn State 35, (12) Memphis 17: Memphis’ improbable run to the Sweet 16 comes to a crushing end as Penn State builds a 21-3 lead, then tees off defensively on a Memphis offense that has to resort to throwing the ball on just about every down. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen each rush for more than 100 yards for the Nittany Lions, who finish with 290 yards on the ground as a team.
(2) Alabama 27, (3) Michigan 23: In a rematch of the Rose Bowl two years ago (Nick Saban’s final game), Alabama gets a little revenge for its old coach. The Crimson Tide are held to a single touchdown in the first half, but the defense keeps them in it. Trailing 20-17 entering the fourth quarter, Alabama finds its running game. Jam Miller erupts for 72 rushing yards in the final quarter, and the Tide bullies their way into the Elite Eight.
Regional final
(2) Alabama 22, (1) Penn State 19: Ty Simpson has waited his turn at quarterback for the Crimson Tide, and even though they don’t light up the scoreboard in this defense-dominated matchup of blue bloods, he doesn’t commit a single turnover and keeps everybody on offense focused. But on Alabama’s final two drives, Simpson throws a 28-yard touchdown pass to put the Tide ahead and later converts a fourth-and-short to put the game away.
How we got here
First round
(1) Penn State over (16) West Virginia
(2) Alabama over (15) Syracuse
(3) Michigan over (14) Army
(4) SMU over (13) Tulane
(12) Memphis over (5) Texas A&M
(11) Wisconsin over (6) Oklahoma
(7) Indiana over (10) Washington
(9) Nebraska over (8) Arizona State
Second round
(1) Penn State over (9) Nebraska
(2) Alabama over (7) Indiana
(3) Michigan over (11) Wisconsin
(12) Memphis over (4) SMU
West Regional
Semifinals
(1) Georgia 35, (4) LSU 31: Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton got a taste of postseason football last year when he filled in for Carson Beck. That experience proves valuable in this back-and-forth game, with Nussmeier throwing three touchdown passes for LSU. But Stockton is able to spread the ball around with Noah Thomas and Zachariah Branch, both transfer receivers, and tight end Oscar Delp all catching touchdown passes.
(2) Clemson 33, (3) Ole Miss 24: Dabo Swinney and Lane Kiffin have been on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to using the transfer portal. Swinney has barely dipped into it at all, and Kiffin has lived in it. Swinney did bring in three transfers this season, and one of them, former Purdue defensive end Will Heldt, makes life miserable for the Ole Miss offensive line. Heldt finishes with two sacks and a forced fumble, and the Tigers march onward.
Regional final
(2) Clemson 31, (1) Georgia 30: Once upon a time, these teams played every year in one of the South’s best nonconference rivalries. The Tigers, who had lost eight of their past nine games against the Bulldogs, fall behind early in this one. But Clemson cornerback Avieon Terrell, flagged for pass interference on the previous possession, intercepts a Stockton pass deep in Clemson territory, leading to a quick touchdown. That’s where the game swings, and the Tigers move a step closer to their third national title in 10 years.
How we got here
First round
(1) Georgia over (16) Oklahoma State
(2) Clemson over (15) Mississippi State
(3) Ole Miss over (14) Cincinnati
(4) LSU over (13) Florida State
(5) Missouri over (12) Rutgers
(11) Vanderbilt over (6) Kansas State
(7) Auburn over (10) Duke
(8) Iowa State over (9) Baylor
Second round
(1) Georgia over (8) Iowa State
(2) Clemson over Auburn (7)
(3) Ole Miss over (11) Vanderbilt
(4) LSU over (5) Missouri
Final Four
(2) Clemson 35, (1) Ohio State 28: The first time these teams played was back in 1978, with Clemson winning 17-15 in the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, Florida. It was a blah game until legendary coach Woody Hayes punched Clemson’s Charlie Bauman on the sideline late in the fourth quarter after Bauman intercepted a pass. Hayes was fired the next day. This national semifinal game doesn’t include any extracurricular fireworks that rise to that level, but Klubnik and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin provide plenty of fireworks on the field. They both pass for more than 300 yards, but freshman running back Gideon Davidson delivers the winning 24-yard touchdown run for the Tigers.
(2) Alabama 33, (2) Notre Dame 27: Here the Irish are knocking on the door of a national championship for the second straight season under Marcus Freeman, who’s the subject of countless reports that NFL teams are lining up to hire him. Freeman never gives any credence to those reports, and his Notre Dame team fights its way back from a two-touchdown deficit. Driving inside the Alabama 45 with just under four minutes remaining, Notre Dame tries to run right at 326-pound defensive tackle Tim Keenan III. Big mistake. Keenan blows up the play, forcing a 5-yard loss. Notre Dame has to punt and never gets the ball back, as Alabama’s offensive line takes control of the game.
National Championship
(2) Alabama 30, (2) Clemson 24: It’s not the first time Swinney has gone up against his alma mater in the national championship game. It happened in 2015 with Alabama winning, again in 2016 with Clemson winning and then in 2018 with the Tigers claiming their second national title under Swinney. So, now, welcome to Part 4. All the gnashing of teeth in Tuscaloosa over Kalen DeBoer’s first season as coach when he lost (gasp) four games has quieted. Alabama is playing its best football of the season with some of its younger players and veterans stepping up in key roles. But it’s the most electrifying player on Alabama’s roster, receiver Ryan Williams, who wins it for the Tide, their 19th “claimed” national championship. After Antonio Williams gives Clemson the lead with a 46-yard touchdown catch down the right sideline, Ryan Williams caps a 77-yard drive for Alabama with a 2-yard touchdown catch on a pick/rub play. Sound familiar? With Clemson fans cursing the play the same way Alabama did back in 2016, DeBoer breaks through in his second season. His statue on the Walk of Champions is up by the start of the 2026 season.
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