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Iranian soldiers take part in an annual military drill in the coast of the Gulf of Oman and near the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

The containership MSC Aries seized by Iran over the weekend marked at least the sixth vessel hijacked by Iran and its proxies in response to the Israel-Gaza war, and it’s adding to the challenges to longstanding freedom of navigation principles that maritime shipping relies on.

Before this weekend’s tanker seizure, the last vessel Iran hijacked was the St. Nikolas on January 1. According to U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, that brought the total number of vessels being held to five, and over 90 crew members hostage. Previous to that, the Iranian-backed Houthis hijacked The Galaxy Leader on November 19.

The latest development has shipping and energy experts bracing for a long-term timeline of uncertainty.

“Iran is in this for the long haul,” said Samir Madani, co-founder of Tankertrackers.com, an independent online service that tracks and reports crude oil shipments in several geographical and geopolitical points of interest.

The MSC Aries was identified by Iran as having a link to Israel. The containership has a carrying capacity of 15,000-TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent containers). MSC chartered the vessel, but it is owned by Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer’s Zodiac Maritime.

MSC declined to comment.

Madani said he does not expect a quick release or negotiation of a release. “They will hold the MSC Aries for a long period. Iran has been holding some tankers for about a year, if not longer now,” he said.

According to Tankertracker information, Madani said the vessel is being held in the Khuran Straits, not too far from three other tankers Iran hijacked: the Advantage Sweet, Niovi, and St. Nikolas.

A Planet Labs satellite image of the location of the MSC Aries and other tankers recently hijacked by Iran.

Planet Labs PBC

As the U.S. considers more sanctions against Iran in response to its recent attack on Israel, Iran has been using the hijacked ships as a means of sanctions retaliation.

“Iran has already seized the Kuwaiti oil that was onboard the Advantage Sweet and has been loaded onto their VLCC supertanker the Navarz. Iran chose to do this as a way to compensate for sanctions,” Madani said.

While the Niovi was empty at the time of the seizure, the St. Nikolas is filled with a million barrels of Iraqi oil.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday that the government may do more to prevent Iran’s ability to export oil despite U.S. sanctions. China’s purchases of Iranian oil in recent years have allowed Iran to keep a positive trade balance.

What to expect from oil prices

According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, imported 11.3 million barrels per day of crude oil in 2023, 10% more than in 2022. Iran ranked second in oil exports to China behind Russia. Customs data indicates that China imported 54% more crude oil (1.1 million b/d) from Malaysia in 2023 than in 2022, with industry analysts speculating that much of the oil shipped from Iran to China was relabeled as originating from countries such as Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman to avoid U.S. sanctions.

The markets continues to assess the risk of further escalation in the military tensions between Israel and Iran, which could lead to a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 30% of the world’s seaborne oil passes, according to JPMorgan. On Tuesday, oil edged higher amid talk of sanctions.

An Iranian blockade would supercharge oil prices, but the risk is low given that the strait has never been closed off despite many threats by Tehran to do so over the past four decades, according to JPMorgan.

“They can’t close the Strait of Hormuz, but they can do significant damage to energy infrastructure, to vessels in the region,” RBC’s head of global commodity strategy and Middle East and North Africa research, Helima Croft, told CNBC on Monday, referring to Iran’s capabilities.

“While I can’t imagine Iran would want to fill up their anchorage with vessels, they want to keep the waters in a constant state of chaos,” Madani said. But with a closure, he said, “They would shoot themselves in the foot since their biggest client is China.”

Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, says the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would result in a spike of Brent crude oil prices to the $120 to $130 range. “This would strain ties with China and India who purchase a significant amount of Persian Gulf oil to meet much of their energy demand.”

Lipow also said Iran might be reluctant to shut the waterway for fear of antagonizing Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, who depend on the strait being open for most of their oil exports. The bigger immediate fear in the oil market, he said, is that the attack by Iran on Israeli territory leading to a counterattack by Israel on Iran damaging oil-producing and exporting facilities.

Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, says the markets need to keep an eye on sanctions from both the US and UN potentially.

In a note to clients, ClearView highlighted that the House of Representatives added several Iran sanctions bills to its calendar for consideration this week, under suspension rules, including new sanctions on Iranian oil exports to China. Book said the House was considering 11 bills in all in response to Iran’s attack on Israel.

“We think most if not all bills could garner (notionally) veto-proof bipartisan support,” the note said. “Passage requires a two-thirds majority of all members present and voting.”

Israel has also asked the U.N. to reinstate multilateral sanctions lifted by the Iran nuclear deal, but for this to happen, France, Germany and the U.K., parties to the nuclear deal, would have to agree. “There are many risks unfolding. The forest is on fire,” Book said.

Sen. Dean Sullivan talks impact of Iran's strikes on Israel and what it means for crude oil prices

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Tesla drops Steam gaming support inside its vehicles

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Tesla drops Steam gaming support inside its vehicles

Tesla is telling new Model S and Model X buyers that they won’t have access to Steam gamin inside their electric vehicles.

Even though Tesla has been investing heavily into integrating video games into its in-car entertainment system, it still surprised many when Tesla said earlier this year that it planned to go as far as integrating Valve’s Steam, an online video game store and distribution platform, in its vehicles.

Steam has such a large library of games, including high performance games that haven’t been integrated into Tesla vehicles before.

In late 2022, Tesla officially launched its Steam Beta native app in new Model S and Model X vehicles.

However, we now learn that Tesla is dropping the feature. The automaker wrote to people taking delivery of new Model S and Model X vehicles:

Tesla is updating the gaming computer in your Model X and your vehicle is no longer capable of playing Steam games. All other entertainment and app functionalities are unaffected.

It doesn’t sound like current owners are affected by the change.

Tesla has been known to drop existing apps in new vehicles while keeping them vehicles already delivered, like the Disney Plus app.

Electrek’s Take

I’m not so surprised. While it was an interesting idea, I’ve always maintained that if you want to game inside your Tesla, you’re better off with a mobile gaming device, whether it be a gaming laptop or Steam Deck or something like that.

Some games are enjoyable inside the Tesla, but it is a limited gaming rig. Maybe it is because it is a car.

I assume that Tesla saw that very few people were using Steam inside its vehicles and dropped it.

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Toyota preps first electric pickup, the Hilux BEV, following BYD Shark PHEV truck launch

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Toyota preps first electric pickup, the Hilux BEV, following BYD Shark PHEV truck launch

Following the launch of BYD’s first pickup, the Shark PHEV, Toyota is testing an all-electric Hilux BEV model. Toyota is preparing to produce its first electric pickup in Thailand by the end of next year.

Toyota to launch its first electric pickup in Thailand

As one of the top-selling pickups globally, the Toyota Hilux is the perfect model to go all-electric. It’s already sold in 180 countries and regions with a wide-reaching market of buyers.

Toyota has been teasing an all-electric version for some time. Although its first “electrified” Hilux Hybrid 48V was introduced last December, it still has a 2.8L diesel engine for a modest 5% fuel efficiency improvement.

The automaker even unveiled a hydrogen fuel cell Hilux prototype last year, so where is the all-electric version?

Speaking to reporters at the Bangkok International Motor Show in March, Toyota Thailand president Noriaki Kamashita confirmed the Hilux EV would roll out by the end of 2025.

“Our intention is to be producing the Hilux BEV over here,” Pras Ganesh, executive vice president of Toyota Motor Asia, confirmed to Reuters this week.

Toyota-first-electric-pickup
Toyota Hilux Revo BEV Concept (Source: Toyota Motor)

Although the first electric Toyota pickup will be aimed at the Thailand market, Toyota is considering exporting the model, according to Ganesh.

Toyota is still working out the kinks ahead of its debut.”The more range I have to put on it, the more battery I have to put on it, which means the weight of the vehicle also becomes significantly heavier, which means the loading can be much less,” Ganesh explained.

Toyota-first-electric-pickup
Toyota HiLux BEV electric pickup (Source: Toyota)

“So is it going to meet the customer’s usage needs?’ is always our biggest issue. We are always trying to understand what they do.”

BYD, Chinese automakers are taking over

Meanwhile, Chinese rival BYD launched its first pickup this week. BYD introduced the Shark, a plug-in hybrid pickup with 100 km (62 mi) NEDC all-electric range. Combined, the Shark PHEV can travel 840 km (522 mi) NEDC range.

BYD-Shark-pickup
BYD Shark launch event (Source: BYD)

BYD launched the Shark in Mexico but plans to take the pickup globally. Available in two versions, the GL model starts at $53,400 (899,980 pesos), while the GS costs $58,100 (969,800 pesos).

According to BYD, the Shark’s fuel consumption (7.5L per 100 km) is 40% lower than that of a full gas-powered engine truck.

At 5,457 mm long, 1,971 mm wide, and 1,925 mm tall, the BYD Shark is a direct rival to Toyota’s top-selling Hilux pickup (5,325 mm long X 1,855 mm wide X 1,815 mm tall).

Electrek’s Take

After traveling across Thailand for my honeymoon over the past few weeks, I can confirm that Toyota Hilux models are everywhere. Japanese automakers like Toyota and Honda are still the most popular on the road.

Having said that, BYD and other Chinese automakers like MG and GWM are making a strong push. Most of the Grab (Thailand’s Uber) that I took were electric MG or BYD vehicles. The most popular models during my travels were the MG4, BYD Atto 3, Ora Good Cat (and Funky Cat), and BYD Dolphin. I also saw a bunch of Teslas and a handful of Volvo EVs.

I even saw a bunch of them on the smaller, less developed islands. Signs everywhere (Airports, highways, markets, etc.) were promoting BYD, MG, XPeng, and other Chinese EVs.

BYD was Thailand’s best-selling EV brand last year, with the Atto 3 being the top-selling electric model. Over 19,200 were delivered, and you can start to see the shift.

Meanwhile, Toyota’s sales are down over 25% in Thailand this year (133,406) after falling another 32% in March.

After breaking ground last March, BYD is expected to finish construction on its first car plant in Thailand. Once up and running, the plant is expected to produce 150,000 vehicles a year as BYD looks to grow its brand in the region.

Toyota will need to hurry to keep up with Thailand’s rapidly evolving auto market, or it risks falling further behind BYD, MG, and GWM.

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NIO’s new low-cost Onvo L60 EV could boost sales to +20,000 per month

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NIO's new low-cost Onvo L60 EV could boost sales to +20,000 per month

The first model of NIO’s new low-cost Onvo brand, the L60 electric SUV, could lead to a sales surge, according to at least one analyst. Aimed at Tesla’s best-selling Model Y, the NIO Onvo L60 could boost sales to over 20,000 per month as an even more affordable ($30K) option.

NIO’s new $30K Onvo L60 could lead to a sales surge

After launching the first EV under its new mass-market Onvo brand this week, starting at $30,500 (219,900 yuan), NIO’s new electric SUV is already attracting analysts’ attention.

In a statement sent to investors overnight, Deutsche Bank (via CnEVPost) analyst Wang Bin’s team said: “Onvo L60 SUV will officially start delivery in Sep. 2024, and the company is targeting Onvo L60 monthly delivery volume of ~10,000 units.”

However, the analyst agreed NIO’s previous target of 20,000 deliveries per month is doable. “Thus we think Nio’s expectation of monthly >20,000 unit delivery is achievable with boost from Onvo.”

At 4,828 mm long, 1,930 mm wide, and 1,616 mm tall, the Onvo L60 will directly rival the Model Y (4,750 mm long X 1,921 mm wide X 1,624 mm tall).

NIO's-Onvo-L60-sales
NIO CEO William Li presents the Onvo L60 electric SUV (Source: NIO)

A true Tesla Y rival?

Starting at $30,500 (219,900 yuan), NIO’s new electric SUV undercuts the Tesla Model Y in China. Tesla’s base RWD Model Y starts at $34,500 (249,900 yuan) with up to 554 km (344 mi) CLTC range.

NIO Onvo L60 vs Tesla Model Y trims Range
(CLTC)
Starting Price
NIO Onvo L60 (60 kWh) 555 km (341 mi) 219,900 yuan ($30,500)
NIO Onvo L60 (90 kWh) 730 km (454 mi) TBD
NIO Onvo L60 (150 kWh) +1,000 km (+621 mi) TBD
Tesla Model Y RWD 554 km (344 mi) 249,900 yuan ($34,600)
Tesla Model Y AWD Long Range 688 km (427 mi) 290,900 yuan ($40,300)
Tesla Model Y AWD Performance 615 km (382 mi) 354,900 yuan ($49,100)
NIO Onvo L60 vs Tesla Model Y

The new NIO Onvo L60 gets over 1,000 km (+621 mi) CLTC range with the top-of-the-line 150 kWh version. However, the base L60, starting at $30,500 (60 kWh battery), gets up to 555 km (341 mi) range.

Tesla’s Long Range AWD Model Y starts at $40,300 (290,900 yuan) with up to 688 km (427 mi) range, while the AWD Performance model costs $49,100 (354,900 yuan).

NIO-Onvo-Tesla
NIO Onvo L60 electric SUV (Source: NIO)

NIO says its new electric SUV has better energy consumption than the Tesla Model Y (12.1 kWh/100km vs. 12.5 kWh/100km) under the same CLTC conditions.

Bin’s team expects NIO to launch six new vehicles next year, generating 300,000 in sales. That would be 25,000 unit sales per month, including NIO’s new Onvo brand.

NIO-Onvo-Tesla
NIO Onvo L60 electric SUV (Source: NIO)

New EVs to accelerate growth

NIO CEO William Li and Alan Ai, president of Onvo, revealed the brand’s second model will be a larger (six or seven-seater) electric SUV. According to CarNewsChina, the second Onvo EV is expected to launch in 2025.

In addition to the two new Onvo EVs, Bin’s team expects four new NIO brand models to roll out next year: the ET9 Sedan, ES8 SUV, and ES7 SUV, all based on its new NT 2.0 platform.

NIO-Onvo-Tesla
NIO Onvo L60 electric SUV (Source: NIO)

“As a result, we forecast Nio’s total 2025 sales volume to increase 62% YoY to 300,000 units,” the note read. The breakdown includes 200,000 NIO brand models and another 100,000 in Onvo sales.

NIO delivered 15,620 vehicles last month, up 135% YOY, with the EC6 (+53%), ES6 (+48%), and ET5 (+52%) all seeing double-digit month-over-month gains.

NIO management told the media this morning that the the development of Onvo’s second EV is almost complete and deliveries will begin next year.

NIO's-Onvo-L60-sales
NIO EC6 (Source: NIO)

“If the product is done right, a single model could sell enough, as Tesla BYD has proven,” Li said. BYD recently launched its own Model Y competitor, the Sea Lion 07, starting at 189,800 ($26,250), undercutting both rival EVs (Check out BYD’s Sea Lion 07 here).

What do you you think? Can NIO’s new Onvo brand match Tesla’s or BYD’s sales? Drop us a comment below to let us know your thoughts.

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