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In a world that has grown more dangerous in recent years, the nightmare scenario of a Third World War is in the public consciousness.

Earlier this year, UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps warned the world could be engulfed by wars involving China, Russia, North Korea and Iran in the next five years, and said we are moving “from a post-war to pre-war world”.

The relief felt at the end of the Cold War in the late ’80s has been replaced with increasing alarm at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and there is outcry at the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.

Sky News spoke to experts about whether World War Three is a possibility – and if we really are living in a “pre-war world”.

Here’s what they had to say…

Pic: AS1 Amber Mayall RAF/PA Wire
Ministry of Defence undated handout photo of F-35B Lightning jets on the flight deck of the Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales as it heads to join the largest Nato exercise since the Cold War
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F-35B Lightning jets on the deck of aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales. Pic: AS1 Amber Mayall RAF/PA Wire

‘The international order is fraying’

Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations thinktank

“The reassuring news is we are not heading towards the Third World War,” he says.

While there are conflicts in tensions in various theatres – Ukraine, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific – these are all “separate and not connected”, according to Mr Lovatt.

“The Gaza war has been going on for six months and is driving regional escalation – Iran’s retaliation against Israel is just the latest example of this.”

There are implications for the international community, including the UK, for example in terms of the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and the impact that has on global trade.

There is, he says, a risk that British troops become sucked into a conflict in the Middle East.

“We need to see these risks in a certain context which is they do impact the UK but they are not existential risks.

“This is also happening at a time when the international order is fraying, is under considerable strain. This is something that we should be very troubled by.”

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‘UK must be prepared for war’

‘More likely now than at any time since the end of the last world war’

Deborah Haynes, Sky News security and defence editor

Given the scale of the turmoil shaking parts of the globe – in particular in Ukraine and the Middle East – the potential for a spark that ignites World War Three already exists.

That does not mean an escalation to global confrontation is inevitable but it is arguably more likely now than at any time since the end of the last world war.

A decision by Iran to launch an unprecedented barrage of missiles and drones against Israel has just raised the stakes even higher.

Israel has vowed to respond though its allies, including the UK and the US, are urging restraint especially as they helped ensure the vast majority of incoming munitions were blasted out of the sky before they could cause harm on the ground.

Should Israel choose to retaliate, the crisis could yet be contained if its return strike is limited and any further Iranian response triggered by such an attack is also curbed. But they are two big ifs.

Pic: UK Ministry of Defence/Reuters
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A Royal Navy helicopter fires flares during NATO exercises. Pic: UK Ministry of Defence/Reuters

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Also, every time even limited military action is taken there is the risk of error or miscalculation that leads to uncontrolled escalation to regional war.

What happens in the Middle East also has a global impact, especially because Iran is backed by Russia and has close ties to China, while Israel’s strongest allies, led by the US, are predominately Western nations.

It means the crisis pitches authoritarian states against democracies – just as the concurrent war in Europe does.

Despite vows of Western support, Russia is slowly gaining ground in Ukraine. Western allies are failing to deliver the weapons and ammunition the Ukrainian military needs – leading to an almost inevitable retreat unless the balance of military strength on the ground changes.

Success by Vladimir Putin in Ukraine may embolden the Russian president, whose country is on a “total war” footing, to test the strength of the NATO alliance by invading a member state.

Again, this would create a direct war between authoritarian Moscow, armed by Iran, North Korea and also with assistance from China, against the West’s NATO alliance.

Evidence that military force has proved effective against Western powers could further harden China’s resolve to make good on a pledge to reunite the island of Taiwan with the mainland even if that means invading.

Such a move could also plunge Asia into conflict, again along the same dividing line of authoritarian states versus democracies.

Pic: AS1 Amber Mayall RAF/PA Wire
Ministry of Defence undated handout photo of F-35B Lightning jets on the flight deck of the Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales as it heads to join the largest Nato exercise since the Cold War
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F-35B Lightning jets on the deck of aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales. Pic: AS1 Amber Mayall RAF/PA Wire

‘Diversion of attention’

Edward R Arnold, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) thinktank

“I think people really need to understand what the North Atlantic Treaty is, which is the foundation of NATO,” he says.

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Mr Arnold argues that the public seem to believe that NATO’s Article 5 (the principle that an attack on one member is treated as an attack on all) is automatic.

“That’s not the case or certainly does not have to be the case… escalation is not automatic and there are measures to de-escalate things.”

Looking to the situation in Ukraine, where NATO has been providing weapons and assistance, he says the risk of a miscommunication between the West and Russia has increased.

“The chances of a miscommunication where one ship accidentally fires on another, I think that goes up.

“We need to be really prepared about what that means.”

Ukrainian servicemen of the 59th Separate Motorised Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, fire a BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system towards Russian troops near a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine April 4, 2024. REUTERS/Sofiia Gatilova
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Ukrainian servicemen fire a BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system (MLRS). Pic: Reuters

He also argues that in some ways the threat of a wider conflict with Russia is reducing at the moment. Kremlin forces are starting to make progress in Ukraine, but the quality of their troops has been degraded significantly such that they are not in a position to present a threat to NATO.

Mr Arnold continued: “Vladimir Putin will be looking pretty closely at what happens in the Middle East: how each nation responds and just the diversion of attention (from Ukraine).

“It’s all helping Putin at the moment because while focused on the Middle East we are not as focused as we have been on Ukraine.”

Russia's President Vladimir Putin speaks with Commander of the Sparta Battalion Artyom Zhoga during a ceremony to present Gold Star medals to service members, bearing the title of Hero of Russia and involved in the country's military campaign in Ukraine, on the eve of Heroes of the Fatherland Day in Moscow, Russia, December 8, 2023. Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY.
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Vladimir Putin speaks with Commander Artyom Zhoga. Pic: Reuters

‘Donald Trump could undermine NATO’

Dr Luigi Scazzieri, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform thinktank

“It depends on your definition of World War Three. A possible conflict between Iran and Israel has the potential to expand into a major military conflagration in the Middle East, with global implications.

“The US would almost certainly be drawn in on Israel’s side and other Western countries, including the UK, may do the same to a lesser extent.

“But their involvement would be limited and this would not be World War Three, not least as Russia can ill-afford to support Iran and because China is unlikely to.

“The impact of such a conflict on Europe would be primarily economic, through further disruption in energy flows and trade.

“The primary pathway to a World War Three scenario remains a direct Western clash with Russia. That scenario will be more likely if Donald Trump wins and undermines NATO, tempting Vladimir Putin into an attack on the Baltics.

“A clash with Russia would also be quite likely if Western forces become involved in supporting Ukraine in frontline combat roles.”

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Helicopter crashes in Hudson River near Manhattan in New York

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Helicopter crashes in Hudson River near Manhattan in New York

Multiple people have died after a helicopter crash in New York’s Hudson River, officials have told Sky’s US partner NBC News.

It’s believed the aircraft was a tourist helicopter on a flight around Manhattan.

New Jersey State Police have said there were two adults, two children and a pilot onboard. It is not known how many people have died.

The New York Fire Department said it received a report of a helicopter in the water at 3.17pm local time (8.17pm UK time). It has units on the scene performing rescue operations, it added.

A New York Fire Department Marine 1 boat departs from Pier 40, Thursday, April 10, 2025, in New York, across from where a helicopter went down in the Hudson River in Jersey City, N.J. (AP Photo/Jennifer Peltz)
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A New York Fire Department boat at the scene. Pic: AP

A man who saw the crash said “the chopper blade flew off”.

“I don’t know what happened to the tail, but it just straight up dropped,” Avi Rakesh told NBC News.

The crash took place in the river near the Holland tunnel, which links lower Manhattan’s Tribeca neighbourhood with Jersey City to its west.

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The crash site is also close to Pier 40, a multiuse facility with sports fields, tourist party boats and a large car park.

First responders walk along Pier 40, Thursday, April 10, 2025, in New York, across from where a helicopter went down in the Hudson River in Jersey City, N.J. (AP Photo/Jennifer Peltz)
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First responders at long Pier 40, near the crash site. Pic: AP

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The logistical and engineering wonder on the frontline of Trump’s global trade war

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The logistical and engineering wonder on the frontline of Trump's global trade war

The market rollercoaster of the past week – the tariffs, the jeopardy, the brinkmanship – has highlighted the remarkable nature of an interconnected world we take for granted.

There are many frontlines in this global trade war and the port of Duluth-Superior is one. It is a logistical and an engineering wonder.

In the northernmost part of the United States, near the border with Canada, there is no seaport anywhere in the world as far inland as this.

A map showing Duluth

The sea is more than 2,000 miles away, to the east, along the Great Lakes-St Lawrence Seaway System, a binational waterway with a shared border between the US and Canada.

On the portside, vast ocean-going vessels are loaded and unloaded with products which make up the lifeblood of the global economy – iron ore for Canada, cement from Turkey, grain for Algeria and shipping containers packed with “Made in China” products for the American market.

Jayson Hron from the Duluth Seaway Port Authority
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Jayson Hron from the Duluth Seaway Port Authority

My guide is Jayson Hron from the Duluth Seaway Port Authority.

“A vessel that is sailing through the seaway to Duluth crosses the international boundary nearly 30 times on that journey,” he tells me.

Duluth-Superior generates $1.6bn (£1.2bn) a year, supports more than 7,000 jobs, and these are nervous times.

“It’s certainly a season of more unpredictability than we’ve seen in the last few years. Unpredictability is bad for ports and bad for supply chains,” Mr Hron says.

Read more:
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Is there method to madness amid market chaos?

Tariffs mean friction and friction is bad for everyone. Approximately 30 million metric tons of waterborne cargo moves through the port each season, placing it among the nation’s top 20 ports in terms of cargo flow.

“Iron ore is the port’s king cargo by tonnage,” Mr Hron says. “It makes up about half of our waterborne tonnage total each year. It is mined 65 miles/104km from the port, on Minnesota’s Iron Range.”

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But not all of the iron ore sails to domestic mills. Almost a third sailed to Canada in 2024, now subject to the trade war levies between the two nations.

“A fifth of our port’s overall waterborne tonnage was Canadian trade in 2024, with the vast majority of it export tonnage from the US to Canada,” Mr Hron says.

Geography combined with American and Canadian engineering over many decades has made this port a logistical wonder. From the high seas, cargo can be imported and exported to and from the heart of the North American continent.

The Federal Yoshino will carry American grain destined for Algeria
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The Federal Yoshino will carry American grain destined for Algeria

On the dockside, the Federal Yoshino is being prepared for her cargo. She will leave here soon with American grain destined for Algeria.

The port straddles two states. The John A Blatnik interstate bridge links Duluth with Superior and Minnesota with Wisconsin.

A network of roads and rails links the port with the country beyond, and an hour to the southeast are the fields of gold in Wisconsin.

Trump suggests farmers can sell more products at home

Last year, soybeans were the biggest export from the US to China, totalling nearly $12.8bn (£10bn) in trade.

Donald Trump has suggested American farmers can make up the difference by selling more of their products at home.

In March, he posted on social media: “To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States. Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!”

But there is no solid domestic market for soybeans – America’s second largest crop. Two-fifths of the exports go to China. No other export market comes close – 11% to Mexico and 9% to the EU – also now facing potential tariff barriers too.

Local farmer Tanner Johnson
Image:
Local farmer Tanner Johnson

‘These fields are rows of gold’

Tanner Johnson is a local farmer and soybean industry representative. He talks regularly to politicians in Washington DC.

“They don’t look like much in your hand. But these fields are rows of gold,” he says.

Farmers across this country voted overwhelmingly for Mr Trump. Is there anxiety? Absolutely.

“I don’t want to put an exact timeline on when doors around here will close. But in the short term I think most farmers can handle it. Long-term – a year, year plus – things are going to look a lot more bleak around here,” Mr Johnson tells me.

Here, they mostly seem to hold on to a trust in Mr Trump. There remains a belief that his wild negotiating with their livelihoods will pay off. But it’s high stakes and with an uncertainty that no one needs.

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Donald Trump has finally blinked – but it’s not the stock markets that have forced him to act

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Donald Trump has finally blinked - but it's not the stock markets that have forced him to act

Chalk this one up to the bond vigilantes.

This is the term used periodically to describe investors who push back against what are perceived to be irresponsible fiscal or monetary policies by selling government bonds, in the process pushing up yields, or implied borrowing costs.

Most of the focus on markets in the wake of Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on the rest of the world has, in the last week, been about the calamitous stock market reaction.

This was previously something that was assumed to have been taken seriously by Mr Trump.

During his first term in the White House, the president took the strength of US equities – in particular the S&P 500 – as being a barometer of the success, or otherwise, of his administration.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks, as he signs executive orders and proclamations in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 9, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard
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Donald Trump in the Oval Office today. Pic: Reuters

He had, over the last week, brushed off the sour equity market reaction to his tariffs as being akin to “medicine” that had to be taken to rectify what he perceived as harmful trade imbalances around the world.

But, as ever, it is the bond markets that have forced Mr Trump to blink – and, make no mistake, blink is what he has done.

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To begin with, following the imposition of his tariffs – which were justified by some cockamamie mathematics and a spurious equation complete with Greek characters – bond prices rose as equities sold off.

That was not unusual: big sell-offs in equities, such as those seen in 1987 and in 2008, tend to be accompanied by rallies in bonds.

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What it’s like on the New York stock exchange floor

However, this week has seen something altogether different, with equities continuing to crater and US government bonds following suit.

At the beginning of the week yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds, traditionally seen as the safest of safe haven investments, were at 4.00%.

By early yesterday, they had risen to 4.51%, a huge jump by the standards of most investors. This is important.

The 10-year yield helps determine the interest rate on a whole clutch of financial products important to ordinary Americans, including mortgages, car loans and credit card borrowing.

By pushing up the yield on such a security, the bond investors were doing their stuff. It is not over-egging things to say that this was something akin to what Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng experienced when the latter unveiled his mini-budget in October 2022.

And, as with the aftermath to that event, the violent reaction in bonds was caused by forced selling.

Sky graphic showing the US 30-year treasury yield

Now part of the selling appears to have been down to investors concluding, probably rightly, that Mr Trump’s tariffs would inject a big dose of inflation into the US economy – and inflation is the enemy of all bond investors.

Part of it appears to be due to the fact the US Treasury had on Tuesday suffered the weakest demand in nearly 18 months for $58bn worth of three-year bonds that it was trying to sell.

But in this particular case, the selling appears to have been primarily due to investors, chiefly hedge funds, unwinding what are known as ‘basis trades’ – in simple terms a strategy used to profit from the difference between a bond priced at, say, $100 and a futures contract for that same bond priced at, say, $105.

In ordinary circumstances, a hedge fund might buy the bond at $100 and sell the futures contract at $105 and make a profit when the two prices converge, in what is normally a relatively risk-free trade.

So risk-free, in fact, that hedge funds will ‘leverage’ – or borrow heavily – themselves to maximise potential returns.

The sudden and violent fall in US Treasuries this week reflected the fact that hedge funds were having to close those trades by selling Treasuries.

More from Sky News:
On the frontline of Trump’s global trade war

The more ‘nuclear’ options China could turn to

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Trump freezes tariffs at 10% – except China

Confronted by a potential hike in borrowing costs for millions of American homeowners, consumers and businesses, the White House has decided to rein back its tariffs, rightly so.

It was immediately rewarded by a spectacular rally in equity markets – the Nasdaq enjoyed its second-best-ever day, and its best since 2001, while the S&P 500 enjoyed its third-best session since World War Two – and by a rally in US Treasuries.

The influential Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs immediately trimmed its forecast of the probability of a US recession this year from 65% to 45%.

Sky graphic showing the Nasdaq composite across the past fortnight

Of course, Mr Trump will not admit he has blinked, claiming last night some investors had got “a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid”.

And it is perfectly possible that markets face more volatile days ahead: the spectre of Mr Trump’s tariffs being reinstated 90 days from now still looms and a full-blown trade war between the US and China is now raging.

But Mr Trump has blinked. The bond vigilantes have brought him to heel. This president, who by his aggressive use of emergency executive powers had appeared to be more powerful than any of his predecessors, will never seem quite so powerful again.

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