Are we heading for World War Three? Experts give their verdicts

Published

1 month ago

April 16, 2024

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In a world that has grown more dangerous in recent years, the nightmare scenario of a Third World War is in the public consciousness.

Earlier this year, UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps warned the world could be engulfed by wars involving China, Russia, North Korea and Iran in the next five years, and said we are moving “from a post-war to pre-war world”.

The relief felt at the end of the Cold War in the late ’80s has been replaced with increasing alarm at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and there is outcry at the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.

Sky News spoke to experts about whether World War Three is a possibility – and if we really are living in a “pre-war world”.

Here’s what they had to say…

‘The international order is fraying’

Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations thinktank

“The reassuring news is we are not heading towards the Third World War,” he says.

While there are conflicts in tensions in various theatres – Ukraine, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific – these are all “separate and not connected”, according to Mr Lovatt.

“The Gaza war has been going on for six months and is driving regional escalation – Iran’s retaliation against Israel is just the latest example of this.”

There are implications for the international community, including the UK, for example in terms of the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and the impact that has on global trade.

There is, he says, a risk that British troops become sucked into a conflict in the Middle East.

“We need to see these risks in a certain context which is they do impact the UK but they are not existential risks.

“This is also happening at a time when the international order is fraying, is under considerable strain. This is something that we should be very troubled by.”

‘More likely now than at any time since the end of the last world war’

Deborah Haynes, Sky News security and defence editor

Given the scale of the turmoil shaking parts of the globe – in particular in Ukraine and the Middle East – the potential for a spark that ignites World War Three already exists.

That does not mean an escalation to global confrontation is inevitable but it is arguably more likely now than at any time since the end of the last world war.

A decision by Iran to launch an unprecedented barrage of missiles and drones against Israel has just raised the stakes even higher.

Israel has vowed to respond though its allies, including the UK and the US, are urging restraint especially as they helped ensure the vast majority of incoming munitions were blasted out of the sky before they could cause harm on the ground.

Should Israel choose to retaliate, the crisis could yet be contained if its return strike is limited and any further Iranian response triggered by such an attack is also curbed. But they are two big ifs.

Also, every time even limited military action is taken there is the risk of error or miscalculation that leads to uncontrolled escalation to regional war.

What happens in the Middle East also has a global impact, especially because Iran is backed by Russia and has close ties to China, while Israel’s strongest allies, led by the US, are predominately Western nations.

It means the crisis pitches authoritarian states against democracies – just as the concurrent war in Europe does.

Despite vows of Western support, Russia is slowly gaining ground in Ukraine. Western allies are failing to deliver the weapons and ammunition the Ukrainian military needs – leading to an almost inevitable retreat unless the balance of military strength on the ground changes.

Success by Vladimir Putin in Ukraine may embolden the Russian president, whose country is on a “total war” footing, to test the strength of the NATO alliance by invading a member state.

Again, this would create a direct war between authoritarian Moscow, armed by Iran, North Korea and also with assistance from China, against the West’s NATO alliance.

Evidence that military force has proved effective against Western powers could further harden China’s resolve to make good on a pledge to reunite the island of Taiwan with the mainland even if that means invading.

Such a move could also plunge Asia into conflict, again along the same dividing line of authoritarian states versus democracies.

‘Diversion of attention’

Edward R Arnold, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) thinktank

“I think people really need to understand what the North Atlantic Treaty is, which is the foundation of NATO,” he says.

Mr Arnold argues that the public seem to believe that NATO’s Article 5 (the principle that an attack on one member is treated as an attack on all) is automatic.

“That’s not the case or certainly does not have to be the case… escalation is not automatic and there are measures to de-escalate things.”

Looking to the situation in Ukraine, where NATO has been providing weapons and assistance, he says the risk of a miscommunication between the West and Russia has increased.

“The chances of a miscommunication where one ship accidentally fires on another, I think that goes up.

“We need to be really prepared about what that means.”

He also argues that in some ways the threat of a wider conflict with Russia is reducing at the moment. Kremlin forces are starting to make progress in Ukraine, but the quality of their troops has been degraded significantly such that they are not in a position to present a threat to NATO.

Mr Arnold continued: “Vladimir Putin will be looking pretty closely at what happens in the Middle East: how each nation responds and just the diversion of attention (from Ukraine).

“It’s all helping Putin at the moment because while focused on the Middle East we are not as focused as we have been on Ukraine.”

‘Donald Trump could undermine NATO’

Dr Luigi Scazzieri, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform thinktank

“It depends on your definition of World War Three. A possible conflict between Iran and Israel has the potential to expand into a major military conflagration in the Middle East, with global implications.

“The US would almost certainly be drawn in on Israel’s side and other Western countries, including the UK, may do the same to a lesser extent.

“But their involvement would be limited and this would not be World War Three, not least as Russia can ill-afford to support Iran and because China is unlikely to.

“The impact of such a conflict on Europe would be primarily economic, through further disruption in energy flows and trade.

“The primary pathway to a World War Three scenario remains a direct Western clash with Russia. That scenario will be more likely if Donald Trump wins and undermines NATO, tempting Vladimir Putin into an attack on the Baltics.

“A clash with Russia would also be quite likely if Western forces become involved in supporting Ukraine in frontline combat roles.”

US

Donald Trump trial star witness admits stealing from ex-US president’s company

Published

11 hours ago

May 20, 2024

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Donald Trump trial star witness admits stealing from ex-US president's company

A former lawyer for Donald Trump has admitted to jurors in the Republican’s hush money trial that he stole tens of thousands of dollars from his then-boss’s company.

The landmark trial returned with defence cross-examination of Michael Cohen, whose testimony last week directly tied Trump to the alleged hush money scheme.

Defence lawyers have questioned Cohen for hours about his criminal history and past lies to paint him as a serial liar who is on a revenge campaign aimed at taking down Trump.

While being pressed by defence lawyer Todd Blanche, Cohen admitted he pocketed cash that was supposed to be reimbursement for a $50,000 payment he claimed he had shelled out to a technology firm.

But Mr Cohen actually gave the technology firm just $20,000, he said.

“So you stole from the Trump Organisation,” Mr Blanche asked.

“Yes, sir,” Mr Cohen replied.

Mr Cohen said he never paid the Trump Organisation back. He has never been charged with stealing from Trump’s company.

He is the last prosecution witness, and it is not yet clear whether Trump’s lawyers will call any witnesses, let alone the presumptive Republican presidential nominee himself.

Jurors could begin deliberating as soon as next week to decide whether Trump is guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the first criminal trial of a former US president.

The charges stem from internal Trump Organisation records where payments to Cohen were marked as legal expenses, when prosecutors say they were really reimbursements for porn star Stormy Daniels’ hush money payment.

Trump has pleaded not guilty. His lawyers say there was nothing criminal about the Daniels deal or the way Cohen was paid.

“There’s no crime,” Trump told reporters after arriving at the courthouse on Monday. “We paid a legal expense. You know what it’s marked down as? A legal expense.”

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office is expected to rest its case once Mr Cohen is off the stand, but prosecutors could call rebuttal witnesses if Trump’s lawyers put on witnesses of their own.

Judge Juan M Merchan has said he expects closing arguments to happen on 28 May.

Cohen is the prosecutors’ most important witness, but he is also vulnerable to attack.

The now-disbarred attorney has admitted on the witness stand to previously lying under oath and other falsehoods, many of which he claims were meant to protect Trump.

Cohen served prison time after pleading guilty to various federal charges, including lying to Congress and a bank and engaging in campaign finance violations related to the hush money scheme.

And he has made millions of dollars off critical books about the former president, whom he regularly slams on social media in often profane terms.

US

P Diddy: Stars react to video showing rapper attacking Cassie Ventura in hotel hallway

Published

11 hours ago

May 20, 2024

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P Diddy: Stars react to video showing rapper attacking Cassie Ventura in hotel hallway

Stars have hit out at rapper P Diddy following the release of CCTV footage showing him attacking singer Cassie Ventura in a hotel hallway in 2016.

Warning: This story includes images readers may find distressing

The video, which was obtained by CNN, was shot on 5 March eight years ago and shows the 54-year-old – whose real name is Sean Combs – shirtless and wearing just a white towel and brightly coloured socks, punching and kicking Ventura.

The R&B singer, whose legal name is Cassandra Ventura, was his protege and girlfriend at the time.

The footage also shows Combs shoving and dragging her across the floor, as well as throwing a glass vase in her direction.

It closely resembles the description of an incident at the now-closed InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles described in a lawsuit filed by Cassie last year.

Commenting on the video on X, formerly known as Twitter, actress Emily Ratajkowski, wrote: “Monster”.

Fellow rapper 50 Cent, whose real name is Curtis Jackson, shared the video, writing sarcastically: “Now I’m sure Puffy didn’t do it, he is innocent this proves nothing! This is what his lawyers are gonna say, God help us all.”

Jackson also re-posted a screenshot of a statement shared by Combs in December last year, denying allegations against him and accusing those making them of “looking for a quick payday”.

50 Cent wrote: “The lie detector test has determined this was a lie…”

He also shared a statement from LA police which called the footage “extremely disturbing and difficult to watch,” but explained that it happened too long ago to be prosecuted.

California law has a one-year statute of limitations for assault.

The husband of Ventura, Alex Fine, shared a lengthy statement on Instagram titled “Letter to women and children,” calling out men who perpetrate violence against women.

‘Men who hurt women hate women’

He wrote: “Men who hit women aren’t men. Men who enable it and protect those people aren’t men…

“Hold the women in your life with the utmost regard. Men who hurt women hate women.”

The personal trainer also shared the number of a domestic abuse helpline, urging those who need help to call.

Meanwhile, lawyers representing Ventura branded Combs’s apology “pathetic,” after he shared a short video on social media on Sunday, saying he was “truly sorry,” and was “disgusted” by his own behaviour.

‘Disingenuous words’

Meredith Firetog, who is a partner at Wigdor LLP, said in a statement: “Combs’ most recent statement is more about himself than the many people he has hurt.

“When Cassie and multiple other women came forward, he denied everything and suggested that his victims were looking for a payday.

“That he was only compelled to ‘apologize’ once his repeated denials were proven false shows his pathetic desperation, and no one will be swayed by his disingenuous words.”

‘Leave god and mercy out of this’

US singer and reality star Aubrey O’Day, who previously worked with Combs, also hit out at Combs’s apology video, writing on X: “Diddy did not apologize to Cassie. He apologized to the world for seeing what he did… Leave god and mercy out of this, they aren’t present here, and you know it.”

It is the first time Combs has responded directly to allegations of physical and sexual violence levelled at him in recent months.

Multiple claims

In March, his homes in Los Angeles and Miami were raided by Homeland Security as part of an ongoing sex trafficking investigation by federal authorities in New York.

In April, Combs was named in a lawsuit that alleges his son sexually assaulted a woman working on a yacht chartered by his father.

Ventura, who began dating Combs a few years after meeting him in 2005, and split with him in 2019, sued him in November, alleging she was trafficked, raped, plied with drugs and beaten by Combs over a 10-year period.

The lawsuit claimed he forced her to have sex with male prostitutes while he filmed them. The case was settled the day after it was filed.

Combs has previously denied the allegations in the lawsuits and his lawyers have said he denies any wrongdoing.

US

Man jailed for life for murdering wife by burying her alive in Arizona

Published

15 hours ago

May 20, 2024

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Man jailed for life for murdering wife by burying her alive in Arizona

An Arizona man who buried his wife alive in a hand-dug grave near their home has been jailed for life.

Seven years after the killing, David Pagniano pleaded guilty to murdering his wife before his trial was due to start and allowed a judge to determine his sentence without a plea agreement.

The 62-year-old was handed a life sentence without the possibility of parole, meaning he will die in prison.

He was also sentenced on 9 May to 16-and-a-half years for kidnapping, forgery and fraud, according to the Yavapai County Attorney’s Office.

“My office pursued the death penalty in this case because of the horrific circumstances surrounding the abduction and murder of a young mother,” County Attorney Dennis McGrane said in a statement.

Authorities said 39-year-old Sandra Pagniano vanished while she was in the process of divorcing her husband in May 2017.

They said the pair were separated but still living in the same home with their two young daughters.

Ms Pagniano’s body was found bound and gagged in packing tape inside a grave in a rural area north of Prescott.

The county medical examiner’s office confirmed she had been buried alive.

Victim may have been conscious for up to five minutes

Officials said evidence showed she vigorously struggled while she was in the grave and may have been conscious for up to five minutes.

In addition, mobile phone evidence showed Pagniano was in the gravesite area days before his wife went missing and the night of the kidnapping.

Forensic examination of notes revealed they were fake

Detectives recovered two notes that were filed in the divorce case following Mrs Pagniano’s disappearance, purportedly written by her.

The notes said she was leaving her husband and giving him her vehicles, house and custody of their children.

But authorities said a forensic examination of the notes revealed they were written by Pagniano.

A grand jury indicted him on a charge of first-degree murder after his wife’s body was discovered in a remote area 10 miles (16km) northwest of the family home near Prescott in north-central Arizona.