Lebanon is balanced as though on an earthquake faultline right now – whatever Israel decides to do next will have massive repercussions throughout the entire region.
That’s how critical the situation is in Lebanon and the surrounding countries, as described by one seasoned Lebanese political analyst.
Khodor Taleb is also the former adviser to three different Lebanese prime ministers, so knows a thing or two about what is at stake.
Mr Taleb is not an isolated voice in warning that an Israeli attack could tip the region into all-out war.
“It will be a huge risk for Israel because it will lead to a big war in the region,” he said.
“It will not be limited to Lebanon. It will definitely spread to Yemen and most probably to the Syrian Golan and the situation will be totally out of control of any international power,” he continued.
“It will be damaging to the whole region.”
His point: Any large-scale Israeli attack against the Lebanese Hezbollah or Iran risks drawing the entire so-called Axis of Resistance into war – and that would involve the Yemeni Houthis, the Iraqi Hezbollah and the various Syrian militias – all of which have links to Iran or Hezbollah.
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3:47
Why the crisis in Yemen is getting worse
‘Revenge will end up with a bigger war’
While Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron was in Israel urging restraint, his Lebanese counterpart was telling us how he is willing him on to succeed.
“I hope the foreign ministers in Tel Aviv or in Jerusalem, wherever they are, they succeed with them [and persuade them not to retaliate]… to take it easy, and not to start a war with Iranians,” Abdullah Bou Habib told Sky News.
“And they started it,” he added. “They were hitting Iran in many Syrian areas and Iran was not retaliating but now after you hit its consulate, you can’t stop them.”
Mr Habib issued his own dire warnings to try to avert a potentially disastrous attack by Israel.
“Any kind of revenge from Israel is going to end up with a bigger war,” he said.
He blamed the inaction by the United Nations (UN) for not definitively condemning the earlier suspected Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus – viewed as the first direct assault by Israel against Iran in more than six months of war in Gaza.
“We are very worried,” the Lebanese foreign minister said.
“We pray for a ceasefire but the UN is not moving in this direction and we are left not able to do anything.”
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3:37
Comparing Israel and Iran’s weapons
Asked whether, like Hezbollah, the Lebanese government welcomed the Iranian drone and missile attack against Israel, he responded: “We don’t welcome it nor do we denounce it.
“We are in a very difficult position because Israel started it. We really want peace – 90% of Lebanese really want peace.”
When questioned about just how much influence the Lebanese government has over Hezbollah, which has a powerful military wing believed to be stronger than the Lebanese army plus a political wing including elected MPs, the foreign minister was brutally frank.
“We don’t have influence with them [Hezbollah] in fighting over Israelis,” he admitted. “And when that happens, we support Hezbollah.”
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But he went on to focus on the nub of the issue: “And other countries… Syria, Jordan… also have problems because of what Israel is doing.
“The UN asked for a two-state solution in 1947, a long time ago, and this is the solution for all the problems in the Middle East.”
Without a two-state solution, he predicted, the Palestinians will never stop fighting.
‘Help us’
In Beirut’s Shatila refugee camp, which is filled with tens of thousands of Palestinians displaced from previous wars with Israel, there is not so much fear of retaliation as frustration at what they view as Western double standards.
Many mentioned to us the lack of Western condemnation of the direct attack on diplomatic soil at the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital – widely accepted to be the work of Israel, though the IDF has never confirmed its responsibility.
“Let them respond,” said political activist Ahed Bahar, referring to an Israeli response to Iran’s attack.
“The Israelis are only a tool of the Americans and take their orders from the US, UK and France,” he said.
The upheaval and high number of casualties in Gaza – caused by Israel’s response to Hamas’s attacks on Israel on 7 October – has drawn together not just Sunnis and Shi’ites in Lebanon but also many of the fractured political parties.
Kazem Hasan, the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) chief in the camp, urged the British people to put more pressure on the UK government to help Palestinians.
“I tell to Britain that the struggle [in Gaza] isn’t against terrorism. It’s about Palestinian rights. We need our own state. Put right what you did wrong so many years ago and help us now.”
Lebanon is waiting on tenterhooks to see what unfolds over the coming hours, days and weeks.
Additional reporting from cameraman Jake Britton, specialist producer Chris Cunningham and Lebanon producer Jihad Jneid.
One person has died and others have been injured during severe turbulence on a plane from London to Singapore – with passengers saying people were “launched into the ceiling”.
Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 from Heathrow was forced to make an emergency landing in Bangkok.
“We can confirm that there are injuries and one fatality on board the Boeing 777-300ER. There were a total of 211 passengers and 18 crew on board,” a statement said.
“Singapore Airlines offers its deepest condolences to the family of the deceased.”
The aircraft took off at 10.38pm UK time on Monday but had to divert to the Thai capital, landing at 3.45pm local time on Tuesday (9.45am UK time).
It was cruising at 37,000ft (11,280m) before dropping 6,000ft (1,830m) in around three minutes, according to flight tracking data.
Passenger Dzafran Azmir, 28, told Reuters news agency: “Suddenly the aircraft starts tilting up and there was shaking so I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop so everyone seated and not wearing seatbelt was launched immediately into the ceiling.”
He added: “Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.”
Social media video showed ambulances lined up at Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi airport.
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Sky’s Asia correspondent Cordelia Lynch, at the airport, said it’s believed as many as 30 people were injured – with local media reporting two people may have died.
“There’s some suggestion the flight hit an air pocket before it had to make this emergency landing,” she said.
“There are some images circulating on social media that show parts of the plane inside and a lot of scattered debris.”
Singapore Airlines said it was working with Thai authorities “to provide the necessary medical assistance” and sending a team to Bangkok to provide extra help.
“Our priority is to provide all possible assistance to all passengers and crew on board the aircraft”, it added.
Singapore is considered a standard-setter for the aviation industry and consistently tops airline awards.
Turbulence-related injuries are the most common type on board passenger planes, according to a 2021 study by the US National Transportation Safety Board.
It found it was responsible for more than a third of accidents between 2009 and 2018, but no aircraft damage.
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There are mechanisms to protect the regime in events like this and the Revolutionary Guard, which was founded in 1979 precisely for that purpose, will be a major player in what comes next.
In the immediate term, vice-president Mohammed Mokhber will assume control and elections will be held within 50 days.
Mokhber isn’t as close to the supreme leader as Raisi was, and won’t enjoy his standing, but he has run much of Khamenei’s finances for years and is credited with helping Iran evade some of the many sanctions levied on it.
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1:12
Drone footage of helicopter crash site
Raisi’s successor will most likely be the chosen candidate of the supreme leader and certainly another ultra-conservative hardliner – a shift back to the moderates is highly unlikely.
Likewise, we shouldn’t expect any significant change in Iran’s foreign activities or involvement with the war in Gaza. It will be business as usual, as much as possible.
However, after years of anti-government demonstrations following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, this might be a moment for the protest movement to rise up and take to the streets again.
Iranian protesters have expressed “joy” over the death of President Ebrahim Raisi who was dubbed the “Butcher of Tehran”.
Speaking to Sky News’ The World With Yalda Hakim, three Iranians spoke on the condition of anonymity over fears of being tracked down by the country’s regime.
A protest leader – who is currently in hiding – suggested Sunday’s crash, that also killed Iran’s foreign minister, was “pre-planned”.
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0:36
Rescuers reach helicopter crash site
“We may not be across everything, but it’s been a known fact for a long time that Raisi was a serious contender to replace the Supreme Leader Khamenei, and perhaps some didn’t want that to happen.
“But all in all, this was very good news.
“All I can say is that the only thing that has made me truly happy over the past five years has been the news of Raisi’s death.”
Mr Raisi’s time in charge included major protests over Mahsa Amini – the woman who died after she was arrested for allegedly not wearing her hijab properly.
The US said Mr Raisi had “blood on his hands” as the former hardline cleric was “a brutal participant in the repression of the Iranian people for nearly four decades”.
From the voices speaking out on The World with Yalda Hakim from inside Iran there was a sense of celebration on the eve of the funeral of their dead president but also a sense of realism.
One dead president the fall of a regime does not make. That is the bitter truth for those brave Iranians speaking out and the millions of Iranians they represent. They detest a man who presided over a brutal crackdown on protests that saw hundreds killed on the streets, and thousands incarcerated, tortured, raped or killed after their arbitrary arrest.
But there are reasons for Iranians to find some hope in the news of the president’s death.
Analysts have compared the Iranian theocratic Islamic regime to the Soviet Union in its dying days.
It is ideologically bankrupt. Its people do not believe in what it stands for anymore. It is morally bankrupt too, after the brutal repression that crushed the Women, Life and Freedom protests. But it remains powerful, with many people on its payroll and it is hard to predict how or when it falls.
Iran’s people want one thing though, and its government the opposite, and that ultimately is impossible to sustain.
Raisi had a unique skill set. He was both a zealous idealogue and an ex-judge. A man who understood how both Iran’s judiciary and presidency works. He combined a passionate belief in the Iranian revolution with an expertise in how its regime operated.
It has been said many times in the last 24 hours that Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, will find another hardliner to replace him. There are plenty more where he came from.
But no one with quite his skills and expertise. That may not be important immediately but at the moment of greatest danger in the not so distant future when Khamenei dies, it could make all the difference.
With no anointed successor, the supreme leader’s passing could usher in a period of instability and weakness for the regime. Raisi was seen as a potential successor but also a powerful stabilising force as president in that perilous hiatus, someone who could hold the ring while the new order is established and power struggles fought out.
Raisi’s death may well not mean immediate change for Iran but it could ultimately hasten its end.
A housewife, who was beaten up for taking parting in the “Woman, Life, Protest” movements, said: “The public hatred towards this regime is not a secret to anyone.
“Raisi’s death proved that the pain that this inflicted on our people will one day hit them back.
“My personal reaction to the death of Raisi… I was very happy.
“I’m not upset at all. Even though I never wish death on anyone, but this man, not only did he not do anything for our nation, but he ordered the death of countless young innocent people.”
Following news of Mr Raisi’s death, US State department spokesperson Matt Miller said the Iranian president “was involved in numerous horrific human rights abuses, including playing a key role in the extra judicial killing of thousands of political prisoners in 1988”.
“Some of the worst human rights abuses occurred during his tenure as president, especially the human rights abuses against the women and girls of Iran,” he added.
The US approach to Iran “will not change” because of Mr Raisi’s death, Mr Miller said.