Mike Trout still wants to win — and only with the Angels
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Alden Gonzalez, ESPN Staff Writer
ON AN UNCOMMONLY crisp afternoon in the middle of December, new Los Angeles Angels manager Ron Washington arrived in Bridgeton, New Jersey, for his first meeting with his most important player. Washington, hired a month earlier, drove up to Mike Trout‘s sprawling, custom-built mansion alongside his two new outfield coaches, Bo Porter and Eric Young Sr. They toured Trout’s expansive basement workout room, put up some shots in the neighboring basketball court and settled into the den for a conversation that lasted close to four hours.
Trout, 32, was coming off a ninth consecutive playoff-less season and a third consecutive injury-shortened one. Less than a week earlier, Shohei Ohtani, who once provided Trout his best chance at the October runs that famously elude him, had left to join the crosstown Los Angeles Dodgers. But Trout, those who attended the meeting said, didn’t spend much time lamenting. He pushed forward. He prodded the new staff about its vision, talked constantly about a desire to run the bases more freely and emphasized what he has consistently said publicly:
That he not only yearns to win, but that he wants to do so with — and only with — the Angels.
“This man has a lot invested in here,” Porter said, “and it showed.”
The speculation around Trout playing somewhere other than the Angels seems to intensify with every irrelevant month of September. It isn’t just fans and pundits; it’s players, coaches, scouts and executives who regularly wonder why the three-time MVP won’t demand a trade from the organization that has thus far failed to capitalize on his prime. Trout, however, remains unwavering in his commitment. Some have taken it as an indication that winning isn’t enough of a priority, a suggestion those who know him scoff at. Nobody, they say, is more competitive. Nobody is more hellbent on changing the narrative.
“He wants to stay,” said Torii Hunter, the longtime major league outfielder who once played with Trout and is now an Angels special assistant. “For the people that say he should get traded — it’s not their decision. It’s Trout’s decision. For people to say that he doesn’t want to win a championship — that’s 100% false. This guy’s always had fire and a desire to win.”
Since their initial meeting, Washington, Porter and Young have seen a man resolute on proving something, to both himself and those around him. In their first spring training together, they talked about him being first in drills and never shy about speaking out and consistently projecting joy. They noticed him setting a tone for everybody else.
“He’s been the one leading the charge out here, every single day — getting after it, having fun in the clubhouse, talking to the players, enjoying the work that we’ve been doing out here,” Washington said from Tempe, Arizona, last month. “His enjoying the work is making everyone else enjoy the work.”
A dozen years ago, Hunter mentored Trout during the historic rookie season that put him on a path to potentially — before injuries slowed the trajectory — become the greatest baseball player who ever lived. Hunter still sees elements of the ebullient 20-year-old who peppered him with questions about center field and ribbed him about his Dallas Cowboys. Now, though, he also sees more fight. More edge. More urgency to not only prove he’s still elite, but that he can do what few believe he can: lead the Ohtani-less Angels into the playoffs.
In Hunter’s words, “His ‘why’ is starting to become bigger.”
IF THERE’S ONE thing almost universally known about Trout, it’s that he’s loyal. It comes from his parents, he said, “and how I was brought up.” It’s a loyalty shown through his family and his closest friends, many of whom date back to grade school, and extends to almost every aspect of his life, most notably, it seems, to his employer. “But it starts when you’re a kid,” Trout said.
Trout grew up idolizing Derek Jeter, the iconic New York Yankees shortstop who famously wore only one uniform. When Trout signed his record-breaking, $426.5 million extension in the spring of 2019, he said following in Jeter’s footsteps was “something — obviously not totally, but something in the back of my mind.”
Those who know Trout have noted over the years that there’s a certain comfort that comes with separating his home life in the Northeast from his baseball life in Southern California, adding that he seems disinterested in the hoopla that would come with playing for the Yankees or Philadelphia Phillies. Some bring up his perpetual optimism — that he always shows up to spring training believing the Angels are capable of winning around him, no matter the circumstances. Others — most recently current Angels closer Carlos Estévez — say Trout will never forget that the Angels drafted him after 21 teams passed on him in the 2009 draft.
As Young said, “I think he has that feeling of responsibility.”
Whatever the reason, Trout wants to stay. He promises. You don’t have to believe him, but he’ll keep saying it.
“It ultimately comes down to what I want, what Jess wants, as a family,” said Trout, referencing his wife and 3-year-old son, who will have a baby brother in a few months. “The overall, outside perspective doesn’t influence me one bit.”
Trout was by far the greatest player in his sport from 2012 to 2019, an eight-year stretch in which he finished within the top two in MVP voting seven times and accumulated 70.5 FanGraphs wins above replacement (second on that list is Max Scherzer, who put up 48.5 fWAR). During that span, the Angels did not win a single postseason game, a reminder of the depth required to thrive in Major League Baseball and the team’s mind-numbing inability to capitalize on such a clear head start.
Ohtani’s emergence as a two-way phenomenon from 2021 to 2023 coincided with Trout playing in only 237 of a potential 486 games because of injuries to his right calf, back and left hand. Anthony Rendon, the third baseman signed to a hefty contract before the 2020 season to be the team’s third star, played in only 30% of his games during that same stretch. The Angels never finished fewer than 17 games out of first place.
Their shortcomings, however, stretch much further. Trout’s only playoff appearance came in 2014, a first-round sweep at the hands of the Kansas City Royals. His last winning season came the year after. And yet his loyalty remains.
“He signed here, he knew what he was getting into, and he wants to stay here,” said former Angels ace Jered Weaver, Trout’s teammate from 2011 to 2016. “Like he said, it would mean even more to win here after people are saying he should leave. ‘We want to see you somewhere else.’ Well, that’s not what he wants. He wants to stay here; I think people should respect that. It’s going to make it even better when they do start winning and win something to be an ‘I told you so’ type thing.”
Trout pushed the front office to sign other stars this offseason, but instead the team scaled back payroll, from a franchise record of $212 million going into 2023 to $170 million in 2024. They lost Ohtani to a heavily deferred 10-year, $700 million contract that Angels owner Arte Moreno declined to match, largely, sources with knowledge of the situation said, because he’s categorically against the concept of deferrals. Pursuits of Blake Snell and J.D. Martinez did not materialize. Their biggest offseason expenditure, $33 million, went to relief pitcher Robert Stephenson, who might have serious arm issues.
And yet Trout arrived in spring training and talked about how much more it would mean to win with the Angels. It was an unintended acknowledgment of the arduous task in front of him, but it seems to have been appreciated.
“Knowing that your best player wants to be here and earn it and win a championship, and that’s been the message and the drive — I just think that really helps everything,” Angels left fielder Taylor Ward said. “It fires me up knowing that stuff.”
Trout struck out against Ohtani and fell just short of a title during last year’s World Baseball Classic, but Team USA’s stirring run energized him, reminding him of what he’d been missing. On the bus ride back from the ballpark after the championship game, Trout sent a text message to his manager at the time, Phil Nevin. “I needed this,” he wrote.
Since then, and probably before it, winning has been Trout’s only driver.
“He’s chasing dead people,” Porter said. “When you look at Mike Trout’s career — if he was to retire today, he’s a first-ballot Hall of Farmer. So, the accolades, I don’t even think that’s a driving force anymore. I think his No. 1 goal is to be the last team standing in the middle of the diamond at this point in his career. And he wants that to happen in an Angels uniform.”
TROUT’S EXPRESSED DESIRE to stay isn’t all that’s preventing him from moving. He entered 2024 with seven years and nearly $250 million remaining on a contract that will pay him through his age-38 season. Couple that with recent injuries, and there are very few teams, if any, that would be willing to take on the money and provide promising young players in return, which the Angels would probably demand if they’re parting with an icon. Trout’s ability to block any trade only limits the market further.
Before any trade is even possible, rival evaluators say, Trout needs a healthy and productive season.
Trout wants to get back to the full version of himself.
Young noticed that during their first meeting four months ago, when he kept hearing one phrase over and over again from Trout — that he wants to get back to “playing baseball.” It means he wants to run again. More specifically, he wants to get back to stealing bases.
“He just wants to be set free,” Young said. “And so I kept hearing that and hearing that, and I go to Wash and I say, ‘Man, I hope you don’t put no damn handcuffs or anything on him. Just let him be free.'”
There isn’t just a single aspect of Trout’s game that makes him great. It’s all of it — the lightning-fast hands, the 80-grade power, the astute strike-zone awareness, the propensity for highlight-reel catches and the elite, game-changing speed. The latter skill has not shown up as prominently in recent years. Trout stole 196 bases from 2012 to 2019, ninth most in the majors. From 2020 to 2023, amid a more conservative game plan, he amassed just six.
Trout spent a lot of time in spring training working with Porter on pitcher tendencies in hopes of creating more opportunities to run. He wants to steal at least 20 bases this year, a pursuit he doesn’t believe to be in conflict with his desire to remain healthy.
“If you’re out there holding back, sometimes it puts you in a worse position,” Trout said. “I’m not saying that’s what happened, but I feel like — if I want to steal a base, I’m going to steal a base.”
Amid the optimism for all that was new, one thing kept nagging at Trout dating back to when he first started seeing live pitching in the middle of February: His head kept moving in the batter’s box. He couldn’t keep it still, a big reason, he explained, for his struggles against fastballs last season. Finally, during a cage session from Miami on April 1, something clicked — if he loads only halfway, rather than all the way back, he remains more still and his head stays locked in, putting him in a better position before unloading his swing. Trout has taken off ever since.
“When I feel like myself at the plate,” Trout said, “no one can stop me.”
Through the Angels’ first 17 games, Trout is slashing .284/.360/.672 with seven home runs and, yep, three stolen bases, already his highest total in five years. Beyond the numbers, though, teammates have noticed a different level of intensity.
“He’s just mad,” Estévez said. “He couldn’t stay healthy last year, and he’s just mad at that.”
ESPN’s ranking of the sport’s top 100 players at the start of the season listed Trout 19th, just below another center fielder, the 23-year-old Julio Rodriguez. Trout’s standing in the game has never been in question like this.
“That’s what happens when you get injured,” Trout said. “If I was out there a full season, I think it’d be a different story. That’s just the way I feel.”
A conservative offseason means the Angels’ best chance at the playoffs lies in-house. They’re hoping that Trout and Rendon can stay healthy. That Washington, two weeks away from his 72nd birthday, still has some magic left in him. And that a promising young nucleus — headlined by catcher Logan O’Hoppe, shortstop Zach Neto and starting pitcher Reid Detmers — will emerge quickly enough to contend within a difficult American League West.
This year will help determine whether the Angels have a winning foundation.
Will it determine whether Trout wants to stay?
“I’m not putting it on one year — this year, that year,” he said. “I have six [years on my contract] after this. I told a lot of people this — if something, I don’t know what it is, but if I feel some type of way, you guys will know.”
So you’ll know when you know?
“Yeah. And it hasn’t even crossed my mind yet.”
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
The 2025 college football season is nearly here, and while we all look forward to 16 weeks of excitement, upsets and general mayhem, there will be even more where that came from once we hit the postseason.
The highlight of that, of course, is the 12-team College Football Playoff, now in its second year. As in last season’s inaugural CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
Although no games have yet been played, ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are nonetheless projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, just to whet your appetite for the fun ahead.
And we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Bonagura: No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Alabama
Bonagura: No. 10 Arizona State at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Notre Dame
Bonagura: No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Oregon
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: There shouldn’t be any major surprises here, just as there shouldn’t be any confidence from anyone talking about what to expect in college football come December while we’re still in August. Here in the era of free agency, it has become even harder to have a good sense of what most teams will truly look like, and anyone who says otherwise is just faking it.
The old formula — last season’s success + returning starters (QB?) = projection — isn’t as reliable as it used to be. That said, the usual suspects have the money to remain at the top of the sport and that matters more than ever.
Schlabach: It’s a crapshoot when you’re picking the 12 best teams in mid-August, but I gave it my best shot. I went with Texas, Clemson, Penn State and Georgia as my top four seeds, even though the Longhorns and Bulldogs will be breaking in new starting quarterbacks (although Arch Manning and Gunner Stockton did get some playing time last year). Both teams had to replace a plethora of star players who were selected in the NFL draft, but few programs have recruited as well as Georgia and Texas in recent seasons. Honestly, I could see one of three teams –Texas, Georgia or Alabama — winning the SEC, and I think many people might be sleeping on the Crimson Tide after they lost four games in Kalen DeBoer’s first season as coach. It was never going to be easy for anyone to replace Nick Saban, and I still believe DeBoer is one of the best coaches in the sport.
I love what Clemson is bringing back on the defensive line, and I think Cade Klubnik is going to be a star. Penn State brings back many of its best players from a team that just missed reaching the CFP National Championship game last season. If Drew Allar takes the next step, the Nittany Lions might be the class of the Big Ten.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Clemson
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU vs. No. 2 Clemson
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: After the 12-team playoff was introduced last year, there was one thing I hammered almost every week in this space: It was ridiculous to give the top four seeds to conference champions. It was a format that punished the No. 1 seed, when one of the main purposes of a seeding system is to reward the best team. (No. 1 Oregon was “rewarded” with a quarterfinal against eventual champion Ohio State.)
The intent was understandable, but good on the powers that be who reversed course after one year and installed the commonsense straight seeding format this year. It will likely mean multiple teams from the same conference will get byes — and that’s fine. In this case, I have two teams from the Big Ten (Penn State and Ohio State), while Mark has two from the SEC (Texas and Georgia).
Schlabach: I had Ohio State, Alabama, LSU and Oregon advancing out of the first-round games. I’m not quite as sold on the Ducks as the other three programs with unproven Dante Moore taking over at quarterback and star receiver Evan Stewart sidelined with a knee injury. Oregon’s defense needs to take another step after allowing 109 points in three games against Ohio State and Penn State (although the Ducks did win two of those games). The Ducks play the Nittany Lions on the road Sept. 27 and they don’t play Ohio State, Illinois or Michigan during the regular season.
If LSU’s defense is markedly better this season, the Tigers could be an SEC title contender. They should have one of the most explosive offenses in the FBS with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and receiver Aaron Anderson returning, plus a handful of playmakers from the transfer portal.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 Clemson
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 1 Texas
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: According to ESPN BET, there are nine teams with odds of between +550 and +1,500 to win the national title. It’s not a perfect science, of course, but there is a high likelihood the eventual champion will come from that group: Ohio State (+550), Texas (+550), Penn State (+650), Georgia (+800), Clemson (+900), Alabama (+1,000), Notre Dame (+1,100), Oregon (+1,400) and LSU (+1,500). If you’re looking for semifinal teams, then this group is also a good place to start.
Schlabach: I have my top four seeds advancing to the semifinals and top two playing in the CFP National Championship game. As we witnessed last year, the 12-team CFP is much more unpredictable, given the long layoffs for the top seeds and teams getting hot at the right time of the season.
The Georgia-Texas matchup in the Fiesta Bowl would be a rematch of last year’s SEC championship game, which the Bulldogs won 22-19 in overtime. The Longhorns also lost to the Bulldogs at home during the regular season in 2024, and they might have to once again figure out a way to get past them to win the SEC. Texas plays at Georgia on Nov. 15 in one of the league’s most anticipated games. A Penn State-Clemson contest in the Peach Bowl would feature two of the game’s best quarterbacks. It would also be an intriguing chess match with former Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Tom Allen joining Dabo Swinney’s staff this season.
I have Clemson and Texas meeting in the national championship game, and I’ll go with the Longhorns to win it all. That’s putting a lot on Arch Manning in his first season as a starter, and the Texas offensive line is going to have to do a better job of protecting the quarterback than it did in big contests last season.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Southern vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Colorado vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. San José State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Jacksonville State
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Ohio
Schlabach: South Florida vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Sam Houston State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Iowa
Schlabach: TCU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Texas State
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Army
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Navy
Schlabach: NC State vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. Cal
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Missouri
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Tennessee
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Boston College
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: BYU vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Ole Miss
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Washington
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. South Carolina
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Virginia vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Colorado
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Texas A&M
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Florida
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Florida
TBD
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
Time TBD, Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: SMU vs. Washington
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Max Olson
There’s no need to wait five months to find out the ending of this upcoming college football season. We can just ask EA Sports’ College Football 26.
We’ve simulated the 2025 season multiple times in Dynasty mode in search of answers to all the big questions. Who’s getting into the 12-team College Football Playoff? Who’s taking home the Heisman Trophy? Which programs can win it all and which ones are heading toward a coaching search?
Trying to gather as much data as possible, we simulated this season 25 times. We didn’t play any of the games, didn’t adjust rosters or ratings and didn’t alter default settings. We put our faith and trust in the game to forecast the future, and the results could be rather astounding. Here is CFB 26’s take on the season ahead.
Who gets into the College Football Playoff?
Over 25 simulations of this 2025 season, 52 different programs earned at least one College Football Playoff appearance. We love to see that chaos.
The teams that most frequently made the playoff probably won’t shock anyone: Georgia (19), Penn State (19), Miami (18), Oregon (17), Texas Tech (17) and Texas (15). Though that’s a lot of love for the Hurricanes, the game was also quite confident in Clemson (14) and Duke (14) earning CFP bids out of the ACC. Notre Dame earned an at-large spot in the CFP in 10 of the 25 seasons.
Some of the most successful programs of the College Football Playoff era had a tougher time consistently contending in these simulations. Defending national champ Ohio State appeared in 11 of the 25 brackets and reached the national championship game just three times. Alabama earned just five CFP bids and never played for a title.
The list of Power 4 teams that made multiple CFP appearances included Baylor, Auburn, Nebraska, Kansas State, Colorado, Mississippi State, Pitt, SMU and Utah. One rather stunning outcome: LSU’s loaded preseason top-10 team made it in only twice.
Every SEC program got into the CFP at least once — except Kentucky. Florida State, North Carolina, BYU, TCU, Iowa, UCLA and Wisconsin were also among the 23 Power 4 teams that made zero playoff appearances in 25 attempts.
Over all these simulations, the game generated multiple scenarios with 9-3 teams making the bracket. In fact, 50% of all at-large bids (35) went to teams with 9-3 records. In four of those seasons, a 9-3 squad — Georgia twice, Ohio State and Oregon once — won the national championship.
In four instances, the virtual committee put a 9-4 team in the bracket. During one extreme season, a CFP featured six SEC teams that included an 8-4 Auburn squad.
The Big Ten scored more CFP bids (87) than the SEC (83) over our 25 sims, put more teams in the semifinals and won more national titles. The ACC outpaced the Big 12 54-40 in CFP bids earned.
Georgia vs. Penn State title race
Fourteen programs won CFP national championships over the 25 simulations, and no one program was playing for national titles every time. But two clearly moved to the front of the pack: Georgia and Penn State.
The Bulldogs reached the semifinals in 12 of their 19 playoff seasons and delivered Kirby Smart’s third national championship in five of their seven national title games. James Franklin’s squad was just as impressive with 11 semifinals, nine trips to the title game and five championships.
Who else took home the trophy? Oregon (three) and Ohio State (two) won multiple national titles, but the mix of programs that won it all once was far more compelling: Clemson, Florida, Illinois, Miami, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and USC.
Just like in real life in 2024, earning a top-four seed and a first-round bye did not prove exceedingly beneficial in these 12-team CFP sims. Only seven top-four seeds won national championships.
Just one No. 1 seed went all the way in a simulation: Oklahoma. John Mateer and the Sooners rolled to a 12-1 season and an SEC title win over Georgia, dominated their first two playoff games and pulled off a 24-16 comeback win over Oregon in the championship.
The chaos brackets
Texas Tech has championship ambitions for 2025 and has invested a ton of money in its roster to construct a contender. In one of our simulations — let’s refer to these as Seasons A through Y, so this was Season O — the Red Raiders made Cody Campbell’s dreams come true with a 15-1 season and the program’s first national championship.
Clemson’s 13-0 season, led by Heisman Trophy winner Cade Klubnik, fell apart in the Orange Bowl with a 44-9 loss to Miami. That upset helped clear the path for the Big 12 champs to take down Indiana and Miami and advance to the title game, where they ran into … Nebraska!
The 10-2 Huskers earned a No. 6 seed, won their first-round home game against Iowa State, defeated old rival Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl and blew out Big Ten champ Penn State in the semifinals. In a showdown between Joey McGuire and his mentor Matt Rhule, the Red Raiders prevailed 35-13.
Season U also delivered an ending that would be deeply dissatisfying to SEC fans. Only three teams from the conference — SEC champ South Carolina, Texas A&M and Georgia — earned CFP bids, and all three were bounced quickly, with No. 12 seed Boise State taking down the Aggies and Gamecocks.
The resulting semifinal featured the Broncos, Penn State, Oregon and Illinois and set up a Big Ten title game rematch in the national championship. Penn State won 54-7 in Indianapolis, but Luke Altmyer and his three-loss Illini squad pulled off a stunner in the title game, a 34-31 victory for the program’s first national title since 1951.
In Season T, Florida started 2-2, with losses to South Florida and Miami, which undoubtedly put virtual Billy Napier’s job in jeopardy. The Gators then went on a 12-game win streak, with DJ Lagway putting up 4,736 total yards and 42 TDs and Jadan Baugh emerging as the nation’s leading rusher. They met 15-0 Clemson in the national title game and spoiled their perfect season with a 27-17 victory.
One more simulation that delivered a compelling finale: Season X had Miami quarterback Carson Beck leading the Hurricanes to a 16-0 season and a 47-26 rout of Georgia in a national championship home game at the Orange Bowl. How’s that for a redemptive arc?
Boise State still the G5 favorite
Even without superstar running back Ashton Jeanty, Boise State was still the clear No. 1 among the Group of 5 teams vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos earned CFP bids in 11 of our simulations, followed by Southern Miss and Tulane getting in four times each. We also saw Arkansas State, Jacksonville State, James Madison, Liberty, South Florida and UNLV nab the No. 12 seed in various seasons.
The G5 earned multiple College Football Playoff bids in just one of the 25 season sims, with Boise State (12-1) and Tulane (11-2) earning the No. 9 and No. 11 seeds, respectively. They nearly got three in that year, too, with Memphis finishing 13th in the final CFP rankings.
Sadly, no G5 teams pulled off a Cinderella run to a national championship. Boise State came close as a No. 12 seed in Season E, with a stunning 44-41 road win at Oregon in double overtime, followed by victories over Tennessee and Texas Tech. But the Broncos ran into an unstoppable USC team, losing 45-10 in the national title game.
Conference title scoreboard
Curious which teams the video game likes to win each conference race? Here’s the breakdown. The SEC race was arguably the most competitive, with nine programs winning the league over our 25 simulations. The biggest surprise was defending national champ Ohio State winning just one Big Ten title despite being one of the highest-rated teams in the game, and the same was true for Alabama and LSU.
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ACC: Miami (11), Clemson (6), Duke (5), Louisville (1), Pitt (1), SMU (1)
Big Ten: Oregon (10), Penn State (8), USC (3), Michigan (2), Indiana (1), Ohio State (1)
Big 12: Texas Tech (11), Arizona State (4), Baylor (2), Colorado (2), Iowa State (2), Kansas State (2), Utah (1), West Virginia (1)
SEC: Georgia (6), Texas (6), Texas A&M (4), Oklahoma (3), Florida (2), Alabama (1), LSU (1), South Carolina (1), Tennessee (1)
American: Tulane (11), Memphis (4), Navy (4), USF (4), North Texas (1), UTSA (1)
Conference USA: Liberty (7), Jacksonville State (5), Florida International (4), Sam Houston (4), Middle Tennessee (2), UTEP (2), Kennesaw State (1)
MAC: Toledo (10), Buffalo (8), Miami (Ohio) (5), Ball State (1), Western Michigan (1)
Mountain West: Boise State (15), UNLV (5), Colorado State (1), Hawaii (1), Nevada (1), San Jose State (1), Wyoming (1)
Sun Belt: Southern Miss (14), James Madison (6), Arkansas State (4), Old Dominion (1)
Who wins the Heisman?
Clemson’s Klubnik has the best chances of taking home the Heisman Trophy this season if these simulations are to be believed. Klubnik is tied for the highest-rated QB in the game and won six Heismans over these 25-season sims. The game has a lot of love for new Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch, too. The speedy USC transfer finished as the nation’s leading receiver in six of these seasons, including a school-record 1,799 receiving yards in one sim, and won the Heisman four times.
Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin, Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar and Oregon’s Makhi Hughes won Heisman Trophies in multiple seasons of our simulation. The list of one-time winners has an impressive variety: Colorado QB Kaidon Salter, Pitt QB Eli Holstein, USC QB Jayden Maiava, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, Louisville RB Isaac Brown and even Miami WR Tony Johnson.
Texas’ Arch Manning did not win the Heisman in any of these seasons and never finished in the top five in Heisman voting, even in the season in which the Longhorns won a national title. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier finished in the top five only once, and Penn State’s Drew Allar did so only twice.
South Florida QB Byrum Brown finished in the top five of Heisman voting in five sims. One season, his top receiver Chas Nimrod finished second for the Heisman. Miami (Ohio) veteran QB Dequan Finn also earned a second-place finish in another season.
The greatest season of all time
Ohio State phenom Jeremiah Smith was a Heisman finalist in 11 of our 25 simulations and won three times, which makes sense given he’s the highest-rated player in the video game. In several of these seasons, Smith put up ridiculous stats and set single-season program records.
In Season V, the sophomore playmaker put together the greatest season by a wide receiver in FBS history. Smith’s final stat line: 170 catches for 2,382 receiving yards and 28 touchdowns.
His quarterback, Sayin, also broke the FBS single-season passing record with 6,312 yards. Yes, they did it over 16 games. But how they did it was more dramatic than their title run in 2024. The Buckeyes went 9-3 with losses to Wisconsin, Penn State and Rutgers. They barely defeated Michigan 20-19 but still got the No. 8 seed in the CFP.
The Buckeyes had to beat Michigan again in a first-round rematch in Columbus, knocked out a 13-0 Oklahoma team in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinals, returned to the championship game and pulled off a 42-35 overtime win over Georgia for back-to-back national titles.
Stars hit the portal
The transfer portal in College Football 26 has expanded and now features thousands of players making moves every season. Huge names such as Texas’ Colin Simmons, Colorado’s Jordan Seaton, Louisville’s Isaac Brown and Minnesota’s Koi Perich, plus a bunch of big-time starting quarterbacks (Rocco Becht, Avery Johnson, Noah Fifita), consistently entered the portal at the end of the season in our 25 simulations. And on rare occasions, it got more improbable.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning hit the portal in three of our 25 simulations after coach Steve Sarkisian left for Michigan (more on that below). Manning stayed in the SEC each time, signing with Georgia in two of the seasons and landing at Alabama in one.
Florida’s Lagway entered the portal in five of our 25 sims with Alabama, Texas and USC emerging as his preferred destinations. In one season, Manning and Lagway made the bizarre decision to team up in Tuscaloosa and compete with Ty Simpson for the starting job.
Season N ended with Texas A&M going 15-1 and defeating Miami to win its first national championship since 1939. And then, for some bizarre reason, Aggies starting QB Marcel Reed entered the portal and transferred to Ole Miss. Oklahoma’s Michael Hawkins Jr. transferred in to replace him in College Station and try to lead a repeat.
Carousel craziness
The addition of real college football head coaches and coordinators makes the coaching carousel in Dynasty mode far more comical in College Football 26. In most of these 25 simulations, the game produced end-of-season coaching changes that would shake up the sport.
In 12 of the 25 seasons, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney replaced Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. It’s worth noting that the Crimson Tide earned just five CFP appearances and took home zero national titles in these simulations. Each time Swinney left, Clemson responded by hiring Shane Beamer from rival South Carolina or hiring Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss.
Michigan was another playoff-or-bust program in these simulations and moved on from Sherrone Moore at the end of 12 of 25 seasons. In 11 of those 12 scenarios, the Wolverines pulled off a stunner and hired Steve Sarkisian from Texas. The one time they didn’t get Sark, they grabbed Oregon’s Dan Lanning.
The Longhorns’ coaching searches typically focused on Kiffin but occasionally resulted in hiring Mike Norvell, Joey McGuire or Kyle Whittingham. In one simulation, they shocked the world and picked Lincoln Riley. In three other sims, Riley left USC and moved back to Norman, Oklahoma, to lead the Sooners.
If you’re rooting for an all-time crazy carousel cycle, Season U stood out. In that simulation, Alabama and Michigan had coaching vacancies after DeBoer and Moore went to the NFL. Michigan hiring Sarkisian led to Norvell at Texas, Jedd Fisch at Florida State, Kyle Whittingham at Washington and Justin Wilcox at Utah. Swinney went to Alabama, Kiffin went to Clemson and Rhett Lashlee replaced him at Ole Miss. Beamer didn’t get the Clemson job but landed at LSU. Matt Campbell filled the South Carolina opening in this scenario, and Brian Kelly landed on his feet at Auburn.
But there’s more! Oklahoma brought back Riley, Brent Venables took over rival Oklahoma State and the Trojans turned to Bret Bielema as their next head coach — right after he led the Illini to the national championship. Eastern Michigan’s Chris Creighton was the lucky coach who took over the defending national champs.
If any of these unthinkable outcomes occur in real life in 2025, just remember: You heard it here first.
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