Rishi Sunak is to increase UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030 as he warns European allies that the continent is at a “turning point” in the face of the growing threats from Russia, Iran and China.
Speaking alongside NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the UK prime minister said he planned to steadily increase defence spending by the end of the decade, rising to 2.4% a year until 2027/28 – then hitting 2.5% by 2030/31.
Funding will rise from £64.6bn in 2024 to £78.2bn in 2028, and then jump to £87bn in 2030/31.
The government said the commitment amounted to an additional £75bn in funding over the next six years and would see the UK remain “by far the second largest defence spender in NATO after the US”.
Making the announcement on a visit to Poland, Mr Sunak said the additional funding represented the “biggest strengthening of our national defence in a generation to meet the challenge of an increasingly dangerous world”.
He revealed a further £10bn would be spent over the next decade on munitions production and modernisation of the armed forces, and that at least 5% of the defence budget would be committed to research and development.
The prime minister said: “An axis of autocratic states like Russia, Iran and China are increasingly working together to undermine democracies and reshape the world order.
“They are also investing heavily in their own militaries and in cyber capabilities and in low-cost technology, like the Shahed attack drones Iran fired towards Israel last weekend.”
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He added that this posed a “direct threat to the lives and livelihoods of people in the UK, as well as across Europe and the wider world”, as he spoke of the need to take “further action now to deter these growing threats”.
Asked by Sky News whether the UK had entered a “pre-war era”, the prime minister said: “We have to recognise that the world… is a more dangerous place”.
But he said the threats from the likes of Russia were “nothing new” – they just came at a new “pace and intensity”, adding: “That’s why it’s important that we make this investment and we make this investment now”.
However, Mr Sunak said the UK was approaching them “from a position of strength and confidence”.
Pointing to Ukraine, he said recent gains by the Russians were equivalent to taking over Basildon and Eastbourne, adding: “The allies are united, defence spending is growing across Europe and Nato has two new members.
“If you take a step back, you know, Russia is not in any way succeeding.”
The prime minister added: “We have been making the right investments. Nato is strong. Our alliance is strong. People are doing the right thing. And as you know… Russia has not succeeded.
“But we can’t be complacent. And that’s why [we are making] the announcement today.”
Today’s commitment comes after growing pressure on the prime minister to increase defence spending in the face of increasing threats from hostile states.
Last month, two serving ministers – Anne-Marie Trevelyan and Tom Tugendhat – publicly urged the government to invest at a “much greater pace”.
The House of Commons’ spending watchdog, the Public Accounts Committee, also warned the gap between the Ministry of Defence’s budget and the cost of the UK’s desired military capabilities had risen by £16.9bn – the largest deficit ever – despite a promised injection of more than £46bn over the next decade.
The increase in defence spending will play well to Mr Sunak’s base in the Conservative Party and comes fresh from his landmark Rwanda legislation being passed, with the prime minister emphatic that a regular rhythm of flights will be taking off from July.
Both announcements are part of a publicity blitz for the embattled leader as he looks to get on the front foot ahead of next week’s local elections, aware that a disastrous night could put him not just back on to his heels, but into free fall.
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But Labour said the Conservatives had “shown time and time again that they cannot be trusted on defence”.
Shadow defence minister John Healey said his party wanted to see “a fully funded plan to reach 2.5%, so would “examine the detail of the announcement closely.
However, he added: “The British public will judge ministers by what they do not what they say.
“Since 2010, the Conservatives have wasted more than £15bn mismanaging defence procurement, shrunk the army to its smallest size since Napoleon, missed their recruitment targets every year, and allowed morale to fall to record lows.
“Labour will conduct a strategic defence and security review in the first year in government to get to grips with the threats we face, the state of our armed forces, and the resources required.”
Sir Keir Starmer has said the Treasury will be “ruthless” in cutting government spending as market turbulence continues.
Responding to a question about the economic situation from Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby, he said: “The number one mission of this government is economic growth.
“And that was run through the budget, but there’s much more that we’re doing on economic growth, pulling those levers of change.”
Both long-term 30-year and the benchmark 10-year government borrowing costs were up on Monday morning, with the 30-year effective interest rate (the gilt yield) reaching a new high of 5.47% – a rate not seen since mid-1998.
The 10-year borrowing cost reached 4.86%, below the 2008 high recorded last Thursday but at the same levels last seen around the global financial crash.
That pushes up costs for the government, with the chancellor put in a position where she could have to break her self-imposed fiscal rules by failing to bring debt down and balance the budget.
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Sterling, which can reflect investors’ confidence in the UK and overall economic health, was also down to a low not seen since October 2023, with £1 buying $1.21.
The dismal economic outlook has prompted warnings mortgage rates could rise in the coming weeks as lenders respond to the turmoil.
In what could be seen as further misery for the British people, the prime minister refused to rule out government spending cuts as he said the Treasury was right to be “ruthless” in cutting spending.
A spending review, due later this year, is expected to require government departments to make efficiency savings worth 5% of their budgets.
Sir Keir told a news conference: “We will be ruthless, as we have been ruthless in the decisions that we’ve taken so far.
“We’ve got clear fiscal rules, and we’re going to keep to those fiscal rules.”
He said the government had “inherited a real mess” of an economy from the Conservative government.
But, he said the government is “going to stick to the fiscal rules”.
“That is a very important thing,” he said.
“We’re determined to bring about that economic stability. And that’s why the fiscal rules are absolutely, absolutely central to what we do.”
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Sir Keir also twice avoided answering whether Rachel Reeves will still be chancellor by the next election in 2029 in the wake of the dismal economic outlook.
“Rachel Reeves is doing a fantastic job,” he said, but would not say if she would remain in post.
“She has my full confidence, she has the full confidence of the entire party.
“She took the tough decisions.”
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The Conservatives jumped on Sir Keir failing to confirm if Ms Reeves would still be in the job at the end of this parliament.
Leader Kemi Badenoch said: “The prime minister just refused to back his chancellor staying in her job.
“Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have driven Britain’s economy into the ground. The markets are in turmoil and business confidence has crashed, yet the chancellor is nowhere to be seen.
“Labour promised stability and instead the City minister is mired in corruption investigations and the chancellor is hanging on by her fingernails.”
Scotland’s former first minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced she has split from her husband, Peter Murrell.
Ms Sturgeon and Ms Murrell met via the SNP and first became a couple in 2003. They later married in July 2010 at Oran Mor in Glasgow.
In a statement posted to Instagram stories, she wrote: “With a heavy heart I am confirming that Peter and I have decided to end our marriage.
“To all intents and purposes we have been separated for some time now and feel it is time to bring others up to speed with where we are.
“It goes without saying that we still care deeply for each other, and always will.
“We will be making no further comment.”
Ms Sturgeon unexpectedly announced she was stepping down as Scotland’s first minister and SNP leader in February 2023 after succeeding Alex Salmond following the independence referendum in 2014.
Mr Murrell, who had been SNP chief executive since 2001, resigned from his post the following month after taking responsibility for misleading the media over party membership numbers amid the leadership race, which Humza Yousaf went on to win.
At the time, he said: “While there was no intent to mislead, I accept that this has been the outcome.”
In April 2023, Mr Murrell was arrested as part of a probe into the SNP’s funding and finances. He was later charged with embezzling SNP funds in April last year.
Ms Sturgeon and ex-party treasurer MSP Colin Beattie have also been arrested and released without charge as part of Police Scotland’s long-running Operation Branchform.
The probe, which has been ongoing since July 2021, is linked to the spending of around £600,000 raised by SNP supporters to be earmarked for Scottish independence campaigning.
Ms Sturgeon continues to deny any wrongdoing. In an interview last month, the Glasgow Southside MSP said she knew “nothing more” about the inquiry and was getting on with life “as best I can at the moment”.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.