A crisis of trust in our politics spells trouble for the government

Published

9 months ago

April 25, 2024

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The morning after the 2019 general election, Boris Johnson pledged to people in the North East who had voted Conservative for the first time that he and the party would “repay your trust”.

That year was the Brexit election, and the Conservatives ultimately won because they and Mr Johnson were trusted to “get Brexit done” – Jeremy Corbyn was not.

Five years on, exclusive polling by YouGov for Sky News finds that since then, the number of people saying they “almost never” trust the British government to place the needs of the nation above the interests of their own party has nearly doubled – from 26% to 49%.

This spiralling level of distrust has been greatest for the bedrock of the Conservative’s electoral coalition – those who voted to leave the EU in 2016.

The percentage of Leavers saying they “almost never” trust government has leapt by 33 points (from 23% to 56%) since the last election – twice as much as the increase for Remainers.

It is the sort of people who live in places like Grimsby and Cleethorpes, which voted heavily to Leave the EU – by nearly 70% – who have lost most trust in British politics since 2019.

A disconnected politics

Our polling reveals a deep loss of public faith in British politics since the last election.

This is all the more remarkable given the “rally” in public trust enjoyed by the government at the height of the pandemic.

Nearly three-quarters of voters believe politicians don’t care what people like them think – this has risen from 51% to 73% over the past five years.

There has been a similar rise in the number of people who feel politicians in Westminster ignore the issues they care about – up from 50% to 67%.

A geography of discontent

Despite Mr Johnson’s pledge to repay the trust of new Conservative voters in the North, and promises of “levelling up”, there is a widespread view outside London that politicians in Westminster don’t care very much or at all about their part of the country.

The percentage of people saying politicians don’t care “at all” about their region is highest in Wales at 47% and the north of England at 39%.

This feeling is higher among Leave voters – 42% – than Remain voters -24%.

Five years of Conservative government has not delivered the legacy of trust hoped for by Mr Johnson.

‘They are all the same’

Perhaps most telling of all, the public currently see the parties as more like each other than at any election since 1964 – when polling records began.

Voters are more likely than ever before at 40% to say there is not much difference between Labour and the Conservatives, and less likely than ever to say there is “a great deal of difference” between them at just 12%.

This contrasts with 2019 when 47% of people said there was a great deal of difference between the parties.

Trust is about delivering on promises

Our research has found that across the world, one of the most important things needed for voters to consider politicians to be trustworthy is that they stick to their word and do what they say – so we asked whether the parties try to keep their promises.

Some 71% of people think the Conservative Party do not try to keep their promises, notably including 61% of 2019 Conservative voters.

Views on Labour are more mixed, with 47% of people saying they don’t try to keep their promises and 27% saying they do.

For the government, this deep public antipathy spells trouble for the next election.

In many parts of the country, voters feel politicians don’t care what they think or care about their area, ignore the issues that matter to them, and don’t offer a meaningful choice at the ballot box.

If Labour does benefit from a prevailing mood of public distrust at that election, its honeymoon may not last long as it will soon face the same winds of discontent.

Politics

Crypto deregulation under Trump: Promises vs reality

Published

2 hours ago

January 13, 2025

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Crypto deregulation under Trump: Promises vs reality

The incoming US president will have the authority to enact many policies favorable to crypto users after taking office next week.

Politics

Starmer says Treasury will be ‘ruthless’ in cutting spending amid market turmoil

Published

2 hours ago

January 13, 2025

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Starmer says Treasury will be 'ruthless' in cutting spending amid market turmoil

Sir Keir Starmer has said the Treasury will be “ruthless” in cutting government spending as market turbulence continues.

Responding to a question about the economic situation from Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby, he said: “The number one mission of this government is economic growth.

“And that was run through the budget, but there’s much more that we’re doing on economic growth, pulling those levers of change.”

Both long-term 30-year and the benchmark 10-year government borrowing costs were up on Monday morning, with the 30-year effective interest rate (the gilt yield) reaching a new high of 5.47% – a rate not seen since mid-1998.

The 10-year borrowing cost reached 4.86%, below the 2008 high recorded last Thursday but at the same levels last seen around the global financial crash.

Politics latest: Chancellor urged to hold emergency bank summit

That pushes up costs for the government, with the chancellor put in a position where she could have to break her self-imposed fiscal rules by failing to bring debt down and balance the budget.

Sterling, which can reflect investors’ confidence in the UK and overall economic health, was also down to a low not seen since October 2023, with £1 buying $1.21.

Money blog: Traders bet on pound dropping 8%

The dismal economic outlook has prompted warnings mortgage rates could rise in the coming weeks as lenders respond to the turmoil.

In what could be seen as further misery for the British people, the prime minister refused to rule out government spending cuts as he said the Treasury was right to be “ruthless” in cutting spending.

A spending review, due later this year, is expected to require government departments to make efficiency savings worth 5% of their budgets.

Sir Keir told a news conference: “We will be ruthless, as we have been ruthless in the decisions that we’ve taken so far.

“We’ve got clear fiscal rules, and we’re going to keep to those fiscal rules.”

He said the government had “inherited a real mess” of an economy from the Conservative government.

But, he said the government is “going to stick to the fiscal rules”.

“That is a very important thing,” he said.

“We’re determined to bring about that economic stability. And that’s why the fiscal rules are absolutely, absolutely central to what we do.”

Sir Keir also twice avoided answering whether Rachel Reeves will still be chancellor by the next election in 2029 in the wake of the dismal economic outlook.

“Rachel Reeves is doing a fantastic job,” he said, but would not say if she would remain in post.

“She has my full confidence, she has the full confidence of the entire party.

“She took the tough decisions.”

The Conservatives jumped on Sir Keir failing to confirm if Ms Reeves would still be in the job at the end of this parliament.

Leader Kemi Badenoch said: “The prime minister just refused to back his chancellor staying in her job.

“Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have driven Britain’s economy into the ground. The markets are in turmoil and business confidence has crashed, yet the chancellor is nowhere to be seen.

“Labour promised stability and instead the City minister is mired in corruption investigations and the chancellor is hanging on by her fingernails.”

Politics

Scotland’s former first minister Nicola Sturgeon splits from husband

Published

9 hours ago

January 13, 2025

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Scotland's former first minister Nicola Sturgeon splits from husband

Scotland’s former first minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced she has split from her husband, Peter Murrell.

Ms Sturgeon and Ms Murrell met via the SNP and first became a couple in 2003. They later married in July 2010 at Oran Mor in Glasgow.

In a statement posted to Instagram stories, she wrote: “With a heavy heart I am confirming that Peter and I have decided to end our marriage.

“To all intents and purposes we have been separated for some time now and feel it is time to bring others up to speed with where we are.

“It goes without saying that we still care deeply for each other, and always will.

“We will be making no further comment.”

Ms Sturgeon unexpectedly announced she was stepping down as Scotland’s first minister and SNP leader in February 2023 after succeeding Alex Salmond following the independence referendum in 2014.

Mr Murrell, who had been SNP chief executive since 2001, resigned from his post the following month after taking responsibility for misleading the media over party membership numbers amid the leadership race, which Humza Yousaf went on to win.

At the time, he said: “While there was no intent to mislead, I accept that this has been the outcome.”

In April 2023, Mr Murrell was arrested as part of a probe into the SNP’s funding and finances. He was later charged with embezzling SNP funds in April last year.

Ms Sturgeon and ex-party treasurer MSP Colin Beattie have also been arrested and released without charge as part of Police Scotland’s long-running Operation Branchform.

The probe, which has been ongoing since July 2021, is linked to the spending of around £600,000 raised by SNP supporters to be earmarked for Scottish independence campaigning.

Ms Sturgeon continues to deny any wrongdoing. In an interview last month, the Glasgow Southside MSP said she knew “nothing more” about the inquiry and was getting on with life “as best I can at the moment”.

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