Rishi Sunak will feel ‘reset week’ was job well done – but a horrible reality check awaits
Call it the Rishi Sunak reset week or, to borrow from The Spectator’s Katy Balls, the shore-up Sunak week – the prime minister will be going into this weekend feeling the past few days have been a job well done.
He has got his flagship Rwanda bill through parliament and is promising a “regular rhythm” of flights will be getting off the ground from July.
He has also got off the ground himself, with a dash to Poland and then Germany, in a show of strength with European allies in the face of Russian aggression.
As the US finally approved a $61bn military aid package for Ukraine, our prime minister announced he’d lift the UK’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030.
That would amount to £87bn a year by the start of the 2030s, with the UK spending a cumulative extra £75bn on the military over the next six years.
That of course all hinges on winning an election, which I’ll come to soon, but it is a commitment that throws a challenge to Labour and will delight those in his party who have been calling for increased defence spending for months in the face of growing global threats from Russia, China and Iran.
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‘Fully funded’ defence plan
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In Electoral Dysfunction this week, we discuss whether Rishi Sunak, having been battered for much of his premiership, is finally having a week on top?
There is after all a longstanding tradition in this country that when the chips are down, you jump on a plane to try to go somewhere where you’re more appreciated.
And Ruth agrees this week that this has been “one of the better weeks that he’s had in his premiership” and is fully behind his defence spending pledge, while Jess points out that Labour is committed to the “exact same plan for upping defence spending”.
The difference between the two parties is that Rishi Sunak set out in some detail how he plans to get to that point over the course of the next parliament, while Sir Keir Starmer has said only he wants to get to 2.5% “when resources allow”.
Keir Starmer only wants to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence ‘when resources allow’. Pic: PA
And that matters because, as it stands, it’s very likely that it will be Sir Keir who is having to decide whether to increase defence spending levels in the next parliament rather than the incumbent.
Cue an election debate on which leader really cares more about defence and, if Sir Keir really does want go toe-to-toe with Mr Sunak on the 2.5%, how does he pay for it?
That will be a discussion for many other days (Labour’s line on this is that the party will hit the 2.5% “when circumstances allow” rather than setting a firm date) as we head into the general election.
But I had to ask Ruth and Jess, why was he on a publicity blitz announcing it now? Was it something to do with the rather large matter of the local elections?
‘Sunak needs to look big’
At this, both furiously shook their heads and looked at me with a touch of derision. “When it comes to the local elections, I want my bins done, I want my schools to be good, and I want my potholes done. That’s what I care about,” says Ruth.
“The people in Birmingham Yardley speak of nothing else but the 2.5% defence spending,” jokes Jess.
“I see why [he’s doing it this week] but actually I don’t think he’s doing for just another example of doing it this week. He needs to look big in front of his party.”
And there are a couple of things to explore in that.
First, the party management issue of a PM very likely to get completely battered in the local elections throwing his party some red meat ahead of that slaughter to perhaps try to protect himself.
Mr Sunak met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz this week
Because the local elections could be bad, very very bad. And that throws up questions about Rishi Sunak’s future and also the date of the next general election.
There is a reason why the prime minister will not be drawn on the timing of the election beyond the “second half of the year”.
While it’s true he doesn’t want to have to “indulge in a guessing game”, as one of his allies put it to me, it’s also true that he can’t rule out a summer election given the unpredictability of next week’s local elections and what could follow.
The Armageddon scenario of losing 500-plus seats, alongside the West Midlands and Teeside mayors, could propel his party into fever pitch panic and possibly trigger a vote of confidence in Rishi Sunak.
Does he then decide to call a general election instead of allowing his party to try to force him out?
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‘A man enjoying himself’
For what it’s worth, he did not appear, in any way to me, as a prime minister on that plane over to Berlin from Warsaw, who wanted to give up the job. He seemed, for the first time in a long time, a man enjoying it and getting on with the stuff he wants to get done.
There is also the small matter of being 20 points behind in the polls. I suspect his instinct is very much to hold on in the hope that things begin to turn in his favour.
Because, despite what the critics say, he does seem a man who genuinely believes his Rwanda plan, welfare reforms, defence spending and economic management are all stepping stones on his path to perhaps winning back some support in the country.
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“June [or July] is just party management,” says one former cabinet minister. “They are not ready for it and the polling doesn’t work obviously.”
Jess sees the flurry as a “his last ditch attempt” of another reset, and says “the Labour party is not worrying” as the PM tries to pin them on Rwanda or defence spending: “Whatever he goes on is absolutely pilloried within seconds,” she says.
But Ruth argues the defence spending was “actually authentic and a real thing”, and says of the expectations for the local elections that “it’s not just going to be a rout, but an apocalypse, that actually at this point in the cycle it works quite well for Sunak in terms of keeping his job at the back end”.
Observing his various grip and grins this week as I trailed after him meeting the Polish PM, the German chancellor and the NATO secretary general, he is a man that really does want to hold on to that job.
The local elections then are probably going to come as a horrible reality check in just a week’s time as this prime minister, riding high from his European tours, is reminded that his time in office looks like it will be coming to an end – and perhaps even sooner than he might have initially planned.
Oleksandr Usyk has become the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world after defeating Tyson Fury in boxing’s biggest fight of the century.
The Ukrainian won on a split decision following the match in Saudi Arabia.
Usyk had 115-112 and 114-113 on two cards, while Fury took the other 114-113.
Oleksandr Usyk lands a punch on Tyson Fury. Pic: PA
Fury disputed his loss after the match, saying: “I believe I won that fight. I believe he won a few rounds but I won more of them.
“Make no mistake I won that fight and I’ll be back.”
In response Usyk said he was “ready for a rematch”.
Pic: Action Images via Reuters
Fury came under early pressure, with Usyk taking the centre of the ring with an aggressive offensive from the start.
At one point Fury was pushed against the ropes and started laughing as Usyk applied pressure.
The “Gypsy King” looked relaxed as he moved around the ring in the early rounds and picked his shots.
Pic: PA
Fury lunges at Usyk. Pic: PA
But after Usyk landed a right hook in the ninth round it looked as if Fury was in serious trouble. The Ukrainian followed up by unloading freely but somehow the bookmakers’ favourite stayed on his feet and was saved by the bell.
Last night, Fury weighed in at 262lbs (18st 10lbs) – nearly three stone heavier than Usyk, who clocked in at a career heaviest of 223lbs (15st 13lbs).
Fury refused to look at his opponent during a news conference on Thursday, but did not back down at the weigh-in last night, where the pair almost came to blows before being separated by their entourages.
Usyk arrived into the ring first, dressed as a Cossack warrior.
Fury entered to songs by Barry White and Bonnie Tyler, with the “Gypsy King” spending several minutes dancing on stage before the song changed to Holding Out For A Hero.
Anthony Joshua watched from the ringside, knowing he could meet the winner early next year.
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UK
Brixham: Warning ‘heads are going to roll’ after water parasite outbreak – as ‘nearly every house in one close has someone ill’
Thousands of homes have had their boiling water restrictions lifted after a water tank infected with cryptosporidium was drained and cleaned, South West Water has said.
About 16,000 households in the Brixham area of Devon were told to boil their drinking water following 46 confirmed cases of the disease.
On Saturday afternoon South West Water lifted the boiling restrictions for 14,500 homes after water quality monitoring results found no traces of cryptosporidium in the Alston supply area.
Cryptosporidiosis is caused by a tiny parasite and can lead to vomiting, stomach cramps and watery diarrhoea lasting about two weeks.
More cases are expected to be confirmed due to a delay in developing symptoms – and about 100 more people around Brixham were reporting signs of it on Friday.
South West Water believes the parasite probably entered supplies through a damaged pipe in a field containing animal faeces.
A contaminated water tank at Hillhead reservoir, where cryptosporidium was detected, was drained overnight and “thoroughly cleaned” on Saturday, South West Water said.
One local resident said she knew of only four houses out of 21 in Raddicombe Close, on the outskirts of Brixham, which have not had at least one person fall ill with cryptosporidiosis.
The local MP has warned “heads are going to roll” over the incident.
Tory MP Anthony Mangnall, whose constituency includes Brixham, told LBC: “This is such a serious matter that yes, I think heads are going to roll over this.”
He claimed the supplier had been too slow to issue its safety alert.
16,000 businesses and residents are affected by the boil water notice. Pic: South West Water
Mr Mangnall said: “From starting this week with a denial from South West Water that it was anything to do with them, delaying the fact that the boil water notice came in – meaning thousands of people used the water network – to then issuing it on Wednesday, and there are a lot of people who are very ill.”
He called it an “absolutely disastrous week” and said locals were furious.
South West Water has said it’s “deeply sorry” and that it’s been “working tirelessly” to identify the source of the problem and fix it.
Bottled water stations have been set up in the area.
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Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey accused the government of not doing enough to hold water companies to account.
He told Sky News the firms were “putting profit over the environment, over public health” after multiple cases of sewage being released into rivers and seas.
“We [Liberal Democrats] wouldn’t wait for fines for pollution,” Sir Ed said.
“There should be a sewage tax on the profits of these water companies so we can get the money now.
“There needs to be much tougher regulation… and we may need to look at restructuring the whole water industry.”
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Kelly Holmes joins anti-sewage protest
It comes as dozens of protests over sewage releases were planned for Saturday.
Surfers Against Sewage is promoting “paddle-out” demonstrations at 30 locations, with Olympian Dame Kelly Holmes among those at the event in Brighton.
The confirmed cases of a waterborne disease caused by a parasite have more than doubled.
There are now 46 confirmed cases of cryptosporidiosis, a diarrhoeal illness, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has said – with more than 100 further people reporting similar symptoms in the Brixham area.
Other reported cases of diarrhoea and vomiting in residents and visitors to the south Devon town are also under investigation. Hundreds of locals have also reported feeling unwell over the last two weeks on social media.
MPs and South West Water officials have confirmed the parasite most likely entered water supplies through animal faeces, but an investigation is still ongoing.
What is cryptosporidiosis disease?
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‘Cow faeces’ infected Devon water
The UKHSA first confirmed cases of the disease at around midday on Wednesday, while locals were initially told by South West Water that their tap water was uncontaminated and safe to drink.
But after testing supplies in the Hillhead reservoir, the water company found “small traces” of the parasite cryptosporidium – which causes cryptosporidiosis – and told residents in parts of Brixham and Alston to boil their drinking water on Wednesday.
A total of 16,000 households and businesses in Brixham, Boohay, Kingswear, Roseland and North West Paignton were impacted and offered £15 compensation at first.
Over the next two days, South West Water apologised to those affected and increased the offer to £115. Amid the chaos, one primary school closed its doors on Thursday due to not having safe running drinking water.
16,000 businesses and residents are affected by the boil water notice. Pic: South West Water
‘Very hard questions for water company’
Speaking to Sky News yesterday, South West Water’s chief customer officer Laura Flowerdew confirmed it was likely a broken air valve contaminated by animal faeces that had caused the outbreak.
However, she refused to give a timeframe on how long the incident would be ongoing – leaving thousands of residents facing an uncertain future.
Speaking on Friday at the University of Exeter, Health Secretary Victoria Atkins said there will be “very, very hard questions” for South West Water over the outbreak.
“At the moment I think we probably need to give them the space to conduct their investigation; we know that they have identified the source,” she said.
“The public will want to know how on earth that source happened, what was the chain of events that led to this, because of course we all understand the expectation that we all have when we turn our taps on is that [we get] clean drinking water and we want to be able to trust it.”
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Most cases of cryptosporidiosis pass in two weeks. Symptoms include diarrhoea and vomiting. File pic: Dr_Microbe/iStock
‘Expect to see more cases’
Totnes MP Anthony Mangnall also warned the boil notice could last “at least a further six or seven days” and called for more transparency.
Professor Paul Hunter, a specialist in medical microbiology at the University of East Anglia, told Sky News if the parasite was “a continuous thing” present in water supplies for a prolonged period, then “you’d expect to see more cases” for another two weeks.
It comes as hotel owners in the area told Sky News the outbreak has led to people cancelling their stay, while a head chef said “I can’t wash salad in the sink”.
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‘Destroyed our business’
Stephen Colemansfield, owner of Redlands Guest House in Brixham, told Sky News the outbreak has “destroyed our business at the moment”.
“Our guests have cancelled because of the mixed messages that are being sent out by South West Water.”
Rob, head chef at the Steam Packet Inn in Kingswear near Dartmouth, also said his brother-in-law is one of the 46 confirmed cases of cryptosporidiosis and has been sick for two weeks.
The UKHSA is working with Torbay Council, South West Water, NHS Devon and the Environment Agency on the incident.
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