Connect with us

Published

on

Call it the Rishi Sunak reset week or, to borrow from The Spectator’s Katy Balls, the shore-up Sunak week – the prime minister will be going into this weekend feeling the past few days have been a job well done. 

He has got his flagship Rwanda bill through parliament and is promising a “regular rhythm” of flights will be getting off the ground from July.

He has also got off the ground himself, with a dash to Poland and then Germany, in a show of strength with European allies in the face of Russian aggression.

As the US finally approved a $61bn military aid package for Ukraine, our prime minister announced he’d lift the UK’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030.

That would amount to £87bn a year by the start of the 2030s, with the UK spending a cumulative extra £75bn on the military over the next six years.

That of course all hinges on winning an election, which I’ll come to soon, but it is a commitment that throws a challenge to Labour and will delight those in his party who have been calling for increased defence spending for months in the face of growing global threats from Russia, China and Iran.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘Fully funded’ defence plan

? Listen above then tap here to follow Electoral Dysfunction wherever you get your podcasts ?

In Electoral Dysfunction this week, we discuss whether Rishi Sunak, having been battered for much of his premiership, is finally having a week on top?

There is after all a longstanding tradition in this country that when the chips are down, you jump on a plane to try to go somewhere where you’re more appreciated.

And Ruth agrees this week that this has been “one of the better weeks that he’s had in his premiership” and is fully behind his defence spending pledge, while Jess points out that Labour is committed to the “exact same plan for upping defence spending”.

The difference between the two parties is that Rishi Sunak set out in some detail how he plans to get to that point over the course of the next parliament, while Sir Keir Starmer has said only he wants to get to 2.5% “when resources allow”.

Pic: Ben Birchall/PA
An Ajax Ares tank, an armoured personnel carrier, on the training range at Bovington Camp, a British Army military base in Dorset, during a visit by Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who is viewing Ukrainian soldiers training on Challenger 2 tanks. Picture date: Wednesday February 22, 2023.
Image:
Keir Starmer only wants to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence ‘when resources allow’. Pic: PA

And that matters because, as it stands, it’s very likely that it will be Sir Keir who is having to decide whether to increase defence spending levels in the next parliament rather than the incumbent.

Cue an election debate on which leader really cares more about defence and, if Sir Keir really does want go toe-to-toe with Mr Sunak on the 2.5%, how does he pay for it?

That will be a discussion for many other days (Labour’s line on this is that the party will hit the 2.5% “when circumstances allow” rather than setting a firm date) as we head into the general election.

But I had to ask Ruth and Jess, why was he on a publicity blitz announcing it now? Was it something to do with the rather large matter of the local elections?

‘Sunak needs to look big’

At this, both furiously shook their heads and looked at me with a touch of derision. “When it comes to the local elections, I want my bins done, I want my schools to be good, and I want my potholes done. That’s what I care about,” says Ruth.

“The people in Birmingham Yardley speak of nothing else but the 2.5% defence spending,” jokes Jess.

“I see why [he’s doing it this week] but actually I don’t think he’s doing for just another example of doing it this week. He needs to look big in front of his party.”

And there are a couple of things to explore in that.

First, the party management issue of a PM very likely to get completely battered in the local elections throwing his party some red meat ahead of that slaughter to perhaps try to protect himself.

PIc: Reuters
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak attend a press conference, at the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany, April 24, 2024. REUTERS/Annegret Hilse
Image:
Mr Sunak met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz this week

Because the local elections could be bad, very very bad. And that throws up questions about Rishi Sunak’s future and also the date of the next general election.

There is a reason why the prime minister will not be drawn on the timing of the election beyond the “second half of the year”.

While it’s true he doesn’t want to have to “indulge in a guessing game”, as one of his allies put it to me, it’s also true that he can’t rule out a summer election given the unpredictability of next week’s local elections and what could follow.

The Armageddon scenario of losing 500-plus seats, alongside the West Midlands and Teeside mayors, could propel his party into fever pitch panic and possibly trigger a vote of confidence in Rishi Sunak.

Does he then decide to call a general election instead of allowing his party to try to force him out?

Read more from Sky News:
A crisis of trust in our politics spells trouble for the government

Future of Scottish FM Humza Yousaf hangs in balance

Electoral Dysfunction
Electoral Dysfunction

Listen to Beth Rigby, Jess Phillips and Ruth Davidson as they unravel the spin in a new weekly podcast from Sky News

Tap here to follow

‘A man enjoying himself’

For what it’s worth, he did not appear, in any way to me, as a prime minister on that plane over to Berlin from Warsaw, who wanted to give up the job. He seemed, for the first time in a long time, a man enjoying it and getting on with the stuff he wants to get done.

There is also the small matter of being 20 points behind in the polls. I suspect his instinct is very much to hold on in the hope that things begin to turn in his favour.

Because, despite what the critics say, he does seem a man who genuinely believes his Rwanda plan, welfare reforms, defence spending and economic management are all stepping stones on his path to perhaps winning back some support in the country.

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

“June [or July] is just party management,” says one former cabinet minister. “They are not ready for it and the polling doesn’t work obviously.”

Jess sees the flurry as a “his last ditch attempt” of another reset, and says “the Labour party is not worrying” as the PM tries to pin them on Rwanda or defence spending: “Whatever he goes on is absolutely pilloried within seconds,” she says.

But Ruth argues the defence spending was “actually authentic and a real thing”, and says of the expectations for the local elections that “it’s not just going to be a rout, but an apocalypse, that actually at this point in the cycle it works quite well for Sunak in terms of keeping his job at the back end”.

Observing his various grip and grins this week as I trailed after him meeting the Polish PM, the German chancellor and the NATO secretary general, he is a man that really does want to hold on to that job.

The local elections then are probably going to come as a horrible reality check in just a week’s time as this prime minister, riding high from his European tours, is reminded that his time in office looks like it will be coming to an end – and perhaps even sooner than he might have initially planned.

Continue Reading

Politics

Starmer and Macron agree need for ‘new deterrent’ to stop small boat crossings

Published

on

By

Starmer and Macron agree need for 'new deterrent' to stop small boat crossings

Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have agreed the need for a “new deterrent” to deter small boats crossings in the Channel, Downing Street has said.

The prime minister met Mr Macron this afternoon as part of the French president’s state visit to the UK, which began on Tuesday.

High up the agenda for the two leaders is the need to tackle small boat crossings in the Channel, which Mr Macron said yesterday was a “burden” for both the UK and France.

Politics latest: Plans for Donald Trump UK visit in ‘coming weeks’

The small boats crisis is a pressing issue for the prime minister, given that more than 20,000 migrants crossed the English Channel to the UK in the first six months of this year – a rise of almost 50% on the number crossing in 2024.

Sir Keir is hoping he can reach a deal for a one-in one-out return treaty with France, ahead of the UK-France summit on Thursday, which will involve ministerial teams from both nations.

The deal would see those crossing the Channel illegally sent back to France in exchange for Britain taking in any asylum seeker with a family connection in the UK.

More on Emmanuel Macron

However, it is understood the deal is still in the balance, with some EU countries unhappy about France and the UK agreeing on a bilateral deal.

French newspaper Le Monde reports that up to 50 small boat migrants could be sent back to France each week, starting from August, as part of an agreement between Sir Keir and Mr Macron.

A statement from Downing Street said: “The prime minister met the French President Emmanuel Macron in Downing Street this afternoon.

“They reflected on the state visit of the president so far, agreeing that it had been an important representation of the deep ties between our two countries.

“Moving on to discuss joint working, they shared their desire to deepen our partnership further – from joint leadership in support of Ukraine to strengthening our defence collaboration and increasing bilateral trade and investment.”

It added: “The leaders agreed tackling the threat of irregular migration and small boat crossings is a shared priority that requires shared solutions.

“The prime minister spoke of his government’s toughening of the system in the past year to ensure rules are respected and enforced, including a massive surge in illegal working arrests to end the false promise of jobs that are used to sell spaces on boats.

Read more:
Can PM turn diplomatic work with Macron into action on migration?
UN criticises Starmer’s welfare reforms

“The two leaders agreed on the need to go further and make progress on new and innovative solutions, including a new deterrent to break the business model of these gangs.”

Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, seized on the statement to criticise Labour for scrapping the Conservatives’ Rwanda plan, which the Tories claim would have sent asylum seekers “entering the UK illegally” to Rwanda.

He said in an online post: “We had a deterrent ready to go, where every single illegal immigrant arriving over the Channel would be sent to Rwanda.

“But Starmer cancelled this before it had a chance to start.

“Now, a year later, he’s realised he made a massive mistake. That’s why numbers have surged and this year so far has been the worst in history for illegal channel crossings.

“Starmer is weak and incompetent and he’s lost control of our borders.”

Continue Reading

Politics

Ex-Tory chairman Sir Jake Berry defects to Reform

Published

on

By

Ex-Tory chairman Sir Jake Berry defects to Reform

Ex-Tory chairman Sir Jake Berry has defected to Reform, in the latest blow to the Conservatives.

The former MP for Rossendale and Darwen, who served as Northern Powerhouse minister under Boris Johnson and lost his seat last year, said he had defected to Nigel Farage’s party because the Tories had “lost their way”.

Politics latest: Labour rebel defends calls for ‘wealth tax’

Reform UK confirmed the defection to Sky News, which was first broken by The Sun.

Speaking to the paper, Sir Jake said Mr Farage’s party was the “last chance to pull Britain back from terminal decline”.

“Our streets are completely lawless,” he said.

“Migration is out of control. Taxes are going through the roof.

More on Reform Uk

“And day after day, I hear from people in my community and beyond who say the same thing: ‘This isn’t the Britain I grew up in’.”

Sir Jake accused his former party of “abandoning the British people” but said he was not “giving up”.

“I’m staying. And I’m fighting.

“Fighting for the Britain I want my kids, and one day, my grandkids, to grow up in.”

Mr Farage welcomed what he said was “a very brave decision” by Sir Jake.

“His admission that the Conservative government he was part of broke the country is unprecedented and principled,” he added.

A Conservative Party spokesman said: “Reform support increasing the benefits bill by removing the two-child cap, and nationalising British industry. By contrast the Conservatives, under new leadership, will keep making the case for sound money, lower taxes and bringing the welfare bill under control.

“We wish Jake well in his new high spend, high tax party.”

Sir Jake’s defection to Reform comes just days after former Conservative cabinet minister David Jones joined Reform UK, which continues to lead in the polls.

European Research Group (ERG) chair Mark Francois (left), and deputy chair David Jones, speak to the media outside Portcullis House, Westminster
Image:
Former Welsh secretary David Jones (R) alongside Tory MP Mark Francois. Pic: PA

Mr Jones, who was MP for Clwyd West from 2005 until standing down in 2024, said he had quit the Tories after “more than 50 years of continuous membership”.

Sir Jake was the MP Rossendale and Darwen in Lancashire between 2010 and 2024, when he was defeated by Labour’s Andy MacNae.

He held several ministerial posts including in the Department for Housing, Communities and Local Government, Energy and Climate Change and the Cabinet Office.

Nigel Farage holds up six fingers to indicate the six votes his party's candidate won by in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Nigel Farage after winning the Runcorn and Helsby by-election.
Pic: Reuters

He was also chairman of the Conservative Party from September to October 2022, under Liz Truss.

Announcing his defection – which comes a year after the Tories suffered their worst ever election defeat – Sir Jake said “Britain was broken” and “the Conservative governments I was part of share the blame”.

“We now have a tax system that punishes hard work and ambition,” he said.

“Just this week, we saw record numbers of our brightest and best people leaving Britain because they can’t see a future here. At the same time, our benefits system is pulling in the world’s poor with no plan for integration and no control over who comes in.

“If you were deliberately trying to wreck the country, you’d be hard-pressed to do a better job than the last two decades of Labour and Tory rule.

“Millions of people, just like me, want a country they can be proud of again. The only way we get that is with Reform in government. That’s why I’ve resigned from the Conservative Party. I’m now backing Reform UK and working to make them the next party of government.”

Read more:
Starmer and Macron agree need for new small boats ‘deterrent’
Controversial welfare bill passes final Commons stage

He added: “And with Nigel Farage leading Reform, we’ve got someone the country can actually trust. He doesn’t change his views to fit the mood of the day. And people respect that. So do I. That’s why I believe he should be our next prime minister.”

A Labour Party spokesperson said: “Not content with taking advice from Liz Truss, Nigel Farage has now tempted her Tory Party chairman into his ranks.

“It’s clear Farage wants Liz Truss’s reckless economics, which crashed our economy and sent mortgages spiralling, to be Reform’s blueprint for Britain. It’s a recipe for disaster and working people would be left paying the price.”

Continue Reading

Politics

Controversial welfare bill passes final Commons stage – but only after another concession

Published

on

By

Controversial welfare bill passes final Commons stage - but only after another concession

Sir Keir Starmer’s watered down welfare bill has passed its final stage in the Commons, after another concession was made to MPs.

The Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payments Bill passed by 336 votes to 242 on Wednesday night – a majority of 94.

Politics latest: Starmer and Macron agree on need for new small boat ‘deterrent’

In a bid to thwart further opposition to the bill following last week’s climbdown, the government said it would not try to introduce any more reforms to personal independence payments (PIP) until a review by work and pensions minister Sir Stephen Timms on the assessment process has concluded.

Sir Stephen said he wanted to finish his review by next autumn, but that the government would not agree to complete the review in 12 months as some MPs wanted.

Marie Tidball, the Labour MP who had called for the 12-month limit, later signalled she was happy with the government’s compromise.

Ministers also agreed to her calls to have a majority of the taskforce looking at PIP to be disabled or from disability organisations, and for the outcome of the review to come before any PIP changes. It will also be voted on by MPs.

More on Benefits

A total of 47 Labour MPs have rebelled against the government to vote against its welfare reforms.

Mother of the House Diane Abbott, former minister Dawn Butler, Andy McDonald, Stella Creasy and Jonathan Brash were among those in the “no” lobby.

Meanwhile, MPs rejected a separate amendment by Green MP Sian Berry, which called for the basic rate of universal credit to increase by 4.8% above inflation each year until 2030.

A total of 39 Labour MPs voted for scrapping the clauses that halved Universal Credit for new claimants – the only major cut left in the bill after the government made its concessions.

The passing of the bill will come as a relief to Sir Keir Starmer, who last week was forced into a humiliating climbdown over his flagship welfare package in the face of significant opposition from his own MPs.

Read more:
What is a wealth tax?
UN criticises Starmer’s welfare reforms

Prior to the vote last Tuesday, the government offered significant concessions including exempting existing personal independence payment claimants (PIP) from stricter new criteria and only freezing and cutting the universal credit health top-up for new applications.

As the vote last week unfolded, it offered further confessions amid concerns the bill could be voted down – notably, that changes in eligibility for PIP would not take place until a review he is carrying out into the benefit is published in autumn 2026.

They ended up voting for only one part of the plan: a cut to Universal Credit (UC) sickness benefits for new claimants from £97 a week to £50 from 2026/7.

A total of 49 Labour MPs voted against the bill – the largest rebellion in a prime minister’s first year in office since 47 MPs voted against Tony Blair’s Lone Parent benefit in 1997, according to Professor Phil Cowley from Queen Mary University.

Continue Reading

Trending