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Call it the Rishi Sunak reset week or, to borrow from The Spectator’s Katy Balls, the shore-up Sunak week – the prime minister will be going into this weekend feeling the past few days have been a job well done. 

He has got his flagship Rwanda bill through parliament and is promising a “regular rhythm” of flights will be getting off the ground from July.

He has also got off the ground himself, with a dash to Poland and then Germany, in a show of strength with European allies in the face of Russian aggression.

As the US finally approved a $61bn military aid package for Ukraine, our prime minister announced he’d lift the UK’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030.

That would amount to £87bn a year by the start of the 2030s, with the UK spending a cumulative extra £75bn on the military over the next six years.

That of course all hinges on winning an election, which I’ll come to soon, but it is a commitment that throws a challenge to Labour and will delight those in his party who have been calling for increased defence spending for months in the face of growing global threats from Russia, China and Iran.

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‘Fully funded’ defence plan

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In Electoral Dysfunction this week, we discuss whether Rishi Sunak, having been battered for much of his premiership, is finally having a week on top?

There is after all a longstanding tradition in this country that when the chips are down, you jump on a plane to try to go somewhere where you’re more appreciated.

And Ruth agrees this week that this has been “one of the better weeks that he’s had in his premiership” and is fully behind his defence spending pledge, while Jess points out that Labour is committed to the “exact same plan for upping defence spending”.

The difference between the two parties is that Rishi Sunak set out in some detail how he plans to get to that point over the course of the next parliament, while Sir Keir Starmer has said only he wants to get to 2.5% “when resources allow”.

Pic: Ben Birchall/PA
An Ajax Ares tank, an armoured personnel carrier, on the training range at Bovington Camp, a British Army military base in Dorset, during a visit by Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who is viewing Ukrainian soldiers training on Challenger 2 tanks. Picture date: Wednesday February 22, 2023.
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Keir Starmer only wants to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence ‘when resources allow’. Pic: PA

And that matters because, as it stands, it’s very likely that it will be Sir Keir who is having to decide whether to increase defence spending levels in the next parliament rather than the incumbent.

Cue an election debate on which leader really cares more about defence and, if Sir Keir really does want go toe-to-toe with Mr Sunak on the 2.5%, how does he pay for it?

That will be a discussion for many other days (Labour’s line on this is that the party will hit the 2.5% “when circumstances allow” rather than setting a firm date) as we head into the general election.

But I had to ask Ruth and Jess, why was he on a publicity blitz announcing it now? Was it something to do with the rather large matter of the local elections?

‘Sunak needs to look big’

At this, both furiously shook their heads and looked at me with a touch of derision. “When it comes to the local elections, I want my bins done, I want my schools to be good, and I want my potholes done. That’s what I care about,” says Ruth.

“The people in Birmingham Yardley speak of nothing else but the 2.5% defence spending,” jokes Jess.

“I see why [he’s doing it this week] but actually I don’t think he’s doing for just another example of doing it this week. He needs to look big in front of his party.”

And there are a couple of things to explore in that.

First, the party management issue of a PM very likely to get completely battered in the local elections throwing his party some red meat ahead of that slaughter to perhaps try to protect himself.

PIc: Reuters
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak attend a press conference, at the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany, April 24, 2024. REUTERS/Annegret Hilse
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Mr Sunak met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz this week

Because the local elections could be bad, very very bad. And that throws up questions about Rishi Sunak’s future and also the date of the next general election.

There is a reason why the prime minister will not be drawn on the timing of the election beyond the “second half of the year”.

While it’s true he doesn’t want to have to “indulge in a guessing game”, as one of his allies put it to me, it’s also true that he can’t rule out a summer election given the unpredictability of next week’s local elections and what could follow.

The Armageddon scenario of losing 500-plus seats, alongside the West Midlands and Teeside mayors, could propel his party into fever pitch panic and possibly trigger a vote of confidence in Rishi Sunak.

Does he then decide to call a general election instead of allowing his party to try to force him out?

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‘A man enjoying himself’

For what it’s worth, he did not appear, in any way to me, as a prime minister on that plane over to Berlin from Warsaw, who wanted to give up the job. He seemed, for the first time in a long time, a man enjoying it and getting on with the stuff he wants to get done.

There is also the small matter of being 20 points behind in the polls. I suspect his instinct is very much to hold on in the hope that things begin to turn in his favour.

Because, despite what the critics say, he does seem a man who genuinely believes his Rwanda plan, welfare reforms, defence spending and economic management are all stepping stones on his path to perhaps winning back some support in the country.

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“June [or July] is just party management,” says one former cabinet minister. “They are not ready for it and the polling doesn’t work obviously.”

Jess sees the flurry as a “his last ditch attempt” of another reset, and says “the Labour party is not worrying” as the PM tries to pin them on Rwanda or defence spending: “Whatever he goes on is absolutely pilloried within seconds,” she says.

But Ruth argues the defence spending was “actually authentic and a real thing”, and says of the expectations for the local elections that “it’s not just going to be a rout, but an apocalypse, that actually at this point in the cycle it works quite well for Sunak in terms of keeping his job at the back end”.

Observing his various grip and grins this week as I trailed after him meeting the Polish PM, the German chancellor and the NATO secretary general, he is a man that really does want to hold on to that job.

The local elections then are probably going to come as a horrible reality check in just a week’s time as this prime minister, riding high from his European tours, is reminded that his time in office looks like it will be coming to an end – and perhaps even sooner than he might have initially planned.

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PM criticised over ‘appalling’ decision to suspend four Labour MPs

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Starmer suspends four Labour MPs for breaches of party discipline

Sir Keir Starmer has suspended four MPs for repeated breaches of party discipline.

Brian Leishman, Chris Hinchliff, Neil Duncan-Jordan and Rachael Maskell have lost the whip, meaning they are no longer part of Labour’s parliamentary party and will sit as independent MPs.

The suspension is indefinite pending a review.

Three other MPs have had their trade envoy roles removed: Rosena Allin Khan, Bell Ribeiro-Addy and Mohammed Yasin.

Politics latest: Suspended MPs defend their voting record

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Starmer cracks the whip – will it work?

All seven had voted against the government’s welfare reforms earlier this month. However, it is understood this is not the only reason behind the decision, with sources citing “repeated breaches of party discipline”.

More than 100 MPs had initially rebelled against the plan to cut personal independent payments (PIP). Ultimately, 47 voted against the bill’s third reading, after it was watered down significantly in the face of defeat.

Ms Maskell was one of the lead rebels in the welfare revolt, and has more recently called for a wealth tax to fund the U-turn.

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‘There are lines I will not cross’

The York Central MP has spoken out against the government on a number of other occasions since the election, including on winter fuel and cuts to overseas aid.

Confirming the suspension, Ms Maskell told Sky News that she “doesn’t see herself as a rebel” but “somebody that is prepared to fulfil (her) role here of holding the executive to account and speaking truth to power”.

She stopped short of criticising the decision, saying: “I hold my hand out to the prime minister and hope he takes that and wants to reach back because I think it’s really important that we work together.”

Ms Maskell was first elected in 2015, while the other suspended MPs were newly elected last year.

Mr Hinchliff, the MP for North East Hertfordshire, has proposed a series of amendments to the flagship planning and infrastructure bill criticising the government’s approach.

Mr Duncan-Jordan, the MP for Poole, led a rebellion against the cut to the winter fuel payments while Alloa and Grangemouth MP Mr Leishman has been critical of the government’s position on Gaza.

Suspended Labour MPs clearly hit a nerve with Starmer


Tamara Cohen

Tamara Cohen

Political correspondent

@tamcohen

After a tricky few weeks for the government, in which backbenchers overturned plans to cut back welfare spending, now a heavy hand to get the party into line.

All four suspended MPs appear to be surprised – and upset.

Three more have lost plum roles as trade envoys – all on the left of the party.

All were active in the rebellion against the government’s welfare reforms, and voted against the changes even after a series of U-turns – but were among 47 Labour MPs who did so.

When MPs were told after the welfare vote that Number 10 was “fully committed to engaging with parliamentarians”, this was not what they were expecting.

We’re told the reasons for these particular suspensions go wider – over “persistent breaches of party discipline” – although most are not high profile.

In the scheme of things, Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell rebelled against the Labour whip hundreds of times under New Labour, without being suspended.

But these MPs’ pointed criticism of the Starmer strategy has clearly hit a nerve.

Read Tamara’s analysis in full here

‘Couldn’t support making people poorer’

Mr Duncan-Jordan told Sky News that he understood speaking out against benefit cuts would “come at a cost” but said he “couldn’t support making disabled people poorer”.

Mr Leishman echoed that sentiment, saying: “I firmly believe that it is not my duty as an MP to make people poorer, especially those that have suffered because of austerity and its dire consequences.”

Both said they remain committed to the Labour Party and its values, suggesting they have no plans to join the new party being set up by former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and ousted MP Zarah Sultana.

Similarly Mr Hinchliff said in a brief statement: “I remain proud to have been elected as a Labour MP and I hope in time to return to the Labour benches.”

The suspensions will be seen as an attempt to restore discipline ahead of the summer recess following a number of rebellions that has forced the government into U-turns.

As well as watering down the welfare bill, some cuts to the winter fuel payment have been reversed, leaving Chancellor Rachel Reeves with a fiscal blackhole to fill.

However, the move risks creating further divisions with a number of Labour MPs criticising the decision.

Read more:
Who are the suspended Labour MPs?

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. File pic: PA
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File pic: PA

Starmer ‘rolling out the carpet to Reform’

Ian Byrne, Labour MP for Liverpool West Derby, said he was “appalled” by the suspensions as he and 44 others voted against welfare cuts.

He said this isn’t the first time the Starmer leadership has “punished MPs for standing up for what’s right”, as he and six others were suspended last year for voting against the two-child benefit cap.

“These decisions don’t show strength. They are damaging Labour’s support and risk rolling out the red carpet for Reform,” he added.

Richard Burgon, who was also temporarily suspended in the two-child benefit cap revolt, said he had hoped the leadership would take a different approach to backbenchers.

“Sadly, it isn’t yet doing so. To help stop a Reform government, it really must do so,” he said.

Jon Trickett, Labour MP for Normanton and Hemsworth, said “it’s not a sin to stand up for the poor and disabled”, adding: “Solidarity with the suspended four.”

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Roman Storm prosecutors seek to block testimony on crypto kidnappings

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Roman Storm prosecutors seek to block testimony on crypto kidnappings

Roman Storm prosecutors seek to block testimony on crypto kidnappings

US Attorneys continued hearing from witnesses in their case against the Tornado Cash co-founder and filed a motion to block testimony on crypto-related kidnappings and torture.

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‘Bitcoin Jesus’ Roger Ver sues Spain to block extradition to the United States

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<div>'Bitcoin Jesus' Roger Ver sues Spain to block extradition to the United States</div>

<div>'Bitcoin Jesus' Roger Ver sues Spain to block extradition to the United States</div>

Roger Ver, also known as “Bitcoin Jesus,” has repeatedly called the US DOJ tax evasion case against him “politically motivated.”

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