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The US economy grew at its slowest pace in two years in the first quarter, while prices rose at a faster rate — sending the markets into a tailspin Thursday and clouding President Joe Biden’s sunny outlook for American households heading into his reelection battle.

The data released by the Commerce Department showed that gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized pace of 1.6% during the three-month period ended in March — below the 2.4% projected by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

The growth rate was the lowest since 2022 and came in much lower than fourth-quarter GDP, which was revised up to 3.4%, and marked a cooldown from the quarter prior, when it was 4.9%.

More troubling was that prices have remained sticky.

Thursday’s data also showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy — a key gauge watched by the Federal Reserve as it weighs whether to cut interest rates — surged at a 3.7% rate in the first quarter, versus the central bank’s 2% target.

Investors and analysts put more weight on the high inflation figure than on signs the economy may finally be cooling, which would generally encourage the Fed to cut rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Index plunged nearly 700 points after the data was released as investors all but gave up hope on the Fed slashing the 23-year high rates more than one time this year — and most likely not until the fall.

The Dow pared some of the losses, closing down 375 points, or 1%. The S&P 500 was down 0.5%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 0.6%.

Data from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed the probability of a Fed rate cut in June at 10% odds, with bets on a September cut slipping below 58%, and a second cut in December given less than even odds.

“This report comes in with mixed messages,” said Olu Sonola, head of economic research at Fitch. “If growth continues to slowly decelerate, but inflation strongly takes off again in the wrong direction, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in 2024 is starting to look increasingly more out of reach.”

The report on GDP, which represents the value of all goods and services produced within a given period, showed that American consumers remain strong after years of hiring and wage growth. Spending was driven by healthcare, financial services and insurance, which offset a decline in goods, including motor vehicles and gasoline.

Biden attempted to spin the GDP data in his favor, touting that “the economy has grown more since I took office than at this point in any presidential term in the last 25 years.”

Gregory Daco, chief economist at the tax and consulting firm EY, noted that the underlying economy looks solid, though its slowing from last years unexpectedly fast pace.

The rise in imports that accounted for much of the drop in first-quarter growth, he noted, is a sign of solid demand by American consumers for foreign goods.

Still, Daco said that the economys momentum is cooling.

Its unlikely to be a major retrenchment, he said, but we are likely to see cooler economic momentum as a result of consumers exercising more scrutiny with their outlays.

US debt has soared to $33 trillion, the highest ever, with the debt-to-GDP ratio topping 100% — at 123%, per the International Monetary Fund, which projects the ratio to reach 130% by 2035.

The Fed has warned that stubbornly high inflation could persist, especially given the resilience of the labor market, which added a whopping 303,000 positions in March.

Though many of the job gains were reportedly taken by migrants — who have been occupying a growing chunk of the US workforce — a strong labor market historically keeps wages and consumer spending levels elevated, thus fanning inflation and interest rates.

As a result, Wall Street is now widely expecting Fed officials to slash two times by the end of the year — down from the previous forecast that there would be three rate cuts totaling 0.75 percentage points.

“Given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it’s appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work and let the data and the evolving outlook guide us,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on April 16.

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Jets’ Scheifele misses G7 because of injury

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Jets' Scheifele misses G7 because of injury

Winnipeg forward Mark Scheifele did not play in Game 7 of the Jets’ first-round Stanley Cup playoff series against the St. Louis Blues on Sunday due to an undisclosed injury, coach Scott Arniel said.

Arniel ruled out Scheifele following the team’s morning skate. He was hurt in Game 5 — playing only 8:05 in the first period before exiting — and then did not travel with the Jets to St. Louis for Game 6. Arniel previously had said Scheifele was a game-time decision for Game 7.

Scheifele, 32, skated in a track suit Saturday, and Arniel told reporters the veteran was feeling better than he had the day before. Scheifele, however, was not able to participate in the Jets’ on-ice session by Sunday, quickly indicating he would not be available for the game.

Winnipeg held a 2-0 lead in the series over St. Louis before the Blues stormed back with a pair of wins to tie it, 2-2. The home team has won each game in the best-of-seven series so far.

The Jets’ challenge in closing out St. Louis only increases without Scheifele. Winnipeg already has been dealing with the uneven play of goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, a significant storyline in the series to date. Hellebuyck was pulled in all three of his starts at St. Louis while giving up a combined 16 goals on 66 shots (.758 SV%). In Game 6, Hellebuyck allowed four goals in only 5 minutes, 23 seconds of the second period.

Hellebuyck was Winnipeg’s backbone during the regular season, earning a Hart Trophy and Vezina Trophy nomination for his impeccable year (.925 SV%, 2.00 GAA).

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Stars expect Robertson, Heiskanen back in semis

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Stars expect Robertson, Heiskanen back in semis

Stars coach Pete DeBoer expects to have leading goal scorer Jason Robertson and standout defenseman Miro Heiskanen available in the Western Conference semifinals after both missed Dallas’ first-round series win over the Colorado Avalanche.

Following their thrilling Game 7 comeback victory over the Avalanche on Saturday night, the Stars await the winner of Sunday night’s Game 7 between the Winnipeg Jets and St. Louis Blues. If the Blues win, the Stars will have home-ice advantage in the best-of-seven series.

“I believe you’re going to see them both play in the second round, but I don’t know if it’s going to be Game 1 or Game 3 or Game 5,” DeBoer said after Saturday’s series clincher. “I consider them both day-to-day now, but there’s still some hurdles. It depends on when we start the series, how much time we have between now and Game 1. We’ll have a little better idea as we get closer.”

Robertson, 25, who posted 80 points (35 goals, 45 assists) in 82 games this season, suffered a lower-body injury in the regular-season finale April 16 and was considered week-to-week at the time.

Heiskanen hasn’t played since injuring his left knee in a Jan. 28 collision with Vegas Golden Knights forward Mark Stone. Initially expected to miss three to four months, the 25-year-old defenseman had surgery Feb. 4 and sat out the final 32 games of the regular season. In 50 games, he collected 25 points (five goals, 20 assists) and averaged 25:10 of ice time, which ranked fifth among NHL blueliners.

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U.S. crude oil prices fall more than 4% after OPEC+ agrees to surge production in June

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U.S. crude oil prices fall more than 4% after OPEC+ agrees to surge production in June

Logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images

U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 4% on Sunday, after OPEC+ agreed to surge production for a second month.

U.S. crude was down $2.49, or 4.27%, to $55.80 a barrel shortly after trading opened. Global benchmark Brent fell $2.39, or 3.9%, to $58.90 per barrel. Oil prices have fallen more than 20% this year.

The eight producers in the group, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed on Saturday to increase output by another 411,000 barrels per day in June. The decision comes a month after OPEC+ surprised the market by agreeing to surge production in May by the same amount.

The June production hike is nearly triple the 140,000 bpd that Goldman Sachs had originally forecast. OPEC+ is bringing more than 800,000 bpd of additional supply to the market over the course of two months.

Oil prices in April posted the biggest monthly loss since 2021, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have raised fears of a recession that will slow demand at the same time that OPEC+ is quickly increasing supply.

Oilfield service firms such as Baker Hughes and SLB are expecting investment in exploration and production to decline this year due to the weak price environment.

“The prospects of an oversupplied oil market, rising tariffs, uncertainty in Mexico and activity weakness in Saudi Arabia are collectively constraining international upstream spending levels,” Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said on the company’s first-quarter earnings call on April 25.

Oil majors Chevron and Exxon reported first-quarter earnings last week that fell compared to the same period in 2024 due to lower oil prices.

Goldman is forecasting that U.S. crude and Brent prices will average $59 and $63 per barrel, respectively, this year.

Catch up on the latest energy news from CNBC Pro:

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