Rishi Sunak will feel ‘reset week’ was job well done – but a horrible reality check awaits

Published

3 weeks ago

April 26, 2024

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Call it the Rishi Sunak reset week or, to borrow from The Spectator’s Katy Balls, the shore-up Sunak week – the prime minister will be going into this weekend feeling the past few days have been a job well done.

He has got his flagship Rwanda bill through parliament and is promising a “regular rhythm” of flights will be getting off the ground from July.

He has also got off the ground himself, with a dash to Poland and then Germany, in a show of strength with European allies in the face of Russian aggression.

As the US finally approved a $61bn military aid package for Ukraine, our prime minister announced he’d lift the UK’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030.

That would amount to £87bn a year by the start of the 2030s, with the UK spending a cumulative extra £75bn on the military over the next six years.

That of course all hinges on winning an election, which I’ll come to soon, but it is a commitment that throws a challenge to Labour and will delight those in his party who have been calling for increased defence spending for months in the face of growing global threats from Russia, China and Iran.

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In Electoral Dysfunction this week, we discuss whether Rishi Sunak, having been battered for much of his premiership, is finally having a week on top?

There is after all a longstanding tradition in this country that when the chips are down, you jump on a plane to try to go somewhere where you’re more appreciated.

And Ruth agrees this week that this has been “one of the better weeks that he’s had in his premiership” and is fully behind his defence spending pledge, while Jess points out that Labour is committed to the “exact same plan for upping defence spending”.

The difference between the two parties is that Rishi Sunak set out in some detail how he plans to get to that point over the course of the next parliament, while Sir Keir Starmer has said only he wants to get to 2.5% “when resources allow”.

And that matters because, as it stands, it’s very likely that it will be Sir Keir who is having to decide whether to increase defence spending levels in the next parliament rather than the incumbent.

Cue an election debate on which leader really cares more about defence and, if Sir Keir really does want go toe-to-toe with Mr Sunak on the 2.5%, how does he pay for it?

That will be a discussion for many other days (Labour’s line on this is that the party will hit the 2.5% “when circumstances allow” rather than setting a firm date) as we head into the general election.

But I had to ask Ruth and Jess, why was he on a publicity blitz announcing it now? Was it something to do with the rather large matter of the local elections?

‘Sunak needs to look big’

At this, both furiously shook their heads and looked at me with a touch of derision. “When it comes to the local elections, I want my bins done, I want my schools to be good, and I want my potholes done. That’s what I care about,” says Ruth.

“The people in Birmingham Yardley speak of nothing else but the 2.5% defence spending,” jokes Jess.

“I see why [he’s doing it this week] but actually I don’t think he’s doing for just another example of doing it this week. He needs to look big in front of his party.”

And there are a couple of things to explore in that.

First, the party management issue of a PM very likely to get completely battered in the local elections throwing his party some red meat ahead of that slaughter to perhaps try to protect himself.

Because the local elections could be bad, very very bad. And that throws up questions about Rishi Sunak’s future and also the date of the next general election.

There is a reason why the prime minister will not be drawn on the timing of the election beyond the “second half of the year”.

While it’s true he doesn’t want to have to “indulge in a guessing game”, as one of his allies put it to me, it’s also true that he can’t rule out a summer election given the unpredictability of next week’s local elections and what could follow.

The Armageddon scenario of losing 500-plus seats, alongside the West Midlands and Teeside mayors, could propel his party into fever pitch panic and possibly trigger a vote of confidence in Rishi Sunak.

Does he then decide to call a general election instead of allowing his party to try to force him out?

‘A man enjoying himself’

For what it’s worth, he did not appear, in any way to me, as a prime minister on that plane over to Berlin from Warsaw, who wanted to give up the job. He seemed, for the first time in a long time, a man enjoying it and getting on with the stuff he wants to get done.

There is also the small matter of being 20 points behind in the polls. I suspect his instinct is very much to hold on in the hope that things begin to turn in his favour.

Because, despite what the critics say, he does seem a man who genuinely believes his Rwanda plan, welfare reforms, defence spending and economic management are all stepping stones on his path to perhaps winning back some support in the country.

“June [or July] is just party management,” says one former cabinet minister. “They are not ready for it and the polling doesn’t work obviously.”

Jess sees the flurry as a “his last ditch attempt” of another reset, and says “the Labour party is not worrying” as the PM tries to pin them on Rwanda or defence spending: “Whatever he goes on is absolutely pilloried within seconds,” she says.

But Ruth argues the defence spending was “actually authentic and a real thing”, and says of the expectations for the local elections that “it’s not just going to be a rout, but an apocalypse, that actually at this point in the cycle it works quite well for Sunak in terms of keeping his job at the back end”.

Observing his various grip and grins this week as I trailed after him meeting the Polish PM, the German chancellor and the NATO secretary general, he is a man that really does want to hold on to that job.

The local elections then are probably going to come as a horrible reality check in just a week’s time as this prime minister, riding high from his European tours, is reminded that his time in office looks like it will be coming to an end – and perhaps even sooner than he might have initially planned.

Politics

Grant Shapps ‘angry inside’ over infected blood scandal ahead of inquiry report

Published

2 hours ago

May 19, 2024

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Grant Shapps 'angry inside' over infected blood scandal ahead of inquiry report

The defence secretary has said he is “angry inside” over the infected blood scandal ahead of a long-waited report into the decades-long injustice.

Grant Shapps told Sky News he agreed it had been one of the most “shameful failures” of government and said he was dismayed by the “lack of anybody taking responsibility”.

The findings of a public inquiry into the scandal, chaired by Sir Brian Langstaff, are due to be published on Monday.

From 1970 to the 1990s, tens of thousands of people were infected with contaminated blood through blood products or blood transfusions given via the NHS. People were infected with hepatitis or HIV – in some cases with both.

An estimated 3,000 people died as a result.

Politics latest: West in an ‘existential battle’ over world order, Shapps warns

Mr Shapps told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips that the scandal was a “massive injustice which needs to be put right” and said the government would act on the report.

He said that while he was yet to see the report, he hoped it would finally allow families’ pain and loss to be acknowledged and for the government to properly respond.

Mr Shapps said he had spoken to relatives of several victims, including a couple who had lost their son, and said their stories made feel him “angry inside”.

He added: “It just made me angry to know they had lost their son without anyone ever taking responsibility, so I think this is why this report tomorrow is very important.”

Successive governments have been blamed for failing to take responsibility and the current government has been accused of trying to delay compensation to victims after an inquiry was first set up by Theresa May in 2017.

It is estimated that the compensation bill could now exceed £10m.

The defence secretary admitted the process of delivering payouts to victims had gone on for “so long”.

He added: “This is a massive injustice which needs to be put right.

“And I know the government said we will. The report tomorrow, I think, will be the day for that family and others and I know the government will want to respond quickly.”

Asked whether Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would apologise to the victims, Mr Shapps said: “I don’t want to mislead because I don’t have special insight into that.”

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Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting also told Trevor Phillips that he expected “successive governments” to be criticised in the report by Sir Brian.

“Everyone has got their responsibility to bear in this appalling scandal and we have got a shared responsibility to put it right,” he said.

“The moment to act can’t come soon enough.”

Sir Brian is due to deliver his final report just after midday on Monday.

Politics

Venezuela bans crypto mining to protect power grid

Published

6 hours ago

May 19, 2024

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Venezuela bans crypto mining to protect power grid

This move follows a recent crackdown that involved confiscating 2,000 cryptocurrency mining devices as part of an anti-corruption initiative.

Politics

Sir Jim Ratcliffe scolds Tories over handling of economy and immigration after Brexit

Published

8 hours ago

May 19, 2024

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Sir Jim Ratcliffe scolds Tories over handling of economy and immigration after Brexit

Billionaire Sir Jim Ratcliffe has told Sky News that Britain is ready for a change of government after scolding the Conservatives over their handling of the economy and immigration after Brexit.

While insisting his petrochemicals conglomerate INEOS is apolitical, Sir Jim backed Brexit and spent last weekend with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer at Manchester United – the football club he now runs as minority owner.

“I’m sure Keir will do a very good job at running the country – I have no questions about that,” Sir Jim said in an exclusive interview.

“There’s no question that the Conservatives have had a good run,” he added. “I think most of the country probably feels it’s time for a change. And I sort of get that, really.”

Sir Jim was a prominent backer of leaving the European Union in the 2016 referendum but now has issues with how Brexit was delivered by Tory prime ministers.

“Brexit sort of unfortunately didn’t turn out as people anticipated because… Brexit was largely about immigration,” Sir Jim said.

“That was the biggest component of that vote. People were getting fed up with the influx of the city of Southampton coming in every year. I think last year it was two times Southampton.

“I mean, no small island like the UK could cope with vast numbers of people coming into the UK.

“I mean, it just overburdens the National Health Service, the traffic service, the police, everybody.

“The country was designed for 55 or 60 million people and we’ve got 70 million people and all the services break down as a consequence.

“That’s what Brexit was all about and nobody’s implemented that. They just keep talking about it. But nothing’s been done, which is why I think we’ll finish up with the change of government.”

Watch Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s full interview on the Trevor Phillips on Sunday morning programme on Sky News from 8.30am

UK needs to get ‘sharper on the business front’

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has indicated an election is due this year but Monaco-based Sir Jim is unimpressed by the Conservatives’ handling of the economy.

“The UK does need to get a bit sharper on the business front,” he said. “I think the biggest objective for the government is to create growth in the economy.

“There’s two parts of the economy, there’s the services side of the economy and there’s the manufacturing side. And the manufacturing, unfortunately, has been sliding away now for the last 25 years.

“We were very similar in scale to Germany probably 25 years ago.

“But today we’re just a fraction of where Germany is and I think that isn’t healthy for the British economy… particularly when you think the north of England is very manufacturing based, and that talks to things like energy competitiveness, it talks to things like, why do you put an immensely high tax on the North Sea?

“That just disincentivises people from finding hydrocarbons in the North Sea, in energy.

“And what we need is competitive energy. So I mean, in America, in the energy world, in the oil and gas world, they just apply a corporation tax to the oil and gas companies, which is about 30%. And in the UK we’ve got this tax of 75% because we want to kill off the oil and gas companies.

“But if we don’t have competitive energy, we’re not going to have a healthy manufacturing industry. And that just makes no sense to me at all. No.”

‘We’re apolitical’

Asked about INEOS donating to Labour, Sir Jim replied: “We’re apolitical, INEOS.

“We just want a successful manufacturing sector in the UK and we’ve talked to the government about that. It’s pretty clear about our views.”

Sir Jim was keener to talk about the economy and politics than his role at struggling Manchester United, which he bought a 27.7% stake in from the American Glazer family in February – giving him an even higher business profile.

Push for stadium of the North

He is continuing to push for public funds to regenerate Old Trafford and the surrounding areas despite no apparent political support being forthcoming. Sir Keir was hosted at the stadium for a Premier League match last weekend just as heavy rain exposed the fragility of the ageing venue.

“There’s a very good case, in my view, for having a stadium of the North, which would serve the northern part of the country in that arena of football,” Sir Jim said. “If you look at the number of Champions League the North West has won, it’s 10. London has won two.

“And yet everybody from the North has to get down to London to watch a big football match. And there should be one [a large stadium] in the North, in my view.

“But it’s also important for the southern side of Manchester, you know, to regenerate.

“It’s the sort of second capital of the country where the Industrial Revolution began.

“But if you have a regeneration project, you need a nucleus or a regeneration project and having that world-class stadium there, I think would provide the impetus to regenerate that region.”