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The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation showed prices once again rose at an unexpectedly brisk rate in March, marking another setback for rate-cut timing.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 0.3% in March from the previous month and 2.8% year-over-year, according to the latest Bureau of Economic Analysis data released Friday.

The core figure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was above the 2.6% figure economists at FactSet were expecting, and held steady with the 2.8% advance that took place in February.

Headline PCE, which factors in food and energy, also rose 0.3% last month, or 2.7% on an annualized basis — again above expectations of 2.6%.

Historically, a strong job market keeps wages and consumer spending levels elevated, thus fanning inflation and interest rates, which Wall Street is widely expecting Fed officials to slash three times by a cumulative 0.75 percentage points by the end of the year.

The economic data comes just one day after the Commerce Department reported that the US economy grew at its slowest pace in two years in the first quarter.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized pace of 1.6% during the three-month period ended in March — below the 2.4% projected by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

More troubling was that prices have remained sticky, according to Friday’s PCE reading.

The closely watched figure remains far from the Fed’s 2% target, which the US economy has not seen in more than a decade.

Policymakers have struggled to edge closer to their lofty goal in the face of stubbornly high inflation and a surprisingly resilient labor market.

The latest jobs report in March, for example, blew past economist expectations and said employers increased their payrolls by a staggering 303,000 last month.

Yet again, the data point did not serve well for rate-cut timing as historically, a strong job market keeps wages and consumer spending levels elevated, thus fanning inflation and interest rates.

Employers are also paying higher wages because of new minimum wage laws similar to the one that went into effect in California this month — while jacked-up prices for food, gas, rent and many other items have remained elevated since the surge that followed the pandemic.

Consensus among traders is that the Fed will now hold off until September before it slashes rates from their current 23-year-high, between 5.25% and 5.5%.

They are also predicting there will be two cuts of 25 basis points instead of the three that had been projected this year, totaling 75 basis points.

The stubborn inflation complicates President Joe Bidens claims to be making steady progress against higher prices. Biden had previously suggested that lower inflation would lead the Fed to cut rates, but he hedged that prediction earlier this month.

Biden also attempted to spin the GDP data in his favor on Thursday, touting that the economy has grown more since I took office than at this point in any presidential term in the last 25 years.

However, US debt has soared to $33 trillion since the 81-year-old commander-in-chief took office, the highest ever.

The debt-to-GDP ratio now tops 100% — at 123%, per the International Monetary Fund, which projects the ratio to reach 130% by 2035.

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Jets’ Scheifele misses G7 because of injury

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Jets' Scheifele misses G7 because of injury

Winnipeg forward Mark Scheifele did not play in Game 7 of the Jets’ first-round Stanley Cup playoff series against the St. Louis Blues on Sunday due to an undisclosed injury, coach Scott Arniel said.

Arniel ruled out Scheifele following the team’s morning skate. He was hurt in Game 5 — playing only 8:05 in the first period before exiting — and then did not travel with the Jets to St. Louis for Game 6. Arniel previously had said Scheifele was a game-time decision for Game 7.

Scheifele, 32, skated in a track suit Saturday, and Arniel told reporters the veteran was feeling better than he had the day before. Scheifele, however, was not able to participate in the Jets’ on-ice session by Sunday, quickly indicating he would not be available for the game.

Winnipeg held a 2-0 lead in the series over St. Louis before the Blues stormed back with a pair of wins to tie it, 2-2. The home team has won each game in the best-of-seven series so far.

The Jets’ challenge in closing out St. Louis only increases without Scheifele. Winnipeg already has been dealing with the uneven play of goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, a significant storyline in the series to date. Hellebuyck was pulled in all three of his starts at St. Louis while giving up a combined 16 goals on 66 shots (.758 SV%). In Game 6, Hellebuyck allowed four goals in only 5 minutes, 23 seconds of the second period.

Hellebuyck was Winnipeg’s backbone during the regular season, earning a Hart Trophy and Vezina Trophy nomination for his impeccable year (.925 SV%, 2.00 GAA).

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Stars expect Robertson, Heiskanen back in semis

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Stars expect Robertson, Heiskanen back in semis

Stars coach Pete DeBoer expects to have leading goal scorer Jason Robertson and standout defenseman Miro Heiskanen available in the Western Conference semifinals after both missed Dallas’ first-round series win over the Colorado Avalanche.

Following their thrilling Game 7 comeback victory over the Avalanche on Saturday night, the Stars await the winner of Sunday night’s Game 7 between the Winnipeg Jets and St. Louis Blues. If the Blues win, the Stars will have home-ice advantage in the best-of-seven series.

“I believe you’re going to see them both play in the second round, but I don’t know if it’s going to be Game 1 or Game 3 or Game 5,” DeBoer said after Saturday’s series clincher. “I consider them both day-to-day now, but there’s still some hurdles. It depends on when we start the series, how much time we have between now and Game 1. We’ll have a little better idea as we get closer.”

Robertson, 25, who posted 80 points (35 goals, 45 assists) in 82 games this season, suffered a lower-body injury in the regular-season finale April 16 and was considered week-to-week at the time.

Heiskanen hasn’t played since injuring his left knee in a Jan. 28 collision with Vegas Golden Knights forward Mark Stone. Initially expected to miss three to four months, the 25-year-old defenseman had surgery Feb. 4 and sat out the final 32 games of the regular season. In 50 games, he collected 25 points (five goals, 20 assists) and averaged 25:10 of ice time, which ranked fifth among NHL blueliners.

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U.S. crude oil prices fall more than 4% after OPEC+ agrees to surge production in June

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U.S. crude oil prices fall more than 4% after OPEC+ agrees to surge production in June

Logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images

U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 4% on Sunday, after OPEC+ agreed to surge production for a second month.

U.S. crude was down $2.49, or 4.27%, to $55.80 a barrel shortly after trading opened. Global benchmark Brent fell $2.39, or 3.9%, to $58.90 per barrel. Oil prices have fallen more than 20% this year.

The eight producers in the group, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed on Saturday to increase output by another 411,000 barrels per day in June. The decision comes a month after OPEC+ surprised the market by agreeing to surge production in May by the same amount.

The June production hike is nearly triple the 140,000 bpd that Goldman Sachs had originally forecast. OPEC+ is bringing more than 800,000 bpd of additional supply to the market over the course of two months.

Oil prices in April posted the biggest monthly loss since 2021, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have raised fears of a recession that will slow demand at the same time that OPEC+ is quickly increasing supply.

Oilfield service firms such as Baker Hughes and SLB are expecting investment in exploration and production to decline this year due to the weak price environment.

“The prospects of an oversupplied oil market, rising tariffs, uncertainty in Mexico and activity weakness in Saudi Arabia are collectively constraining international upstream spending levels,” Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said on the company’s first-quarter earnings call on April 25.

Oil majors Chevron and Exxon reported first-quarter earnings last week that fell compared to the same period in 2024 due to lower oil prices.

Goldman is forecasting that U.S. crude and Brent prices will average $59 and $63 per barrel, respectively, this year.

Catch up on the latest energy news from CNBC Pro:

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