Morgan Stanley banker sees 10 to 15 more tech IPOs in 2024, and a ‘better year’ in 2025
Following a long period of waiting, “the IPO market’s back.”
That’s according to Colin Stewart, Morgan Stanley’s global head of technology equity capital markets. In an interview with CNBC’s “TechCheck” on Monday, Stewart said 10 to 15 more tech companies could go public before the end of 2024, with an even “better year” in store for 2025.
“It’s been a long two and a half years, where we’ve had really nothing,” Stewart said. Recent initial public offerings have priced high and traded well, which “bodes well for the future,” he added.
The lull began in 2022, when soaring inflation and rising interest rates pushed investors out of risk, slashed tech valuations and led many tech companies to delay their plans to go public. It was a sharp contrast to the prior two years, which saw a record number of deals, including some at astronomical revenue multiples.
The IPO market cracked open in September, with the debuts of Instacart and Klaviyo. But the first real signs of momentum came last month, as Reddit became the first IPO for a major social media company since Pinterest in 2019 and data center connectivity chip company Astera Labs rocketed on its first day of trading.
Both stocks remain well above their IPO price, with Astera up about 145% as investors pour money into all things tied to artificial intelligence.
Morgan Stanley was the lead banker on the Reddit and Astera IPOs, positioning itself to collect roughly $37 million in total fees.
Wall Street rival Goldman Sachs led the latest venture-backed tech IPO last week. Rubrik, which develops data management software, jumped 16% in its New York Stock Exchange debut.
Bipul Sinha, CEO, Chairman & Co-Founder of Rubrik Inc., the Microsoft backed cybersecurity software startup, waves a flag while posing with employees during the company’s IPO at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 25, 2024.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
Stewart, who’s had a hand in some of the largest offerings of the last few decades, said it usually takes six months to take an IPO to the finish line. That means companies currently considering an IPO are likely to hold off until 2025 to avoid intersecting with the U.S. presidential election in November, he said.
As for valuations, Stewart said the market has retreated from the peak days of 2021, and multiples in software and other parts of technology are now back to levels seen in 2018 and 2019. Stewart described 2021 as an “amazing year” but also “exhausting.”
“What’s happened in the last six to 12 months is that the market has gotten more comfortable with paying for growth again,” Stewart said. “We’re not back to the levels of 2021, but we are getting a fair price for growth. And I think at those prices, you’re starting to see companies say, ‘You know, it’s actually not bad to be a public company.'”
Still, the most valuable, late-stage companies have yet to hit the exits. That list includes Elon Musk’s SpaceX along with Stripe and Databricks.
While Stewart said he’d “love to take them public,” he acknowledged that the challenge for the bigger names is “they’ve got scale, they’ve got growth, investors are giving them lots of capital” and they’re investing toward the future.
“Right now the IPO is not on their near-term horizon, unfortunately,” he said. “But when it does come they’ll be blockbuster.”
Samuel Boivin | Nurphoto | Getty Images
TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew told employees on Thursday that the company’s U.S. operations will be housed in a new joint venture.
The entity is named TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, according to a memo sent by Chew and obtained by CNBC. As part of the joint venture, Chew said the company has signed agreements with the three managing investors: Oracle, Silver Lake, and Abu Dhabi-based MGX. He said that the deal’s “closing date” is Jan. 22.
Under a national security law, which the Supreme Court upheld in January, China-based ByteDance was required to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations or face an effective ban in the country. In September, President Donald Trump signed an executive order approving a proposed deal that would keep TikTok operational in the U.S. by meeting the requirements of a law originally signed by former President Joe Biden.
Chew noted that the new TikTok joint venture would be “majority owned by American investors, governed by a new seven-member majority-American board of directors, and subject to terms that protect Americans’ data and U.S. national security.”
The U.S. joint venture will be 50% held by a consortium of new investors, including Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX with 15% each. Just over 30% will be held by affiliates of certain existing investors of ByteDance, and 19.9% will be retained by ByteDance, the memo said.
The TikTok chief said the entity will be responsible for protecting U.S. data, ensuring the security of its prized algorithm, content moderation and “software assurance.” He added that the joint venture will “have the exclusive right and authority to provide assurances that content, software, and data for American users is secure.”
In addition to being an investor, Oracle will serve as the “trusted security partner” in charge of auditing and validating that it complies with “agreed upon National Security Terms,” the memo said. Sensitive U.S. data will be stored in Oracle’s U.S.-based cloud computing data centers, Chew wrote.
The new TikTok entity will also be tasked with retraining the video app’s core content recommendation algorithm “on U.S. user data to ensure the content feed is free from outside manipulation,” the memo said.
Chew noted that TikTok global U.S. entities “will manage global product interoperability and certain commercial activities, including e-commerce, advertising, and marketing.”
Under Trump’s executive order in September, the attorney general was blocked from enforcing the national security law for a 120-day period in order to “permit the contemplated divestiture to be completed,” allowing the deal to finalize by Jan 23.
WATCH: TikTok signs deal for sale of U.S. unit to joint venture
The VC arms of Google and Nvidia have invested in Swedish vibe coding startup Lovable’s $330 million Series B at a $6.6 billion valuation, the company announced on Thursday.
The news confirms an earlier story from CNBC, which reported on Tuesday that Lovable had raised at that valuation, trebling its valuation from its previous round in July, and that the investors included U.S. VC firms Accel and Khosla Ventures.
CapitalG, one of Google’s VC divisions, and Menlo Ventures led the round. Alongside Accel and Khosla, Nvidia venture arm NVentures, actor Gwyneth Paltrow’s VC firm Kinship Ventures, Salesforce Ventures, Databricks Ventures, Atlassian Ventures, T.Capital, Hubspot Ventures, DST Global, EQT Global, Creandum and Evantic also participated.
The fresh funds take Lovable’s total raised in 2025 to over $500 million.
“Lovable has done something rare: built a product that enterprises and founders both love,” said Laela Sturdy, managing partner at CapitalG in a statement accompanying the announcement.
“The demand we’re seeing from Fortune 500 companies signals a fundamental shift in how software gets built.”
Lovable’s platform uses AI models from providers like OpenAI and Anthropic to help users build apps and websites using text prompts, without technical knowledge of coding.
The startup reported $200 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in November, just under a year after achieving $1 million in ARR for the first time. It was founded in 2023 by Anton Osika and Fabian Hedin.
Vibe coding startups have seen big interest from VCs in recent times, as investors bet on their promise of drastically reducing the time it takes to create software and apps.
In the U.S., Anysphere, which created coding tool Cursor, raised $2.3 billion at a $29.3 billion valuation in November. In September, Replit hit a $3 billion price tag after picking up $250 million and Vercel closed a $300 million round at a $9.3 billion valuation.
The Micron logo is seen displayed at the 8th China International Import Expo.
Sheldon Cooper | Lightrocket | Getty Images
Micron Technology‘s stock jumped 15% after the company signaled robust demand for its memory chips and blew away fiscal first-quarter estimates.
During an earnings call with analysts, Micron, which makes memory storage used for computers and artificial intelligence servers, said data center needs have fueled greater demand for its products.
Micron said it expects the total addressable market for high-bandwidth memory to hit $100 billion by 2028, growing at a 40% compounded annual growth rate. Management also upped its capital expenditures guidance to $20 billion from $18 billion.
“We are more than sold out,” said business chief Sumit Sadana. “We have a significant amount of unmet demand in our models and this is just consistent with an environment where the demand is substantially higher than supply for the foreseeable future.
Micron topped Wall Street estimates for the fiscal first quarter and issued blowout guidance.
The company reported adjusted earnings of $4.78 per share on $13.64 billion in revenue, surpassing LSEG estimates for earnings of $3.95 per share and $12.84 billion in sales.
Revenues in the current quarter are expected to hit about $18.70 billion, blowing past the $14.20 billion expected by LSEG. Adjusted earnings are forecast to reach $8.42, versus expectations of $4.78 per share.
JPMorgan upped its price target on the stock following the results, citing the favorable pricing setup, while Bank of America upgraded shares to a buy rating.
Morgan Stanley called the results the best revenue and net income upside in the “history of the U.S. semis industry” outside of Nvidia.
“If AI keeps growing as we expect, we believe that the next 12 months are going to have broader coat tails to the AI trade than just the processor names and memory would be the biggest beneficiary,” analysts wrote.
WATCH: Micron shares spike on better-than-expected quarterly results
Micron year-to-date stock chart.
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