John Swinney is expected to declare his bid to become the new leader of the SNP later today, Sky News understands.
It comes after Humza Yousaf announced he was standing down as SNP leader and Scotland’s first minister following his decision last week to cut power-sharing ties with the Scottish Greens – a move which saw his leadership collapse.
Mr Swinney previously served as SNP leader between 2000 and 2004; later becoming Nicola Sturgeon’s number two from 2014 to 2023.
He is considered a front-runner for the top job once again, having garnered support from senior figures within his party, including from the SNP’s Westminster leader, Stephen Flynn.
The Perthshire North MSP is expected to make a statement in Edinburgh on Thursday morning.
However, he could face competition from the party’s former finance minister Kate Forbes, who narrowly lost out to Mr Yousaf in last year’s leadership election.
Image: Kate Forbes. Pic: PA
Though the Skye, Lochaber, and Badenoch MSP has not confirmed her intention to enter the leadership contest, she has so far refused to rule herself out of the race.
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“I am still considering all the options, but I also know that there is a lot of support for me across the country and across the party, and last year proved that,” she told Sky News on Tuesday.
It comes after the outgoing first minister, Mr Yousaf, was forced to resign following the breakdown of the Bute House Agreement.
Within hours of the power-sharing deal coming to an end, Mr Yousaf faced the threat of a no confidence vote in himself, and later from one in the Scottish government.
Image: Humza Yousaf speaking to Sky News
Mr Yousaf stepped down as Scotland’s first minister just after midday on Monday, saying he was “not willing to treat my values and principles or do deals with whomever simply for retaining power”.
He said he would remain in post until a replacement first minister was chosen.
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It is not hard to see why Sir Keir Starmer ends up doing quite so many foreign trips.
On the road to Mumbai, India, from the airport there were giant pictures of the British prime minister looming over the sealed-off roads cleared for his special VIP convoy.
There was nothing short of a carnival along the roadside to greet the cars.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer during a visit to an FA Premier League training facility in Mumbai. Pic: PA
People who knew nothing about Sir Keir – and were happy to admit so to me – dressed up for the occasion in plumes of feathers and chicken costumes and danced to music. The Labour conference does not come close to that.
This trip has a big first – 125 blue chip business leaders, more than any business delegation in history – are here. The enthusiasm to take advantage of the signed, though not completed, free trade deal is clear.
“I think the importance of this trip is reflected by the huge British delegation we’ve got here today,” said Shevaun Haviland, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce.
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“A hundred and twenty five businesses, biggest UK names Beattie, BP, British Airways, Diageo, Virgin, huge businesses all the way through to incredible AI and energy start-ups from around the UK.”
But business leaders have been clear to me that they haven’t simply joined the delegation to further their activities in India. They want to raise their profile with the prime minister, in order to ensure their voice is heard when it needs to be by the government.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer at a Diwali ceremony in Mumbai. Pic: PA
And the picture some paint of life back in the UK is more challenging. CEO of leading architecture firm Benoy, Tom Cartledge, said how 10 to 15 years ago their business was 90% UK activity, and now it is 90% overseas. He said markets like India are important in part because the UK environment is challenging.
“We’re having to go and find new markets because what we do is design big projects, infrastructure, real estate towers, residential, retail,” he told me.
He went on: “There really is a perception of overseas markets that we are sluggish, low productivity, high tax rates. And that does nothing for the confidence. And in fact, I spoke to an Indian client this morning who said that they are relocating from the head offices to Dubai, because the perception is it’s going to get harder, it’s going to get tougher in the UK and we just do not need that.”
It is rare for business figures on a PM delegation to speak so openly.
Image: The PM visits a Premier league youth training facility with ex-England footballer Michael Owen. Pic: PA
Ms Haviland told me that business figures are using this trip to pass a message to the prime minister.
“We want to see no more tax for business,” she told me, saying that’s the message being conveyed right now in India. I asked what they say back? “They hear us,” she replied. “I think we’ll have to wait and see.”
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Another important voice is Rohan Malik, managing partner of EY. He says there’s an optimistic case for the UK over the medium term but suggested short-term challenges for the government.
“No one likes taxes, but at the same time, they are a necessary way for the government to balance the books.
“If I take a five or seven-year view, I feel more optimistic about the future, because I do think some short-term pain will lead to some long-term gains.”
Does he think the business community could bear paying a bit more?
“I think it’s going to be tricky for the chancellor,” he said.
“I don’t envy her position at all to be looking at different, but she’s got other of disposal businesses, but not like more taxation. At the same time, we have to be prepared to understand how do we try and contribute more towards economic growth?”
The candour is not something I can remember from business delegations in the past. That’s a response to the nervousness about a £20bn-£30bn black hole Chancellor Rachel Reeves will have to fill in the November budget. Overall the delegates remain on side – for now.
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