Prospect of ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas soon evaporated
It’s been a whiplash-inducing 36 hours in Washington. Breakthrough or broke in Gaza?
The prospect of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, which had seemed possible during the weekend, ebbed away as Sunday turned to Monday. Then a moment, but one which soon evaporated.
So what’s going on?
When President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by phone late on Monday morning, hope for a deal, being hashed out thousands of miles away in the Qatari capital, Doha, seemed slim.
Instead the focus was on what Mr Netanyahu planned to do with the troops he had ordered to amass in southern Israel just over the Israeli border fence from the Gazan city of Rafah.
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Israeli airstrikes hit Rafah. Pic: AP
As Mr Netanyahu and Mr Biden spoke, leaflets were fluttering down over Rafah, telling the more than a million people there to leave, to head north to Israeli-self-declared safe zones.
President Biden has repeatedly told the Israeli leadership America would not support a ground invasion of Rafah without a comprehensive and workable plan for the civilians – a plan that has not been forthcoming.
But over the past six months, we’ve all learnt American influence over its ally Israel has its limits.
Even US military officials have questioned the logic of a massive ground invasion of such a heavily populated area.
They understand the basic military objectives of rooting out the remaining Hamas battalions hiding in Rafah. Yes, those fighters are hiding behind civilians, but shouldn’t that give pause for thought rather than ploughing on regardless?
Analysis: Peace in Gaza looks as distant as ever
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Displaced people react to IDF’s evacuation warning
Military operation doomed to fail?
The consequences of Israel’s policy of flattening the cities north of Rafah are yet to be calculated.
Beyond the elusive concept of “total victory”, Mr Netanyahu has never explained what his political endgame is or who the political partner in Gaza would be.
By the measure of most students of warfare and history, any military operation which lacks a clear political endgame is doomed to fail and will make a lasting settlement so much harder.
The phone call between Mr Biden and Mr Netanyahu lasted about half an hour and we’re told it was “constructive”.
The president “made clear” his views on the Rafah operation “that could potentially put more than a million innocent people at greater risk”, his spokesperson said.
But the vibes from Israel were that the Rafah operation was looking more likely than not.
Palestinians cheer after Hamas announced it had accepted a ceasefire proposal. Pic: Reuters
Hamas agrees to ceasefire deal
Then, at lunchtime in Washington, news suddenly of a potential breakthrough.
Hamas had issued a statement agreeing to the ceasefire deal.
A big moment it seemed. But what, precisely, were the terms of the deal they had agreed to? Which deal was it? The one Secretary of State Antony Blinken had trumpeted in yet another tour of the region last week? He’d called it “generous”.
It wasn’t clear, and as I write, it’s still not entirely clear.
But in Rafah – they’d got wind of it. The scenes of jubilation were honestly sad to watch. They are so desperate for peace but they’re so likely to be let down.
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‘There is not a deal, there is no acceptance’
White House spokesperson unaware of latest bombings
A little later, no word from President Biden, but his spokesperson, John Kirby, was busy treading water. “We’re currently reviewing the response,” was the White House line.
Mr Kirby was then asked if he was aware bombs were being dropped on Rafah as he spoke. Was that not a clear indication that Mr Netanyahu was rejecting whatever Hamas had agreed to?
He was not aware of the latest bombings, he said.
Then, in an optically terrible moment, as the White House spokesman was saying (again) that President Biden was uneasy, at best, about something Israel was planning, Israel went right ahead and did it anyway.
An IDF statement was published which said: “The IDF is currently conducting targeted strikes against Hamas terror targets in eastern Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Details to follow.”
The statement confirmed what our local teams on the ground were seeing and hearing with their eyes and ears.
Palestinians flee Rafah after the Israeli army ordered them to evacuate
Smoke rises from Rafah after an Israeli airstrike. Pics: AP
Israel to send team to Egypt for ceasefire talks
My social media feeds are again full of the sort of images which we could never publish on taste grounds but which we have seen so many times during the course of this war.
Then a statement from Mr Netanyahu’s office – the war cabinet had “unanimously decided Israel will continue its operation in Rafah, in order to apply military pressure on Hamas so as to advance the release of our hostages and achieve the other objectives of the war”.
It added that a team would be sent to Egypt to “maximise the possibility of reaching an agreement on terms acceptable to Israel”.
Jordan could be key to ceasefire
Rafah is part of Mr Netanyahu’s negotiating strategy of course.
President Biden happened to be having lunch with King Abdullah of Jordan at the White House as news of the Hamas agreement came through.
In a conflict where we look hard for honest brokers to decipher what’s actually going on, perhaps Jordan is close?
It’s a key Arab nation, made up of so many exiled Palestinians, but a diplomatic partner to Israel and a key ally of America.
Netanyahu ‘jeopardising the deal by bombing Rafah’
After the lunch there was no comment from Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi when I asked him if a deal was really possible.
Then, a tweet from him: “Tremendous effort has been made to produce an exchange deal that’ll release hostages and realise a ceasefire. Hamas has put out an offer. If Netanyahu genuinely wants a deal, he will negotiate the offer in earnest. Instead, he is jeopardising the deal by bombing Rafah.”
The opposing view is that Hamas has laid a trap, subtly shifting the terms of the deal allowing the world to think it’s Israel who has rejected it.
There is one indisputable trap: Gaza. A miserable cycle of human suffering in a locked-off strip of land.
World
Trump criticises Putin after potentially ‘historic’ meeting with Zelenskyy before Pope’s funeral
Donald Trump has criticised Vladimir Putin and suggested a shift in his stance towards the Russian president after a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy before the Pope’s funeral.
The Ukrainian president said the one-on-one talks could prove to be “historic” after pictures showed him sitting opposite Mr Trump, around two feet apart, in the large marble hall inside St Peter’s Basilica.
The US president said he doubted his Russian counterpart’s willingness to end the war after leaving Rome after the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican.
Follow live updates: 200,000 mourn at Vatican
In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said “there was no reason” for the Russian president “to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days”.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
He added: “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!”
The meeting between the US and Ukrainian leaders was their first face-to-face encounter since a very public row in the Oval Office in February.
Mr Zelenskyy said he had a good meeting with Mr Trump in which they talked about the defence of the Ukrainian people, a full and unconditional ceasefire, and a durable and lasting peace that would prevent the war restarting.
Other images released by the Ukrainian president’s office show Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron were present for part of the talks, which were described as “positive” by the French presidency.
Mr Zelenskyy‘s spokesman said the meeting lasted for around 15 minutes and he and Mr Trump had agreed to hold further discussions later on Saturday.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in the Basilica
But the US president left Rome for Washington on Air Force One soon after the funeral without any other talks having taken place.
The Ukrainian president’s office said there was no second meeting in Rome because of the tight schedule of both leaders, although he had separate discussions with Mr Starmer and Mr Macron.
The French president said in a post on X “Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire” and that a so-called coalition of the willing, led by the UK and France, would continue working to achieve a lasting peace.
There was applause from some of the other world leaders in attendance at the Vatican when Mr Zelenskyy walked out of St Peter’s Basilica after stopping in front of the pontiff’s coffin to pay his respects.
Donald Trump and the Ukrainian president met for the first time since their Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters
Sir Tony Brenton, the former British ambassador to Russia, said the event presents diplomatic opportunities, including the “biggest possible meeting” between Mr Trump and the Ukrainian leader.
He told Sky News it could mark “an important step” in starting the peace process between Russia and Ukraine.
Professor Father Francesco Giordano told Sky News the meeting is being called “Pope Francis’s miracle” by members of the clergy, adding: “There’s so many things that happened today – it was just overwhelming.”
The bilateral meeting comes after Mr Trump’s peace negotiator Steve Witkoff held talks with Mr Putin at the Kremlin.
They discussed “the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine”, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.
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Russia and Ukraine have not held direct talks since the early weeks of the war, which began in February 2022.
Mr Trump has claimed a deal to end the war is “very close” and has urged Mr Zelenskyy to “get it done” in a post on his Truth Social platform.
He has previously warned both sides his administration would walk away from its efforts to achieve a peace if the two sides do not agree a deal soon.
Meanwhile, the Polish armed forces said a Russian military helicopter violated its airspace over the Baltic Sea on Friday evening.
“The nature of the incident indicates that Russia is testing the readiness of our air defence systems,” they said in a post on X.
On an extraordinary day, remarkable pictures on the margins that capture what may be a turning point for the world.
In a corner of St Peter’s Basilica before the funeral of Pope Francis, the leaders of America and Ukraine sit facing each other in two solitary chairs.
They look like confessor and sinner except we cannot tell which one is which.
Leaning forward hands together in their laps, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy stare at each other in one photo.
In another, the Ukrainian president seems to be remonstrating with the US president. This is their first encounter since their infamous bust-up in the Oval Office.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
Other pictures show the moment their French and British counterparts introduced the two men. There is a palpable sense of nervousness in the way the leaders engage.
We do not know what the two presidents said in their brief meeting.
But in the mind of the Ukrainian leader will be the knowledge President Trump has this week said America will reward Russia for its unprovoked brutal invasion of his country, under any peace deal.
Mr Trump has presented Ukraine and Russia with a proposal and ultimatum so one-sided it could have been written in the Kremlin.
Kyiv must surrender the land Russia has taken by force, Crimea forever, the rest at least for now. And it must submit to an act of extortion, a proposed deal that would hand over half its mineral wealth effectively to America.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Afterwards, Zelenskyy said it had been a good meeting that could turn out to be historic “if we reach results together”.
They had talked, he said, about the defence of Ukraine, a full and unconditional ceasefire and a durable and lasting peace that will prevent a war restarting.
The Trump peace proposal includes only unspecified security guarantees for Ukraine from countries that do not include the US. It rules out any membership of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s allies are watching closely to see if Mr Trump will apply any pressure on Vladimir Putin, let alone punish him for recent bloody attacks on Ukraine.
Or will he simply walk away if the proposal fails, blaming Ukrainian intransigence, however outrageously, before moving onto a rapprochement with Moscow.
If he does, America’s role as guarantor of international security will be seen effectively as over.
This could be the week we see the world order as we have known it since the end of the Second World War buried, as well as a pope.
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