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There are many in Israel who don’t believe Benjamin Netanyahu wants a new hostage deal, and they’re not just the families of those still being held in Gaza.

Such is the scepticism with which Israel’s prime minister is now regarded, a growing number of Israelis are starting to think their embattled leader wants to string out the fighting as long as possible as a means to remain in office.

Having spent much of Monday blaming Hamas for collapsing ceasefire talks, the group’s dramatic acceptance of a ceasefire proposal last night certainly threw the Israeli government.

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IDF ‘take control’ of crossing in Gaza

War latest: 20 militants killed as Israel takes partial control of crossing

Whether or not Hamas has agreed to the same Israeli proposal that Antony Blinken described as “generous” only a few days ago however, is unclear.

The Israeli government’s initial response, late last night, was to claim it was a different proposal and something Israel had not agreed to.

There are parties to these negotiations who will know if that is true or not: The CIA Director Bill Burns has spent much time in the Middle East over recent months and has been criss-crossing between Cairo, Doha and Tel Aviv over the past few days.

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He will be fully across each word of any proposal and how the language has shifted; he will know who is acting in good faith, and if either side isn’t.

The fact the Israeli war cabinet has agreed to send a negotiating team to Cairo today, something they didn’t do last week, shows they are taking this seriously, but the parallel move to send IDF troops into Rafah complicates matters.

Pic: Reuters
Houses damaged in an Israeli strike are seen, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip May 7, 2024. REUTERS/Hatem Khaled
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Houses damaged in an Israeli strike in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip. Pic: Reuters

There are two opposing schools of thought here; one says that Netanyahu’s decision to keep fighting and attack Rafah shows he doesn’t want to halt the war, knowing that a ceasefire could very likely spell the end of his government if its right-wing allies resign in protest.

The other view is that Netanyahu has upped the military pressure on Hamas to achieve a hostage deal, just at the moment negotiations are reaching a decisive point.

To suggest Netanyahu is deliberately blocking a new deal “is like Hitler indicting Churchill” a source close to the prime minister texted me on Monday night.

Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike on buildings near the separating wall between Egypt and Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, Monday, May 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Ramez Habboub)
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An Israeli airstrike on buildings near the separating wall between Egypt and Rafah. Pic: AP

When I asked if Hamas was “playing the PM”, I got laughter emojis back.

But an invasion of Rafah would be a final roll of the dice.

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Displaced people react to IDF’s evacuation warning

Sure, it remains the final unexplored bastion of Hamas in Gaza, but is it really the location of [Hamas leaders] Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif and the remaining hostages and would a full-scale operation in Rafah finally achieve Israel’s outstanding objectives?

Read more:
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It’s a gamble, and if it doesn’t succeed, Netanyahu will be left with few places to turn.

Palestinians flee Rafah after the Israeli army ordered them to evacuate. Pic: AP
Image:
Palestinians flee Rafah after the Israeli army ordered them to evacuate. Pic: AP

This might be the best deal Netanyahu is going to get then, and he is now under pressure to decide.

If the US, Qatar, Egypt and Hamas all agree it’s a good deal, how can Bibi reject it without being seen as the one preventing the hostages from returning home?

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Britain rattles its sabre at Russia’s spy ship – but is it a hollow threat?

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Britain rattles its sabre at Russia's spy ship - but is it a hollow threat?

A fierce warning from Britain’s defence secretary to Vladimir Putin to turn his spy ship away from UK waters or face the consequences was a very public attempt to deter the threat.

But unless John Healey backs his rhetoric up with a far more urgent push to rearm – and to rebuild wider national resilience – he risks his words ringing as hollow as his military.

The defence secretary on Wednesday repeated government plans to increase defence spending and work with NATO allies to bolster European security.

Russian Ship Yantar transiting through the English Channel. 
File pic: MOD
Image:
Russian Ship Yantar transiting through the English Channel.
File pic: MOD

Instead of focusing purely on the threat, he also stressed how plans to buy weapons and build arms factories will create jobs and economic growth.

In a sign of the government’s priorities, job creation is typically the top line of any Ministry of Defence press release about its latest investment in missiles, drones and warships rather than why the equipment is vital to defend the nation.

I doubt expanding employment opportunities was the motivating factor in the 1930s when the UK converted car factories into Spitfire production lines to prepare for war with Nazi Germany.

Yet communicating to the public what war readiness really means must surely be just as important today.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. Pic: Reuters

Mr Healey also chose this moment of national peril to attempt to score political points by criticising the previous Conservative government for hollowing out the armed forces – when the military was left in a similarly underfunded state during the last Labour government.

A report by a group of MPs, released on the same day as Mr Healey rattled his sabre at Russia, underlined the scale of the challenge the UK faces.

HMS Somerset flanking Russian ship Yantar near UK waters. on January 22, 2025.
File pic: Royal Navy/PA
Image:
HMS Somerset flanking Russian ship Yantar near UK waters. on January 22, 2025.
File pic: Royal Navy/PA

It accused the government of lacking a national plan to defend itself from attack.

The Defence Select Committee also warned that Mr Healey, Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet are moving at a “glacial” pace to fix the problem and are failing to launch a “national conversation on defence and security” – something the prime minister had promised last year.

The report backed up the findings of a wargame podcast by Sky News and Tortoise that simulated what might happen if Russia launched waves of missile strikes against the UK.

The series showed how successive defence cuts since the end of the Cold War means the army, navy and air force are woefully equipped to defend the home front.

Read more:
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Briton who volunteered as spy for Russia jailed

But credible national defences also require the wider country to be prepared for war.

A set of plans setting out what must happen in the transition from peace to war was quietly shelved at the start of this century, so there no longer exists a rehearsed and resourced system to ensure local authorities, businesses and the wider population know what to do.

John Healey.
Pic: PA
Image:
John Healey.
Pic: PA

Mr Healey revealed that the Russian spy ship had directed a laser light presumably to dazzle pilots of a Royal Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that was tracking it.

“That Russian action is deeply dangerous,” he said.

“So, my message to Russia and to Putin, is this: We see you. We know what you are doing. And if Yantar travels south this week, we are ready.”

He did not spell out what this might mean but it could include attempts to block the Russian vessel’s passage, or even fire warning shots to force it to retreat.

The Russian ship Yantar is docked in Buenos Aires in 2017
Pic: David Fernandez/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Image:
The Russian ship Yantar is docked in Buenos Aires in 2017
Pic: David Fernandez/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

However, any direct engagement could trigger a retaliation from Moscow.

For now, the Russian ship – fitted with spying equipment to monitor critical national infrastructure such as communications cables on the seabed – has moved away from the UK coast. It was at its closest between 5 and 11 November.

The military is still tracking its movements closely in case the ship returns.

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Why Zelenskyy has to tread carefully over peace plan, or face a Trump ultimatum

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Why Zelenskyy has to tread carefully over peace plan, or face a Trump ultimatum

If you’re not at the table then you’re on the menu, as the saying goes.

That’s why Ukraine and Europe are so concerned about reports of a new peace plan being drawn up without them.

Their fears appear to be well-founded. The plan’s proposals reportedly include two major concessions for Kyiv – that it must give up territory in the Donbas which Russia has not yet seized, and that it must dramatically reduce its armed forces.

Ukraine war latest: Trump ‘approves 28-point Ukraine peace plan’

Sound familiar? That’s because it is. These are two of Vladimir Putin’s long-held, key demands for peace.

The ‘new’ peace plan represents the latest about-turn from the Trump administration on how it approaches the conflict.

After the failure of the Alaska summit, and last month’s fractious phone call between Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and US secretary of state Marco Rubio (which led to the cancellation of a second summit in Budapest and US sanctions on Russian oil), it seemed like Ukraine had finally convinced Donald Trump to change tack.

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Donald Trump meeting Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August. Pic: AP
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Donald Trump meeting Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August. Pic: AP

Instead of showing Moscow patience, he began applying pressure in the hope of forcing Russia to make concessions and to meet Ukraine somewhere in the middle.

But now it’s all change once again.

The key player seems to have been Kirill Dmitriev – the Kremlin’s investment envoy and a close ally of Vladimir Putin – who has operated as Steve Witkoff’s opposite number in peace negotiations.

(l-r) Kirill Dmitriev and special envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg in April 2025. Pic: Kremlin Pool Photo/AP
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(l-r) Kirill Dmitriev and special envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg in April 2025. Pic: Kremlin Pool Photo/AP

Whenever the US special envoy has been in Moscow this year, Dmitriev has always been close by. He is Putin’s Witkoff whisperer.

After the Lavrov-Rubio bust-up, Dmitriev was sent to Miami to supposedly patch things up through Witkoff. He did more than, it seems.

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Cheat Sheet: Russian spy ship and secret Ukraine peace deal

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Witkoff’s ‘secret’ plan to end war
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What’s reportedly emerged from their discussions is a 28-point peace plan that has been signed off by Donald Trump.

Will Ukraine go for it? I very much doubt it.

If the reports are correct, the US-Russia proposals merely represent the Kremlin’s long-held demands, and Ukraine’s long-held red lines. For Kyiv, it’s a non-starter.

But President Zelenskyy will have to tread carefully. Failure to show engagement could rile Donald Trump and trigger an ultimatum – accept this plan or you’re on your own.

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Nearly 1,000 evacuated as erupting Indonesian volcano covers villages with hot ash

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Nearly 1,000 evacuated as erupting Indonesian volcano covers villages with hot ash

Nearly 1,000 people from three villages on the Indonesian island of Java have been forced to flee to shelters after the eruption of its highest volcano.

More than 170 people, including climbers, porters, guides, tourism officials and tourists, were rescued after Mount Semeru erupted on Wednesday.

No casualties have been reported during the evacuation of those most at risk in the district of Lumajang, according to Indonesia‘s disaster mitigation agency.

The eruption sent searing clouds of hot ash and a mixture of rock, lava and gas up to eight miles (13km) down the volcano’s slopes, officials said.

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

They had set out to climb the 3,676m (12,060ft) peak on Wednesday and were stranded at the Ranu Kumbolo camping area before being taken to safety, Priatin Hadi Wijaya, head of the Centre for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation, told reporters.

Hetty Triastuty, from the centre, warned climbers may have been exposed to volcanic ash.

A thick column of hot clouds rose 1.2 miles (2km) into the air during the eruptions, from midday to dusk on Wednesday, as scientists raised the volcano’s alert to the highest level, Indonesia’s geology agency chief Muhammad Wafid said.

People were forced to leave their homes. Pic: AP
Image:
People were forced to leave their homes. Pic: AP

The eruptions that unfolded throughout the day blanketed several villages with thick volcanic ash and blocked out sunlight. Local media reported that two motorcyclists crashed due to hot ash on a bridge, resulting in severe burns to their bodies.

A series of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), defined by the British Geological Survey as “hot, ground-hugging flows of ash and debris” capable of moving at hundreds of metres per second, travelled down the mountain’s southern slope through the Besuk Kobokan River valley slopes, Mr Wafid said.

“Mount Semeru’s seismicity activity indicated that the eruption continued at a high level, with increasing numbers of signals indicating avalanches,” he added.

Mr Wafid warned people to keep away from an area along the Besuk Kobokan River, which is the path of the lava flow, adding that the five-mile (8km) danger zone may be expanded.

Seismic activity suggests the eruption will continue, officials said.

Mount Semeru, also known as Mahameru, has erupted numerous times in the past 200 years. But as with many of Indonesia’s 129 active volcanoes, tens of thousands of people continue to live nearby.

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A total of 51 people died after Semeru’s last major eruption in December 2021, while several hundred others were burned in villages that were buried in layers of mud and more than 10,000 people were forced to flee their homes.

The Indonesian archipelago sits along the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” a horseshoe-shaped series of fault lines, and is prone to earthquakes and volcanic activity.

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