The pictures from Beirut are unnerving to say the least, the predictions for the immediate future even more so.

With the dust still settling from this game-changing assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, there are pressing questions crying out for answers.

Most of all, is the Middle East about to erupt into a regional conflict that threatens us all? That’s been the warning for almost a year, so is it about to happen?

Not if America and its allies can help it.

Follow latest: Iran warns Israel will ‘regret their actions’

Hezbollah is a designated terrorist organisation for the US, UK and other Western nations. It has killed hundreds of their citizens over the years.

There is no doubt President Joe Biden has felt what he called a “measure of justice” that Nasrallah has been killed.

But there is also a fear of what comes next. From the president down we are hearing urgent calls for de-escalation and a diplomatic solution. And the US has rushed military assets to ward off Hezbollah’s patrons in Iran doing their worst. But will that be enough?

US-led diplomacy to contain the Middle East crisis has failed.

A senior Middle Eastern diplomat told Sky News the assassination is a kick in the teeth for the US president.

“For all the bombs and billions he has given the Israelis,” he said, “the least they could have done for him in the last weeks of his presidency was a ceasefire in the region”.

With diplomacy stalled, what happens next depends on both Iran and Israel.

For its part, Iran may feel it has no alternative but to weigh in. It may fear the massive missile arsenal it supplied is so jeopardised it must intervene and save Hezbollah.

Iranians have long regarded Hezbollah as an insurance policy for the day Israel might attack Iran itself. If it sees its ally close to total collapse, might it then weigh in?

If it does, Israel’s allies led by America might feel compelled to come to its defence. The full scale war feared for almost a year could engulf the region.

But there are good reasons for Iran not to rush to action.

The Middle East seems a dangerous and unpredictable place but certain rules and assumptions apply, even in all its chaos.

For all their fanaticism, the ayatollahs of Tehran are pragmatic and seek the preservation of their grip on power above all. That has been a rule of the Middle Eastern jungle since they seized power 45 years ago.

Is it pragmatic or wise to up the ante and more directly support Hezbollah, when it is at its weakest? The Iranian regime is not that strong either, crippled economically by sanctions and mismanagement, and socially and politically by months of civil unrest, albeit now quashed.

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There are limits too to what Iran could achieve with direct military intervention anyway in a war that is 2,000km from its borders. The Iranians may conclude this round in the war against Israel is over. They think in long time spans, after all. Time to regroup and move on to fight another day?

There will no doubt be days more of sound and fury, like we have seldom seen before. The mourning and funerals of Nasrallah and his lieutenants are likely to be the focus of intense anger and will raise tensions. But what happens afterwards?

That also comes down to Israel.

It may now feel it has the wind in its sails and seize the moment to invade Lebanon on the ground to push Hezbollah back from the border. That would be an extremely dangerous moment too, potentially drawing in supportive militia and Iranian forces based in Syria.

The hills of southern Lebanon are a treacherous country for a military like Israel’s that relies on infantry and tanks. They could be drawn into a lengthy and punishing campaign that could then destabilise the region.

Read more:
Analysis: Hezbollah and Iran must decide to fight or back down
Who was Hassan Nasrallah?

Then there is Lebanon itself. An uneasy compromise between the warring factions of its civil war in the 1970s and 80s has held for decades but its always fragile status quo is now threatened. The chessboard of its multi-denominational politics has potentially been upended by the removal of its most powerful player.

If Lebanon descends back into factional fighting, regional stability will be undermined too.

The Middle East is in grave danger of further escalation. Western and regional diplomats are working round the clock to pull it back from the brink but recent efforts have all ended in failure and neither Israel nor Hezbollah seem to be listening.

Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield has resigned from the Labour Party.

The 53-year-old MP is the first to jump ship since the general election and in her resignation letter criticised the prime minister for accepting thousands of pounds worth of gifts.

She told Sir Keir Starmer the reason for leaving now is “the programme of policies you seem determined to stick to”, despite their unpopularity with the electorate and MPs.

In her letter she accused the prime minister and his top team of “sleaze, nepotism and apparent avarice” which are “off the scale”.

“I’m so ashamed of what you and your inner circle have done to tarnish and humiliate our once proud party,” she said.

Sir Keir has faced backlash after a Sky News report revealed he had received substantially more freebies than any other MP since becoming Labour leader.

Since December 2019, the prime minister received £107,145 in gifts, benefits, and hospitality – a specific category in parliament’s register of MPs’ interests.

Ms Duffield, who has previously clashed with the prime minister on gender issues, attacked the government for pursuing “cruel and unnecessary” policies as she resigned the Labour whip.

Read more:
The Westminster Accounts: Check how much your MP has received

She criticised the decision to keep the two-child benefit cap and means-test the winter fuel payment, and accused the prime minister of “hypocrisy” over his acceptance of free gifts from donors.

“Since the change of government in July, the revelations of hypocrisy have been staggering and increasingly outrageous,” she said.

“I cannot put into words how angry I and my colleagues are at your total lack of understanding about how you have made us all appear.”

Ms Duffield also mentioned the recent “treatment of Diane Abbott”, who said she thought she had been barred from standing by Labour ahead of the general election, before Sir Keir said she would be allowed to defend her Hackney North and Stoke Newington seat for the party.

Her relationship with the Labour leadership has long been strained and her decision to quit the party comes after seven other Labour MPs were suspended for rebelling by voting for a motion calling for the two-child benefit cap to be abolished.

“Someone with far-above-average wealth choosing to keep the Conservatives’ two-child limit to benefit payments which entrenches children in poverty, while inexplicably accepting expensive personal gifts of designer suits and glasses costing more than most of those people can grasp – this is entirely undeserving of holding the title of Labour prime minister,” she said.

Ms Duffield said she will continue to represent her constituents as an independent MP, “guided by my core Labour values”.

The King has paid tribute to Scotland as a “uniquely special place” for the Royal Family as he marked the 25th anniversary of the Scottish parliament.

At the ceremony to commemorate a quarter of a century since parliament opened at Holyrood, the King said: “Speaking from a personal perspective, Scotland has always had a uniquely special place in the hearts of my family and myself.

“My beloved grandmother was proudly Scottish, my late mother especially treasured the time spent at Balmoral, and it was there in the most beloved of places, where she chose to spend her final days.”

He said we are all “united by our love of Scotland”, paying tribute to its “natural beauty”, “strength of character”, “diversity of its people”, “passions and frequently deeply held beliefs”.

“From the central belt to the north Highlands, across the islands in Ayrshire, in the Borders, the cities, towns and villages, all the coastal communities, who I wonder, could not fail to be moved by this complex Caledonian kaleidoscope?,” he asked as presiding officer Alison Johnstone and the Queen sat beside him.

After he gave the speech, the King was hugged by a member of the public – who said she did so “because of him being unwell”.

The 75-year-old was diagnosed with cancer in February but has since returned to public duties.

Yvonne Macmillan, 59, from East Renfrewshire, attended the anniversary ceremony with her husband Russell who is registered blind and chosen as a “local hero” for work in their area.

“I asked him if he was feeling better and if I could give him a hug. I actually said to him: ‘Can I hug you?’,” she said.

“As I hugged him I said, ‘God bless you’, so it was like God giving him a hug.”

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While Sir Tony Blair’s Labour government legislated for Scottish devolution in 1997 – parliament officially opened at Holyrood on 1 July 1999.

The King has made six visits to the parliament since 1999 – while his mother Queen Elizabeth II made 10 visits during her lifetime.

Scottish First Minister John Swinney is one of a number of MSPs who have been at Holyrood since the start of devolution.

He said in his own speech in Edinburgh on Saturday that the parliament has “placed itself at the very heart of the nation”, describing it as a “vessel of enlightenment, invention and creativity”.

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The SNP’s Christine Grahame is another MSP who has been there since the start.

“Free tuition, free prescriptions, game-changing policies to tackle child poverty, the ban on smoking, the baby box, ScotRail back in public ownership – none of this would have been possible without the Scottish parliament and the strength of our commitment to self-determination,” she said on Saturday.

The King said the devolved parliament has the ability to “touch and to improve the lives of so many individuals”.

But he added that “there remains much more to be done” for Scotland, the rest of the UK, particularly with regards to climate change.

“Let this moment therefore be the beginning of the next chapter,” he told those assembled.

“The achievement of the past and the commitment shown in the present give us the soundest basis for confidence in the future.”