Interest rate cut is not far off – but there are complicating factors

Published

8 months ago

May 9, 2024

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How soon is too soon?

That’s the question exercising members of the Bank of England‘s monetary policy committee (MPC) at the moment. All nine members know that interest rates, currently at 5.25%, will have to be cut in the coming months.

After all, high interest rates represent a brake on the economy and it’s becoming clear that keeping the brake pedal down is causing economic pain.

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Unemployment is beginning to rise; the strength of consumer demand is dropping and, most of all, inflation is coming down too.

For Bank insiders, the fact that the rate at which the consumer price index is rising each year is about (at least according to their forecasts) to hit 2% is a mark of success.

Not long ago, as prices rose at the fastest rate in decades, many in the City wondered whether the Bank might have lost control of inflation – which it is supposed to keep as close as possible to 2%.

While the indicator’s fall is partly down to the volatility of energy prices (having been the main force lifting prices in recent years, they are now the main force depressing them), what gives the Bank’s policymakers hope is that while CPI inflation is expected to bounce back slightly in the coming months, their forecast suggests it will not exceed 3%.

The upshot is that inside the Bank there are some who are now whispering quietly that they might have succeeded – inflation might have been tamed.

But that brings us back to that question: if inflation is tamed then there’s no need to have interest rates so high, so how soon should they be cut?

Complicating factors is what’s happening on the other side of the Atlantic, where the Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, has committed something of a U-turn.

Having guided investors and economists a few years ago that an interest rate cut was coming soon, the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, has more lately hinted that no cut was coming anytime soon.

And since America usually leads the way on interest rates, that raises an unnerving question: can the UK really begin cutting rates so long before the Federal Reserve?

The Bank’s internal assessment is quite simply that the British economy is in a very different place to America. The US is growing very strongly indeed, partly thanks to large federal spending programmes pumping cash into green tech and semiconductor manufacturing.

There is nothing analogous in the UK, whose economy is expected to grow by 0.9% over the next 12 months or so.

That’s an upgrade on the previous 0.6% forecast, but is only a fraction of the 2%+ growth enjoyed in the US.

In the coming weeks, we’re expecting an unusually important set of economic numbers. Inflation data for April is expected to show a big fall, down to 2%. There are some jobs data and, of course, tomorrow we learn whether the UK has bounced out of its current recession (it almost certainly has).

In the end, this data is what will determine whether the MPC is bold enough to cut rates in June or in August (or, if the data shows an unexpected increase in inflation, to put those cuts off for longer).

So it’s a waiting game. But it looks like there’s not that much longer to wait.

Business

Basic questions unanswered by Shein at Business and Trade Committee despite firm eyeing London listing

Published

2 hours ago

January 8, 2025

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Basic questions unanswered by Shein at Business and Trade Committee despite firm eyeing London listing

A representative for one of the world’s biggest fast fashion retailers, Shein was unable to answer questions from MPs over where it sources its cotton from.

Shein’s general counsel for Europe Middle East Africa (EMEA) Yinan Zhu was asked if the company sells products containing cotton from China, mainly the region of Xinjiang, where China has been accused of subjecting members of the Uyghur ethnic group to forced labour.

Speaking at the Business and Trade Committee, Ms Zhu was asked several times whether the company uses cotton supplied from China.

After being pressed on the matter, she said she would have to write to the committee with an answer.

She said: “For detailed operational information and other aspects, I am not able to assist. I will have to write back to the committee afterwards.”

She added: “Obviously, we comply with laws and regulations everywhere we do business in the role. And we have supplier code of conducts, we have robust systems and procedures in place and policies in place.

“We also have very strong enforcement measures in place to ensure we adhere to these standards that are expected in our supply chain.”

When asked if the company believed forced labour took place in Xinjiang, Ms Zhu reminded MPs of the “agenda of the committee, as I understand it, we’re looking at upholding standards”, before adding: “I’m only able to answer the questions that are relating to our business.”

Shein was founded in China in 2012 and is now a leader in fast fashion, shipping to 150 countries.

Committee chairman Liam Byrne challenged Ms Zhu, but she repeated she would have to write to the committee afterwards.

Mr Byrne said the parliamentary committee was “horrified” by the lack of information provided and said Zhu’s statements gave lawmakers “zero confidence” in the integrity of Shein’s supply chains.

“The reluctance to answer basic questions has frankly bordered on contempt,” Mr Byrne said.

The top lawyer’s responses were said to be “ridiculous” and “very unhelpful and disrespectful” by committee member Charlie Maynard.

When Ms Zhu said she was answering to the best of her ability, the Lib Dem MP said: “That is simply not true. We’ve asked you some very, very, very simple questions and you are not giving us straight answers.”

Ms Zhu also said she was unable to say anything about reports the online giant was preparing to list as a public company on the London Stock Exchange.

Sky News reported exclusively in June that Shein had prepared to file a prospectus with the Financial Conduct Authority for approval ahead of a potential float on the exchange.

But when asked on Tuesday if this was true, and why the company had stopped pursuing a New York Stock Exchange float, Ms Zhu said she was unable to comment on any IPO (initial public offering) speculation as it was not her remit.

Business

UK long-term borrowing costs highest this century

Published

11 hours ago

January 7, 2025

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UK long-term borrowing costs highest this century

UK long-term borrowing costs have hit their highest level since 1998.

The unwanted milestone for the Treasury’s coffers was reached ahead of an auction of 30-year bonds, known as gilts, this morning.

The yield – the effective interest rate demanded by investors to hold UK public debt – peaked at 5.21%.

At that level, it is even above the yield seen in the wake of the mini-budget backlash of 2022 when financial markets baulked at the Truss government’s growth agenda which contained no independent scrutiny from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

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The premium is up, market analysts say, because of growing concerns the Bank of England will struggle to cut interest rates this year.

Just two cuts are currently priced in for 2025 as investors fear policymakers’ hands could be tied by a growing threat of stagflation.

The jargon essentially covers a scenario when an economy is flatlining at a time of rising unemployment and inflation.

Growth has ground to a halt, official data and private surveys have shown, since the second half of last year.

Critics of the government have accused Sir Keir Starmer and his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, of talking down the economy since taking office in July amid their claims of needing to fix a “£22bn black hole” in the public finances.

Both warned of a tough budget ahead. That first fiscal statement put businesses and the wealthy on the hook for £40bn of tax rises.

Corporate lobby groups have since warned of a hit to investment, pay growth and jobs to help offset the additional costs.

At the same time, consumer spending has remained constrained amid stubborn price growth elements in the economy.

Higher borrowing costs also reflect a rising risk premium globally linked to the looming return of Donald Trump as US president and his threats of universal trade tariffs.

The higher borrowing bill will pose a problem for Ms Reeves as she seeks to borrow more to finance higher public investment and spending.

Tuesday’s auction saw the Debt Management Office sell £2.25bn of 30-year gilts to investors at an average yield of 5.198%.

It was the highest yield for a 30-year gilt since its first auction in May 1998, Refinitiv data showed.

This extra borrowing could mean Ms Reeves is at risk of breaking the spending rules she created for herself, to bring down debt, and so she may have less money to spend, analysts at Capital Economics said.

“There is a significant chance that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will judge that the Chancellor Rachel Reeves is on course to miss her main fiscal rule when it revises its forecasts on 26 March. To maintain fiscal credibility, this may mean that Ms Reeves is forced to tighten fiscal policy further,” said Ruth Gregory, the deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics.